True situation within Greece

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Other examples that THIS european construction is now way socialist at all is the project of European Constitution and the Lisbon Treaty. I remember somethings that I have already posted on this forum about the Lisbon Treaty and the project of European Constitution. I'm going to do copy/paste of a post I did in November about this subject:

- It's a liberalist constitution;
- When it's approved it's not possible to change it;
- The word "bank" appears 176 times (in more than those 800 pages), "market" 78 times, "competition" 174 times... And "social progress" 3 times... "brotherhood" or "fraternity" appears... 0(!) times;
- "Public service" is reffered... Only 1(!) time and only to talk about transport coordination;
- "The right to have a job", "the right to a minimum salary, income or retirement pension", "the right to health" are reffered... 0(!) times. There no "right to accomodation", but only the "right to be accomodated";
- It reffers that "public services must be privatized and oppened to competition" and it says that "public help funds" must be restricted;
- The European Parliment has no right to propose laws, that's a function of the European Commission which is not directly elected in the european elections;
- The priority of the EU is to fight - not unemployment, not poverty, but... - inflation;
- European Central Bank is... completely independent, it has no control, which means that the UE is not allowed to define its own monetary policies;
- In case of war, the priority is - not the UE intervention to stop it, not an appeal to United Nations, but instead... - to avoid turmoils in the financial markets;

I admit, I was not aware of much of this. I have never read the treaty, I voted no to it but for fairly broad and fundamental eurosceptic reasons (I never wanted the EU project to be anything more than a free trade zone, with perhaps some co-operation on defense and security matters tacked on, given that we live in a post 9-11 world. I don't think it should even have a constitution) rather than based on any in-depth political analysis of the details of the treaty. That said, I may have to re-assess my analysis of the EU project.
 
I admit, I was not aware of much of this. I have never read the treaty, I voted no to it but for fairly broad and fundamental eurosceptic reasons (I never wanted the EU project to be anything more than a free trade zone, with perhaps some co-operation on defense and security matters tacked on, given that we live in a post 9-11 world. I don't think it should even have a constitution) rather than based on any in-depth political analysis of the details of the treaty. That said, I may have to re-assess my analysis of the EU project.

I totally understand your reasons. Whether we're talking about the Euro, the EU, or Europe, any of these matters are very delicate.
Last week, on a portuguese TV channel, a journalist said that Europe/the EU shouldn't be what it's doing now. The EU should look back, understand when it started to go wrong, deconstruct the Europe-project to that part and reconstruct it again. The problem is that I think that the whole EU project, although with the best intentions (because the leaders of the 1950's/60's/70's/80's were real/true stadists that remembered very well what happened in the first half of the XXth century) has big faults from the beggining. Starting on the fact that, despite some referendums here and there, the whole project was constructed against the people's (of all the countries) will. The construction of "Europe" hasn't been a democratic process at all.
Isn't that enough reason to relight the nationalist mistrust and hate that we know it still exist between most of all european countries?

I have no idea if the EU should "disband" or if it should go forward into federalism.
I'm not sure federalism would work, because Europe has highly strong nationalisms inside (even different and radical nationalisms inside countries), even though we forgot about it for a few decades.

On the other hand, since we're all going to start to suffer the real and devastating consequences of a disorganized non-planned globalization, I think the only way for Europe to "survive" in this new competition we're facing (and that we never expected because for many time in History Europe ruled alone or almost alone) is for the countries to join forces and work together... And this may have to go through federalism.

I'm a bit confused to about what's gonna happen and how it's gonna be. But I have to say that something's happening in Europe that Europe wasn't watching long long ago. And that's dangerous, not a good sign. So, I'm a little afraid too.
 
Starting on the fact that, despite some referendums here and there, the whole project was constructed against the people's (of all the countries) will.
That is not strictly true. For example, I seem to remember people in the Netherlands being fairly excited about the euro in the years running up to its introduction. While people now look back at the time they had to exchange currency when visiting a foreign country with nostalgia, that's a bit of a false memory, because back in the day people weren't that fond of it. It was only after the euro was introduced in 2002 and people became aware that shopkeepers were using the transition to increase their prices that discontent began to grow.
Europe has highly strong nationalisms inside (even different and radical nationalisms inside countries), even though we forgot about it for a few decades.
That's something that's beginning to dawn on me as well. I kept wondering where all this nationalism suddenly came from after decades of liberalism and tolerance, but I'm now getting more and more convinced that the nationalism has actually never gone away. It was merely dormant, waiting to be woken up in times of discontent. The Netherlands is like 1930s Weimar Republic now: blaming its troubles on an ethnoreligious minority in times of economic downturn.
 
