True situation within Greece

[Aygo]

Originally Posted by financeguy

We're in uncharted waters now. I think Ireland/Greece/Portugal cannot survive in the eurozone and will default. Don't know about Italy and Spain, but surely there is not enough left to bail them out, not properly? The Spanish bailout is a joke, doesn't remotely address the situation. It is starting to look like a northern zone of selected eurozone countries may emerge, Merkel was strongly hinting at this the other day.

Ireland will presumably ultimately return to a peg with sterling, which in my view is not the worst option.

The Spain question is quite complicated. They have the biggest "bubble" in the real state market in Europe. It's not people's fault. It's the banks fault who created path for this situation. Plus, Spain always had chronical high rates of unemployment, but it's Europe's biggest: 25%(!).

Now the curiosities... Just like Ireland, before the crisis, not only Spain also had a superavit in the budget, but they had one of the lowest public debts in Europe (63% of GDP in 2009). Plus, since 2009, the ancient (pseudo-)socialist had already been approving austerity measures in advance to most countries and preventing Merkel's warnings that they must cut, cut and cut.

Is it spanish people's fault? Is it the lack of austerity? I don't think so.
It's the reverse: the more austerity applied, the more the situation degrades.

It's mostly incredible how spanish situation, the film of their last 18 months took the exact same steps, the exact same speeches in the specific timmings... Just like in Portugal. It was predictable this was gonna happen to spanish from Portugal's vision.
So it means that Italy's obviously next.
And then, France.

The problem is that Spanish Economy Minister, Luis de Guindos (who was in charge of the negociations) said yesterday to the EU, to Merkel and to the IFM, in the middle of the reunion something like: «Ok, you want to force Spain to ask for a bailout, but if so, get €500 000 million for Spain and other €700 000 million for Italy who'll be coming right after us».

On the other hand, the reason why Germany doesn't want eurobonds, ECB working as a normal central bank, money print, but mostly inflation is... That Germany has been going to the financial markets and borrowing money with interests near zero (two week ago it was 0,07% for money at 2 years term). Germany is asking money with no interests to borrow to Spain (it's not for the spanish banks, let's be practical... the banks will absorbe it, but it's the spanish people who'll pay for it) with interests of 4 or 5%.

Someone's earning money with these forced and programmed bailouts and it's not those who ask for it.

About Greece... SYRIZA (socialist radical left) can win, but New Democracy (conservatives) may win too, but no solution will work, I think. Greece will obviously leave the Euro, probably the EU and will become again a regime of coronels.

[financeguy]

Originally Posted by Aygo

The Spain question is quite complicated. They have the biggest "bubble" in the real state market in Europe. It's not people's fault. It's the banks fault who created path for this situation. Plus, Spain always had chronical high rates of unemployment, but it's Europe's biggest: 25%(!).

Now the curiosities... Just like Ireland, before the crisis, not only Spain also had a superavit in the budget, but they had one of the lowest public debts in Europe (63% of GDP in 2009). Plus, since 2009, the ancient (pseudo-)socialist had already been approving austerity measures in advance to most countries and preventing Merkel's warnings that they must cut, cut and cut.

Is it spanish people's fault? Is it the lack of austerity? I don't think so.
It's the reverse: the more austerity applied, the more the situation degrades.

It's mostly incredible how spanish situation, the film of their last 18 months took the exact same steps, the exact same speeches in the specific timmings... Just like in Portugal. It was predictable this was gonna happen to spanish from Portugal's vision.
So it means that Italy's obviously next.
And then, France.

The problem is that Spanish Economy Minister, Luis de Guindos (who was in charge of the negociations) said yesterday to the EU, to Merkel and to the IFM, in the middle of the reunion something like: «Ok, you want to force Spain to ask for a bailout, but if so, get €500 000 million for Spain and other €700 000 million for Italy who'll be coming right after us».

On the other hand, the reason why Germany doesn't want eurobonds, ECB working as a normal central bank, money print, but mostly inflation is... That Germany has been going to the financial markets and borrowing money with interests near zero (two week ago it was 0,07% for money at 2 years term). Germany is asking money with no interests to borrow to Spain (it's not for the spanish banks, let's be practical... the banks will absorbe it, but it's the spanish people who'll pay for it) with interests of 4 or 5%.

Someone's earning money with these forced and programmed bailouts and it's not those who ask for it.

About Greece... SYRIZA (socialist radical left) can win, but New Democracy (conservatives) may win too, but no solution will work, I think. Greece will obviously leave the Euro, probably the EU and will become again a regime of coronels.

