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Old 08-21-2013, 04:00 AM   #141
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Feminist lemurs?

I'd be up for that.
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Old 08-21-2013, 04:38 AM   #142
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That's one option, certainly.
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Old 08-21-2013, 05:39 AM   #143
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The Institute of Public Affairs can seriously get fucked.

Tonight's debate was better than the first. Better questions, and Rudd really sassed Abbott a couple of times - yet again, Rudd is simply the more eloquent and engaging speaker. Abbott has the charisma of cardboard. But also yet again, that debate really didn't tell us anything we didn't already know. Far too many questions were not directly answered.
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Ian McCulloch the U2 fan:
"Who buys U2 records anyway? It's just music for plumbers and bricklayers. Bono, what a slob. You'd think with all that climbing about he does, he'd look real fit and that. But he's real fat, y'know. Reminds me of a soddin' mountain goat."
"And as for Bono, he needs a colostomy bag for his mouth."

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Old 08-21-2013, 07:33 AM   #144
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An improvement on the whole. Abbott is really quite embarrassing.

The other thing about Abbott - and here I'm probably differing from the choir a bit - is that I see his position as historically weak. As a leader of his own party, he is very weak. He won his position by a bare majority. His own frontbench shadow ministers routinely contradict him on policy. I actually believe what he says about Workchoices. I believe it probably reflects his own background and instincts. I don't believe he would be much more than a figurehead in office, a nominal chairman of the board. It's the rest of them who concern me.

And to reach back to the government of Malcolm Fraser, for heavens' sakes, to grab a bit of conservationist cred. Heavens to Betsy. Fraser isn't even a member of a party that has subsequently disowned him and his legacy.
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Old 08-21-2013, 08:20 AM   #145
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Yeah, that Fraser comment baffled me - Rudd should've leapt all over it. I can understand drawing on the Howard legacy, especially given Abbott's position as a Howard minister. But Fraser? He thinks today's Libs are wankers. Fuck me, he endorses Sarah Hanson-Young, if not quite her party. You'd think Abbott would call Fraser a dangerous extremist, not praise him.

I'm not sure I differ too much from you about Abbott's weakness as leader. One of the great failings of the ALP propaganda machine is that they have never been able to make anything of this - I guess because it would just backfire on them though. I've been discussing this with a few colleagues lately. They are convinced/afraid Abbott will be a two-term PM. I think the Liberals will be a 2-3 term government only if it's not under Abbott. Let's face it, Abbott doesn't run the Libs; major business interests do. Major businesses love love love Malcolm Turnbull - and conveniently so does the public. The Liberals can't afford a messy spill because it would contradict so many of their ALP critiques, but I wouldn't be shocked that 12-18 months into an Abbott government, he will be persuaded to quietly stand aside because of a "family crisis" or something of the sort. "You've achieved your dream mate, now here's the script, step aside for Malcolm." If Abbott stays, the ALP should be able to get its shit together in opposition and make his ministry a one-term government. If Turnbull takes the reins in a publicly acceptable way, he'll be in until 2019.

Incidentally, part of the reason why I think Abbott, if he stays the full three years, will be a one-term leader is that he really "won" election in 2010. Sure, Australia has only had one single term government since WWII, but the pattern of "winning" an election too early has some credence. The ALP really "won" in 1969, achieving a substantial swing against the Coalition, but it just had too much ground to make up to actually form government. When Whitlam did finally win in 1972, it was only through a much smaller swing. 1972 was more the victory of an incumbent than a change of government; 1975's loss had extenuating circumstances, but Whitlam had still in the public mind been the preferred leader for two terms - he was not a true single-term incumbent. Then in 1993, Hewson lost the unloseable election; when Howard won in 1996, it was a result that the Coalition had already "won" three years earlier - and then in 1998, the ALP actually won the popular two-party-preferred vote and only failed to form government due to the uneven nature of the swing. Similarly, in 2010, Abbott really "won" the election but failed to get across the line by the faintest margin. A win this year will really be an incumbent's win. So come an election in 2016 or so, he won't possess the advantage incumbents often enjoy after their very first term.
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Ian McCulloch the U2 fan:
"Who buys U2 records anyway? It's just music for plumbers and bricklayers. Bono, what a slob. You'd think with all that climbing about he does, he'd look real fit and that. But he's real fat, y'know. Reminds me of a soddin' mountain goat."
"And as for Bono, he needs a colostomy bag for his mouth."

