True situation within Greece

[deep]

I don't think number 1 will happen.
so i guess there needs to be a number 3 option

[anitram]

I still think that #1 is the best option and that it could happen. What is the better alternative? Nationalizing pensions (Germans rightly won't agree), or borrowing against the country's future gold & gas revenues? So that future generations have the pleasure of paying down enormous debts and Russian oligarchs make off like bandits?

What a shitty situation. Also a shitty way to run a country and an economy. And it sucks for them that it's happening some 6 months before the German election, so you Angela Merkel isn't going to be writing massive bailout cheques.

[anitram]

Originally Posted by deep

I don't think number 1 will happen.
so i guess there needs to be a number 3 option

Looks like I was bang on and #1 is happening at a rate of at least 20%, maybe as much as 40%.

[mama cass]

Originally Posted by anitram

Looks like I was bang on and #1 is happening at a rate of at least 20%, maybe as much as 40%.

looks like Laiki bank might even be a wipe-out...

i could well imagine there will be bank runs across the rest of Europe now as people try to protect their savings...

The bank restructuring deal
Full details of the Cyprus deal are still emerging this morning, but the top line is that wealthy depositors are being hit much harder than in the original plan.

Here's what we understand:

• All deposits under €100k have been protected.

• Laiki Bank (or Popular Bank) will be wound down and split into a 'good' and 'bad' bank. Thousands of jobs are likely to be lost.

• The 'good' bit of Laiki (smaller savers) will being moulded into Bank of Cyprus.

• The bad bit, containing its uninsured deposits and toxic assets, will be wound down over time.

• Those with savings over €100,000 at Laiki, along with bond holders and shareholders, will all make a "full contribution" to the restructuring. That is being taken as a signal that wealthy depositors could be wiped out completely - but the full picture may take a while to emerge.

As Gary Jenkins of Swordfish Research put it:

Whilst there was no official confirmation I assume that deposit holders over €100k in Laiki Bank will be totally wiped out, but that is just an assumption from the language used.

• Uninsured deposits (€100k and above) in Bank of Cyprus will be frozen, and remain suspended until the bank has been recapitalised. It's not clear what haircut they will suffer -- there was talk of 40% plus in Brussels last night.

[anitram]

Rumblings that Slovenia might be next...

[mama cass]

WAY to raise confidence!
someone kick these fucking bureaucrats out now!


"The interview has sent the euro sliding, and pushed shares down across Europe. Trading in several Italian banks have just been temporarily suspended (for dropping more than 5%)." what a surprise

i actually think i'm glad i owe the banks more money than they owe me

Dijsselbloem: Cyprus deal is template for the future
Eurogroup head Jeroen Dijsselbloem has sent the euro tumbling by declaring that the Cyprus rescue should be seen as a template for the rest of the eurozone.

In an interview with reporters in Brussels after the Cyprus plan was agreed, Dijsselbloem argued that Europe could now take a new approach to tackling struggling banks.

Dijsselbloem said (via Reuters):

What we've done last night is what I call pushing back the risks.

If there is a risk in a bank, our first question should be 'Okay, what are you in the bank going to do about that? What can you do to recapitalise yourself?'.

If the bank can't do it, then we'll talk to the shareholders and the bondholders, we'll ask them to contribute in recapitalising the bank, and if necessary the uninsured deposit holders.

Dijsselbloem, who began his term as Eurogroup president by presiding over the botched original bailout for Cyprus, argues that it's fair for big depositors to take the hit:

If we want to have a healthy, sound financial sector, the only way is to say, 'Look, there where you take on the risks, you must deal with them, and if you can't deal with them, then you shouldn't have taken them on....

The consequences may be that it's the end of story, and that is an approach that I think, now that we are out of the heat of the crisis, we should take

That last line is a concern -- are we really in calm waters now? With no stable government in Italy (or even an instable one), Greece trudging through another year of recession, Portugal and Ireland striving to exit their bailout. And don't even mention France.

The key to Dijsselbloem's comments is that he's suggesting that Europe will no longer need the ESM -- the €700bn bazooka that was meant to be on standby to prevent a banking collapse, by injecting new capital when needed.

He said:

We should aim at a situation where we will never need to even consider direct recapitalisation.

If we have even more instruments in terms of bail-in and how far we can go on bail-in, the need for direct recap will become smaller and smaller.

The interview has sent the euro sliding, and pushed shares down across Europe. Trading in several Italian banks have just been temporarily suspended (for dropping more than 5%).

