UK General Election June 8th?

[Irvine511]

The post-Trump depression thst never quite goes away is starting to view events like this — the ascent of older, working class, right wing nationalism that wants health care but not immigrants — as something akin to climate change: an irreversible descent into something worse that can only be managed and guarded against, because at the moment it’s an unstoppable force. The methane and carbon continues to belch into the atmosphere — abetted by these politicians, and a madman in Brazil — just as nationalism and resentment of “elites” manifests itself in political anger that’s turned up to 11 by the disinformation device everyone holds in their hands — abetted by a KGB agent running an oligarchy.

It’s all depressing AF.

[anitram]

Originally Posted by Bluer White

Crying wolf has worked so well for ya the last four years or so, comrade.

As evidenced by the massive landslide victories posted by the GOP in all the midterm and off-year elections.

[Irvine511]

Originally Posted by anitram

As evidenced by the massive landslide victories posted by the GOP in all the midterm and off-year elections.

I suppose US intelligence agencies have been “crying wolf” since 2016 as well

[Gzusfrk]

Originally Posted by Irvine511

I suppose US intelligence agencies have been “crying wolf” since 2016 as well

I hope liberals realize that everytime they lose an election and continuously cry “Russia” that you have become a parody of yourselves.

Some of you can’t even fathom the thought that the general public (UK or US) may actually think the policies you are pushing are crap.

Maybe a lot of people like the government staying out of their business instead of trying to control everything

[LuckyNumber7]

Originally Posted by Gzusfrk

I hope liberals realize that everytime they lose an election and continuously cry “Russia” that you have become a parody of yourselves.



Some of you can’t even fathom the thought that the general public (UK or US) may actually think the policies you are pushing are crap.



Maybe a lot of people like the government staying out of their business instead of trying to control everything

While I think the immediate cry about Russia is a bit of a stretch/exaggerated, if you don’t acknowledge the serious vulnerability and new defense front in the cyber realm, it will come back so fucking hard to bite you.

Also your latter statement is a generalized and confused one. Half of the policies you don’t like (which are supported by half of the country, mind you) have absolutely nothing to do with the government being in or out of your business.

[Irvine511]

Yeah, I’m going to try and stay away from US politics directly in this thread. Although we know that Russia is quite pleased with the election of Trump, Johnson’s victory, and the upcoming actual Brexit. Its less about the actual efficacy of Russian disinformation campaigns on the electorate and more the realization (or lack thereof) that Johnson/Trump victories are quite pleasing to the Kremlin. It’s also not much good discussing with incoherent halfwitted posts.

I’m the meantime, we’re getting U.K. versions of man-in-a-Rust-Belt-diner NYT stories.


https://www.nytimes.com/2019/12/13/w...r-redwall.html

[dazzledbylight]

Originally Posted by LuckyNumber7

The UK has the same gerrymandering issue the US does, but until I hear evidence of otherwise, no reason to believe the general public didn’t vote against Corbyn. He’s insanely unpopular.

I knew he was unpopular - but i had no idea about UK style gerrymandering!

Originally Posted by anitram

As evidenced by the massive landslide victories posted by the GOP in all the midterm and off-year elections.

Originally Posted by Irvine511

I suppose US intelligence agencies have been “crying wolf” since 2016 as well

Originally Posted by Gzusfrk

I hope liberals realize that everytime they lose an election and continuously cry “Russia” that you have become a parody of yourselves.

Some of you can’t even fathom the thought that the general public (UK or US) may actually think the policies you are pushing are crap.

Maybe a lot of people like the government staying out of their business instead of trying to control everything

Oh, we can fathom it alright -
but we also know that usually you right wingers are more like about 30-35% of the country in your views. The ONLY reasons you won more support this round were a mix of a terribly slow recovery for certain (usualy) white groups often exacerbated by increasing automation so this extra 10% out of frustration, despair, add in racism of the immigrants are taking your jobs BS from drumph decided wr'll give him a try, extreme gerrymandering, continuing and increasing voter suppresion, sexism, and Hillary's midwestern campaign mistakes.

[Bluer White]

Originally Posted by dazzledbylight

I knew he was unpopular - but i had no idea about UK style gerrymandering!

Can you plz re-post your link, dazzled?

[LuckyNumber7]

Originally Posted by Bluer White

Can you plz re-post your link, dazzled?

I don’t believe she intended to make a link but here’s a general nice relevant read: https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-37337175

Though I’m the one who said it and I misspoke a bit. Gerrymandering is not really the issue in the UK, as they flat out do not have proportional representation. We can imagine our gerrymandering here in the US as a partisan attempt from either side to sway proportional representation. But since we are on a two party system, ultimately we get pseudo-proportional representation once all is said and done (assuming everyone belongs to either party, and independents are willing to be represented by either).

In the UK they have the issue where, like in this current election and many prior, the MPs may be elected by sheer plurality. So in England, the Torries absolutely destroyed Labour. UK-wide, 13-10 ratio. But UK-wide, 13 isn’t close to half of the votes. It’s 43%. When sum up the sides (assuming we use the Brexit divide) nothing has changed. It’s near 50-50 (this statement can be said as most voters who wanted Brexit left labour in the dust this election).

So you have the tories plus the Brexit party amassing 45% of the vote, but taking 56% percent of the MPs. The same thing happened in scotland. The SNP took 45% of the vote (the same amount that voted for Scottish independence) yet the SNP holds a whopping 81% of the MPs! So it happens on both the left and the right. Make matters worse? The Scotland share of MPs is already disproportionately high to the UK. So scotland is 7% of the UK, but the SNP now holds 7% of the MPs in the UK. but there are still 11 MPs in Scotland not under SNP!

