True situation within Greece

[financeguy]

Thoughts from Athens
Submitted by Bruce Krasting on 11/08/2011 10:51 -0500

Greece International Monetary Fund


I talked to someone in the shipping business this morning. He happens to be Greek and has substantial interests in the country. We never did get around to talking about ships. Some of his words on the status quo in Greece:


The situation today is worse than ever. Business has stopped


The world does not appreciate the extent of social deterioration in the country.


Soup kitchens are forming to feed people.


Many old age homes are desperate. Many are indebted. The have been pleading for donations.


Wealthy ship owners have been discussing a private initiative to provide support for those on the edge.


There is no possibility for a unity government. There is less chance for this in Greece then there is in the USA. You think there is a problem between Democrats and Republicans? Here, they hate each other.

Papandreou was desperate to get out. He could not see how he could continue to play a confrontational role with the Greek people. He was losing his ability to maintain civil order. He did not want to govern a country that was going to become either a police state, or fall into a state of revolution.


An interim government may pass new laws and make promises to the EU and IMF. Most in the government want to stay in the EU and stick with the Euro. It’s in their best interests to do so. That’s what the EU is pushing them day and night to do.


It’s way to late for this type of orderly transition. It will end badly for Greece.

Thoughts from Athens | ZeroHedge

[the iron horse]

I agree. It is bad in Greece and getting that way all over
Europe.



Could this be part of the problem?

“Communist” China warns: Europe ruined by the welfare state | Herald Sun Andrew Bolt Blog

[Aygo]

No, the problem is not the welfare state. Just to start.

It's too bad that China don't look to its own belly button first.
How much has their currency only valued in the last 15 years? 7% average... Which means that the Yuan has been severely underappreciated. Plus, China only keeps its economical role up, not only because they (still) have a "controlled" but crescent middle class, but because they shipped on true financial mercantilism. The problem is that the debts they bought may not have much vallue because of that, because their currency is highly underappreciated (and no economy can hold that forever, for too much time) and they start to struggle with not knowing where to invest that money. Does any investor want to invest in the european market, knowing that it can collapse (once again) with severe collateral damage for the global economy? Nope.

Welfare State IS sustainable.
But some variants have to change.
First, Europe countries have a quickly ageing demographic structure. Which means that the lesser part of active young people have to work more, or (not necessarily more, but) to create diverse forms of producing richness for the economy.

The problem, specially in highly corrupted countries like Greece, Portugal, Italy, etc., is that something would have to change so dramatically that I'm not sure that the society would resist. The portuguese 1974's revolution, I usually call it a half-revolution, because people only changed that they were interested in or what didn't hurt. Besides that, sometimes I feel that Portugal is the exact same country it was (for instance) in 1933 when it opened its arms to fascism.

Greece has the same problem that Portugal but 3 times worse: very burocratic, a justice system that doesn't work or that's very slow, very dependant economy from imported products, very dependant from external financiation, and, mostly, a big private debt (no one talk of it, because it's not convenient but private debt is superior to public debt).
In Portugal, the same 4/5 families/groups that ruled, that really governed 100 years ago, are the exact same ones today. Greece has the exact same problem.

Plus, the premises of the system of the UE was... communion and solidary... My ass!!

Remember the European funds?
Well, they were basically subsidies that big economies would send to small (or - then - weaker, like the UK was in the 1980's - that's why Thatcher did what she did) economies to kill their industries, the industries that represented the GDP, with the excuse: «You don't have to produce cars or milk anymore, cause we do it. Just focus in infra-structures like real estate, highways and things to fill your view. We'll take care about the rest». So, 2011, these countries have most of their economical structures destroyed, no capacity of rebuild it. In 1975, Portugal (the closest example I have, of course) had +/- 33% of agriculture, 33% of industries and 33% of services. In 2010, we had 77% of services (most of them non-exportable), 18% of industries and 5% of agriculture.

Plus, many of the european countries still have authentic drains of the public money, such as, perks for the political actors, just as an example. Until the economies are monopolized by private interests and by the dependancy of bigger economies, oh you bet the Welfare State is not sustainable.

[Vlad n U 2]

Originally Posted by the iron horse

I agree. It is bad in Greece and getting that way all over
Europe.



Could this be part of the problem?

