True situation within Greece

[Aygo]

I was making some research about the Portuguese public debt and its evolution, through news articles, official data of the Government/Bank Of Portugal/Eurostat and I found out that:

In a quarter, I repeat, in just three months, the portuguese public debt went from 107% to 118% (11%... in just three months).
- In 2008 was circa €90 billion (64%).
- In 2011, before the troika came in, soared to around €150 billion (90%).
- Today, in 2012, the data from October 2012 estimated €228 billion.
- Of these €228 billion, €120 billion are related to debt interests or debt repayment expenses. Which means that 53% of the debt is based in criminals interests and especulation. I repeat: 53% of the debt.

Nobody ever wondered why, suddenly, from 2008 to 2009 the debt of countries like Portugal, France, Germany, Greece, Slovenia, among others, has nearly doubled. Nobody remembers what the ECB, then commanded by Jean-Claude Trichet, ordered the states to do, immediately after the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers in 2008. This fact was completely erased from the memory of the populace. Go find out what happened, 'cause I'm not gonna tell you again.
Nobody asks why instead of reducing debt (which would be its purpose), the memorandum of the troika, signed in May 2011, increased ​​even more to levels than will never ever will be paid.

Therefore, the first moron who comes to me (in flesh) with the kind of speech my country needs austerity, that I've been living over my possibilites; that this money "lent" is to pay salaries and pensions; that this is working well that it's having good results, that it is the only way and that there is no alternative; that this is not ideological, and that is all for our good... The next one who says something that, I will punch him in the face, just to see if he stops his brain $#!£ and starts putting his lazy neurons and his brain working. [Obviously I won't do that... Well, just until I (or most people) have nothing else to lose]

[Vlad n U 2]

No, I'm pretty sure the first thing those types of morons deserve is a swift punch to the face!

[Aygo]

Originally Posted by Vlad n U 2

No, I'm pretty sure the first thing those types of morons deserve is a swift punch to the face!

I was obviously making an exageration...

[mama cass]

clearly, we've been bailing out the banks all along - that's why a lot of anger is directed against the 2% who just keep on screwing the rest of us over

it makes me so angry it's unreal...

[mama cass]

Originally Posted by Aygo

I was making some research about the Portuguese public debt and its evolution, through news articles, official data of the Government/Bank Of Portugal/Eurostat and I found out that:

In a quarter, I repeat, in just three months, the portuguese public debt went from 107% to 118% (11%... in just three months).
- In 2008 was circa €90 billion (64%).
- In 2011, before the troika came in, soared to around €150 billion (90%).
- Today, in 2012, the data from October 2012 estimated €228 billion.
- Of these €228 billion, €120 billion are related to debt interests or debt repayment expenses. Which means that 53% of the debt is based in criminals interests and especulation. I repeat: 53% of the debt.

Nobody ever wondered why, suddenly, from 2008 to 2009 the debt of countries like Portugal, France, Germany, Greece, Slovenia, among others, has nearly doubled. Nobody remembers what the ECB, then commanded by Jean-Claude Trichet, ordered the states to do, immediately after the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers in 2008. This fact was completely erased from the memory of the populace. Go find out what happened, 'cause I'm not gonna tell you again.
Nobody asks why instead of reducing debt (which would be its purpose), the memorandum of the troika, signed in May 2011, increased ​​even more to levels than will never ever will be paid.

Therefore, the first moron who comes to me (in flesh) with the kind of speech my country needs austerity, that I've been living over my possibilites; that this money "lent" is to pay salaries and pensions; that this is working well that it's having good results, that it is the only way and that there is no alternative; that this is not ideological, and that is all for our good... The next one who says something that, I will punch him in the face, just to see if he stops his brain $#!£ and starts putting his lazy neurons and his brain working. [Obviously I won't do that... Well, just until I (or most people) have nothing else to lose]

yeah the speculators - i remember that - it was almost like "ok, which country shall we bring to its knees today?" - shameful... it's an economic war...

[Aygo]

The (already predictable) next victim:

Moody's downgrades French credit rating

The country's debt has been reduced from AAA to AA1 and has kept its negative outlook, meaning it could be downgraded again.

In a statement, Moody's blamed the risk of a Greek exit from the euro, stalled economic growth and the chances that France will have to contribute to bailing out other countries.

The same movie (with 2 years late by report to Portugal or Greece), the same justification, the same steps.

[Philisedge]

Originally Posted by Aygo

Yeah, they probably knew each other and collaborated. I have to research more about it. A friend of mine is speciallist in foreign politics during the Estado Novo regime, I'll ask her about it.

I've been reading some things about greek politics, and the most surprising thing to me is that a big part of the most important greek politicians have all the same surnames. Many of them are called Venizelos, Karamanlis, Papandreou, Samaras, etc. To a foreigner it gives the (maybe wrong) impression that greek politics work as a monarchy in a familly-heritage-descendant system. Is that true or these are only common/popular names in Greece?

