Global Pandemic Part IV: IV Experimental Cocktails

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I wonder if we will see a 100k case record on Tuesday when the various states provide updates on the weekend testing.
 
What are you all so upset about? He said it again in New Hampshire today-we've turned the corner, it's going away.

Five plus years now of he says something, that makes it true. Actually so much longer than that when you include his con sham of a business career.
 
People’s willingness to listen to this absolute moron over facts and science will never cease to amaze me.

If only this virus could take out those who insist that it’s a scam, the rest of us would all be better for it.
 
Lockdown in Berchtesgaden 80 years too late.

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So far, fall is exactly like most people predicted. The virus spreads at incredible rates, so that there's no way for effective contact tracing. Like suggested before, summer travels certainly exacerbated the problem, as it allowed populations to mix and then bring the virus back home. The responsible thing to do would have been to ban the holiday season, or only allow local travel, but no country was going to do that to their tourism sector. We are now going to pay the price.
 
Boston.com


Flying is less risky than going to the grocery store or eating out when it comes to catching COVID-19, according to a Harvard study released Tuesday.

The Aviation Public Health Initiative (APHI), a project of the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, researched practices that reduce the public health risks of flying during the pandemic and released phase one of its findings, a “gate-to-gate” analysis of the environment onboard the aircraft, and will release phase two, a “curb-to-curb” analysis of the environment inside the airport, in early 2021.

The study found that the airline industry’s layered approach of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPI) used to slow the spread of the disease, which spreads through droplets and aerosolized particles, has reduced the risk on planes to “very low levels.” The NPI used on planes, according to researchers, include High Efficiency Particulate Air (HEPA) filters, mandatory face mask policies, disinfection of high-touch surfaces, health attestations from passengers and crew before flying, and education and awareness of COVID-19.

This layered approach, with ventilation gate-to-gate, reduces the risk of SARS-CoV-2 transmission onboard aircraft below that of other routine activities during the pandemic, such as grocery shopping or eating out,” the report says.

There have been 13 peer-reviewed case studies surrounding COVID-19 transmission on planes, according to the report.

“After detailed analysis of these reports, it is the view of APHI that there have been a very low number of infections that could be attributed to exposure on aircraft during travel,” the organization wrote.

However, until there is widespread vaccination, there is always a risk of infection in public and the choice to travel is a personal one based on one’s risk tolerance and individual health considerations, the report noted.

“Our team found that, together with their high-performing ventilation systems, the actions that the airlines put in place — including mandatory use of face masks — significantly reduce risks of viral transmission aboard an airplane,” said Leonard Marcus, co-director of APHI, in the report. “With comprehensive adherence to these preventive measures by airlines and passengers, air travel, along with other sectors of society, can responsibly return to some level of normal activity as we await development of an effective vaccine.”

In September, Harvard’s T.H. Chan School of Public Health released a technical bulletin on face masks during air travel, calling universal mask compliance and correct use “critically important throughout the air travel process.”
 
I'm wondering if any of you made any changes to your living arrangements/real estate as a result of COVID? Anecdotally I am seeing quite a lot of the following among colleagues and friends:
- new graduates or younger people moving back home to save on rent and be available for their parents
- landlords dropping rent on downtown condos since the downtown is a ghost town
- many of my friends fleeing from small condos downtown and trying to get into anything with some outdoor space - houses, townhouses, etc
- people doing renovations - our contractor told us that he can't sleep because of how busy they have been, that people are trying to optimize their home spaces for working from home or they just have a bit of extra $ from not travelling, etc and are doing the renos they have been thinking of for a while.

We sold our house a month and a half ago, so COVID accelerated the move we anticipated next summer. A number of my colleagues bought semi-rural properties believing that they'll never return to the office 5 days a week, so why not reduce the size of their mortgage while actually getting more property/outdoor space. I really wonder how far reaching the implications will be the longer this persists.
 
