I know! Just one guy! There no pattern at all!
US POLITICS XX: Stuck In a Caucus You Can't Get Out Of
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Yea Biden was performing poorly on the trail well before the word that Bloomberg might hop in started heating up.
Bloomberg was eating into his poll numbers - but Biden's have stabilized a bit since Bloomberg butchered the first hour of his first debate.
Biden needs a win in South Carolina or he needs to bail. Klobuchar should have already bailed. Frankly Bloomberg should bail if he shit's the bed at the debate again.
DaveC
Blue Crack Addict
you know, this highly tedious daily exercise of you being outraged at how racist and sexist bernie bros are being online would carry a whole lot more water if you weren't openly supporting a candidate who has spent decades saying and doing racist and sexist shit himself.
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womanfish
Rock n' Roll Doggie ALL ACCESS
I'm guessing that Biden must have personally stopped by your house and shit in your Cheerios, cause I'm not sure what happened to make you quite so aggressively opposed to him. I'm first to admit that his lack of energy in campaigning and his obvious mediocre debates have caused his problems. But I don't think the spector of Bloomberg, actually saying, he was there as a Biden safety net, helped him.
While I started out with my full support for him, I saw those things and definitely shifted my mind up to other candidates, Warren in particular. But now she's pulling a Biden. So it just all sucks.
But that's not the point of the post. The point is that Bloomberg's stated reason for running, is really contradictory. And as horrible as you say Biden is. He will come out of the first 4 contests with the second most delegates. The candidate that was completely written off by the media the moment after Iowa. Yet Amy and Pete and now Warren are still talked about as contenders. It's laughable.
Like I said, If Bloomberg actually wanted to win this thing. He should have started in NV. But he didn't. Now he's doing a whole lot of polling at about 2nd or 3rd, right along Biden in all the super tuesday states. So instead of letting Biden go for it,he is stepping in, and ensuring they both lose.
There are only two options that will not end in a Bernie victory.
1. Biden crushes South Carolina above expectations. Bloomberg does horrible at debate, and he says that for the good of the race, he is going to step aside and support Biden and Senate races.
2. Biden finishes really poorly in South Carolina. Distant second, close 3rd. And he drops out. He then gives a press conference saying that it's time for all the other candidates to follow his lead and do what's best for the remainder of the race.
My guess is that number two is more likely. But probably neither. My guess, Joe wins by about 1 or 2 points. And... we're fucked. 3 people getting to the convention with probably a couple hundred delegates separating them.
Irvine511
Blue Crack Supplier
In the Town Hall last night, Bernie was asked again how he would pay for his healthcare plan, he didn't really answer and when pushed said "we'll get it paid for" or something to that effect.
Now I fully recognize that the Republicans never explain how they'll pay for any of their shit - the taxes that "pay for themselves" (spoiler alert: they don't), their perennially increasing military budgets and various military excursions/wars (spoiler alert: grow the debt) or the infamous wall that Mexico was going to pay for. There is absolutely a double standard and the media never, ever pushes back on this. So in that sense I sometimes think, the Democrats should just say fuck it and refuse to answer at any level. See for example how Elizabeth Warren was destroyed for having the temerity to put numbers behind her proposals.
But on the other hand, Democratic voters care to know. And I think there is absolutely a need to discuss what can realistically be done vs promising heaven and earth, inevitably failing to deliver which will then render a revolution on the right. We've seen this before in other places - the pendulum swings back hard.
Now I fully recognize that the Republicans never explain how they'll pay for any of their shit - the taxes that "pay for themselves" (spoiler alert: they don't), their perennially increasing military budgets and various military excursions/wars (spoiler alert: grow the debt) or the infamous wall that Mexico was going to pay for. There is absolutely a double standard and the media never, ever pushes back on this. So in that sense I sometimes think, the Democrats should just say fuck it and refuse to answer at any level. See for example how Elizabeth Warren was destroyed for having the temerity to put numbers behind her proposals.
But on the other hand, Democratic voters care to know. And I think there is absolutely a need to discuss what can realistically be done vs promising heaven and earth, inevitably failing to deliver which will then render a revolution on the right. We've seen this before in other places - the pendulum swings back hard.
Irvine511
Blue Crack Supplier
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...him-to-hunt-alaska-grizzly-bear-idUSKCN20G06Y
I’m rooting for the bear.
I’m rooting for the bear.
