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Old 02-09-2020, 01:01 PM   #181
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Best idea for Democratic primaries going forward. First - NO caucuses.
Second, the first 4 states in the primary every cycle, are the 4 states that had the lowest margin of vote total from the prior presidential election. That would mean this year it would be Michigan, NH, Wisconsin and Florida. That's a decent mix to have before super tuesday.

And why not have a First Choice Tuesday. and have all those 4 states vote on the same day? This way you not only get a representative group of states, but you get to hear who voters actually want, without the bent filter of who won the first one or two...
Just a thought.
i like this idea. at the very least it shouldn't always be the same four states setting the early trends every cycle.
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Old 02-09-2020, 02:14 PM   #182
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I feel like NH polls are volatile. Remember in 2008 when HRC stunned Obama in NH?

It’s a lot of very cold white people. They can do anything.
LOL. That is very true.

It's definitely going to be an interesting result. And it could mean even a more mixed result than Iowa.
I think people are forgetting what lies ahead. Vote for pete, vote for Amy. But then what? They both have limited ground games not just in the next two states, but they have very little in super tuesday states. The shitty part is that both those candidates suck votes away from Biden, who has (or at least did have) a broad base of support in all the remaining states, before these 2 first states kick him in the ass.

The thing that bothers me even more about this, is that we have these two "camps" that people talk about - progressive vs. moderate. The truth I think is that a lot of people fall in the middle of those two camps, but that aside.

If you add up the support of the "progressive" candidates vs. the moderate ones, you see that support for moderate candidates is higher by quite a large margin. I'm giving Yang to the progressive side and not including Gabbard for either side, cause well.... fuck her.

Nationally 53 - 40
New Hampshire 55 - 42
NV 41 - 33
SC 58 - 30

Moderate support ranges from 8 - 28 points higher.
I think that was also made clear in the 2018 midterms.

But because the primaries are set up this way, we could be putting up a candidate that has weaker support in the party at large.
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Old 02-09-2020, 02:40 PM   #183
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I feel like NH polls are volatile. Remember in 2008 when HRC stunned Obama in NH?

It’s a lot of very cold white people. They can do anything.


Do you mean untrustworthy? They’ve seemed incredibly stable in terms of their near election predictions of 1-2-3-4-5 Sanders-Buttigieg-Warren-Biden/Klobuchar.
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Old 02-09-2020, 03:30 PM   #184
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Here's the thing. Republicans, who ironically preach self-reliance and rule of law etc..., are the party of victims. They are always ready to blame some other group of people for the ills of the world, or their personal struggles.
So just as the republican party was beginning to wake up and realize that their older, white, wealthy guy base was not going to sustain itself much longer, they started making efforts to appeal to Latino voters. This was back in the Bush years and into Obama's terms. Jeb and his spanish, setting up Rubio as the "future of the party" Alberto Gonzoles as Attorney General, creating outreach programs, etc...

But then came their glowing orange god, descending from Heave... I mean the second floor, on an escalator. We all know the story, yadda, yadda, yadda, he becomes president.

Now, the party of victims has found the ultimate leader. The constant victim of all things. Donald, The Marmalade Molester, Trump.
He whips the victims into a frothy fury, as he tells them that Mexicans and South Americans are the cause of their problems. The media is the enemy. your enemy, they are lying to you, whatever you see from the media is fake because they are against me and you and we are their victims.

Marches in streets with hordes of pasty white victims with guns and torches. Chanting about Jews and African Americans. And who stands by these victims side? The Golden Blob. There to assure all neo-nazi fucksticks that they are indeed very fine people.

This opens up the floodgates of all those racists, that had been bottling it up as best they could for so long. We all know them. It's your uncle, or your mom, or brother. Sure they would say things like "Those people" or "why can't the blacks just help themselves?"

But now - freedom! The racists. The poor victims of political correctness, and affirmative action, bi-racial marriage and black folks moving into their neighborhood, had finally been given the freedom to be the assholes they are and it felt so good!

The leader of the victims could no wrong. He was so strong and would protect them from the evil brown intruders with huge steel walls. The best walls. And they were gonna pay for it. He protects us from the liberals and the media and the war on Christmas and baby killers, he tells us its ok to hate.