I'm wondering if any of you made any changes to your living arrangements/real estate as a result of COVID? Anecdotally I am seeing quite a lot of the following among colleagues and friends:
- new graduates or younger people moving back home to save on rent and be available for their parents
- landlords dropping rent on downtown condos since the downtown is a ghost town
- many of my friends fleeing from small condos downtown and trying to get into anything with some outdoor space - houses, townhouses, etc
- people doing renovations - our contractor told us that he can't sleep because of how busy they have been, that people are trying to optimize their home spaces for working from home or they just have a bit of extra $ from not travelling, etc and are doing the renos they have been thinking of for a while.

We sold our house a month and a half ago, so COVID accelerated the move we anticipated next summer. A number of my colleagues bought semi-rural properties believing that they'll never return to the office 5 days a week, so why not reduce the size of their mortgage while actually getting more property/outdoor space. I really wonder how far reaching the implications will be the longer this persists.



it's all anecdotal, and my friend group tends to be more child-free than our hetero- age counterparts, but people seem to be staying put, although there's lots of talk of "it's so much cheaper upstate!" a few people have moved, but most are waiting it out. a lot of my NY friends are delighted to see some of the stroller crowd depart for the suburbs, giving the city an edgier, less Disney feel.

rents in NYC, especially Manhattan, have clearly gotten cheaper.

unclear what rents are doing in DC, but i am extremely glad we moved 3 years ago to a less dense neighborhood where we have a SFH and a yard, but a still highly walkable neighborhood. i still avoid the Metro and Ubers, so we are driving more if we have to go somewhere, but then parking is better.

we're doing lots of little projects on our house and had hoped to completely redo our kitchen, but to get the kitchen we want, we'd need help from a HELOC, and they've been frozen by the banks with no real indication about when credit will become available again. my guess is lots of people have been redoing rooms and buying lots of office furniture and converting spaces, but major construction (like a kitchen) might not be much different than before, or even less if credit is needed for big-bucks renovations.

when we discussed plans with a designer, they stressed that our formal dining -- which we love -- isn't at all what people are looking for, especially with families. they recommended turning that room into office/lounge and combining dining and kitchen into one big room. (we'd have to knock down a wall, which is how it got expensive). it's kind of depressing, in one way -- we moved here because open-floor plans annoy us, we like rooms, and it's a pleasure to serve a meal in a dining room with doors that shut so you don't see kitchen mess as folks are relaxing.

i realize this isn't a concern with people who have kids, like, under the age of 12, who probably aren't throwing dinner parties that go past midnight. but we might be moving along in a couple of years, and will do what's best for resale.
 
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I'm wondering if any of you made any changes to your living arrangements/real estate as a result of COVID? Anecdotally I am seeing quite a lot of the following among colleagues and friends:
- new graduates or younger people moving back home to save on rent and be available for their parents
- landlords dropping rent on downtown condos since the downtown is a ghost town
- many of my friends fleeing from small condos downtown and trying to get into anything with some outdoor space - houses, townhouses, etc
- people doing renovations - our contractor told us that he can't sleep because of how busy they have been, that people are trying to optimize their home spaces for working from home or they just have a bit of extra $ from not travelling, etc and are doing the renos they have been thinking of for a while.

We sold our house a month and a half ago, so COVID accelerated the move we anticipated next summer. A number of my colleagues bought semi-rural properties believing that they'll never return to the office 5 days a week, so why not reduce the size of their mortgage while actually getting more property/outdoor space. I really wonder how far reaching the implications will be the longer this persists.

Not changing my arrangements in the foreseeable future. Our lease ends in February, but we will stay in Brooklyn even if end up moving buildings if we find a better arrangement. I would like a balcony, for example, but it's not a deal breaker. Moving outside of the city is not something that has really interested us due to lifestyle, even with a small child, but I can certainly see the appeal. Might revisit this once there's more clarity on what "normal" work arrangements will be post-COVID, though both my wife and I work for pretty old-school outfits that are unlikely to go fully remote or even predominantly remote (maybe 3-days/week max).
 
For myself I’m thinking of moving to north county out of the downtown area.

Half the people in my complex don’t wear a mask, and I’d say it’s probably the same if you’re out walking around. Now people do put them on for grocery and to into a bar (to the patio) but what really bothers me is my living quarters.