That is not strictly true. For example, I seem to remember people in the Netherlands being fairly excited about the euro in the years running up to its introduction. While people now look back at the time they had to exchange currency when visiting a foreign country with nostalgia, that's a bit of a false memory, because back in the day people weren't that fond of it. It was only after the euro was introduced in 2002 and people became aware that shopkeepers were using the transition to increase their prices that discontent began to grow.

That's something that's beginning to dawn on me as well. I kept wondering where all this nationalism suddenly came from after decades of liberalism and tolerance, but I'm now getting more and more convinced that the nationalism has actually never gone away. It was merely dormant, waiting to be woken up in times of discontent. The Netherlands is like 1930s Weimar Republic now: blaming its troubles on an ethnoreligious minority in times of economic downturn.

That's what's dangerous about Europe. Because Europe never was and never will be in full peace. It's a puzzle with very strong identities and mutual old hatreds that, as you, I guess they never died. But the possibility of an European dream made the peoples forget it for some decades.

You're right in the first paragraph. I didn't really mean to say that Europe has been built against people's will, what I really meant to say is that Europe has been built non-democratically, because, despite some referendums and some leaders that said what they want, in most countries no one was asked (since the 1950's and the EEC) if they wanted, not only to join the project but also to progress in the different stages of the process.
 
Today, a portuguese columnist wrote an article that subscribes entirely some things I've been saying in this and in an other topic. Since the article is written in portuguese, I'm going to try to translate it myself.

2012/2013: The Years Of All The Dangers

«Adidas would be ready to the return of local currencies». Herbert Hainer, master of the german sportswear enterprise said that. Of course, right after this, he publicly communicated an optimistic statement. This statement was unthinkable just a few months ago, and now it's uttered by big businessmen in public interviews. The end of the Euro is not an unthinkable absurdity anymore. It's now a real possibility. And many people are already doing the maths counting on that.

The next year, right next week, and the following one, will determine the future of this continent. And that future is hang by the future of a currency.
There are things that after having happened have no return. The EU would have existed if the Euro didn't exist, but since it was created, the EU will die after the death of the Euro. And if the EU dies, Europe will return, in the middle of a crisis, to its worse moments. All the ghosts of the past - that we always thought that were fully overcome - may return. This small continent, with too much History, filled with ex-imperial powers, won't be able to stand a profound crisis if each one takes care of itself.

But Europe is living a dilema: to save the Euro without changing its architecture and without the democratization of the EU will have the same effect than to leave it. If we feed the illusion that we can save the currency by the destruction of the economy and the national democracies, that end will be the same or even more destructive. Those who believe that can sacrify everything in the name of the Euro have no idea of they have to save in order to save the Euro. Only the reconstruction of the european institutions and the reformulation of the economic and monetary policies can take Europe from the hole "she" did put herself inside.

At the present, the stakes are much higher than only the economy. It's much more than just the european social model. It's even more than the democracy. It's 65 years of peace. What amazes me is that before such huge dangers, the european people, with no exception, insist in electing, one after another, insignificant and "small" leaders and people. What impresses me is that, being possible to break this tragedy and existing so many people counscious of this eminence, we're all stepping forward to the abyss as if that walk was inevitable»


*sorry for my poor english, I tried to stay loyal to the original text in the translation
 
just read a really sad article, families can no longer afford to feed their children and are abandoning them or putting them into care... these are the kind of things my friend in Uganda experiences, but this is Europe...

Greek economic crisis turns tragic for children abandoned by their families | World news | The Guardian

There are reports that the number of people recouring to the soup kitchens is increasing very fast. Last week, there was an article reporting too that the number of children that faint in schools because of not being fed is increasing too.
 

In Greece, illegal imigrants are being locked in new version of concentration camps, which they call detention camps. Why? To steal votes from the Chrysi Avgi, an assumed neonazi party that will have 3 to 6% in tomorrow's elections. This last week, Antonis Samaras, the leader of the conservatives, New Democracy, said he wants to kick away every illegal immigrant from Greece, putting the responsibility of the country's situation in immigrants. Doesn't this ring an historical bell in your head? It does for me.
No party will reach absolute majority and there's a huge possibility that PASOK (self-called socialists, but Third Way, in fact) and ND (conservatives/right wing), the parties that dominated greek politics since 1974, will not reach absolute majority... Together.
Ten parties will enter the Syntagma, the greek parliment, including the neonazi Chrysi Avgi.