DaveC
Blue Crack Addict
i so deeply enjoy the irony that it appears that a billionaire entering the race is what's helping bernie sanders immensely.
that said there is definitely another plausible scenario where bernie doesn't win - if he enters the convention without a majority (as is likely) and all of the superdelegates decide to collude and throw all of their votes behind biden or bloomberg. it would be a spectacularly stupid move that would kill the democratic party and would guarantee re-election for trump, but it certainly wouldn't be out of character for the dems to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.
DaveC
Blue Crack Addict
mikal
Blue Crack Addict
The problem is that we should not be taking the approach of "hey I know he killed his own citizens but at least they died being able to read better" approach with world leaders. Even if Bernie "didn't mean it" he has to be more careful with his wording.
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womanfish
Rock n' Roll Doggie ALL ACCESS
Irony noted, as I wrote extensively about last night.
But I also find it ironic that even after the DNC changed to rules to pacify Bernie, and not have super delegates on the first ballot. You're saying that a full on revolt will happen if those rules would be followed. Now that's some irony.
That said. I do think it would be kind of stupid if Bernie has sizeable delegate lead to overturn it.
BUT - Bernie has a part in this too!! I think it's really shitty that he expects that everyone in a party that he doesn't officially belong too, has to play by his rules.
Bernie could and should show some leadership right now.
His best bet? Come out now and say - I know that our big ideas will not be realized unless we have a House and Senate majority. Even then it will be a hard fight. So I'm pledging now, to put (a certain meaningful percentage) of all the money our campaign raises, directly into downballot races, particularly the all important senate races in swing districts across the country. We all have to be united in defeating Trump. And I'm doing this to show my full support in making that happen...
He would 1. Sort of take that mantle away from Bloomberg as the one that will help downticket financially.
2. He gets in better standing with the DNC, so when the second ballot comes, it may well go in his favor.
But if history is any indicator. Bernie is gonna do Bernie. And damn everyone else who doesn't see it his way.
He was asked yesterday about how he was going to help win the Senate. His answer. You guessed it! "We are going to get more young people involved in the political process"
I mean come on guys. Bernie supporters here... Does this shit really fly with you?
This is exactly the case. Democratic voters absolutely care how stuff will be paid for. So do Independents.
The only people who ate up Mexico will pay for it were racists. The rest figured Trump and the GOP would find some other budgets to cut to get it done (wasn't seeing cutting military funding.....)
When I talked to my parents before the Iowa primary, their critiques of both Sanders and Warren were "How are they going to pay for it???" When I bring up that GOP always claim tax cuts will fix everything, and all the wars we get into.....they say they understand that but they don't vote for GOP.
The Media doesn't help this. They hammer Warren/Sanders on paying for their plans, but never once call out the GOP that their tax cuts never once trickle down.
This is a mess and the democrats have themselves to blame.
I know! It's a a riddle, wrapped in a mystery, inside an enigma.
Like supporting a candidate who himself has spent decades publicly supporting murderous regimes and dictators because he likes their reading programs and free health care!
Super tedious.
Seems like we're all willing to overlook things.
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womanfish
Rock n' Roll Doggie ALL ACCESS
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womanfish
Rock n' Roll Doggie ALL ACCESS
Here is a great example of how the media treats Biden vs. Sanders.
Two latest polls in SC.
NBC - Biden 27, Sanders 23
PPP - Biden 36, Sander 21
The media coverage, down to the scrolls at the bottom?
Sanders rises in SC.
Biden and Sanders in a virtual tie in SC...
sigh. Just reiterates my point that Biden has been written off since Iowa and that narrative has been a driver of his performance after that.
Two latest polls in SC.
NBC - Biden 27, Sanders 23
PPP - Biden 36, Sander 21
The media coverage, down to the scrolls at the bottom?
Sanders rises in SC.
Biden and Sanders in a virtual tie in SC...
sigh. Just reiterates my point that Biden has been written off since Iowa and that narrative has been a driver of his performance after that.
DaveC
Blue Crack Addict
hey guys, let's just forget about the fact that the lives of ordinary cubans improved by several orders of magnitude under the castro regime by giving them healthcare and education, and that the american-backed batista regime also killed scores of its own citizens, totally ignored the needs (and existence) of the cuban poor, and literally was a money-laundering scheme for the new york mafia (there's a reason las vegas became las vegas in the 60s), and act like everything fidel castro did was universally evil and bad and nothing he ever did was good or had any beneficial outcome for cubans at all. 