Seriously why the hell would anyone want to be a part of the EU anymore? It is as corrupt as hell and has no interest in the smaller nations such as us.

[Aygo]

Originally Posted by financeguy

Seriously why the hell would anyone want to be a part of the EU anymore? It is as corrupt as hell and has no interest in the smaller nations such as us.

By the way, how are things in Ireland?
Portuguese propaganda isn't very clear. The media and the Government say «look at Ireland, they're the proof that austerity works and cleans the house». But on the other hand, analysts and journalists say that the irish situation is not as "pink" as the media paints and that the program is not working as well. Who's speaking the truth here?

What about the opinion in Ireland about the parties? The opinion pollings say that people want to punish Enda Kenny's party for being the face of those who are applying the memorandum? Or in the other hand, people understandit and they still feel that it really is Fianna Fáil's fault?

[the iron horse]

Greek conservatives win, head into coalition talks | Fox News

[Aygo]

Originally Posted by the iron horse

Greek conservatives win, head into coalition talks | Fox News

With 99% of the votes counted:

New Democracy [conservative right]: 29,66% / 129 deputees [already with the 50 bonus, which is an institucionalized coup d'État, 'cause no one voted for these 50 plus]SYRIZA [radical socialists]: 26,89% / 71
PASOK [social-democratic self-called socialists]: 12,28% / 33
ANEL/Independent Greeks [dissidents from New Democracy]: 7,51% / 20
Chrysi Avgi/Golden Dawn [neonazi party]: 6,92% / 18
DIMAR [socialists dissidents from PASOK]: 6,25% / 17
KKE [greek communist party]: 4,50% / 12

300 deputees total, which means majority is reached at 151.

Here's the deal:
ND [New Democracy] claims it wants a large government with PASOK, DIMAR and SYRIZA, although in the end, Antonis Samaras perfectly knows that only PASOK would accept a coalition.
PASOK's Venizelos says that he'll join a coalition, only if SYRIZA joins too.
SYRIZA, unlike PASOK and ND who accept the agreement, wants to reject the agreement and the austerity, so it could never join in a government with ND and PASOK. Only DIMAR claims to be opened to a coalition with SYRIZA.

Here's what I think:
ND will follow into a minoritary Government alone with ad hoc parlamentary agreements with PASOK. PASOK may even accept to enter the government. But either solution will result in a very weak government what will fall within months.
PASOK and ND are two big families (political, but also in oligarchy and corporations) that traditionally hate and always competed each other.

I predict that Greece will have elections... Again... Soon.
It'll probably have elections after elections, the austerity will not stop, social tension and impoverishment either, and the Army will take control of the political power, turning Greece into a regime of Coronel (like in the 1960's) and be a gateway to Russia and Turkey.

[BVS]

What fine headline work by Fox News

I guess it's true, their audience will fall for anything they write.

[financeguy]

Originally Posted by Aygo

By the way, how are things in Ireland?
Portuguese propaganda isn't very clear. The media and the Government say «look at Ireland, they're the proof that austerity works and cleans the house». But on the other hand, analysts and journalists say that the irish situation is not as "pink" as the media paints and that the program is not working as well. Who's speaking the truth here?

Ireland looks like precisely what it is - an economy suffering the aftermath of a leveraged property bubble, one of the most extreme in recorded history. On the plus side, young people lucky enough still to have jobs can afford to buy houses at a reasonable price, once again.

Originally Posted by Aygo

What about the opinion in Ireland about the parties? The opinion pollings say that people want to punish Enda Kenny's party for being the face of those who are applying the memorandum? Or in the other hand, people understandit and they still feel that it really is Fianna Fáil's fault?

I tend to take the long term view of such matters. FF, FG and for that matter Labour were all complicit. That said, I expect FG to be re-elected, as most people, understandably, blame FF in large part, as it was the party that presided over the false boom and resultant crash. I am not particularly a fan of Enda Kenny's party, but when he said at the Davos meeting recently - "In my country, people went mad borrowing" -

Enda Kenny "Irish People Went Mad" - YouTube

- everyone in Ireland got on their high horse and complained, but I thought he was right - it was a truism really, to me.

[Aygo]

Originally Posted by financeguy

Ireland looks like precisely what it is - an economy suffering the aftermaths of a leveraged property bubble, one of the most extreme in recording history. On the plus side, young people lucky enough still to have jobs can afford to buy houses at a reasonable price, once again.



I tend to take the long term view of such matters. FF, FG and for that matter Labour were all complicit. That said, I expect FG to be re-elected, as most people, understandably, blame FF in large part, as it was the party that presided over the false boom and resultant crash. I am not particularly a fan of Enda Kenny's party, but when he said at the Davos meeting recently - "In my country, people went mad borrowing" -

- everyone in Ireland got on their high horse and complained, but I thought he was right - it was a truism really, to me.