Downtown is also turning into skid row and i can’t see that getting any better. In fact it’s only gotten worse and I’ve been in this location for three years.

I do know the downtown places are offering awesome deals like 2-3 months free to get people to move in. That also brings in the younger crowd who normally wouldn’t be able to afford rent here.

I do think it would be smart to look at a place that has more outdoor space. I’d miss the walkable places i have now but I’m more likely to catch hepatitis and covid if i stay.

San Diego has been fortunate to be in a climate that allows outdoor activities and dining 95% of the year.
 
i realize this isn't a concern with people who have kids, like, under the age of 12, who probably aren't throwing dinner parties that go past midnight. but we might be moving along in a couple of years, and will do what's best for resale.

For sure. All changes we made to our house in the last 2 years were done with a view to resale since we knew we were moving. It takes a lot of the stress off when you know that a wide range of people will be willing to consider your house.

I am shocked your HELOCs are frozen. Doesn't that have a pretty large negative impact on anyone who is selling one property and buying another? I imagine most people will need to draw from their HELOC for both the deposit and the downpayment and to decrease bridge financing.

Mortgages rates in Canada are absurdly low which has made single family homes in places like Toronto shoot up in value and sell instantly. We are taking on a mortgage on our new house and the rate we got is a 1.64% 5-yr fixed.
 
For sure. All changes we made to our house in the last 2 years were done with a view to resale since we knew we were moving. It takes a lot of the stress off when you know that a wide range of people will be willing to consider your house.

I am shocked your HELOCs are frozen. Doesn't that have a pretty large negative impact on anyone who is selling one property and buying another? I imagine most people will need to draw from their HELOC for both the deposit and the downpayment and to decrease bridge financing.

Mortgages rates in Canada are absurdly low which has made single family homes in places like Toronto shoot up in value and sell instantly. We are taking on a mortgage on our new house and the rate we got is a 1.64% 5-yr fixed.


it's funny, the designer we'll work with loves and wants our house (and has two small children), so once we're ready to pull the trigger, i'm going to tell her to build the kitchen she would want (within budget) because people like her are probably going to be the ones who most want where we live. if we do stay forever, which is possible, i'm sure we'll adapt.

the bank where we have our mortgage has definitely frozen HELOCs.

and interest rates are absurdly low here as well. we thought we got a great rate 3 years ago, and it's certainly better now.

when i walk my dog around the neighborhood, i'm seeing a lot of homes being gut reno'd, and redone very high end. i think this is anticipating a move of people from the core of DC (where we used to live) to a neighborhood like the one i'm in. this was one of the few remaining "affordable" neighborhoods with SFH inside the city, and that's probably going away. i see more and more children on the sidewalks every day. could be because of the pandemic, but it feels like a trend.
 
Mortgages rates in Canada are absurdly low which has made single family homes in places like Toronto shoot up in value and sell instantly.

This is the case in Chicago as well - this summer the real estate market was absurdly hot. I want to move and was tempted by a few places, but ultimately I think it's too risky at this moment. My sense is a lot of the people who jumped on low interest rates are stretching their incomes to own a house and will be in immediate trouble if they lose their job or even see hours/salary reduced.
 
I am a bit like you - I don't want my kitchen mess to be seen, but you can still have an open concept kitchen/family room (people with kids typically want this) if you get a house where that's sort of sequestered in the back with a more formal living room/dining room at the front that you can use for gatherings.

This pandemic has really only further increased the distance between the lower class and the middle/upper classes. Many white collar professionals just haven't felt it the same way. I hope that at least the falling rents will do a bit to assist those with lower budgets get into reasonable housing.

But so many people thought that there would be flight from tall apartment/condo buildings in the aftermath of 9/11 and it didn't happen. Now again, we are hearing nightmarish stories of people who live on the 45th floor and who go out only when they absolutely have to because their building is allowing one or two people per elevator and the wait to go up or down can be upwards of 40 minutes. It's pretty clear we are all going to go back to some form of at least targeted lockdown and if I was in a position to get out of that sort of living arrangement, I'd do it too.
 