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DaveC
Blue Crack Addict
biden has been the front runner in SC since before he even declared he was in the race. "biden still leading" is really not the headline when someone else is rising in the polls and making it close with less than a week to go.
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Hewson
Blue Crack Supplier
#teamYogi
Now do Nicaragua and the Soviet Union.hey guys, let's just forget about the fact that the lives of ordinary cubans improved by several orders of magnitude under the castro regime by giving them healthcare and education, and that the american-backed batista regime also killed scores of its own citizens, totally ignored the needs (and existence) of the cuban poor, and literally was a money-laundering scheme for the new york mafia (there's a reason las vegas became las vegas in the 60s), and act like everything fidel castro did was universally evil and bad and nothing he ever did was good or had any beneficial outcome for cubans at all.
I kid I kid.
Seriously though... try selling that to purple states in the Midwest. Not Democrats... general electorate..
Hey, ya know... Cuba wasn't all bad, lots of it was our fault.
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Irvine511
Blue Crack Supplier
DaveC
Blue Crack Addict
the soviet union started as a feudal agrarian society made up of landless serfs and aristocrats, had to fight a civil war that killed 10 million and then total war that destroyed literally half their country and killed 15% of the population, and they still managed to put a man in orbit in less than 40 years.
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womanfish
Rock n' Roll Doggie ALL ACCESS
hey guys, let's just forget about the fact that the lives of ordinary cubans improved by several orders of magnitude under the castro regime by giving them healthcare and education, and that the american-backed batista regime also killed scores of its own citizens, totally ignored the needs (and existence) of the cuban poor, and literally was a money-laundering scheme for the new york mafia (there's a reason las vegas became las vegas in the 60s), and act like everything fidel castro did was universally evil and bad and nothing he ever did was good or had any beneficial outcome for cubans at all.
I'm looking forward to this nuanced discussion with everyday Americans who are lucky to know the three branches of our own government. I think Bernie really needs to have a town hall to discuss how Castro had his up sides!
Are you hearing yourself? If this is what Bernie thinks is a good tack to be taking. We are in for a bloodbath.
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womanfish
Rock n' Roll Doggie ALL ACCESS
Biden or Bloomberg would win FL this time around.
DaveC
Blue Crack Addict
i wrote that myself and meant every word of it. it's just a tongue-in-cheek history lesson, not "bernie thinks this is a good tack to be taking" or that he should go out praising fidel castro on the campaign trail. chill.
DaveC
Blue Crack Addict
i love it when people just assert as fact that sanders has no hope of winning a given state without checking any polling at all.
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womanfish
Rock n' Roll Doggie ALL ACCESS
Here's the latest FL polling:
St. Pete Polls 2/18 - 2/19 2412 LV
Bloomberg - 32
Biden - 27
Sanders - 11
This was pre-Castro remarks
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womanfish
Rock n' Roll Doggie ALL ACCESS
I never said you didn't write it. And I don't really care if you believe it or not.
Nuance is not how voters are won over.
And there may be no more true a statement (not sure who said it first)
In politics, if you're explaining, you're losing.
If Bernie is the nominee, he literally just gave a video clip that will most likely be run on about half of Trumps ads
This is really offensive. I am lactose intolerant and haven't eaten cereal in like 40 years.
Except that you said it actively hurt him. Which it didn't. Bloomberg made it very clear back in early 2019 that he would only run if he saw Bernie/some other radical progressive defying the odds and winning the whole thing. The media only really hounded him about it until Biden declared, which was of Biden's own making since he declared relatively late compared to the other front-runners. At that point, Biden was running ahead of the field, polling at about 30-40% and Bloomberg made no attempt to run, nor was he an ongoing media attraction. Then you had Warren start emerging as a real threat and Wall Street panicked because she surged to an early lead in Iowa and NH and even NV. THAT is when Bloomberg got re-engaged, but didn't even enter the race until Bernie's heart and campaign were suddenly revived in the fall.
There is no way that Biden was bleeding any voters to Bloomberg throughout 2019. All of his issues were self-made.
I don't know what media or polls you're following that I'm not but nobody is talking about Amy Klobuchar or Elizabeth Warren as real contenders anymore. Pete is a bit more unpredictable so maybe he's still hanging on.
I have nothing personal against Joe Biden. I have a lot personally against Donald Trump. And I don't think that Joe Biden can beat Trump.
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