“Communist” China warns: Europe ruined by the welfare state | Herald Sun Andrew Bolt Blog

An Andrew Bolt article, seriously?

[canedge]

Newt Gingrich spoke yesterday about his brief time in Greece this year. It was sad that he mentioned that some of the animosity in Greece aimed at the Germans was rooted in WW2 lost gold. It is time to forget the past and grow up Greece.

[Axver]

Originally Posted by Vlad n U 2

An Andrew Bolt article, seriously?

I suppose people not from Australia don't know about how he has precisely zero credibility.

[LJT]

Originally Posted by canedge

Newt Gingrich spoke yesterday about his brief time in Greece this year. It was sad that he mentioned that some of the animosity in Greece aimed at the Germans was rooted in WW2 lost gold. It is time to forget the past and grow up Greece.

I wouldn't say the Greeks are angry over their lost gold but more how undemocratic the EU is, especially since they are bossed and ordered about by German and French leaders, who threatened them when they wanted to enact their democratic right for a referendum on their membership of the EU. I think a certain amount of anger is understandable, as each individual has little say in how their country is run or governed compared to some others with certain connections, bankers et al.

[LJT]

It's also kinda funny to hear China, which many people believe in the states believe to be the great purveyor of that evil of socialism, blame socialism for how Europe currently is.

[Vincent Vega]

Originally Posted by LJT

I wouldn't say the Greeks are angry over their lost gold but more how undemocratic the EU is, especially since they are bossed and ordered about by German and French leaders, who threatened them when they wanted to enact their democratic right for a referendum on their membership of the EU. I think a certain amount of anger is understandable, as each individual has little say in how their country is run or governed compared to some others with certain connections, bankers et al.

Well, I think this entire mess shows the true state of the EU more than anything else. Let's begin with how Greece is a member to the Euro in the first place. Back in 2002, when the Euro was finally introduced as a tender currency (ie. in the public face, as before it was just a currency used in non-visible transactions) it was an open secret that Greece manipulated its books to perform to the Maastricht criteria, and that all other countries just closed their eyes because after the UK, Denmark and Sweden sticked with their old currencies they needed every member they could possibly get. Over the years, not much changed, which is one factor, and now everyone acts surprised.
Then you have the fact that in the EU still every nation first and foremost acts for itself and in its own interest. And that's not jus Germany and France, but every country. Problem is, there's a great imbalance. And nothing to unify it. Fiscal and economic policy are still up to each individual country. And not a single country adjusted its own policies according to what the EU, and especially the Eurozone, needed. Germany and France pushed its exports, Germans got ripped off their money (for more than 15 years now real wages are decreasing), Ireland attracted banks and companies with tax havens, and countries such as Greece imported like hell, increased wages and cumulated so much debt they can't breathe anymore.
So now we are in a crisis and again there's no sign of working together. Merkel and Sarkozy are still all about preserving their own best interest and make impossible demands from the Greek and other debtors just to preserve a system which is on life-support, but with no real chance to survive, and if, it will be permanently and heavily disabled.
The most fucked up thing in the whole story is how some media are stirring the shit, and how in no time the public debate hit rock-bottom again. And this is where this Nazi-gold story and others come into play. Please, people, feel free to critizise Merkel and her policies as well as her pressure all you want, but please, save us this fucking Nazi bullshit already. Just for once, it would be nice to keep this debate at a level that is not a massive facepalm. The reason why Greece is in trouble while Germany is the largest economy in the EU has zero to do with this relatively small amount of stolen gold. So if anything, this entire mess should show everyone where the EU really stands at. And might give some inkling at why the Lisbon treaty was met by so much resistance.

[LJT]

There are definitely certain levels of xenophobia cropping up in relation to all this, I especially find the acronym for the troubled countries, PIIGS, a bit on the distasteful side, i've also read quite a few comments that it is the 'laziness of the greeks' that has led to their situation and they deserve what they get.

The little that I've actually heard being reported of the general mood of the German public is that they are against all this bailout money being thrown about? You can tell me if this is wrong but as I understand it most of the money for the bailouts and what not has been German? Which I could understand quite well why the German public would be against it, as it seems generally people have little idea where all the money eventually ends up.

With Italy now getting much worse financially and probably with a protracted period of political disorder, I can't see how any of this is actually going to get any better.

