Unemployment rate jumps from 7.7% to 8.9% in 30 days

[Irvine511]

Originally Posted by Aygo

1,2% in only one month? Who buys that?
Not even in Greece and Spain, the countries where the unemployment rate is still running up the hills, it happens with such speed...

Yet, I don't know if that phenomenon exists in the US, but in many European countries, the summer months is the time where every single governments screams to the world that the unemployment rate fell... What they forget to say is that it's because of seasonal jobs because of tourism activity (which leads to the big jump of that rate again in September/October).

Agreed. This 8.9% is crap. Lets wait for the official BLS data that comes out every month and has showed a slow but steady drop.

The US economy continues to slowly but surely improve.

[AEON]

Originally Posted by U2DMfan

I've said it before, I'll say it again. Our problems do not end, but they certainly BEGIN with two things. 1) Term limits and 2) Campaign finance and lobby/special interest reform (hand in hand), really.

I agree to this - but how do you get congressmen to vote themselves out of office and limit contributions to their own campaigns?

[AEON]

Originally Posted by Aygo

1,2% in only one month? Who buys that?

It could be bogus. Then again, so are the official numbers anyway.

[U2DMfan]

Originally Posted by AEON

I agree to this - but how do you get congressmen to vote themselves out of office and limit contributions to their own campaigns?

You basically don't. Hence, dysfunctional American government.

But seriously, my idea is for a Term Limits pledge, ala American for Tax Reform.
If they don't support it or if they are responsible for shelving it in a subcommittee, etc. or if they actually vote against it, they get primaried. And nobody votes for anyone, liberal, conservative (etc.) that doesn't support it.

But all the R/D power brokers would be against it. And so it would be very tough to do anything short of a grass roots campaign.

The shortest answer is - a more enlightened base of voters.
I won't hold my breath. We had a long conversation about this during your hiatus, maybe a year or two ago. As silly as it sounds, it wouldn't hurt for some celebrities to get on the train and try to make it into a 'trend'. Some kind of way to get the issue back on the front burner.

Term limits helps the finance issue exponentially. Pols voting for their constituents best interests instead of being ever-fearful of losing their own elections? Hell, they'll care less about raising funds just by default. It all begins with that desire to stay in office at all costs. Plausibly denied, continually as "well, we can't surrender this seat to the other party". Or that term limits would expunge all the best members of congress. I don't buy that.
It's personal ambition. Greed for power.

People see this as cynical but it's the truth. It's how 90% of people favor background checks on firearm purchases and NOTHING gets done. Fearful politicians worried about staying in office. And it really IS that simple to some extent. It's complicated overall but that one issue is a such a pristine example of our problems. You don't need a tin foil hat to see it.

[Kieran McConville]

Originally Posted by Aygo

1,2% in only one month? Who buys that?
Not even in Greece and Spain, the countries where the unemployment rate is still running up the hills, it happens with such speed...

Yet, I don't know if that phenomenon exists in the US, but in many European countries, the summer months is the time where every single governments screams to the world that the unemployment rate fell... What they forget to say is that it's because of seasonal jobs because of tourism activity (which leads to the big jump of that rate again in September/October).

It's probably a seasonally adjusted figure. I deliberately didn't reply to that aspect of the thread as it immediately struck me as dodgy, just in itself.

[AEON]

Originally Posted by Kieran McConville

It's probably a seasonally adjusted figure. I deliberately didn't reply to that aspect of the thread as it immediately struck me as dodgy, just in itself.

Do you think the official numbers are a useful gauge? I'm not fishing, simply curious to hear it from you.

[AEON]

Originally Posted by U2DMfan

You basically don't. Hence, dysfunctional American government.

But seriously, my idea is for a Term Limits pledge, ala American for Tax Reform.
If they don't support it or if they are responsible for shelving it in a subcommittee, etc. or if they actually vote against it, they get primaried. And nobody votes for anyone, liberal, conservative (etc.) that doesn't support it.

But all the R/D power brokers would be against it. And so it would be very tough to do anything short of a grass roots campaign.

The shortest answer is - a more enlightened base of voters.
I won't hold my breath. We had a long conversation about this during your hiatus, maybe a year or two ago. As silly as it sounds, it wouldn't hurt for some celebrities to get on the train and try to make it into a 'trend'. Some kind of way to get the issue back on the front burner.

