Global Pandemic Part IV: IV Experimental Cocktails

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This new Brazil varient is ... terrifying.



Anything to share ? I feel like I’ve been keeping up with certain scientists / doctors and it hasn’t really come up much.

We know the South African mutation has caused some vaccine trouble but companies believe a booster should help (the J&J showed 100% no severe reaction after 48 days)
 
Anything to share ? I feel like I’ve been keeping up with certain scientists / doctors and it hasn’t really come up much.

We know the South African mutation has caused some vaccine trouble but companies believe a booster should help (the J&J showed 100% no severe reaction after 48 days)



The U.K. and South Africa strains have generated both the most coverage and the most research, but the most concerning may be the Brazilian one, also called P.1. In the Amazonian city of Manaus, where antibodies had been previously estimated in 76 percent of the population, there has been a horrifying and deadly dramatic second wave, right in the middle of Brazilian summer in a place believed to have developed a quite robust community immune protection and perhaps true herd immunity. A new “Comment” published Wednesday in the Lancet surveys what we know about the Manaus variant, and offers four possible explanations for what has happened there. None of them are good. Three are quite terrifying.

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2021/01/brazils-new-covid-strain-raises-big-and-scary-questions.html
 
Ah yes P1, and thank you for this. I do remember reading about the four scenarios.

I believe it’s shown up in Japan and China as well ?

I’m sure it’s here too. There’s also a SoCal mutation but not much is known about it yet
 
I think the only thing we have going for ourselves here is that the previous outgoing administration did such an awful job with this thing that all of the varients have likely already been here for a while and we haven't seen anything like that region in Brazil yet.

This is optimistic me speaking. Pessimistic me is on vacation.
 
As a Brazilian, a note of caution: very hard to separate the supposedly increased infection rate of the virus as found in the northern states from the utter incompetent federal and local response, which made the situation profoundly worse, including by lack of decisive action in areas that would curb the spread. So I’d wait for real data before worrying too much.
 
I think we’ll know for sure by end of February. If these mutations are just now taking hold we’ll see the growth

But if our utter incompetence has allowed these bugs here sooner than it could mean we are closer to the light at the end of the tunnel.

It could explain why CA numbers kept blowing up despite the shutdown in November. Holiday travel may be the other explanation too
 
As a Brazilian, a note of caution: very hard to separate the supposedly increased infection rate of the virus as found in the northern states from the utter incompetent federal and local response, which made the situation profoundly worse, including by lack of decisive action in areas that would curb the spread. So I’d wait for real data before worrying too much.



The article notes that. Let’s hope the data is just janky.
 
As a Brazilian, a note of caution: very hard to separate the supposedly increased infection rate of the virus as found in the northern states from the utter incompetent federal and local response, which made the situation profoundly worse, including by lack of decisive action in areas that would curb the spread. So I’d wait for real data before worrying too much.

Very true. I'll take anything that can help ease my worries a little :).
 
One thing I take as a positive sign: Israel's 7 day average case numbers have dropped like a rock since they started aggressively vaccinating their population. They're so far ahead of us per capita that we will be able to use their situation to judge the impact of the vaccines for the foreseeable future.
 
Slate.com

An anti-vaccine mob managed to shut down one of the largest vaccination sites in the country for almost an hour Saturday afternoon. A maskless horde of some 50 people gathered at the entrance to Dodger Stadium and the Los Angeles Fire Department closed the entrance for about an hour. That, of course, angered and frustrated people who had been waiting in line for hours for their turn to get a shot. Although several police officers went to the scene, no arrests were made. Despite the delay, everyone who was in line eventually got vaccinated.


The mob was made up of people who were part of both anti-vaccine and far-right groups. They carried signs against the vaccine and questioned the seriousness of the COVID-19 pandemic. “TAKE OFF YOUR MASK,” read one of the signs. “COVID=SCAM,” another said. One person wore a grim reaper costume and some even went up to people who were waiting in line to criticize and mock them for getting vaccinated. “You are becoming a lab rat,” one person said in a video posted on Twitter. “I’m doing this for you, not for me.” Another person told a driver who was waiting in line: “Have fun being a byproduct of Bill Gates.”


The sign says mark of the beast ahead


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The 7 day average for cases in the US is at its lowest point since mid November, right when the holiday season was beginning. Lowest number of hospitalizations since December 1. Good signs. Hopefully this carries on alongside the vaccination effort.
 