I would also like to state a lot of the financial dealings and shenanigans have me a bit lost, a lot of this has certainly been a crash course in economics, but I can't help but feel and get angry that it is the people of the EU as a whole who are getting shafted by the incompetence of the political establishment and the self interest of the banks.

[INDY500]

Clearly Greece's problems are the result of the Corporatocracy/Illuminati/Area 51 trinity.

[Vincent Vega]

Originally Posted by LJT

There are definitely certain levels of xenophobia cropping up in relation to all this, I especially find the acronym for the troubled countries, PIIGS, a bit on the distasteful side, i've also read quite a few comments that it is the 'laziness of the greeks' that has led to their situation and they deserve what they get.

The little that I've actually heard being reported of the general mood of the German public is that they are against all this bailout money being thrown about? You can tell me if this is wrong but as I understand it most of the money for the bailouts and what not has been German? Which I could understand quite well why the German public would be against it, as it seems generally people have little idea where all the money eventually ends up.

With Italy now getting much worse financially and probably with a protracted period of political disorder, I can't see how any of this is actually going to get any better.

I would also like to state a lot of the financial dealings and shenanigans have me a bit lost, a lot of this has certainly been a crash course in economics, but I can't help but feel and get angry that it is the people of the EU as a whole who are getting shafted by the incompetence of the political establishment and the self interest of the banks.

There is those who have no idea whatsoever what is going on, why it is like it is and who source most of their information from Bild and other tabloids which are running campaigns against those countries now in trouble and the Euro. They are being told that, indeed, the Greek are lazy, unproductive and earned more and more while working less and less while at the same time avoid paying taxes. That's the populist gut reaction from the ignorant who still believes this shit, and our government, of course, likes to tell it this way as well as it suits their interests. Naturally, if you are asked to give a lot of money you are open to any voice telling you why you shouldn't.
Then there's those who are opposed to the bailouts and the other policies currently being enacted because they know that this will go nowhere, and that there's but little hope for Greece to find a way out without a massive haircut (of which no one is able to exactly tell what the consequences will be).
At the moment it's a blame game from all sides when in fact it was a fuck-up from all sides. Pointing fingers is not getting us anywhere, but none of the politicians is willing or daring to take on the underlying system.

You are right, for the citizens it's also very hard to see why they have to suffer and the banks and large corporations get away with it. As I said before, for the past 15 years real wages in Germany have declined in order to keep us as competitive as possible against low-wage countries. Workers have excepted these cuts, as well as massive cuts in the social systems, with the promise that this will eventually make us all better of. And now they are told that the future will even be more bleak, and that they have to give money to countries where wages have greatly increased while productivity has remained stagnant. And if no one tells you that both developments are linked, i.e. the Greek were to earn more in order to buy our stuff, and that their economy were to remain uncompetitive in order for us to remain the largest exporting nation, of course you will feel that this is all unwarranted.

[financeguy]

Originally Posted by INDY500

Clearly Greece's problems are the result of the Corporatocracy/Illuminati/Area 51 trinity.

Exactly!

[Vlad n U 2]

Originally Posted by LJT

It's also kinda funny to hear China, which many people believe in the states believe to be the great purveyor of that evil of socialism, blame socialism for how Europe currently is.

I found that to be absolutely hilarious.

[LJT]

Originally Posted by INDY500

Clearly Greece's problems are the result of the Corporatocracy/Illuminati/Area 51 trinity.

Or just too many vested interests of some people with too much power, plus the whole making money from money, intangible financial products that have no actual real value and what not, and an economic system that wildly swings depending on rumour and inaccurate predictions. How the city of London and Wall Street operate is the true insanity in the world. I don't think bankers and stock brokers are evil people or stupid, but they have been subsumed into a system based completely on intangibles, on a system where if you give monkeys the ability to trade shares, you would get similar results to today's major investment banks, as it is a system wholly predicated on chance.

