The death spiral

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financeguy

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The center-right Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung writes:

...........

"A vicious circle has begun: Forced sales of securities are pushing down prices, which leads to new rounds of write-offs, causing institutions' capital to shrink -- which in turn makes further sell-offs necessary. The government needs to break through this crisis. Then it will also no longer need to take over the bad risks of the all-too-careless banks."

The financial daily Handelsblatt writes:

"It is not easy to say this loudly and clearly: The German banks are on the edge of the abyss. This is the painful truth, and nothing but the truth. … All of them have been hit (by the financial crisis). We urgently need a 'bad bank' in which a large part of the toxic securities and loans which are still on the banks' balance sheets can be deposited.

The World from Berlin: 'German Banks Are on the Edge of the Abyss' - SPIEGEL ONLINE - News - International

The death spiral of deflation.

Deutschland is one of the more prudently managed Western economies.

Imagine what condition the banking sector is in in the bad boy debt junkie economies (US, UK, Ireland, etc, etc)
 
I think I can now say that I don't find ignorance to be bliss.


My view regarding the Australian banking sector, for what it's worth, is that it is probably in not that bad of a condition. I have read that most of the Aussie banks are fairly ok, with Macquarie and NAB being exceptions. but I think that even the worst of the Australian banks are in a not bad condition compared to the average UK or Irish bank.

Of course, Australia will suffer from the collapse of the commodities bubble, but seems to have a fairly well-diversified economy, from what I can gather.

Overall, I think that Australia and Canada are the best placed of the 'Western' economies, going into the global recession/slump/depression.
 
Overall, I think that Australia and Canada are the best placed of the 'Western' economies, going into the global recession/slump/depression/nuclear winter and thousand-year age of barbarism.

fixed that for you, as people are wont to say these days.

Yeah Australia's banks are not too bad, but our economy is far from diversified. We dig stuff up and export it. The actual people involved in that activity are a minority but I guess the income is highly important to the nation.

Other than that it's mostly services, financial services, some nice restaurants and tourist outfits. We certainly don't manufacture much of note.
 
Overall, I think that Australia and Canada are the best placed of the 'Western' economies, going into the global recession/slump/depression.

Our FDI is immobile, and that's really coming in very handy right now.
 
Our FDI is immobile, and that's really coming in very handy right now.

what do you think of the conservatives recent "leaks" that they're prepared to run a defecit for the next number of years?

i think that's a bit foolish, considering if the economy pulls itself together before then there'd be little reason for canada to run in the red.
 
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/01/26/business/economy/26banks.html?partner=permalink&exprod=permalink

Nationalization Gets a New, Serious Look
By DAVID E. SANGER
Published: January 26, 2009
The White House is dancing around a delicate question: Is the president prepared to nationalize the banking system?


He may have to. Americans are losing their jobs and I don't see how our Unemployment System, is going to support all of these families. Hopefully, there will be light at the end of the tunnel.
 
Overall, I think that Australia and Canada are the best placed of the 'Western' economies, going into the global recession/slump/depression.

Canada does look well-positioned, considering that none of their banks are insolvent. Of course, bank fees are also high, and credit interest rates have seemed really quite terribly high as well, even before the crisis happened. As a consequence of this, the fairly non-competitive nature of Canadian banking has made all of them fairly cash heavy for years, meaning that they never needed to veer off into risky investment income.

On the other hand, I've watched the CAD exchange rate between the USD deteriorate to around USD 0.78-0.82 over the last few months. Perhaps I'm a little more worried about this than others, because I have to pay off USD debt over the long term. It really seems to me that no matter how fiscally responsible Canada is, it always seems to sink with the U.S. markets.

Does anyone have any thoughts on this?
 
Oil prices are driving down the Canadian dollar to an extent. You can bet that if we returned to the crazy days of several months ago where we were paying $1.30/litre at the pumps, the dollar would probably hit parity again.

On the one hand, there is some level of national "pride" for lack of a better word in having a dollar hit parity. On the other, there is no huge desire to prop up the currency because it hurts the manufacturing sector, which is particularly low at the moment. So the low dollar is almost seen as a bonus, although obviously not by somebody like you or somebody who is doing a lot of cross-border shopping.
 
I do just find it very curious how quickly the USD can fall against the CAD the minute the stock market has a decent rally. As of 10:10 am today, the USD is down nearly 2 cents against the CAD to almost 0.83, although that can obviously change considerably as the day goes on. On one hand, I think it shows the vulnerability of the USD once the markets improve. On the other, if the bear market lasts for a long time, a weaker CAD could persist, which wouldn't be good for me...heh.
 
On the other hand, I've watched the CAD exchange rate between the USD deteriorate to around USD 0.78-0.82 over the last few months. Perhaps I'm a little more worried about this than others, because I have to pay off USD debt over the long term. It really seems to me that no matter how fiscally responsible Canada is, it always seems to sink with the U.S. markets.

Does anyone have any thoughts on this?

Speculating on exchange rates is kind of a mug's game (so being a mug, I do it :wink:).

Maybe post a question on an FX traders forum?
 
There is no "market-friendly" solution to this mess folks. There are, however, disastrous decisions that can be taken, and continuing to hide losses - and the truth - will lead directly to that disaster.