The GOP had the chance and even started to move to be a more inclusive party, but was sidelined along the way. Sure, Trump has been a disaster for our country. Never in my wildest dreams could I have imagined it would be this bad when i thought about it 3 years ago. But what they don't understand is that Trump has just dramatically shortened the life of the party. They could have shifted course and built a new, younger, more inclusive party. But Trump was too tempting, too freeing, spoke to them too clearly in a way they waited so long to hear.
But now, as baby boomers head to the great beyond, and our country becomes more diverse by the month. There will come a tipping point. Most likely in this decade, where the party as it exists now will die.
Once TX is blue, and GA is blue and AZ is blue, and FL is dependably blue. The game is over. And they will have Trump, and their victimhood to thank.
I’m not even a Republican, I’m an independent, but I am conservative, but this lengthy diatribe does nothing but show how narrow minded and uninformed you are about not only history, but also the Republican and Democratic Party.

The Democratic Party is the party of slavery, the party of Jim Crow, the party of segregation, the party of the KKK, and the party of perpetuating the victim mentality. To the Democratic Party, women are victims, minorities are victims, every intersectional group you can think of are victims, or so the Democrats say.

Conservatives value everyone being viewed based on their ideas, not their gender , skin color, nationality, etc.

You, like most Democrats, are obsessed with identity politics, twisting yourself into a pretzel to mention race, nationality, gender, etc as every reason for someone u like not getting their way.

Yes, the party of racism (Democratic) STILL demonstrate this view by constantly lumping “the black community “ , or “brown people” as victims who need the heroic government to help with every aspect of their lives because “they can’t do it on their own”. That’s a soft bigotry that many people of color are noticing and getting tired of.

I apologize for the length of this, and most of the ignorant nonsense that this thread is, I usually just read for laughs, but this post was so completely ignorant I just had to jump in.
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Old 02-09-2020, 03:31 PM   #185
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Do you mean untrustworthy? They’ve seemed incredibly stable in terms of their near election predictions of 1-2-3-4-5 Sanders-Buttigieg-Warren-Biden/Klobuchar.


Unpredictable might be better.
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Old 02-09-2020, 03:39 PM   #186
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Do you mean untrustworthy? They’ve seemed incredibly stable in terms of their near election predictions of 1-2-3-4-5 Sanders-Buttigieg-Warren-Biden/Klobuchar.
I'm not sure what you mean...

NH - now - Sanders, Pete, Warren, Amy, Biden (Bloomberg)
Nationally - Biden, Sanders, Warren, (Bloomberg) Pete, Amy

In a way it's almost backwards

And NH's history is not great.

2000 Mccain won, 2008 Clinton won, 2016 Sanders won. None were the Nominee.
The one nominee they got right was Kerry and he didn't win the general.

A latest poll I just saw put Amy in third! Which would put Biden, the national front runner in last place in NH
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Old 02-09-2020, 04:11 PM   #187
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I'm not sure what you mean...



NH - now - Sanders, Pete, Warren, Amy, Biden (Bloomberg)

Nationally - Biden, Sanders, Warren, (Bloomberg) Pete, Amy



In a way it's almost backwards



And NH's history is not great.



2000 Mccain won, 2008 Clinton won, 2016 Sanders won. None were the Nominee.

The one nominee they got right was Kerry and he didn't win the general.



A latest poll I just saw put Amy in third! Which would put Biden, the national front runner in last place in NH


He literally said New Hampshire polls. National polls have nothing to do with this. National polls are entirely irrelevant. Statistical forecasts have Sanders as the clear front runner now at a near 50% likelihood to be the nominee, with the second most likely outcome to be a brokered convention at 25%. All despite Biden with a clear national favorite.
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Old 02-09-2020, 04:26 PM   #188
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The Democratic Party is the party of slavery, the party of Jim Crow, the party of segregation, the party of the KKK, and the party of perpetuating the victim mentality. To the Democratic Party, women are victims, minorities are victims, every intersectional group you can think of are victims, or so the Democrats say.

Wow, you live in an alternate reality. Are you talking about the late 1800's? You don't know your history friend, You live in history I guess. Just highlighting more victim mentallity Those Democrats 90 years ago were the problem! NOT the Repub party of this century , especially this last decade which have solidly gotten in the corner of white Supremacists and neo-nazi's, gaining valuable endorsements from the KKK.