[LJT]

Originally Posted by Vincent Vega

There is those who have no idea whatsoever what is going on, why it is like it is and who source most of their information from Bild and other tabloids which are running campaigns against those countries now in trouble and the Euro. They are being told that, indeed, the Greek are lazy, unproductive and earned more and more while working less and less while at the same time avoid paying taxes. That's the populist gut reaction from the ignorant who still believes this shit, and our government, of course, likes to tell it this way as well as it suits their interests. Naturally, if you are asked to give a lot of money you are open to any voice telling you why you shouldn't.
Then there's those who are opposed to the bailouts and the other policies currently being enacted because they know that this will go nowhere, and that there's but little hope for Greece to find a way out without a massive haircut (of which no one is able to exactly tell what the consequences will be).
At the moment it's a blame game from all sides when in fact it was a fuck-up from all sides. Pointing fingers is not getting us anywhere, but none of the politicians is willing or daring to take on the underlying system.

You are right, for the citizens it's also very hard to see why they have to suffer and the banks and large corporations get away with it. As I said before, for the past 15 years real wages in Germany have declined in order to keep us as competitive as possible against low-wage countries. Workers have excepted these cuts, as well as massive cuts in the social systems, with the promise that this will eventually make us all better of. And now they are told that the future will even be more bleak, and that they have to give money to countries where wages have greatly increased while productivity has remained stagnant. And if no one tells you that both developments are linked, i.e. the Greek were to earn more in order to buy our stuff, and that their economy were to remain uncompetitive in order for us to remain the largest exporting nation, of course you will feel that this is all unwarranted.

What's your personal take on it?

I've been trying to think of what should be done, but can't really come up with an answer other than the idea that the Eurozone should just be finished off, which for many will be severe economic hardship and turmoil, but I can't shake the feeling the rubble needs to be cleared for everything to start afresh.

Some talk seems to be about France and Germany now going there own way, which I guess would be the break up of the Eurozone and maybe the break up of the EU altogether. (I've also read that this could all actually even lead to the break up of Italy, maybe a bit farfetched, but then it really hasn't been a unified country for that long).

[Aygo]

But, unless the Merkozy Franco-German axis raises up protectionist measures against the PIIGS... How can they survive alone?
I think that these countries, more than selfish, they're being suicidal.
Yeah, China and the US are now big export (and import) markets for Germany and France. But have they forgot that their main and biggest market still is something called Europe? I don't get this... Have France realised that after Spain (that will "fall" soon as well, it's guaranteed) France is "falling" too and that there's no "pseudo-help" for them? China and Brazil warned that they don't intend to invest in countries from Europe that have no idea what to do of how to behave...

[Vincent Vega]

Originally Posted by LJT

What's your personal take on it?

I've been trying to think of what should be done, but can't really come up with an answer other than the idea that the Eurozone should just be finished off, which for many will be severe economic hardship and turmoil, but I can't shake the feeling the rubble needs to be cleared for everything to start afresh.

Some talk seems to be about France and Germany now going there own way, which I guess would be the break up of the Eurozone and maybe the break up of the EU altogether. (I've also read that this could all actually even lead to the break up of Italy, maybe a bit farfetched, but then it really hasn't been a unified country for that long).

I guess we are now haunted by the inconsequence of the past. We formed a monetary union, created some "stability criteria", ignored them and thought this could be sufficient. Of course, if it weren't for the financial crisis the problems in Greece and other countries wouldn't have gotten so troublesome. Yet. Because eventually, something would've triggered it, and no country showed any intentions on changing the tracks they were in before their weaknesses were exposed.
Now politicians try to still keep focussing on their national as well as personal interests (I don't see any of these politicians showing any willingness to do what's right even at the expense of their own position. Quite on the contrary), and they want to somehow make the Euro survive without hurting anyone too bad. Except for, well, the people in the countries which are now forced to make unprecedented cuts. And where will these cuts lead? Not out of debt, but into more debt. It's a vicious cycle, especially for Greece.

I would like if the populism were finally thrown overboard, the tabloid newspapers set on fire or whatever helps, and people in Greece, Germany, Ireland, Italy, France, Spain etc. realised that it's not the other country that is to blame, but everyone shoulders part of it. I don't see the unity of the people. They are getting riled up so easily, and old prejudices come to the fore so easily. That is quite frightening.

Personally, I very much like the Euro. I love to be able to cross the boarder and pay with the same currency. And I don't think it's inevitable for such a currency to fail. You just need to overcome your national focus and create a real monetary union. Maybe this will break apart, but at the moment no one can really say for sure. I don't think this will end in the collapse of the EU. The EMU was never made up of the entire EU, and it's not a necessity of the EU. Also, it wouldn't serve the interest of any of the member countries. If the EU collapses, then because we let the wrong parties into power. And if we do that, we shouldn't worry about the union as much as about our lives.