Sorry for not repling to you you any earlier.Well,those people who happen to have these names are such crooks!!! Ok,I agree that some of them made at least something right,like Karamanlis who got us into the Europion Union(which I by the way start to wonder if it was really a right decision),but they are indeed as I said before,big,fat crooks(except from Samaras and Papandreou who were not fat in compaire with Venizelos and Karamanlis)!!! Those names are not comon here.It's just that years ago some politics who had these surnames where in the goverment and after their deaths their children or grandchildren took their place,or easier as you said it is a familly-heritage-descendant with the only difference that all those years we have been voting for ... maybe I shoulden't use the excpration!

[mama cass]

Originally Posted by Aygo

The (already predictable) next victim:

Moody's downgrades French credit rating

The country's debt has been reduced from AAA to AA1 and has kept its negative outlook, meaning it could be downgraded again.

In a statement, Moody's blamed the risk of a Greek exit from the euro, stalled economic growth and the chances that France will have to contribute to bailing out other countries.

The same movie (with 2 years late by report to Portugal or Greece), the same justification, the same steps.

these rating agencies serve the interests of and are paid by the corporations, and luckily it looks like governments are learning not to take them too seriously especially as their recommendations clearly do not appear to be working! the French PM has interpreted the downgrade as a sanction re. the previous government - hopefully things won't go into panic mode and we won't be pressurised by a bunch of unelected arseholes...

here's a pretty good article on the situation in France

France should not be bounced into reform by Moody's downgrade | Business | guardian.co.uk

And Hollande is far from deaf to the complaints of industry that it's too burdened with social costs and strung about with regulations to succeed: his prime minister has announced €20bn-worth of tax-breaks for firms, after a report by ex-EADS boss Louis Gallois called for a national "competitiveness shock". France does need to reform — but it will be a complex, politically fraught process that should be carefully managed. Recent experience suggests heeding the advice of the IMF, let along the ratings agencies, is not even a recipe for economic success, let alone social or political harmony

[Vlad n U 2]

Golden Dawn Gets EU Human Rights Seat | Greece.GreekReporter.com Latest News from Greece

EU inviting fascists to play.

[mama cass]

Originally Posted by Vlad n U 2

Golden Dawn Gets EU Human Rights Seat | Greece.GreekReporter.com Latest News from Greece

EU inviting fascists to play.

[Vlad n U 2]

I think we all know what happened the last time Europe bathed together with fascism.

[Pearl]

Originally Posted by Vlad n U 2

I think we all know what happened the last time Europe bathed together with fascism.

But does Greece have that much influence over Europe? Germany was more of a superpower, or maybe a former superpower, in the 1930s.

[Vlad n U 2]

It doesn't, but then Greece isn't the only country with rampant fascist groups, there's also Hungary for example.

These sorts of economic conditions can become a breeding ground for fascist groups.

[Vlad n U 2]

(Golden Dawn) Hell is ours - YouTube

[Aygo]

It's only Europe self-destructing.

Last week it was the italian elections after the non-elected-technocrat Mario Monti-government. Many say the results were a surprise. For me it wasn't.
Bersani, a dinossaur of the center-left only got 25,4% and 29,5% linked with other small left parties. It was the "hope" to get Italy out of it, but Bersani is so empty, so cliché'd, so weak, that only got it.
Surprisingly, Berlusconi got back and other 1/4 of the voters choosed him again.
The biggest surprise was Pepe Grillo, a populist ex-comedian who doesn't have an ideological vision of society,just random populist proposals and a anti-politicians speech. Of course it's not any wonder why he got 25,5% of the votes.
Mario Monti, supported by a few right parties only got 9% or 10%. So, the solution that Merkel and the EU choose for Italy without the italians consentment... Lost, by far. The problem is that, just as the german SPD leader, Steinbruck, said, half of the italians voted in two clowns. One of them very well known, Berlusconi, the other, new, Grillo.

Now, no one wants to link with no one and Italy remains ungovernable.
First, Greece. Now, Italy.

I'm living in Spain now and the situation is not very different from Portugal. Spain basically is living Portugal's movie with a delay of 18 months.

In Spain people are angry. I'm living in Catalunya, and there's a strong and crescent anger, but most of all a crescent separatist will. Many people here want Catalunya to become independent. There'll be a referendum next year. No one knows what's gonna be the result, because the public opinion is too much volatile now.
In Basque Country it's not very different, obviously.
Spain has now an unemployment rate of 27% and many people are being evicted from their homes. Firemen are refusing to help with it.

In Portugal it's a bit different. Yesterday there was another demonstration all over the country with more than 10% of the population of the whole country adehering. There are differences with the September demonstration. In September people were still hopeful, screaming and hoping things still could change a little.
Yesterday, you could easily see that people are mostly sad, hopeless, and thinking that this Government is not falling even if a asteroid hits their headquarters. It was more emotional, specially when people all over the country sang in unison one of the main songs of the 1974 revolution.
The present portuguese Government is mostly a dead-walking, who doesn't have the popular support of almost no social sector (neither the employers, neither the church, neither many people of their own parties), only of the "troika" and the President of the Republic who's a mummy that "doesn't exist", who's also "dead". The public debt is now in 123%, the structural deficit is way bigger than told, our real income decreased about 20% (including/mostly unemployed and pensionists), the scandals around the Government are almost daily - in "normal times" this Government wouldn't even last 4 months. The "social contract" was tear with no mercy and the Government still insists in putting social/professional classes against others and humiliating social classes/groups (last week, the new insult was saying that those who are employed are accomodated, for instance), etc. The (official) unemployment rate is now 17,6% - remembering that in 1999 it was 4% and in 2005 was 7%.
But the Government, not only refused to resign, as it insists on an ideological programme that wasn't voted and that's pure social engineering. I hear many times that this Government is Neo-Liberalist. I'm an anti-Liberalism, but I disagree. This Governement's ideology is the Social-Utilitarism.