The Netherlands, one of Germany's biggest ally since the crisis (and also an appologist in Europe of the speech that the PIIGS - Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece and Spain- are lazy and don't work) tasted its own poison when the ally of the Government party rejected more austerity, leading to the fall of the dutch Government.
Consequence: the opinion polls present the extreme-right party as the best placed to win antecipated elections in September.

In France, the nationalist Marine Le Pen had 18% of votes two weeks ago. 18% is even more that what her father had (16%) a few years ago. The "Front Nationale" party is so strong now, that the second turn of the presidential presented a dispute of her electorate between Sarkozy and the pseudo-socialist Hollande.

In Germany, the opinion polls present a crescent ascent of the Pirate Party, now with 7-11%, leaving the Die Linke (left party) behind. What's so special about the Pirate Party? It is composed by left radicals, yes. But last week there were news that some right-extremists integrate this movement.

Hungary is today a dictatorship and the UE consents that. A country where the Government shuts down radios linked to opposition, where it arrests the leaders of opposition parties during riots, where homeless are arrested because they're not allowed to stay on the streets and where the Constitution was changed to "God, Country and Family" (the exact same slogan of Portuguese's fascist era... I call that a dictatorship.

In Portugal, slowly and discreetly, here and there, some events start to smell too much of Estado Novo (the fascist dictatorship of Salazar), like having the Minister of Propaganda firing who's inconvenient for the Government, arresting those who are grouped in more than 2 people, leaving orders to the police to spank people who are in peaceful demonstrations (which is the tradition in Portugal, unlike in other countries), etc.

All this sounds way too much to the dangerous 1930's and I'm really not liking this at all.
 
All this sounds way too much to the dangerous 1930's and I'm really not liking this at all.

I was just having this thought... I highly doubt that the conclusion will be the same, and things aren't as extreme, but there are definitely striking similarities.
 
I was just having this thought... I highly doubt that the conclusion will be the same, and things aren't as extreme, but there are definitely striking similarities.

I hope it won't be the same.
Even though François Hollande will most probably win tomorrow in France (and so, the "Merkozy" dictat will change the needle to and Merkel will have to deal with a different leadership in France, even in France's power is weaker that Germany's), I think it won't change much the things in Europe.

I highly believe that Spain will "fall" soon (I give it 6 months maximum) and will follow the same destiny of Greece, Portugal and Ireland, due to huge pressure of the financial markets. After Spain goes, immediately after Portugal will have to call for a second or third or fourth rescue plan.

But the problem is that Europe doesn't have enough money for an assisted financial program to Spain... Neither to Italy that will probably fall right after Spain.
And that may lead to a huge headache. I think that not "saving" Spain and Italy can be the end of the Euro and, consequently, of the EU as we know it. And I don't want to imagine what's the real meaning and implications of that.
 
I highly believe that Spain will "fall" soon (I give it 6 months maximum)

You're really that pessimistic? How do you envision such a fall playing out? It's hard for me to imagine such a horrific timetable as what you described, but I'm also not European. Regardless, even I can tell that these are scary times for Europe, and for everyone else less directly.
 
No surprise, François Hollande will be president of France. The next few weeks are going to be really interesting.

Also, exit polls in Greece are showing Golden Dawn at 6.5-7.5%: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-17975370. PASOK and New Democracy will probably see their majority shrink to something barely a majority.
 
Ok, with the citizens in Greece and France both unhappy with the austerity measures, will these new 'left' leaders change to policies that add to more red ink?

And if yes, will that lead to a European financial collapse?

or, are these elections already enough, to destabilize financial markets and we are headed to another financial melt down, a la 2008?
 
Ok, with the citizens in Greece and France both unhappy with the austerity measures, will these new 'left' leaders change to policies that add to more red ink?

And if yes, will that lead to a European financial collapse?

or, are these elections already enough, to destabilize financial markets and we are headed to another financial melt down, a la 2008?

Is a financial meltdown perhaps inevitable anyway, with mounting unemployment only making it harder and harder for governments to pay their bills?

