Can Egypt hold it together? President's son, family flee to Britain

[mama cass]

that's worrying... i've just read that some foreign countries (US and India) are starting to plan evacuations...

[Jive Turkey]

[deep]

Mubarack will not be in Egypt 6 months from now.
or even 4 months, 3 months?


I'll put the over / under guess at >>>>>>>>>>>> 21 days.

[Earnie Shavers]

Less. Much less. Surely.

[deep]

So you are going with under 21 days.
that would be my guess, too. I could have put it at 14? 10?

Right now, if I could write the outcome.

I think I would go with something like this.

Egypt was scheduled to hold elections in September.

Stay with that. Mubarak hangs on for as long as he can, if he leaves too soon, we could have more chaos, with the public wanting blood.
So he announces that he planned on leaving office in September but, due to circumstances, or even because of a health issue he will step down now.

A temporary unity government is formed until and open and fair election is held and new government chosen.

the temporary coalition Government should consist of:
Mohamed ElBaradei, a leading opposition figure
Amr Moussa, head of the Arab League
the new V P
with cooperation of the popular Egyptian Army

[mama cass]

i thought there were already some elections last November??

ok... just checked and those were the parliamentary elections...

[deep]

those elections were not viewed as being fair

if anything, they have contributed to the grievances.

[mama cass]

yes, i know

but they were parliamentary elections as opposed to presidential elections

[yolland]

CNN, Jan. 31

After 30 years of mostly unchallenged rule, Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak opened the door Sunday to talks with rival political parties while calling out those who, he claimed, used religion to "spread fear" through rampant hooliganism.

...The president, again recognizing the depth of the unrest, urged those charged with shaping the new Cabinet--specifically, his newly appointed Prime Minister Ahmed Shafiq--to pursue "a wide range of dialogue with all the (political) parties." Such discussions, he said, "will achieve the democratic process."

...As he did in a nationally televised early Saturday, Mubarak referenced the unsettled security situation across the country, in part due to a void created after police largely abandoned their posts. He called on new government leaders to "stop all the violence by whoever commits it," while appearing to criticize the Muslim Brotherhood, the country's largest opposition party. "The citizens and the young people of Egypt have gone out to the streets in peaceful demonstration asking for their right for the freedom of speech," Mubarak said. "However, their demonstrations have been infiltrated by a group of people who use the name of religion who don't take into consideration the constitution rights and citizenship values."

...Whereas Mubarak's earlier speech dwelled mostly on security, his comments Sunday touched relatively more on substantive political and economic reforms. The president offered few specific ideas, besides ordering that government subsidies not be touched. Yet he did charge the new government to "regain the trust in our economy." He mentioned the need to "control unemployment," keep inflation low and keep prices of key commodities in check. "I trust in your ability to realize new economic achievements (and) to relieve the suffering of the people," Mubarak said.

That's the generals talking. Frame the Muslim Brotherhood as the "mysterious" menace behind the looting (never mind the hundreds of reports of the army refusing to stop it; never mind why the police withdrew just before it started and where they "disappeared" to...no, it's a theologically inspired looting jihad!), as a pretext for ensuring the MB's exception from that "wide range of dialogue" promise. And even more importantly, make clear that government subsidies of the military and its monopolies on producing goods for the public sector--cables, armaments, appliances, construction material--are not to be tampered with (the military is thought to control well over a third of Egypt's economy).

[Earnie Shavers]

And he'd be hoping for the longer game, where locking MB out is in part in the hope that they do actually get pissed off about it and create instability. Even if its legitimate, just political instability. These guys have all extensively used the War on Terror as pretext to hammering down even harder on any kind of dissent. So he lets a little democracy in in, but locks these guys out, he gives it a bit of time and then points to the lack of stability as some dangerous/islamist/whatever and uses that as his excuse to revert.

[mama cass]

Whereas Mubarak's earlier speech dwelled mostly on security, his comments Sunday touched relatively more on substantive political and economic reforms. The president offered few specific ideas, besides ordering that government subsidies not be touched. Yet he did charge the new government to "regain the trust in our economy." He mentioned the need to "control unemployment," keep inflation low and keep prices of key commodities in check. "I trust in your ability to realize new economic achievements (and) to relieve the suffering of the people," Mubarak said

he's spouting such bollox - i mean, he's been in power for 30 years already - he should have made these promises long ago...

[Earnie Shavers]

Originally Posted by deep

Right now, if I could write the outcome.
I think I would go with something like this.

That would be best - and keep the September election date, time for people to get organised. But at the moment its really all down to the military, and what they're really up to still seems to be Mixed messages.

