Can Egypt hold it together? President's son, family flee to Britain

[AliEnvy]

Egypt protests: America's secret backing for rebel leaders behind uprising - Telegraph

[Mrs. Garrison]

Originally Posted by Bonoa

I really have to go back to see Egypt again . I've been there for three months back in 2006 and I was planning to do an internship there soon at an excavation.
Yes, back then when we visited the eastern Delta (Avaris, Tell el-Dab'a) we had two trucks full of soldiers following us around 'for our safety'. We were with 10 people and I think they wanted to make sure we wouldn't steal things from excavation sites. During other trips we had a young soldier who traveled with us, a very cool guy. Of course we made a lot of political incorrect pics as we were allowed to pose with his Uzi.

Oh, yeah, Stella.... have you tried Saqqara beer, with Djosers Step pyramid on the label? One time we drank so much of it that the next day only the sight of the pyramid of Saqqara almost made us sick...

We rode buses from Cairo West to Alexandria for our mission, and along the way we had an escort of motorcycles and small vehicles, all armed.

IN Alexandria we stayed in Egyptian military officers' quarters, overlooking the mediterranean sea. Once we had played our war games, it was time for a trip back to Cairo and the pyramids. One thing that sticks with me is the perfume shops and the factories where CHILDREN were making rugs. I could not go inside the sweat shops and watch the children make the rugs, i just could not bear to.

We visited all of the main tourist attractions, Sphinx, Pyramids, etc. The pyramids are absolutely amazing...im sure i dont need to tell you that.

Made friends with some Egyptian military officers who were liasions with our military. I too have pictures posing with AK-47's or whatever they had, have to look now.

I was amazed how much alcohol we were able to buy from street vendors downton, its easy to lose oneself in the history and the setting sun if you let it.

[sue4u2]

Originally Posted by Canadiens1131

There's an "internet kill switch" bill floating around somewhere in the U.S. House of Reps right at this moment.

Considering ICANN is in Marina del Ray, CA, I'm surprised the rest of the world is not more uppity about this.

Let them pull a kill switch in this country and you will see the 60's all over again - a hundred times over. The young people will finally have something to unite against and 40 an overs will be out in full force and EVERYONE! will be standing up for their civil liberties.

As far as Egypt going to the Islamic extreme, I don't see that happening. They are trying to get out from under what they feel has been a dictatorship style government. They aren't about to give that up to the Muslim Brotherhood extremeist which would further restrict their lives. I hope.

Of course I'm just dealing with what I hear from our news outlets but it's a "be careful what you wish for moment" - for sure."

[Canadiens1131]

Political struggle in the age of social media:

YouTube - The Most AMAZING video on the internet #Egypt #jan25

[MissVelvetDress_75]

Originally Posted by sue4u2

Let them pull a kill switch in this country and you will see the 60's all over again - a hundred times over. The young people will finally have something to unite against and 40 an overs will be out in full force and EVERYONE! will be standing up for their civil liberties.

[deep]

this is about to implode

Mubarak will not be able to ride this out,

the best outcome will be a military coup, with a promise and commitment of an election in 6 to 12 months.

[deep]

social media + flash mobs = government collapse

[deep]

in many ways this is similar to 79 and Iran

[deep]

social order is collapsing, chaos is a real possibility

there are three main parties to this equation

1. the people, for the most part, 80+ % want Mubarack gone.
2. the Military
3. the Government, that is one person Mubarak and 100% of the Government wants Mubarak to stay.

the only question is what no. 2 the Military wants
I think the Generals are still assessing their own interests.

[yolland]

The outlines of his clampdown strategy seem clear enough now. Send your goons-for-hire into the wealthy neighborhoods and shopping malls and treasured public spaces like the National Museum; call off the police and order the army to stand around doing nothing as they loot stores, smash windshields and vandalize priceless mummies. Remove your offending heirs to the safety of London. Dismiss your cabinet (the time-honored token reboot of failing dictators everywhere), appoint as your new PM a pro-US former air force chief (just like you!), and presage a "fairer" transition of office--without threatening the status quo--by finally designating your (pro-Fatah, pro-Maronite, anti-Hamas, anti-Hezbollah, anti-Brotherhood) intelligence chief as your heir apparent. Then wait for the media to run with the "protesters out of control, looting and burning their fellow men's property" narrative, until the time is right to make a show of loosing the army on these "criminals."