I'm tempted to say that a Europe uniformly less focused on austerity could possibly prevent crisis if reasonable growth could be achieved within a year or so, but I don'tthink that it's possible for Europe to be that uniform right now, so it's hard to even get to the second part.
 
The Associated Press: Markets could stumble after France, Greece votes

I expect markets to go down, and this is not good. Because everything is predicated upon not having a 'panic'.

Short term market fluctuations are really not important, in any case the risk of electing an alleged socialist is already priced in.

For a more cogent analysis, turn to Ambrose Evans-Pritchard:-

Francois Hollande has ten weeks to avert a French bond crisis - Telegraph

...or, better still, to one of the world's most successful, philosophical, and also, downright entertaining hedge fund managers, the canny Scot Hugh Hendry (one of the great advantages of the internet is that the best investment analysis in the world is now more or less available to pretty much everyone with a broadband connection - at least occasionally):

Hugh Hendry Is Back – Full Eclectica Letter | Anirudh Sethi Report

FWIW, Hendry thinks the EUR/USD rate will hit parity...mind you, I lost a lot of money (for me) betting on that scenario in early 2011...
 
Nikkei is down 2% upon opening... obviously a very short-term indicator that doesn't mean too much, but I find it at least a little entertaining.
 
You're really that pessimistic? How do you envision such a fall playing out? It's hard for me to imagine such a horrific timetable as what you described, but I'm also not European. Regardless, even I can tell that these are scary times for Europe, and for everyone else less directly.

I really do believe so, unfortunately.
There's a script. All the countries that "fell" followed that exact same script, with some differences here and there.
Spain is following the exact same script Portugal did, Greece did.
The spanish government speech "we're not Portugal" (Portugal said "we're not Greece"), the way austerity enters the room, the kind of climb the interests of public debt have. I recognize the exact same way Portugal fell.
That's why I give Spain 6 months.
 
I really do believe so, unfortunately.
There's a script. All the countries that "fell" followed that exact same script, with some differences here and there.
Spain is following the exact same script Portugal did, Greece did.
The spanish government speech "we're not Portugal" (Portugal said "we're not Greece"), the way austerity enters the room, the kind of climb the interests of public debt have. I recognize the exact same way Portugal fell.
That's why I give Spain 6 months.

Surely, a decoupling of Germany from the rest of Europe is what's called for? The rest of Europe's debts are unsustainable, fair enough, so write them off and create a new exchange rate mechanism, and let Germany go it alone?
 
Is Hollande serious about his proposal to reduce the retirement age??

Of course he's not serious. Neither about renegociating that absurd dictatorial european treaty. Neither about taxes over big capitals.
He knows he cannot accomplish that.
And he knows that, although he won the presidentials by a very small margin 52-48%, he still has the legislative elections right on June 10th to win. So, he cannot let escape Sarkozy's votes.

These next months he'll show his tough side, specially on negociations with Merkel/Schauble, but when things calm down, he'll probably step back, he'll put social-democracy on the closet (as all social-democrat self-called-socialist leaders do) and he'll have to be another Third Way leader and forget all those promises.
 
Surely, a decoupling of Germany from the rest of Europe is what's called for? The rest of Europe's debts are unsustainable, fair enough, so write them off and create a new exchange rate mechanism, and let Germany go it alone?

Merkel knows that Germany cannot walk alone by itself. Although Germany sells a lot to China and South America, Europe still is Germany's biggest market by far.
Merkel knows as well two other things:
1) The european construction was leaded by France with the support of Germany, and after the reunification, by Germany with the support of France. So, Germany depends on France's support.
2) Germany's superavits and healthy public accounts are the reflex of Europe's deficits. The more german's accounts get balanced and clear, the more the other countries' accounts have troubles. Many economists have already explained that well.

Europe's debts are unsustainable because Merkel insists that the ECB cannot work as a "normal" central bank, it cannot print money and create inflation because Germany has panic of Weimar's inflation, it cannot lend money directly to the States, it cannot regulate the markets independently.
...Not to mention that the Euro urgently needs to be devalued, so it can fit somewhere closer to the average of the countries that integrate it and to be a reflex of the german economy. A country like mine, for example, cannot have a currency which is n times stronger than the real weight of our economy (and since is shared, we cannot artificially devalue it). It's not sustainable.
 
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