Then you completely ignore history and say that Dems treat women and people of color as victims. Guess what. They HAVE been victims of centuries of disenfranchisement and policies made by white men, that have left them without the same opportunities as their white male counterparts. Some of these things still exist and effect the every day lives of women and people of color. Obviously starting in the 50's and 60's these groups rose up and stood up to this bullshit and have been making progress every year.
Democrats celebrate and encourage strong women, and empowered people of color, while Repubs wish to "go back to the good ol' days"


Conservatives value everyone being viewed based on their ideas, not their gender , skin color, nationality, etc.

Probably the most insane statement ever uttered.

You, like most Democrats, are obsessed with identity politics, twisting yourself into a pretzel to mention race, nationality, gender, etc as every reason for someone u like not getting their way.

Please tell me how pointing out that republicans are whiny, racist victims is me being obsessed with identity politics?
Trump is the king of identity politics.
Mexicans are drug dealers and rapists. Black people are so bad off they have nothing to lose. Immigrants are animals invading our country, gay people are, well, ignored. (maybe prayed for) Women are there to support their husbands and be quiet in the boardroom.

Democrats focus on groups of people to actually focus on their individual experiences and needs. Shocker, gay people actually do have different and unique issues that are important to them then straight people, older than younger, black than Latino, male, female or transgender. This isn't "identity politics" It's having a party actually recognize that these are humans. That they matter and their issues and concerns matter.

Repubs work for white men. That's it. And every other group needs to be like them, think like them, worship like them, love like them, talk like them or they are shit of luck.


Yes, the party of racism (Democratic) STILL demonstrate this view by constantly lumping “the black community “ , or “brown people” as victims who need the heroic government to help with every aspect of their lives because “they can’t do it on their own”. That’s a soft bigotry that many people of color are noticing and getting tired of.

Oh yeah, Democrats are the party of racism. Do you mean the Democratic party where 51 of out 52 of the African American House Members are Democrats?
One Republican who is on his way out the door.
Or the party that black voters cast their ballot for by 92%?
Is that the racist party you speak of?

Wait for it. You're going to say, well black people only vote Democratic because they want things from them, because they've been trained to be victims.
You do realize that you are saying that a whole group of people are too stupid, and incapable of practical thought right? But please go on about identity and racism.

Can you actually give any real examples of how Democrats think that people of color are people that need to be saved? Or is this just some bullshit you are regurgitating from right wing talkers that try to stir up hate by lying to you? "and they're getting tired of it" Oh man. Did your black friend tell you that? Just incredible loads of bullshit that must rattle around in your rotten skull.


I apologize for the length of this, and most of the ignorant nonsense that this thread is, I usually just read for laughs, but this post was so completely ignorant I just had to jump in.

No, No, thank you for the length of your post. Every word you write just shows your absolute perverse and uninformed life view.

Have a happy and a healthy
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Old 02-09-2020, 04:30 PM   #189
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https://twitter.com/therickwilson/st...619382785?s=21
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Old 02-09-2020, 04:32 PM   #190
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https://twitter.com/politicsinsider/...429589508?s=21

Still need the 2020 version of Jill Stein....
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Old 02-09-2020, 04:36 PM   #191
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I’m not even a Republican, I’m an independent
"i'm not even a republican (i just think their opponents are pure-evil racist socialist-facist-communazi slavers and i vote GOP in every single race in every single election), i'm an independent"
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Old 02-09-2020, 04:55 PM   #192
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He literally said New Hampshire polls. National polls have nothing to do with this. National polls are entirely irrelevant. Statistical forecasts have Sanders as the clear front runner now at a near 50% likelihood to be the nominee, with the second most likely outcome to be a brokered convention at 25%. All despite Biden with a clear national favorite.
I think i misunderstood your post. I thought you were saying NH was lining up with national polling meaning they weren't all that unpredictable.

That said. The reason that forecasts are saying what they are saying only highlights this absolutely bullshit primary process.

Imagine if things started off with super tuesday, Of even if the first 4 states went, SC, NV, Iowa , NH? The standings right now would be drastically different. And I would wager that they would almost mirror the national polls.