[mama cass]

last night i read on the Guardian interactive map that Mubarak was in Sharm el Sheikh, this has now been updated and his whereabouts have been removed, but i think it's terrible if he is/has been there and has thus literally surrounded himself with a buffer zone of tourists...

worrying BBC report from yesterday...

BBC News - Sharm el-Sheikh: 'There was a barricade in front of the hotel'

[deep]

is Bono safe??

Cairo: Anger starting to focus on Israel, US

By BY MELANIE LIDMAN, JPOST CORRESPONDENT IN CAIRO
01/30/2011 21:47

Reporters Notebook: "Where is your democracy?" protesters ask in anti-American, anti-Mubarak rallies.


CAIRO – Saturday’s optimism on the streets of Cairo for imminent political change gave way to anger on Sunday, as thousands of demonstrators became increasingly frustrated with the lack of response from major world leaders, especially the US.

During the main protest on Sunday in downtown Cairo, one man painted a 20- meter-long message in flowing Arabic cursive that echoed across the square: “Go Away, Mubarak, you are from the Americans, and you’re working for them!”

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Egyptians understand that the world is waiting to see if President Hosni Mubarak falls to popular pressure before major leaders decide which side to support. But this is infuriating the demonstrators, who realize that six days of unrest have not accomplished their goal and that they need united international pressure in order to topple the almost-30-year incumbent.

The protests have lacked a clear leader to unite them and provide an alternative to Mubarak, and demonstrators are beginning to focus their wrath not just on Mubarak and the country’s widespread corruption, but also on the United States and, to a lesser extent, Israel. They blame Israel and the US for supporting a government because it is convenient for them, not because it is good for the Egyptian people.

“The USA does not support democracy; they’re supporting Israel, which is like their baby,” said Ahmed, a 26-year-old Cairo resident. “They think Egypt is functional because it’s in favor of their considerations.”

“I don’t care if we have peace [with Israel] or not,” Ahmed continued, echoing the indifference of many demonstrators who don’t have a clear agenda for what they want a future Egypt to look like, as long as it does not include Mubarak. “But will Israel allow us to have a real president? For example, Turkey elected an Islamic government, but it was their choice. Will Israel give us the freedom to make the same choice?” he asked.

Demonstrators are relying on the foreign press to get their message to Obama.

“Isn’t this democracy?” they asked me over and over when I said I was a journalist from America, incredulous that the country held as the pinnacle of world democracy could ignore such widespread popular sentiment.

Click here for full Jpost coverage of unrest in

Jerusalem Post | Breaking News from Israel, the Middle East & the Jewish World



“Obama has to be on our side. Where is your democracy?” asked Osam L, who works at a foreign bank in Cairo.

“You say Arabs are just donkeys, but the USA is supporting the system, not the people.”

The Jewish community in Cairo and Alexandria both declined to speak with the media, but told The Jerusalem Post that all of its members were safe and going about their daily routine as normally as possible.

Life is slowly returning to Cairo streets after nearly a week of unrest. Many of the stores in the downtown area remained shuttered, but convenience stores and cell phone kiosks were doing brisk business. There was significantly more traffic on the roads, and public transportation and trash collection were partially operational.

At 3:55 pm on Sunday, two fighter jets flew low over the city half a dozen times, ostensibly to remind everyone of the 4:00 pm curfew. The scare tactic was successful – by 4:30, the streets were mostly empty of cars as throngs of people headed on foot toward Tahrir Square.

Sunday’s protests were much less violent, although there was more anger directed at international leaders.

“What you are seeing here is an explosion. We have no other choice,” yelled one demonstrator.

The main protest in Tahrir Square continued to be attended by thousands of demonstrators from all walks of life – toddlers with small flags draped around their shoulders raising a fist in solidarity, old men in traditional garb walking slowly with canes near the sidewalks, giggling school girls, whole families marching arm and arm, young professionals as well as laborers.

“Those people that say we’re out here because of food or oil prices, that’s not true,” said Osam L. “I have enough to eat, thank God. I’m here for my freedom.”

Cairo: Anger starting to focus on Israel, US

[deep]

Originally Posted by Earnie Shavers

That would be best - and keep the September election date, time for people to get organised. But at the moment its really all down to the military, and what they're really up to still seems to be Mixed messages.

Egyptian military pledges not to use force against public -

it is getting clearer

Mubarak is struggling to find a way to save his legacy. (in his own mind)

He would rather go down as the leader that gave democracy to the Egyptian people, than the 2011 version of the Shah of Iran.