[anitram]

I don't know why anyone with $ in a Spanish, Portuguese, Italian bank (just to name a few) would keep any of it in there given that comment.

[mama cass]

Originally Posted by anitram

I don't know why anyone with $ in a Spanish, Portuguese, Italian bank (just to name a few) would keep any of it in there given that comment.

it's kind of crazy they're doing this, seeing that the whole banking system is based on trust... i mean, they're seriously just ASKING for a massive run on the banks aren't they...

it's a template for legalised theft, pure and simple, i'm actually quite gobsmacked by this really... they say they're trying to lighten the burden on the taxpayer, but this is getting into unknown territory...

i mean, at least here in France people were able to vote and say no to Melenchon's proposed massive taxes on income over 100,000, whereas these poor bastards have had the shock of their lives and no choice or warning in the matter - there's loads of pensioners and small/medium businesses hit by this...

[deep]

Cypress is an island with less than 11 million people. Why give (lend) them more money? They are super broke and in way over their head in debt now. Where does it go? It's not like they have an income stream that is capable or paying more debt back? is it?

Maybe they should become part of Africa.

[mama cass]

Originally Posted by deep

Cypress is an island with less than 11 million people. Why give (lend) them more money? They are super broke and in way over their head in debt now. Where does it go? It's not like they have an income stream that is capable or paying more debt back? is it?

Maybe they should become part of Africa.

a bail out for Cyprus would've been a drop in the ocean compared with other struggling EU countries (plus only part of Cyprus is affected - this only involves half of the country - it's a relatively tiny amount of debt compared to the whole EZ picture)... i just don't understand why the eurogroup has had to inflame the whole situation this way...

[Aygo]

Originally Posted by deep

Cypress is an island with less than 11 million people. Why give (lend) them more money? They are super broke and in way over their head in debt now. Where does it go? It's not like they have an income stream that is capable or paying more debt back? is it?

Maybe they should become part of Africa.

Do have an idea of how much money we're talking about in the Cyprus bailout? You don't? I'll tell you.

€10 billion [in the american way, in Europe we say €10 000 million]. Do you know how much it represents in the whole EU GDP? A microbe!

Portugal's "bailout" was €78 billion. Spain will need €300, Italy €400/500, and let's not talk about France and Germany.

So, the EU is playing with the fire (again, fuck!! for the hundreth time) because of... €5 billion (because the other €5 billion would be supported by the State)?

Are you f***ing kidding me?

I only want these psychopats that are on the European institutions out of there, specially those who were not elected by anyone, like Van Rompuy, Juncker and all that eurotrash.

And there's people who come to me talking about a federation?!
I don't want a federation!... If this is the prospect of a federation, I reject it.
There were only two ways of forcing Europe to become one: by military force or by the monetary force. We're living the second option.

Also, don't tell me that this is not Germany's heavy hand, because Merkel's and today's Schauble's statements leave clear to me that this is, in most part, their decision, their imposition and their pyromany.
Why? Because Germany has federal elections within 6 months, Merkel's CDU (and Bavaria's CSU) has 40% on opinion pollings. No wonder... With the media selling the germans the lie that they're paying for the other lazy ones...

For those who think that Cyprus is a mere half-island in the east mediterranean, go read more about it and why such a small country is so dangerous and so potentially explosive... And why the EU (that is, Germany) don't give a f*** about it.

[Aygo]

I must recall that this month's is the 60th birthday of the forgiveness of 62% of Germany's public debt because of their "funny games" (not to mention the next forgiveness, 22 years ago).

But it seems that this country's historical memory is little or none. That's the only answer I find for so much damage done to the others and, soon, to them selves.

[anitram]

Originally Posted by deep

Cypress is an island

Or a tree.

With respect to why there was no bailout of a relatively small amount of money, it's because the Cyprus government didn't do what they were told to do (implement austerity, etc). So the EU really went out and made an example of them, which is easy to make given Cyprus' size and GDP relative to EU's totals.

[Aygo]

Wolfgang Schaüble said a few days ago that some countries in the EU are jealous of Germany.
Well, those who feel envied have to feel superior relatively to those who supposedly envy.

To me this only confirms what I already thought about Merkel's Finances Minister: he's a sinister and macabre character of the History of Germany (and of Europe). He's only throwing fuel to the fire, showing that he (as a representative of the German society) doesn't have any historical memory and that he's repeating the exact same errors of 80 years ago. To me it's no surprise, it only confirms what I already thought. For some who weren't expecting this, it might be.