I don't know much about what happens in Ireland, media don't talk about Ireland here, but I found some Enda Kenny's statements interesting.

When Ireland asked for bailout I remember Kenny explicitly saying to the people something «this is not your fault».

I found interesting because it's the opposite of our PM, Passos Coelho.
Passos Coelho has already said things like: «People have to withstand the punishment and don't be corny», "Unemployment is an opportunity", and he and his Ministers have already said many times for the young people to emmigrate because there's no space for them here. The media and the ministers repeat until exaustion the expression «You people lived beyond your means» (which obviously is not true).

[financeguy]

Originally Posted by Aygo

I don't know much about what happens in Ireland, media don't talk about Ireland here, but I found some Enda Kenny's statements interesting.

When Ireland asked for bailout I remember Kenny explicitly saying to the people something «this is not your fault».

I found interesting because it's the opposite of our PM, Passos Coelho.
Passos Coelho has already said things like: «People have to withstand the punishment and don't be corny», "Unemployment is an opportunity", and he and his Ministers have already said many times for the young people to emmigrate because there's no space for them here. The media and the ministers repeat until exaustion the expression «You people lived beyond your means» (which obviously is not true).

Well, I am aware, from chatting to Portuguese counterparts, even 4 or 5 years ago, they were saying there was no boom in Portugal. In Ireland, we seem to have gotten the benefits of the boom - or bubble, as I prefer to call it - and also of course suffered the effects of the resultant crash. I suppose it is because of this that we do not complain too loudly. Lest Angela will hear us, and increase our taxes even more, heh heh.

[financeguy]

Originally Posted by BVS

What fine headline work by Fox News

I guess it's true, their audience will fall for anything they write.

Actually, to be fair, the Fox article - not that I'd usually defend them - is similar to how it's been portrayed in the European media. I wasn't aware of that 50 seats bonus thing until I read it in Aygo's post. Which of itself is pretty scary.

[BVS]

Originally Posted by financeguy

Actually, to be fair, the Fox article - not that I'd usually defend them - is similar to how it's been portrayed in the European media. I wasn't aware of that 50 seats bonus thing until I read it in Aygo's post. Which of itself is pretty scary.

But even if you take the Fox article at face value, do you think the title reflects the content?

[Aygo]

Originally Posted by financeguy

Well, I am aware, from chatting to Portuguese counterparts, even 4 or 5 years ago, they were saying there was no boom in Portugal. In Ireland, we seem to have gotten the benefits of the boom - or bubble, as I prefer to call it - and also of course suffered the effects of the resultant crash. I suppose it is because of this that we do not complain too loudly. Lest Angela will hear us, and increase our taxes even more, heh heh.

And it is true: Portugal has no "boom". Portugal doesn't have a problem with the real estate market (like Spain has) or with toxic financial assets (like Ireland and Island had).
Portugal has different kind of problems:
1) an economy that doesn't grow for a decade, after the EU told us/payed us to shut down industries (20%) and agriculture/fishery (5%) and turned our economy based in non-exportable services (75%);
2) having an economy based in low salaries, precariousness, antiquated entrepreneurs without vision and a State that stifles business with taxes;
3) paying the State's services and loads of unnecessary public works with debt;
4) Public-private partnerships: agreements that the State did with private corporations, so these corporations have the concession of public transports/energy/hospitals/highways. These corporations are leaded by ex-PS or PSD boys (the parties that rotate in the Government) that made contracts (with the help of lawyers big offices) with the State that are highly pernicious. For you to have an idea, taxpayers and citizens will have to pay more than €50 billion until 2050 for these contracts that are so well made that the State cannot it's frauds of bad faith. The logic of the governments was «construct it/explore it now, pay it after» and leave it for the private corporations, they'll take care of it "very well".

These are the main items that I recall now and that I think that distinguish the portuguese case.

Addendums...
It was the State who has indebted itself, not the people in their consumption.
About the bank... Portuguese banks are having problems of capitalization because the economy is freezing and the ECB is not releasing much money, but portuguese banks are not very exposed to other countries' sovereign debts, neither to toxic assets.