Even Belgium seems to be forming a new government now, after a record-long 16 months without one. Italy is pretty much divided economically, and people from the south and north don't really mix, but breaking apart into two countries? Well, never say never, but I don't see that, yet. Unfortunately, I don't think there's an active poster in this forum who is from Italy, as it would be interesting to hear from someone closer about such rumours.

[Aygo]

Originally Posted by Vincent Vega

I guess we are now haunted by the inconsequence of the past. We formed a monetary union, created some "stability criteria", ignored them and thought this could be sufficient. Of course, if it weren't for the financial crisis the problems in Greece and other countries wouldn't have gotten so troublesome. Yet. Because eventually, something would've triggered it, and no country showed any intentions on changing the tracks they were in before their weaknesses were exposed.
Now politicians try to still keep focussing on their national as well as personal interests (I don't see any of these politicians showing any willingness to do what's right even at the expense of their own position. Quite on the contrary), and they want to somehow make the Euro survive without hurting anyone too bad. Except for, well, the people in the countries which are now forced to make unprecedented cuts. And where will these cuts lead? Not out of debt, but into more debt. It's a vicious cycle, especially for Greece.

I would like if the populism were finally thrown overboard, the tabloid newspapers set on fire or whatever helps, and people in Greece, Germany, Ireland, Italy, France, Spain etc. realised that it's not the other country that is to blame, but everyone shoulders part of it. I don't see the unity of the people. They are getting riled up so easily, and old prejudices come to the fore so easily. That is quite frightening.

Personally, I very much like the Euro. I love to be able to cross the boarder and pay with the same currency. And I don't think it's inevitable for such a currency to fail. You just need to overcome your national focus and create a real monetary union. Maybe this will break apart, but at the moment no one can really say for sure. I don't think this will end in the collapse of the EU. The EMU was never made up of the entire EU, and it's not a necessity of the EU. Also, it wouldn't serve the interest of any of the member countries. If the EU collapses, then because we let the wrong parties into power. And if we do that, we shouldn't worry about the union as much as about our lives.

Even Belgium seems to be forming a new government now, after a record-long 16 months without one. Italy is pretty much divided economically, and people from the south and north don't really mix, but breaking apart into two countries? Well, never say never, but I don't see that, yet. Unfortunately, I don't think there's an active poster in this forum who is from Italy, as it would be interesting to hear from someone closer about such rumours.

Let's watch it by another prisma.
The Euro was imagined because many leaders thought that the only way to mantain the EU - specially after the german reunification - was to create a single monetary space. It was an exigence of countries like France.
I don't know if you remember but France and Germany were reticent to join it because they had such strong currencies. And Germany, at that time, refused joining a common currency because the Mark was already strong enough. So, Germany's demand to join the Euro was «we'll only join it if the Euro is as strong as our Mark is».

This was the problem #1. 17 countries joining a currency that doesn't match the average of the weight of the economies of the 17 countries and, instead, having a currency that values much more than their economy does? No way, for example, the Euro was equivalent to 200 Escudos (old portuguese currency)?!
And since countries like the PIIGS cannot devalue the Euro artificially (that's what all economies do/did historically when they're in trouble, so exportations are privileged) the alternative is... Devalue the purchasing power and, most important, devalue the costs of labour! And Governemts take advantage of this situation and implement their own agenda, like the portuguese governement: "to waste" the Welfare State and the Health System the more they can, so people move to the private services and then you have, for instance, Health for rich and Health for poor. Join it, selling all public services (that MUST be public) electricity (and its network), the water company, collective transport companies, and others... And give it by a very low price to private hands.