And I contend that National Polls are actually the most relevant because they are getting a full snapshot of the electorate.
That would be 72% white, not 94%.
holding iowa and NH first only serves to give advantages to candidates that don't represent the country as a whole or won't do as well in the general . I can't see how the DNC doesn't realize that this is hurting their chances.

And to get back to NH, I think they are unpredictable because they have so many Independents there, and 40% are still undecided 2 days away. It's kinda crazy.
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Old 02-09-2020, 04:57 PM   #193
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"i'm not even a republican (i just think their opponents are pure-evil racist socialist-facist-communazi slavers and i vote GOP in every single race in every single election), i'm an independent"
I really like this post a lot.
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Old 02-09-2020, 05:34 PM   #194
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This about sums it up. Democrats and the media (even left leaning) are their own worst enemies.

https://twitter.com/ManlnTheHoody/st...91735982198784
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Old 02-09-2020, 05:44 PM   #195
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I think i misunderstood your post. I thought you were saying NH was lining up with national polling meaning they weren't all that unpredictable.



That said. The reason that forecasts are saying what they are saying only highlights this absolutely bullshit primary process.



Imagine if things started off with super tuesday, Of even if the first 4 states went, SC, NV, Iowa , NH? The standings right now would be drastically different. And I would wager that they would almost mirror the national polls.



And I contend that National Polls are actually the most relevant because they are getting a full snapshot of the electorate.

That would be 72% white, not 94%.

holding iowa and NH first only serves to give advantages to candidates that don't represent the country as a whole or won't do as well in the general . I can't see how the DNC doesn't realize that this is hurting their chances.



And to get back to NH, I think they are unpredictable because they have so many Independents there, and 40% are still undecided 2 days away. It's kinda crazy.


I think they should have regional rolling elections over the course of a month. Four super Tuesdays, and each region gets to rotate over who goes first each election.
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Old 02-09-2020, 05:52 PM   #196
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The Democratic Party is the party of slavery, the party of Jim Crow, the party of segregation, the party of the KKK
Yes, at one time they were that party. Now they're currently the party who gave us our first black president, and who currently has a significantly more diverse group of supporters from all backgrounds, and whose platform continues to be more and more inclusive to people of all stripes.

You know, just like how the GOP was the party of Lincoln, who freed the slaves, but is now currently the party that neo-Nazis and white supremacists are flocking to, whose leader was endorsed by a member of the KKK, and whose supporters go around talking about how oh-so-patriotic they are while simultaneously waving the flags of the Confederacy (you know, that very thing that Lincoln was fighting against during his time as president?).

It's almost like parties change as the centuries go on! One's moving forward (not without its issues along the way, mind, but still, it is significantly more progressive a party than it used to be) and one is moving us all back to the Dark Ages.

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Conservatives value everyone being viewed based on their ideas, not their gender , skin color, nationality, etc.
Oh, wow. That's a good one right there, that is.

As for your claims that the Democrats love to play the victim, do me a favor: go watch a few of Trump's speeches and then get back to me about people playing victim.
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Old 02-09-2020, 07:19 PM   #197
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The Iowa Democratic Party late Sunday released a statement projecting that Pete Buttigieg would win 14 delegates to the national nominating convention and that Bernie Sanders would win 12. The announcement comes after a week of counting by state party officials, who have come under fire for their handling of the caucuses.
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Old 02-09-2020, 07:29 PM   #198
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The Iowa Democratic Party late Sunday released a statement projecting that Pete Buttigieg would win 14 delegates to the national nominating convention and that Bernie Sanders would win 12. The announcement comes after a week of counting by state party officials, who have come under fire for their handling of the caucuses.


Uh oh. Bernie bros are going to riot!
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Old 02-09-2020, 07:34 PM   #199
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The Iowa Democratic Party late Sunday released a statement projecting that Pete Buttigieg would win 14 delegates to the national nominating convention and that Bernie Sanders would win 12. The announcement comes after a week of counting by state party officials, who have come under fire for their handling of the caucuses.
cue Bernieland meltdown...
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Old 02-09-2020, 07:37 PM   #200
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Yeah haha libtards
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