I dream of moving out of this country all the time. Ireland would be my choice. Don't have the money to do it, but it's a nice fantasy.

Especially if, God forbid, nightmare scenario.
 
My family is a huge outlier; we picked up a lease on an even more expensive apartment than we were already living in, in a safe, wealthy area of the county.

Things worked out extremely well for Ashley and I:

1. She took a harsh 15% pay cut, but due to quirks in the California EDD system, we had access to the $600 weekly unemployment checks even though she wasn't unemployed. I haven't done the math in a while, but with the stimulus check added in, we may have come out ahead financially.

2. We were given a rent subsidy by Los Angeles County that was worth about $2000. This allowed us to afford the deposit on a new apartment.

3. I was able to find a salaried teaching position in August. Most people are losing jobs, so to experience such a significant career turning point at exactly the right time was a blessing.
 
Here in Sydney, I’ve heard a lot of anecdotal evidence of people leaving the city and moving up to the Central Coast. It’s an hours drive on a good day, but since working from home has become the new normal for many office jobs, why not live at the beach?

As much as I want working from home to become permanent, my wife and I have avoided making many changes to the house in terms of office space. We’re both comfortable at our desks, but once arrangements are confirmed following a vaccine we’ll probably set up something more professional at home.
 
My wife and me started looking for a bigger apartment this summer, as the one we are living in is pretty small. We originally planned moving for next year, as there were travel plans for this year and we don't yet live on two full incomes. But our current apartment is very small and after the lockdown, with all travel plans scrapped, the yearning for more space (and also a better location) was so great we just started looking around.
We put it on hold again, though. It's not particularly easy to find something at the moment. Most properties on the market are relatively newly built apartments that are way pricier than the average, certainly a strain on our budget, and the layout usually is one huge room that serves as kitchen and living room, and two small rooms, one usually also being extremely narrow.
Work is extremely busy for me, and my wife is just wrapping up her phD, so after running to viewing appointments and always returning a little disappointed, we figured we can survive a few more months in the current apartment and start again next year.
So far, I don't feel Covid has had an impact on the rental market in Berlin. Though you would hear a lot of internationals saying they'd return to their home countries, I'm not sure how many really went through with it. I also think a lot of apartments never really enter the market, but are just handed over through word of mouth. Also, the city introduced a rent freeze this year for all buildings built before 2014. The law is currently going through the courts and there's a good chance it will be struck down, or at least major changes required, and I have a feeling that some property owners rather wait and see what the court decides, than entering into rental contracts at 50-60% of what they could've charged before the law.
 
Wrong by a couple of days. 97k today. Damn.
There is still about 90 minutes before the day is closed out on Worldometers. We'll crack 100k.

It's incredible that the most populous state in the union by far barely cracked the top 5 for new cases today. Ohio nearly surpassed California.
 
It would appear that England is going into a near total lockdown from Wednesday. Details haven’t been formally announced, but word is that on Monday Boris will close everything except essential stores and places of education.

Better to do it now (or like a month ago) with the hope of some family visits at Christmas. People won’t stay locked down by themselves on Christmas Day anyway, so hopefully this will minimise the damage.

And apparently the eat out to help out program over the summer was responsible for about 20% of the outbreaks that period in return for limited economic benefits. Who’da thunk?

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/...navirus-infection-rates-study-finds-rwd3qd6gw
 
It would appear that England is going into a near total lockdown from Wednesday. Details haven’t been formally announced, but word is that on Monday Boris will close everything except essential stores and places of education.

Better to do it now (or like a month ago) with the hope of some family visits at Christmas. People won’t stay locked down by themselves on Christmas Day anyway, so hopefully this will minimise the damage.

And apparently the eat out to help out program over the summer was responsible for about 20% of the outbreaks that period in return for limited economic benefits. Who’da thunk?

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/...navirus-infection-rates-study-finds-rwd3qd6gw



It’s going to be a tough few months. Good luck.
 
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