[Aygo]

The next victims are already targeted:

- Malta that has also a small country with some doubtful financial operations
- Luxembourg that has a bancary sector and a financial sector that represent 25 and 50% of the country GDP, respectively
- Slovenia, which has a fragile government, and official unemployment rate of 14% and whose interests (for debt of 10 years) went from 5% to 7% in only one week

Also Liechtenstein, which doesn't belong to the EU, but that's dependant from central Europe economies, such as Germany and Switzerland, decided to follow its austerity program.

[Aygo]

Merkel doesn't want any kind of confusion, don't even want the countries to move until she wins elections in September.
Well, there's another hole in her purposes.

Yesterday, as predictable, the Portuguese Constitucional Court rejected the Budget for 2013.
In this case of obvious unconstitutionalisms, it was the President's function to ask for the preventive supervision of the Budget to the Constitutional Court.

The president, who's from the same party of the government, didn't ask for it in 2012.
The Constitutional Court declared unconstitutional 2 laws from 2012's Budget, because 2 small left parties asked for that supervision. But since it was already July, the Constitutional Court said that, although unconstitutional, and since there were some urgency economically, it would open an exception.

What did the Government do for 2013, whose Prime-Minister declared he doesn't like the Constitution?
Go even further and provoke/violate the Constitution even more.

Again, it was the small left parties to ask for the subsequent supervision of the 2013 Budget. They asked the supervision of 9 laws of the document. The big center-left party and the President went after them (not to be behind the train) and asked the subsequent supervision of only 3 laws.

It was expected that he Constitutional Court would reject 1 or 2 of the laws of the 2013 Budget.
Yesterday it was announced that important 4 laws are unconstitutional and that there are no exceptions opened (because a Constitution cannot be suspended).

The Government, who's the one who intentionally made an unconstitutional budget, says now that this is the Court's responsibility.

In only one week, the Government faced: the biggest party in the opposition (center-left) who presented a censure motion (who was rejected because the right wing has the majority); the Prime-Minister who lost his "right-arm" (a Minister who's the biggest mafious crook and his biggest friend); and now the clear rejection of the Budget (who's a huge fail for the autist Minister of the Finances). No one wants these guys in the Government, not even many of the voters of the right.
The result? They're gonna stay with the support of the President who doesn't want elections because that's a headache for him.

The media say that the Government is negociating this weekend a second bailout and preparing to put the blame in the Constitutional Court (who's not a legislator, just a mere guardian of the Constitution).

The metal logic of these psychopats is:

1) How to lead the people wanting a minimal state (rejecting the welfare state) where they pay little in taxes?
ANSWER) Raise the taxes to unbearable levels with nothing to offer them in exchange for the services of the welfare state.

2) How to eliminate the welfare state model?
A) Devaluing quality of the public services, causing people to prefer private services. Beginning in the National Health System, transforming Social Security into assistencialism and mutualism, and continuing to finance the private system at the expense of public.

3) How to lead people to think that the presidential system is better?
A) Having as President a dead-walking from the same party that does not move, leading people to think that it is better to have a President with 10x more power than it has in the current regime.

4) These guys hate the Constitution and, in 2010, the present Prime-Minister wanted to change it almost completely. How to convince people that the Constitution we have is bad?
A) Violating, ripping, going over and playing consistently with the Law of Maximum Republic.
A) Making blatantly unconstitutional laws and then say it is the fault of the Constitution that is bad and not the legislator that does not respect the law who is submitted to.
A) Blackmailing the Constitutional Court and throwing the trump card of "Oh yeah, you rejected my budget? Then I ordered a second "bailout" and I'm telling people it is the fault of Court and the Constitution. "

[Vlad n U 2]

I heard that locals on a Greek island took it to the fascists, even threw one into the sea. Brought a smile to my face.

[Pearl]

More financial trouble for the EU:

Cyprus's banks have been tamed – are Malta and Luxembourg next? | Ian Traynor | Business | guardian.co.uk


Slovenia may also be next.

[digitize]

Europe desperately needs a banking union.

[Aygo]

Originally Posted by digitize

Europe desperately needs a banking union.

It's too late now. Cyprus, Greece and Portugal are already leaving the Euro (unoficially, but in the end that's what's happening) and dragging down the other countries with it, because of the incompetence, intolerance and because of bad, trashy, european leaders.
Bye-bye Europa. It's was good as it lasted.