Their system is sort of screwed, and features the same setbacks as the electoral college. I would argue the ones in France and Germany are the more reasonable electoral and parliamentary systems, respectively.

[Bluer White]

Originally Posted by LuckyNumber7

I don’t believe she intended to make a link but here’s a general nice relevant read: https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-37337175

Though I’m the one who said it and I misspoke a bit. Gerrymandering is not really the issue in the UK, as they flat out do not have proportional representation. We can imagine our gerrymandering here in the US as a partisan attempt from either side to sway proportional representation. But since we are on a two party system, ultimately we get pseudo-proportional representation once all is said and done (assuming everyone belongs to either party, and independents are willing to be represented by either).

In the UK they have the issue where, like in this current election and many prior, the MPs may be elected by sheer plurality. So in England, the Torries absolutely destroyed Labour. UK-wide, 13-10 ratio. But UK-wide, 13 isn’t close to half of the votes. It’s 43%. When sum up the sides (assuming we use the Brexit divide) nothing has changed. It’s near 50-50 (this statement can be said as most voters who wanted Brexit left labour in the dust this election).

So you have the tories plus the Brexit party amassing 45% of the vote, but taking 56% percent of the MPs. The same thing happened in scotland. The SNP took 45% of the vote (the same amount that voted for Scottish independence) yet the SNP holds a whopping 81% of the MPs! So it happens on both the left and the right. Make matters worse? The Scotland share of MPs is already disproportionately high to the UK. So scotland is 7% of the UK, but the SNP now holds 7% of the MPs in the UK. but there are still 11 MPs in Scotland not under SNP!

Their system is sort of screwed, and features the same setbacks as the electoral college. I would argue the ones in France and Germany are the more reasonable electoral and parliamentary systems, respectively.

Much appreciated, Lucky. New info to me, thanks!

[dazzledbylight]

Thanks, LN7, for extended info.

[LJT]

It's the first past the post system doesn't produce a representative government of what people actually voted.

Another way of looking at it other than the percentages LuckyNumber provided, is that for each MP elected:

It took:

864,743 to elect the lone Green MP
642,303 votes for zero Brexit Party MPs
334,122 to elect each Liberal Democrat
50,817 to elect each Labour MP
38,300 votes to elect each Conservative MP
38,316 to elect each Plaid Cymru MP
25,882 to elect each SNP MP

Source: Electoral Reform Society

It is frustrating to be represented in a constituency say where the Conservatives won with 40% of the vote but 60% of people in the constituency voted for other parties. Proportional representation can't come soon enough, but neither Labour or the Tories have ever supported it and until at least one does it is unlikely to change.

Also this election wasn't won or lost on traditional policies. The only policy that mattered was Brexit and then above all else it seems personality. Most of the policies that Labour espoused are popular and polled well (and they broadly did well in the last election with a similar manifesto). For instance the Tories are promising to enshrine funding increases into law for our socialised healthcare system, so I would advise Gzusfrk to refrain from looking at this election through a US-centric prism.

It will be interesting to see when people realise that Brexit isn't the cure all pill they think it is.

[Vlad n U 2]

Originally Posted by LJT

He was very unpopular, more unpopular than Boris. I don't believe his unpopularity was ever as deserved as it was.

Certainly, he had been battered relentlessly by the media ever since he won the leadership and by large sectors of his own party. I had never seen that level of vitriol directed towards him by the established Labour right wing in any other party, anywhere else.


It's important to note that virtually any Labour leader will cop it heavily, especially when you take into account that Corbyn is/was in essence a kindly (if daggy) old man who spent his career fighting against injustice. It will be a difficult thing for any future leader to navigate.

[LJT]

It comes down to some very weird metrics, like all polls said Corbyn was more trustworthy than Boris but Boris was more prime ministerial? Like what does that even mean then?

As I said it comes down to at its heart England is a very conservative nation and you need to fit the profile so as you say Labour has to work doubly hard on that to appear convincing.

[LuckyNumber7]

I understand what it means. It’s saying Boris is a statesman and Corbyn is an honest individual, but a statesmen is more capable even if he’s a liar.

Note that I’m not saying that that’s necessarily true, but look at the US and how much we miss a statesmen Bush over Trump - though Bush was objectively a worse president than Trump is, he’s infinitely more likable. Coincidentally, Trump is neither a statesman nor honest.

[DaveC]

all of those things are so subjective though as to make the polls basically meaningless. your definition of "trustworthy" and "prime ministerial" could be nearly opposite of mine and it'd all be counted the same way.

[LuckyNumber7]

Sure, but when it comes to polling large audiences all of that subjectivity averages out. The bottom line is the general public as a whole did not align the two questions. Individual responses are sort of irrelevant versus the public-wide “opinion.” Of course, the only way to personify the public is to relate back to an individual.

[Vlad n U 2]

Originally Posted by LJT

As I said it comes down to at its heart England is a very conservative nation and you need to fit the profile so as you say Labour has to work doubly hard on that to appear convincing.

I feel much the same way re: Australia, true progressive change seems very unlikely.

[dazzledbylight]

Originally Posted by Gzusfrk

Maybe a lot of people like the government staying out of their business instead of trying to control everything

oOhhh...

...you mean like the Gov't not telling Women what to do if they get pregnent???!!!!!

[LuckyNumber7]

He doesn’t answer you use logic. Try saying hnnfvnknvrsawegbn37