[AliEnvy]

"Never let a crisis go to waste".

Poking the Great Satan will inevitably lead to a reason to "deal" with Iran.

[Earnie Shavers]

Originally Posted by deep

it is getting clearer

Mubarak is struggling to find a way to save his legacy. (in his own mind)

He would rather go down as the leader that gave democracy to the Egyptian people, than the 2011 version of the Shah of Iran.

Yes, that's the way they've been acting too. It just didn't seem like it was fully trusted.

On the anti-US/anti-Israel thing, it really doesn't seem like that, from interviews/sentiments on the ground. There's definitely mocking of the US at least, but it seems more with an awareness of the sticky spot the US are in, not malice. I'd say if this does evolve into full/proper secular democracy, the US will have no problem still being "in" with Egypt, they just might have to take a little public slap down, followed by a little public groveling, but mainly, just keep the cash rolling and it will all be sweet.

Would also suggest (quietly - don't want to come across as some nutty conspiracy whatever) that the JPost might be trying to stir that idea up. Israel are absolutely (and understandably) firmly in Mubaraks corner.

Stupidly flicked off the real news channels - Al Jazeera/BBC - and over to Fox for a minute. Their stupidity knows no bounds: If this descends into massive chaos/Islamist rule, it is somehow directly Obama's fault. If it flowers into beautiful democracy, it is of course directly W's doing!

[deep]

That won't happen. Iran alliance.


but things are moving in a way, I expected

Egypt vice prime minister announces dialogue with political parties as riots persist


Suleiman added on state T.V. that the dialogue will involve both constitutional and legislative reforms, a request voiced by anti-government protesters.
By Haaretz Service and News Agencies Tags: Israel news Egypt protests

Egyptian Vice President Omar Suleiman said on Monday that President Hosni Mubarak has asked him to start a dialogue with all the political parties as riots continue on the eve of their seventh day.

Suleiman added on state T.V. that the dialogue will involve both constitutional and legislative reforms, a request voiced by anti-government protesters.

President Hosni Mubarak announced Saturday that Omar Suleiman, the intelligence chief with military experience, would be vice president and in prime position for the top job if Mubarak does not run for president again in September.

Suleiman is the first vice-president of Egypt to be appointed since Mubarak first took power almost thirty years ago. Mubarak himself occupied the position of vice-president under the former Egyptian president Anwar Sadat, and took the reigns of power after Sadat was assassinated in 1981.

Suleiman's announcement comes after six days of unrest that have killed more than 100 people but the two sides have reached a stalemate. Protesters refuse to go, while the army is not moving them after publicly stating that they will not use force against civilians. The longer protesters stay unchallenged, the more untenable Mubarak's position seems.

Protesters in Tahrir Square - epicenter of the earthquake that has sent shudders through the Middle East and among global investors - have dismissed Mubarak's appointment of military men as his vice president and prime minister.

His promises of economic reform to address public anger at rising prices, unemployment and the huge gap between rich and poor have failed to halt their broader calls for a political sweep out of Mubarak and his associates.

Protesters have called for a general strike on Monday and what they bill as a "protest of the millions" march on Tuesday, to press their demands for democracy which could spell the end for the military establishment which has run post-colonial Egypt since the 1950s.

Suleimans announcement comes just one day after the Muslim Brotherhood, Egypt's largest opposition group, announced that it is in talks with other anti-government figures to form a national unity government without President Hosni Mubarak, a group official told DPA on Sunday.

Although the Muslim Brotherhood is officially banned from running for elections for parliament, some movement members have presented candidacy for parliament as independents.

Gamal Nasser, a spokesman for the Brotherhood, told DPA that his group was in talks with Mohammed ElBaradei - the former UN nuclear watchdog chief - to form a national unity government without the National Democratic Party of Mubarak.

The group is also demanding an end to the draconian Emergency Laws, which grant police wide-ranging powers The laws have been used often to arrest and harass the Islamist group.

Nasser said his group would not accept any new government with Mubarak. On Saturday the Brotherhood called on President Mubarak to relinquish power in a peaceful manner following the resignation of the Egyptian cabinet.

http://www.haaretz.com/news/internat...rsist-1.340441

[deep]

Originally Posted by Earnie Shavers

over to Fox for a minute. Their stupidity knows no bounds: If this descends into massive chaos/Islamist rule, it is somehow directly Obama's fault. If it flowers into beautiful democracy, it is of course directly W's doing!

Glenn Beck is fun to watch, his real theatrics are so much better than any parody on Stewart or SNL.

[yolland]

"We Are Not Leaving This Square, No Matter What"