I couldn't take it anymore and decided to come to the neighbour Spain. Spain is not much better (the unemployment rate, as I told, Europe's worse, 27% is pure madness), but I had to get way from it.

This is Europe.

[digitize]

Aygo, I've heard that a lot of Catalan nationalism has stemmed from Catalonia being relatively better off than the rest of Spain, which has created resentment in Catalonia about the amount of money flowing out of Catalonia to the rest of Spain. Do you think that that is a fair assessment of what is happening?

[Aygo]

Originally Posted by digitize

Aygo, I've heard that a lot of Catalan nationalism has stemmed from Catalonia being relatively better off than the rest of Spain, which has created resentment in Catalonia about the amount of money flowing out of Catalonia to the rest of Spain. Do you think that that is a fair assessment of what is happening?

In part that's true. Of all the spanish autonomic regions, Catalunya is one of the richest, one of those who produces more, who contributes more to the whole country and, consequently, to the other regions. But that's part of the truth. Spain is an assimetric federation where different regions have different levels of autonomy from the central power, from each other. For example, in Catalunya, there are certain taxes that the local government charge and retain in Catalunya, which money from the taxes that doesn't go to Spain. That doesn't happen, for instance, in Andaluzia or in Castilla-la-Mancha.

Another data I forgot about Portugal: immigration.
Portugal has today an official unemployment rate of 17,6%. But these 17,6% do not include those who are not registred in the Public Job Centers, those who simply gave up searching for a job (many are long-term unemployed), but most of all, do not include the immigrants.
On the last two years (2011 and 2012), at least 200 000 people left Portugal to live and work in another country. If we remind that Portugal's population is about 10,5 million, then, 2% of the population immigrated. And we know that most of these immigrants are no longer poor unlettered families, but the biggest part are young people with high educational skills, where the State invested on the last decades and now says that this country doesn't have a place for them. Unemployment rate under 35 yrs old is 40% in Portugal (over 50% in Greece and Spain), and the general one is 17,6%, but if we add all these classes, specially those 200 000 immigrants, the number is much bigger.

[Pearl]

Reading Aygo's reports, it's like the world is entering a dark age.

OK, I'm exaggerating, but everything seems so bleak now in terms of the economy and employment.

[digitize]

Rather troubling news out of Cyprus

BBC News - Cyprus economy 'on the brink', Bank of Cyprus warns

It's past time for an EU banking union, I think.

This is awfully reminiscent of what happened in Iceland, at least in my mind. Small island nation with a massive reliance on banking fueled by deposits from foreigners... if the banks tank, so goes the economy. Brussels and Berlin are still being rather pro-cyclical. The ECB wants a significant amount of money from Cyprus for a bailout of the banking system. The Cypriot government tried to do a one-time tax on savings of up to nearly 10% to fund that, but that would be disastrous, and public outcry pretty much shut that down. Banks are on bank holiday for the time being, so the only access to money is via ATMs, which generally managing to stay supplied with money, but with limits on withdrawals (I believe that Laiki, the bank that is under the biggest threat, has that limit set to €240). Cyprus wants a bailout from Moscow, as a third of deposits in its banks are Russian (it's a nice tax haven for Russian billionaires), but that seems unlikely. There are natural gas reserves off the coast that have been used as offers to try to get some people to give up money (including savers and Russia), but they're somewhat disputed with Turkey and no one seems to be taking. It's a bit of a mess.

[anitram]

Originally Posted by digitize

The Cypriot government tried to do a one-time tax on savings of up to nearly 10% to fund that, but that would be disastrous, and public outcry pretty much shut that down.

Actually that is probably a relatively likely outcome and also the less "bad" of the two possible outcomes.

First possibility - the Cyprus proposal which includes a tax on deposits of over 100,000 Euro (probably in the range of 15-20%), nationalization of Cyprus state pensions and securitization of future gas earnings. This was rejected by the EU/IMF because of the latter two prongs of the proposal, leaving the one time tax as the only plausible mechanism, which would have to be implemented by imposing capital controls to prevent bank runs.

Second possibility - Cyprus leaves the Euro. Much less likely than #1 because Cyprus wants to remain a banking centre (also the main reason that the one-time tax was rejected by the general public). Obviously leaving the Euro kills that. Furthermore, leaving the Euro would result in major losses because all deposits would be redenominated in a new, devalued currency.

Both of these outcomes are bad, it's only a question of which is less bad (IMO #1).