We must deal with the bad debt by forcing it into the open. Transferring it from one pocket to another fixes nothing and if we're not careful we will wind up precipitating a bond market collapse coincident with the stock market melting down to a degree that is several times worse than what we saw in September and October.

Unless President Obama wants to be known as our second Herbert Hoover, he must not allow the game-playing to continue any longer.

Neither you or I want to see the S&P 500 collapse down into the 200s with 75% of the listed firms in this country going under. Nor do we want to see 20 or even 30% unemployment. I'm sure you're not interested in seeing not a 30 or 40% loss in your 401k as you had last year, but an 80% loss. And I'm very, very certain that having the government - both state and federal - unable to raise operating funds and being forced to cut off social services and entitlements is not on your "desirable" outcome list. Yet all of this can and will happen if the bond market dislocates and starts a cascade. The price action in the market over the last couple of weeks is a strong warning that "borrow and spend" will not work and the market is getting rather upset with papering over ever-expanding losses.

It would be nice if President Obama had several weeks or even months to coordinate a strategy. Unfortunately the market doesn't work this way, and it appears that he is being forced to either crap or get off the pot essentially now, lest the market decide for him.


On The Edge of The Abyss - The Market Ticker

http://market-ticker.denninger.net/archives/759-Here-It-Comes.html
 
Roubini: Banking System is "Bankrupt", "Effectively Insolvent"

Leading economist Nouriel Roubini said today that the U.S. banking system is "bankrupt" and "effectively insolvent":


“I’ve found that credit losses could peak at a level of $3.6 trillion for U.S. institutions, half of them by banks and broker dealers,” Roubini said at a conference in Dubai today. “If that’s true, it means the U.S. banking system is effectively insolvent because it starts with a capital of $1.4 trillion.” ***

“The problems of Citi, Bank of America and others suggest the system is bankrupt,” Roubini said. “In Europe, it’s the same thing.”


George Washington's Blog: Roubini: Banking System is "Bankrupt", "Effectively Insolvent"

The German $400 billion toxic asset time bombPosted by Edward Harrison on Saturday, 17 January 2009 This just in from the German daily Der Spiegel: German banks are still loaded with risky U.S. assets, only a fraction of which has been written down. If this report is true, it suggests that the entire German banking sector is extremely undercapitalized and vulnerable to further writedowns going forward. However, German Finance Minister Peer Steinbrueck refuses to set up a state-controlled ‘bad bank’ as the UK has done and Sweden did before it - a decision I believe Germans will regret.

You should also note that this story reveals that Deutsche Bank is the latest bank to end all proprietary trading activities. The business model of banks risking their own capital through large bets, trading for their own account is over.


The German $400 billion toxic asset time bomb - Credit Writedowns
 
Just on a sindenote: Der Spiegel is not a daily, but a weekly magazine published every monday. ;)

The second largest bank, Commerzbank, has now started its own bad bank. For a federal bad bank politicians are still discussing of, how and when. Some economists tell them it should be done yesterday, others say a bad bank is not the solution in this case; for example one who was responsible for the Swedish bad bank in 1990. I guess we will end up seeing a bad bank, but I don't know how effective that will be.
Then we have the Hypo Real Estate which is getting new guarantees almost by the week, and they are still going on with hiding with their information as long as possible. I'm sure the banks by now know far better what their situation is like than they are telling the public or the authorities, which is a shame.
 
California, Almost Broke, Nears Brink

by JENNIFER STEINHAUER
New York Times, February 16



LOS ANGELES — The state of California—its deficits ballooning, its lawmakers intransigent and its governor apparently bereft of allies or influence—appears headed off the fiscal rails.

Since the fall, when lawmakers began trying to attack the gaps in the $143 billion budget that their earlier plan had not addressed, the state has fallen into deeper financial straits, with more bad news coming daily from Sacramento. The state, nearly out of cash, has laid off scores of workers and put hundreds more on unpaid furloughs. It has stopped paying counties and issuing income tax refunds and halted thousands of infrastructure projects. 20,000 layoff notices will go out on Tuesday morning, Matt David, the communications director for Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, said Monday night. “In the absence of a budget we need to realize this savings and the process takes six months,” Mr. David said.

After negotiating nonstop from Saturday afternoon until late Sunday night on a series of budget bills that would have closed a projected $41 billion deficit, state lawmakers failed to get enough votes to close the deal and adjourned. They returned to the Capitol on Monday morning and labored into the evening but still failed to reach a deal. They planned to reconvene at 10 a.m. Tuesday to go at it again.

California has also lost access to much of the credit markets, nearly unheard of among state municipal bond issuers. Recently, Standard & Poor’s downgraded the state’s bond rating to the lowest in the nation.

California’s woes will almost certainly leave a jagged fiscal scar on the nation’s most populous state, an outgrowth of the financial triptych of above-average unemployment, high foreclosure rates and plummeting tax revenues, and the state’s unusual budgeting practices.

...In the meantime, drivers are met with “closed” signs at Department of Motor Vehicles offices two days a month, environmental programs are left unattended, piles of dirt mark where highway lanes are to be built to ease the state’s infamous traffic congestion, school systems mull layoffs and counties prepare to sue the state for nonpayment of bills.
 
Anyone read Paul Krugman's Conscience of a Liberal?

I've only read the first few chapters. It seems interesting, and what he has to say seems contradictory to the biz/econ grad students I know.

Anyone have any of their own thoughts on his book?
 
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