Term limits helps the finance issue exponentially. Pols voting for their constituents best interests instead of being ever-fearful of losing their own elections? Hell, they'll care less about raising funds just by default. It all begins with that desire to stay in office at all costs. Plausibly denied, continually as "well, we can't surrender this seat to the other party". Or that term limits would expunge all the best members of congress. I don't buy that.
It's personal ambition. Greed for power.

People see this as cynical but it's the truth. It's how 90% of people favor background checks on firearm purchases and NOTHING gets done. Fearful politicians worried about staying in office. And it really IS that simple to some extent. It's complicated overall but that one issue is a such a pristine example of our problems. You don't need a tin foil hat to see it.

Great post. I'm sorry I missed the discussion. Over the years I've been pulled in many different directions with the military, business travel overseas, getting a new job...etc. Not to mention, I needed a break from FYM at the time to hopefully grow a bit. Even though I'm in my early 40's now - I still like to think I can be taught new tricks.

[tim722]

Originally Posted by U2DMfan

I've said it before, I'll say it again. Our problems do not end, but they certainly BEGIN with two things. 1) Term limits and 2) Campaign finance and lobby/special interest reform (hand in hand), really.

Amen on both. Absolutely agree with you. Just not sure how to get congress to change both.

[AEON]

Originally Posted by AEON

Even though I'm in my early 40's now - I still like to think I can be taught new tricks.

I've actualy been around since 2000, but I had an old username that I'm not proud of. Rumor has it he was banned.

[Kieran McConville]

Originally Posted by AEON

Do you think the official numbers are a useful gauge? I'm not fishing, simply curious to hear it from you.

I don't think they're made up from whole cloth, if that's what you're asking. I think - in fact if they're anything like similar stats in my own country, I know - that the assumptions upon which they are compiled are... broad, let's say.

So yes, real unemployment is undoubtedly higher than the headline figures at any time suggest. But it's also relatively constant across time, barring total economic collapse or a metaphorical goldrush.

[AEON]

Many of the posts from that user didn't survive the archive process, but I remember Diemen, Achtung_Bebe, rougerum, TylerDurden and some others...

Here's an old post:

Sure I am lucky, but as with any long term relationship we have had our difficulties. We have survived the "If THIS is really true love, then why are we fighting?" phase. There have been some break-ups, as well as great make-ups Our story is not over, and I hope it is just beginning. She is a wonderful woman, an elementary school teacher (I never had a cute teacher when I went to school, no fair)

I think this song is about those times in a relationship where you really don't want to be around this person, but something keeps you there...and the next day you realize how great of a thing you truly have. "Through the storm we reach the shore..."

Well, it didn't work out. Bit I did marry someone else and had children and a great life filled with danger and romance.

I hope "AEON" doesn't get banned for admitting he's a rumored to be banned user from 2000, but I've had some wine and I've wanted for 9 years to say I'm sorry for being a jerk at that time in my early 30's...I was especially harsh to a young man that threatened suicide more than a few times...sorry DethVeggie. And I think I chatted once that I thought Thom Yorke had Downs Syndrome...sorry, not cool.

WAY off topic I know, but I thought the post was best buried in FYM. If this is AEON's last post - I will have to go away and dream it [new username] all up again.

[tim722]

Originally Posted by AEON

Many of the posts from that user didn't survive the archive process, but I remember Diemen, Achtung_Bebe, rougerum, TylerDurden and some others...

Here's an old post:

Well, it didn't work out. Bit I did marry someone else and had children and a great life filled with danger and romance.

I hope "AEON" doesn't get banned for admitting he's a rumored to be banned user from 2000, but I've had some wine and I've wanted for 9 years to say I'm sorry for being a jerk at that time in my early 30's...I was especially harsh to a young man that threatened suicide more than a few times...sorry DethVeggie. And I think I chatted once that I thought Thom Yorke had Downs Syndrome...sorry, not cool.

WAY off topic I know, but I thought the post was best buried in FYM. If this is AEON's last post - I will have to go away and dream it [new username] all up again.

Oh I think you'll be forgiven. You seem like a very thoughtful, intelligent and rational person on here. But may I ask why were you so hard on someone who was suicidal? I've known many who blew their brains out and it isn't pretty. One guy missed his brain and only blew his jaw off and minutes later had to pull the trigger again. He was alive without a jaw for a few minutes. You shouldn't mess with a suicidal person.