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The 7 day average for cases in the US is at its lowest point since mid November, right when the holiday season was beginning. Lowest number of hospitalizations since December 1. Good signs. Hopefully this carries on alongside the vaccination effort.

I have my concerns about a Super Bowl spike. After that we should be good till St. Patrick's Day in terms of knuckleheads getting together. *Well outside of New Orleans on Mardi Gras, but at least that's just one locale).
 
One must wonder if the drop is because post holiday or because inoculation of medical staff and patients/likely-patients is maybe cutting cross contamination or cutting likely new positive patients (elderly and sick being more likely to check into the hospital).
 
Well I got round 1 of the Pfizer vaccine today, and it has completely knocked me on my ass. Hope the side effects are less pronounced for anyone else who gets it.
 
?

He was a very special man


BBC


Captain Sir Tom Moore has died with coronavirus.


The 100-year-old, who raised almost £33m for NHS charities by walking laps of his garden, was admitted to Bedford Hospital on Sunday.

The Queen led tributes to Capt Sir Tom, "recognising the inspiration he provided for the whole nation and others across the world".

His daughters said they "shared laughter and tears" with their father in their final few hours together.


Announcing his death, Hannah Ingram-Moore and Lucy Teixeira said the last year of their father's life had been "nothing short of remarkable".


He tested positive for Covid-19 last week. His family said due to other medication he was receiving for pneumonia, he was unable to be vaccinated.


The Army veteran won the nation's hearts by walking 100 laps of his garden in Marston Moretaine in Bedfordshire last year during the first lockdown, raising money for NHS Charities Together.


He was credited with lifting the nation's spirits and his saying "Tomorrow will be a good day" trended on social media.


He was knighted by the Queen in July in a special ceremony at Windsor Castle.


A Buckingham Palace spokeswoman said: "Her Majesty very much enjoyed meeting Capt Sir Tom and his family at Windsor last year. Her thoughts, and those of the royal family, are with them, recognising the inspiration he provided for the whole nation and others across the world.



In a statement, Prime Minister Boris Johnson said: "Captain Sir Tom Moore was a hero in the truest sense of the word. In the dark days of the Second World War he fought for freedom and in the face of this country's deepest post-war crisis he united us all, he cheered us all up, and he embodied the triumph of the human spirit.

"He became not just a national inspiration but a beacon of hope for the world. Our thoughts are with his daughter Hannah and all his family."

The flag above 10 Downing Street has been flying at half-mast in tribute and Mr Johnson has spoken to Mrs Ingram-Moore to offer his condolences.


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Also a tragic indictment on the state of the UK that he even felt that he had to do this, while the NHS has been underfunded for years.
 
One must wonder if the drop is because post holiday or because inoculation of medical staff and patients/likely-patients is maybe cutting cross contamination or cutting likely new positive patients (elderly and sick being more likely to check into the hospital).
Probably both, but I'm with you that the vaccines are probably the main reason. The rates were going up even before the holidays. The holidays caused a spike, but considering as it's still winter and cold AF we'd likely see cases/hospitalizations/deaths continuing to rise if not for the vaccine roll out.

Now imagine where we'd be if the previous administration had given a shit.
 
Since January 24, the number of active coronavirus cases in California has dropped from 1,727,000 to 1,678,000. This doesn't sound like a lot, it's only about 3%, but the last two weeks have been our ONLY period of steady decline in terms of active cases during the entire pandemic. You can observe plateauing and individual days of decline, but not entire weeks of it.

The effect of the vaccines is very real and it has become apparent quickly.
 
Since January 24, the number of active coronavirus cases in California has dropped from 1,727,000 to 1,678,000. This doesn't sound like a lot, it's only about 3%, but the last two weeks have been our ONLY period of steady decline in terms of active cases during the entire pandemic. You can observe plateauing and individual days of decline, but not entire weeks of it.

The effect of the vaccines is very real and it has become apparent quickly.




From what I can tell, although the rollout is slower than it could/should have been, the US is doing the vaccine pretty well, second best to only the UK amongst larger countries. Israel also seems to be doing this really well.

Let’s hope it continues. Stay strong everyone. The fatigue is real, but we’re getting closer to the finish line. And the days are starting to get longer (in the northern hemisphere at least).



https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/world/covid-vaccinations-tracker.html
 
It’s a race against the UK variant.

It doesn’t help when states like Iowa say it’s all over and release all restrictions. Ditto for Supreme Court saying CA has to allow indoor church gatherings.

There is definitely light at end of tunnel but i think we got one more big surge left in us until we get into the open
 
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