[financeguy]

Originally Posted by Aygo

And it is true: Portugal has no "boom". Portugal doesn't have a problem with the real estate market (like Spain has) or with toxic financial assets (like Ireland and Island had).
Portugal has different kind of problems:
1) an economy that doesn't grow for a decade, after the EU told us/payed us to shut down industries (20%) and agriculture/fishery (5%) and turned our economy based in non-exportable services (75%);
2) having an economy based in low salaries, precariousness, antiquated entrepreneurs without vision and a State that stifles business with taxes;
3) paying the State's services and loads of unnecessary public works with debt;
4) Public-private partnerships: agreements that the State did with private corporations, so these corporations have the concession of public transports/energy/hospitals/highways. These corporations are leaded by ex-PS or PSD boys (the parties that rotate in the Government) that made contracts (with the help of lawyers big offices) with the State that are highly pernicious. For you to have an idea, taxpayers and citizens will have to pay more than €50 billion until 2050 for these contracts that are so well made that the State cannot it's frauds of bad faith.

These are the main items that I recall now and that I think that distinguish the portuguese case.

Addendums...
It was the State who has indebted itself, not the people in their consumption.
About the bank... Portuguese banks are having problems of capitalization because the economy is freezing and the ECB is not releasing much money, but portuguese banks are not very exposed to other countries' sovereign debts, neither to toxic assets.

So problems of political corruption, "old boys' network" and the like. I think this is common in small countries, to be honest. We have similar problems in Ireland.

[Aygo]

Originally Posted by financeguy

So problems of political corruption, "old boys' network" and the like. I think this is common in small countries, to be honest. We have similar problems in Ireland.

Yeah, you're right, unfortunately. OECD still places Portugal in the Top5 of the most corrupt. The difference is in the kind of "dirty jobs" these boys make in each country.
In Spain it lead to a problem in the real estate market. In Portugal it lead here.

[financeguy]

Originally Posted by Aygo

Yeah, you're right, unfortunately. OECD still places Portugal in the Top5 of the most corrupt. The difference is in the kind of "dirty jobs" these boys make in each country.
In Spain it lead to a problem in the real estate market. In Portugal it lead here.

To be honest, I am always amazed that Ireland does not score higher on these corruption lists. Must do better, Ireland. (joke ).

[Aygo]

Originally Posted by financeguy

To be honest, I am always amazed that Ireland does not score higher on these corruption lists. Must do better, Ireland. (joke ).

I remember that although not as bad as Italy, Portugal or Greece, Ireland usually didn't score well too in the OECD lists. It's chronical, isn't it?

Like most things.
Here in Portugal, we don't protest, we don't rebel, unlike in Greece or even in the neighbour Spain. We only shrug our shoulders and carry on with the punishment as if nothing.
Sometimes I wonder if Salazar was a dictator chosen by us or if Salazar was a dictator perfectly tailored to our measure.

[Pearl]

On the streets of Greece, it’s now common knowledge among immigrants like Hussein that black clothes are the unofficial uniform of Golden Dawn, or Chrysi Avgi—a kind of cross between Hezbollah and the Tea Party. Since 2008, Golden Dawn supporters have assaulted immigrants with brass knuckles, knives, and batons. There have been nearly 500 attacks this year alone, according to the Migrant Workers Association, some of which have been captured on video and proudly posted on Golden Dawn’s YouTube channel.
But Golden Dawn is not just a gang of radical right-wing thugs. It is now the fourth-largest party in Greek politics. In elections this year, it won 18 of 300 seats in parliament on an explicitly anti-immigrant platform. Its growing constituency includes many ordinary Greeks who fear that waves of impoverished foreigners are draining the state’s dwindling resources and taking their jobs in a country where nearly a quarter of the population is unemployed. And as the country’s economy continues to collapse, Golden Dawn is becoming increasingly entrenched in the mainstream of Greek political life.

And yet, despite its blatant displays of brutality, Golden Dawn’s approval ratings have climbed by ten points since last May, to 22 percent, according to the Financial Times. If you speak with Greeks, it’s not hard to understand why. People from all across the political spectrum—from teachers to car mechanics to smallbusiness owners—believe that their country has become the scapegoat for a wider crisis not of their own making. In their view, they are double victims: oppressed by northern Europe and overwhelmed by waves of immigrants who bring nothing but problems. Feeling bullied and trapped, the Greek public began to seek others to bully.

The Terrifying Rise Of Greece’s Nazi Party | The New Republic

The fact that its a rising political party in Greece is not a good sign. Greeks have to find other ways to combat their frustration.

[digitize]

Germany's revenge on the world for the Treaty of Versailles?

[Salome]

while I sort od agree that Greece is being scapegoated,
it should be obvious enough it has been living above its means

I guess life isn't fair
that realisation doesn't excuse racist behaviour though

[digitize]

What good is living within ones means if ones means are being artificially depressed?