On the one hand, rumor has it that the army is fraternizing warmly with protesters and assuring them no shots will be fired; on the other hand, rumor also has it that they are following Mubarak's orders not to stop the goons. I don't know what to think. If the protesters hold out at this rate, it is hard to imagine the army moving against them.

(Unsurprisingly, the Israelis have evacuated all their diplomats and removed their flags from their embassies and consulates.)

Originally Posted by deep

the best outcome will be a military coup, with a promise and commitment of an election in 6 to 12 months.

By "best," you mean as opposed to a 1979-style power vacuum?

[deep]

there is no 'good' outcome

we can not put the toothpaste back into the tube

that is the only least worse outcome, I can think of.

it would be nice if the Military could get ElBaradei to head an interim government until free and open elections



I think this if fast becoming a wild situation, completely out of control, impossible to predict.

[yolland]

It's not clear to me what kind of traction El Baradei really has. He's the most palatable obvious alternative to Washington, certainly, but from an Egyptian POV, he's a virtual unknown who's lived in Europe for decades and carries some taint of collaboration with the powers arrayed against them. Still, and especially if interim, better him than Mubarak's man, I guess.

[deep]

Originally Posted by yolland

The outlines of his clampdown strategy seem clear enough now. Send your goons-for-hire into the wealthy neighborhoods and shopping malls and treasured public spaces like the National Museum; call off the police and order the army to stand around doing nothing as they loot stores, smash windshields and vandalize priceless mummies. Remove your offending heirs to the safety of London. Dismiss your cabinet (the time-honored token reboot of failing dictators everywhere), appoint as your new PM a pro-US former air force chief (just like you!), and presage a "fairer" transition of office--without threatening the status quo--by finally designating your (pro-Fatah, pro-Maronite, anti-Hamas, anti-Hezbollah, anti-Brotherhood) intelligence chief as your heir apparent. Then wait for the media to run with the "protesters out of control, looting and burning their fellow men's property" narrative, until the time is right to make a show of loosing the army on these "criminals."

that let the looting happen, so citizens will think again and want Mubarak to take charge and restore order will be Mubarak's last strategy to regain support from the street.

I don't see it as a winning strategy at all, it will just exasperate anger towards him, people will see it as a continuum of all the bad that happened because of a corrupt Government that fails to protect the people.

[deep]

some of the American TV coverage is pretty stupid

hearing about Americans on vacation in Egypt,
having a hard time because there is no 'room service'.

and then we have Egyptians being shot dead as they are walking across the street

[financeguy]

Originally Posted by deep

there is no 'good' outcome

What an extraordinary post. Are you saying you prefer the current regimes?

[deep]

I have written a few posts in this thread

do you see anything that suggest I support the status quo?

[financeguy]

Originally Posted by deep

I have written a few posts in this thread

do you see anything that suggest I support the status quo?

I've seen a few that indicate that you possibly don't understand the dynamic at work here.

Bernanke's put option has led to hyperinflation abroad (albeit, not yet in the US) which trends to starvation in countries like Tunisia and Egypt, and plausibly, other borderline developing countries. Saudi and Kuwait possibly have enough cash to buy off the dissent.

Ergo, revolutionary conditions exist in African countries because of monetary policy in the west - no more, and no less.

[the iron horse]

“May you live in interesting times.”

No one quite knows the origin of that statement, though it’s purported to be a Chinese proverb — or even a curse.

Here we go

[the iron horse]

BBC News - Egypt protests: Hosni Mubarak under world pressure

[Earnie Shavers]

Interesting developments right now - the army has been so far seen as quite supportive of the protesters, they've been acting that way at least, although there's been a question mark over 'for how long'/'whats their longer game', and in the last couple of hours a lot of newer US made tanks have been seen rolling into central Cairo - these are elite units, usually based closer to borders. It seems suddenly there's been a shift in terms of perception - suddenly the army are looking a bit more sinister.