Problem #2 was the Stability Criteria you reffered. Remember who were the first countries violationg the rules of the Stability and Growth Program (SGP)? I do and Kohl remembered it too a few months ago: it was France and Germany.
I'm not saying that the rules are not necessary, they are. The problem is that they're not rational. They're HIGHLY IRREALISTIC, totally forgetting that economy is not an exact science.
I remember when someone said, 10 years ago, that the Euro would not survive its first crises. Now I understand why. Because it was poorly designed, with unrealistic rules, it didn't preview scenaries of crisis (what country is gonna accomplish the "<60% of public debt" and the "<3% budget deficit" in times like this, for Christ's sake?!)...
Plus, do you remember what the European Comission (commanded by that portuguese a$$hole) and, specially, the ECB said when Lehman Bros went bankrupt and they understood a crisis was coming? Remember? I do.
They told the European States (specially those in the Euro) «Waste the money, run into debt the way you want, save your banks with that debt and don't let it fall, because the ECB will be there to crushion the fall». Remember these kind of affirmations back in 2008? I do. and now I know that it means. Now I know that the ECB is no Central Bank like the others are.

I start not to call "lunatic" to those who say that little by little (but quickly) Europe runs the danger to enter a new conflict again. Something that the EU was designed to avoid. Isn't it ironic?

To me, Europe has only two options.
1) The EU is desintegrated and countries get back to their own corners and wait until a conflict between some starts again;
2) EU countries have the balls to admit that they'll have to lose all soveraignty and start a process of a (without bullshit and national/umbilicus interests) real federalism.

I prefer option #2. The problem is: are countries really available to lose all soveraignty? Is the Netherlands, for example, willing to lose things that define its national identity? Other example: if there's a conflict or and invasion to Greece, or Slovenia, or Estonia... Does the finish, or the austrian or the spanish army feel they have to defend their own european compariots? Do they feel european enough to defend them? Do they feel they belong to the same federation? Since Europe's history proves that european people don't want to abdicate on their own national identities, my answer is "no, they're not will to do that".

And it is solidary.. My ass!
The Lisbon Treaty is a fraud because of all this.
So, the treaty doesn't preview the exit of a country from the Euro? Is this a prison? You can enter but you can't leave?!

Then, it comes option #3. Keep things as they are. To achieve successive Merkozy Franco-German summit put the other 25 countries aside their decisions, to keep on driving the whole Europe together, happily hand in hand, to the abyss, under egoistic/hurried/inconsequent policies.
Unfortunately, I think leaders are choosing option #3.

Above all this, I ask: what's the ECB for? What's the ECB for if the ECB is not allowed to borrow to the States, but it is allowed to inject money to the banks at the rate of 1% (now 1,25%) and only then the banks can borrow to the States with the criminal rates we all know?
Is it worth to have a common currency without a Central Bank with proper powers (as the Chinese Central, as the FED, as the English Central Bank), without real and official political union, withouth a real unique Government (not something commanded by the Merkozy Franco-German axis, not something as the pathetic European Comission)?
What's the Euro for if there's no common debt issuance (which is the euro-bonds that Germany runs from as if it was fire or a bomb)? It's ridiculous sharing a currency and not having common debt issuance!

Now it's Italy [I personally always thought that Spain would "go" before Italy... I was wrong, but it won't be long too]...
...How long until it's France to "fall"? Because that's the only way to end with this dictatorship of having countries commanded by the remote control of Central Europe.
How long until countries like France and Germany understand that, it doesn't matter if China and the US are now big markets for them, when Europe (still) is their biggest market by far and that they depend on european countries for import and export products?

How long until Europe realizes that the way we're going, not only we won't be able to compete with China/India, or with Brazil, or with the US, but we'll be easily surpassed by these potencies?

[Vincent Vega]

I was born in '85, so yes, I know a little bit about the debates, but I cannot really say I remember them.
You shouldn't confuse the Euro with the EU, though. The Euro failing is not the same as the EU failing. We can all go back to our former currencies and still be the EU. The EMU is a part of the EU, but it's not the basis of the EU, nor the foundation.

I generally agree with your economic reasoning. I guess the only not so hypothetical scenario would be a conflict between Greece and Turkey over Cyprus (which, at least for the moment, also doesn't seem urgent), and that'd be a case where the rest of the EU would have to show face. Overall, the original idea was that over time we would grow more united, but for the first couple decades (not to say, centuries) no one expected people to give up their national feelings. However, you do not need to give up your sovereignty 100 percent. But a unified fiscal and economic policy would help heaps to stabilise the monetary union. This cannot be achieved by simply trying to keep inflation at a certain level and a few other odd criteria (one was even immediately dropped, where M2 (definition of money which includes cash and regular bank accounts as well as other form of bank accounts with short-term supply of liquidity) was only allowed to grow by a certain maximum rate.