WA and NSW are a worry alright. WA has been a weak spot for years. I wouldn't be so certain about the Coalition taking back New England. They had a decade or more to elect a Coalition member if that is what they wanted... although a figure of Windsor's stature will be sorely missed.
Queensland is critical.
I guess to wax optimistic, I'd hope they can hold most of what they hold now - surely not an impossible ask - and gain just a little. Somewhere, anywhere. It's all bums on seats in the end.
Oh yeah, and Katter. That's the other thing. I may not support him especially, but he represents two things:
1. Old style economic nationalism... I'd almost just go ahead and say old laborism... that is completely and utterly opposed to the modern neoliberal consensus. Both major parties talk the talk to an extent, but for the Coalition, it's gospel. It's in their bones. Why else did Katter abandon the Nationals in the first place?
2. A fly in the ointment for Tony Abbott. Not a Joh For PM scale fly in the ointment ... those days have passed... but a fly nonetheless.
There's Clive Palmer's party too, but I regard it as an irrelevance. Still, both sting the Coalition more than they do Labor.
Beyond all that, there is the outside possibility that the Coalition party room do blink where their present leader is concerned. I don't consider it very likely - Malcolm Turnbull is the inner city liberal's wet dream of Liberal Party leadership, but the present day Liberal Party, the up and comers, the creeps and boofheads from the Young Libs, despise someone like him - but it's possible. Either outcome amounts to Tony Abbott never being the Prime Minister of Australia.
I think both New England and Lyne will unquestionably go back to the Coalition. Classic cases of an ex-Nat retaining the seat as an independent due to personal popularity, but as soon as they retire the seat bounces right back into the Nat court. I just cannot imagine the ALP winning those areas at all, especially after the criticism both Windsor and Oakeshott endured for supporting Gillard from their constituents.
I was convinced that with Gillard, Queensland was so fucked that the ALP might lose every seat apart from Rudd's and maybe Swan's. Now with Rudd back, well, it seems some analysis suggests they could pick up seats. I wish I could remember which seat it was, it was either in the Cairns or Townsville area, which in 2010 the ALP lost for the first time - and lost it to some absolute nutjob too. You'd expect that might swing back. The one other thing the ALP really has going for it in Queensland is that they can campaign HARD against Campbell Newman. A lot of Queenslanders are fundamentally morons (I can say this as somebody who lived there for a decade) who routinely take out their hatred of a state government at the federal elections and vice versa.
Katter really is a huge problem for the Coalition. He has a good personal rapport with Rudd, and if he somehow even picks up seats, Rudd will have an easier time courting him than Abbott. Palmer, you're right - he's nothing more than a freak sideshow and I really doubt he'll win anything.
I'm actually starting to believe that had Rudd called a short sitting of parliament, the Libs would've rolled Abbott in favour of Turnbull. With Turnbull at the helm, the Libs would have the election in the bag; it would be an absolute rout. I think this is why Rudd has called the election now, to avoid that possibility - if he'd waited much longer, he would've had to call parliament. As it stands I don't think there's any way, barring truly extraordinary means, for the Libs to roll Abbott.
I am pretty disheartened by Rudd's moves on asylum seekers, his 'PNG solution'... as much for forcing this one wretched issue even further into the centre of political life in this country as for the actual announced policy.
Co-signed. The fact that this a major political issue in this country ahead of absolutely crucial things like education, healthcare, the Reef, etc. is just mindboggling and the way it is discussed in the most callous, statistical terms with no regard for basic humanity makes me lose faith in this country's media, public discourse, and electors. I've tried to put into words exactly how this all makes me feel and I can't. It's a shitstain on Australia and it's going to look very ugly in the history books.
It most definitely won't hurt him. It's a great move politically.
This is possibly the worst part about it. Fuck you, voters of Australia.