[AEON]

Originally Posted by tim722

Oh I think you'll be forgiven. You seem like a very thoughtful, intelligent and rational person on here. But may I ask why were you so hard on someone who was suicidal? I've known many who blew their brains out and it isn't pretty. One guy missed his brain and only blew his jaw off and minutes later had to pull the trigger again. He was alive without a jaw for a few minutes. You shouldn't mess with a suicidal person.

Thank you for the kind words...

To answer your question - He kept coming into the chatroom - saying the same thing - "today's the day" and everyone responded "poor thing" - and after several months I guess I called him on it - it wasn't well received (though I think he lived because I did see more posts after that).

I agree - it was horrible and nobody should mess with someone in that condition. But I was still a child at 30. I grew up in Boy's Homes and I knew some kids from seriously messed up situations - well, it solved my own self pity and I felt that if these kids could make it, anyone could. Or so I thought.

[tim722]

Originally Posted by AEON

Thank you for the kind words...

To answer your question - He kept coming into the chatroom - saying the same thing - "today's the day" and everyone responded "poor thing" - and after several months I guess I called him on it - it wasn't well received (though I think he lived because I did see more posts after that).

I agree - it was horrible and nobody should mess with someone in that condition. But I was still a child at 30. I grew up in Boy's Homes and I knew some kids from seriously messed up situations - well, it solved my own self pity and I felt that if these kids could make it, anyone could. Or so I thought.

Ya I guess it's a little different dealing with an unknown person who is suicidal over the internet. Especially if it goes on for months. Ten years ago I may have told him to just do it. Now I would try to get him help.

Even growing up in a difficult situation where you seen many kids make it and survive, these kids are tough and are grown up at an early age. Many times it's the kid from a middle class family who never dealt with problems into they became a teenager. The smallest issue to us may not be to him / her and be the cause of their suicide.

It's the easy way out. And it works. Unfortunately, their family is left to pick up the pieces.

[AEON]

Another great quote...

“We should do away with the absolutely specious notion that everybody has to earn a living. It is a fact today that one in ten thousand of us can make a technological breakthrough capable of supporting all the rest. The youth of today are absolutely right in recognizing this nonsense of earning a living. We keep inventing jobs because of this false idea that everybody has to be employed at some kind of drudgery because, according to Malthusian Darwinian theory he must justify his right to exist. So we have inspectors of inspectors and people making instruments for inspectors to inspect inspectors. The true business of people should be to go back to school and think about whatever it was they were thinking about before somebody came along and told them they had to earn a living.”
― Richard Buckminster Fuller

[AEON]

very cool infographic on wired.com

[Pearl]

Boy, this is something:

For the first time ever, the combined gross domestic product of emerging and developing markets, adjusted for purchasing price parity, has eclipsed the combined measure of advanced economies. Purchasing price parity—or PPP for short—adjusts for the relative cost of comparable goods in different economic markets

For The First Time Ever, Combined GDP Of Poor Countries Exceeds That Of Rich Ones (CHART)

[Pearl]

So, the unemployment rate is now at 7.3% according to CNN.

However, millions are still struggling and there are some who aren't being wise about how to deal with it:

Thousands of Kansans could lose food stamps under a new state policy that congressional Republicans hope to implement nationwide.
Kansas officials indicated that they will reinstate work requirements for food stamp recipients who are able-bodied adults without dependent children. Under the new policy, come October, those aged 18 to 49 will need to work at least 20 hours per week or enroll in a job training program within three months in order to continue to receive benefits from the federal Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program.
"We know that employment is the most effective way to escape poverty," Phyllis Gilmore, secretary of the Kansas Department of Children and Families, said in a statement posted on hayspost.com. Gilmore's agency estimates that 20,000 Kansas SNAP recipients will be affected.
Federal law allows able-bodied adults without children to receive nutrition assistance for only three months if they don't get jobs or sign up for training, but states can waive the requirement during periods of high unemployment -- something more than 45 states currently do. Kansas will join Delaware, New Hampshire, Vermont, Wyoming and Utah as states that don't waive the able-bodied work requirement for food stamps. Oklahoma and Wisconsin also intend to allow their waivers to lapse, the Associated Press reported Wednesday.
"As long as federal work requirements are met, no one will lose food assistance; the law only affects those individuals who are capable of working and have no dependent children," Gillmore said.
Last month Republicans in the U.S. House of Representatives signaled they will push legislation to curtail all states' use of the waivers. The percentage of able-bodied jobless Americans on SNAP rose from 6.6 percent to 9.7 percent of the overall food stamp population between 2007 to 2010, according to the Congressional Research Service. The Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, a liberal think tank in Washington, D.C., estimates that eliminating the waivers nationally would deprive some 4 million Americans of nutrition assistance.
In Kansas, the policy change is being greeted warmly by conservative Republicans, who dominate state politics. State Rep. Travis Couture-Lovelady (R-Palco) told The Huffington Post that he sees the shift as a way for those receiving government assistance to get jobs instead of remaining in an assistance program.
"Government assistance should be just that, a safety net, not a long-term way of life," Couture-Lovelady said. "Government assistance should be a hand up, not a hand-out. Individuals who take short-term assistance to avoid long-term dependency need to maintain empowerment over their lives, and a work requirement does just that."
Progressives in the state say the policy change will only hurt the less fortunate. Topeka Councilman Chad Manspeaker (D), a leader of the state's progressive movement, told HuffPost that the policy shift will force more adults in the state to turn to soup kitchens and food pantries in order to eat. He said this will put an additional strain on nonprofits, along with shifting the expense to local governments, which fund many of the emergency food programs.
"We have not shifted the long-term problem," Manspeaker said. "There aren't jobs out there, and we don't solve it by starving them."
State Rep. J.R. Claeys (R-Salina) told HuffPost that part-time jobs are available around the state and that those looking to meet the minimum work requirement just need to know where to look.
"The jobs that are 20 hours a week are in the service and retail industries, and those jobs are not hard to find in any part of the state," Claeys said.
Manspeaker believes that the policy shift is an attempt by Gov. Sam Brownback (R) to "rally up the base" as he heads into his 2014 reelection campaign. The move does come as Kansas politics continues to take a sharp right turn, the impact of conservative Republicans seizing complete control of state government in 2012. Former state Senate President Steve Morris (R-Hugoton), a moderate Republican, last year accused Brownback and his allies, including billionaire brothers Charles and David Koch, of wanting to turn Kansas into an "ultraconservative utopia."
Manspeaker said food stamps continue to be a touchy subject with many in the state, and Wednesday's action could help Brownback in his reelection battle against state House Minority Leader Paul Davis (D-Lawrence) next year.
"Anytime I've talked about food stamp programs, tempers fly fast, because people assume they are abusing the system," Manspeaker said. "Try living on $300 a month for food -- you can't. It's a pittance, it is nothing."

Kansas Changes Food Stamp Requirements To Mandate Work

Yes, having a job is the way top escape poverty. But not all jobs can help feed someone, let alone pay the bills and keep a roof over their heads. Sure, retail and service jobs are always there, but they don't pay much and don't offer enough hours for a person to survive on.

I know there are some Americans who do abuse the welfare system, but does that mean every honest user needs to be punished? I could see people who lost their stamps start overwhelming food banks and kitchens to the point that they'll start having problems.

[digitize]

The jobs report this month was actually pretty bad, though not as bad as last month's, which was even worse than we thought.

[nbcrusader]

Originally Posted by Pearl

So, the unemployment rate is now at 7.3% according to CNN.

However, millions are still struggling and there are some who aren't being wise about how to deal with it:


Yes, having a job is the way top escape poverty. But not all jobs can help feed someone, let alone pay the bills and keep a roof over their heads. Sure, retail and service jobs are always there, but they don't pay much and don't offer enough hours for a person to survive on.

I know there are some Americans who do abuse the welfare system, but does that mean every honest user needs to be punished? I could see people who lost their stamps start overwhelming food banks and kitchens to the point that they'll start having problems.

Is this materially different than the welfare reform signed by Clinton?

I would guess there is universal support for a safety net system – helping those who are beset by temporary trouble. How can you keep that system and not turn it into a process that creates permanent, generational recipients.

People are not stupid. They will gravitate towards the optimal balance of work vs. reward. I’ve seen this countless times in the business world where people will change their behavior based on how they are compensated.

Even if you could make more with a full time job, why work 20-40 hours a week when you can receive a sizable percentage of that wage for zero work?