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Old 08-21-2013, 08:59 AM   #146
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Axver View Post
Incidentally, part of the reason why I think Abbott, if he stays the full three years, will be a one-term leader is that he really "won" election in 2010. Sure, Australia has only had one single term government since WWII, but the pattern of "winning" an election too early has some credence. The ALP really "won" in 1969, achieving a substantial swing against the Coalition, but it just had too much ground to make up to actually form government. When Whitlam did finally win in 1972, it was only through a much smaller swing. 1972 was more the victory of an incumbent than a change of government; 1975's loss had extenuating circumstances, but Whitlam had still in the public mind been the preferred leader for two terms - he was not a true single-term incumbent. Then in 1993, Hewson lost the unloseable election; when Howard won in 1996, it was a result that the Coalition had already "won" three years earlier - and then in 1998, the ALP actually won the popular two-party-preferred vote and only failed to form government due to the uneven nature of the swing. Similarly, in 2010, Abbott really "won" the election but failed to get across the line by the faintest margin. A win this year will really be an incumbent's win. So come an election in 2016 or so, he won't possess the advantage incumbents often enjoy after their very first term.
There is something in all of that. Although his government was a little more than a single term (technically) Whitlam indeed won twice before he 'won'.

And Abbott kinda/sorta won 2010 on the same metric, sure. If he were a decent negotiator in a position of authority, he might have cobbled together a minority government. But he didn't.

Of course hindsight can fool us a little. I was around in the mid nineties and I can remember handwringing think pieces about how Howard was the last roll of the dice, predictions of permanent extinction for the Liberal Party if they couldn't turn it around after the 1993 result.

As for this year, it's really messy. Abbott's (putative) win might be a sort of incumbent's win, but then again, the (late) incumbent is now living in Adelaide.

My personal take is that they're still angling for one last Howard win. They might get it, too. But this isn't 2007 or 2004 or even 2001.

And not Turnbull, but Hockey.
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Old 08-23-2013, 12:44 AM   #147
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You reckon Hockey would take over in the event of Abbott stepping aside? I just can't see it. Turnbull's incredibly popular with the public and would definitely secure a lot of marginal voters and even some centre-left voters who normally vote ALP (not due to any policy, but his public persona). Hockey's a boring oaf with no charisma. He's pretty much the new Peter Costello, except Costello wasn't quite so much of an oaf.

Unrelated note: somehow the Citizens Electoral Council managed to sneak in and leave a few copies of their election newspaper on the table in the lobby area of my floor at work. It made for hilarious lunchtime reading, I assure you.
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Ian McCulloch the U2 fan:
"Who buys U2 records anyway? It's just music for plumbers and bricklayers. Bono, what a slob. You'd think with all that climbing about he does, he'd look real fit and that. But he's real fat, y'know. Reminds me of a soddin' mountain goat."
"And as for Bono, he needs a colostomy bag for his mouth."

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Old 08-23-2013, 03:38 AM   #148
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Turnbull may be popular with the public but he isn't popular with his own party. Maybe he gets some brownie points for being such a good team player all the time. But the Liberal Party is increasingly tribal. I'm not sure.

The CEC has an election newspaper? Wow. Any updates on the correct pitch at which your brain will meld with classical music?
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Old 08-23-2013, 05:34 AM   #149
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My colleague tells me they were handing out copies of the paper on the street the other day too! Thanks to the CEC, now I realise that the British royal family wants to cause global genocide not just with the "hoax of global warming" but also with a "bank bail-in".

... yeaaahhhhh.
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Ian McCulloch the U2 fan:
"Who buys U2 records anyway? It's just music for plumbers and bricklayers. Bono, what a slob. You'd think with all that climbing about he does, he'd look real fit and that. But he's real fat, y'know. Reminds me of a soddin' mountain goat."
"And as for Bono, he needs a colostomy bag for his mouth."

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Old 08-23-2013, 05:46 AM   #150
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I thought the British Royals were into global genocide via the international drug trade.

Also, that homeopathy can't be good for anyone.

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Old 08-23-2013, 08:26 PM   #151
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Far-right micro-parties are all in bed with each other and exist for funnelling preferences - what a shock; who knew; boy oh boy wowee! Liberal Democrats, Smokers Rights Party controlled by same interests | Crikey

Add Glenn Druery to the mix and it gets all the more dodgy.
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Ian McCulloch the U2 fan:
"Who buys U2 records anyway? It's just music for plumbers and bricklayers. Bono, what a slob. You'd think with all that climbing about he does, he'd look real fit and that. But he's real fat, y'know. Reminds me of a soddin' mountain goat."
"And as for Bono, he needs a colostomy bag for his mouth."

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Old 08-23-2013, 08:32 PM   #152
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I find libertarians to be quite frightening types, to be honest.
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Old 08-23-2013, 09:04 PM   #153
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Seriously, the LDP's economic policy is completely deranged.

I fear they pick up some votes/preferences on the basis of their name too. People see it and think it's fairly benign, perhaps a local equivalent of the UK's centrist party of the same name. At least New Zealand's libertarians are honest and run under the - excruciatingly punful - name Libertarianz.
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Ian McCulloch the U2 fan:
"Who buys U2 records anyway? It's just music for plumbers and bricklayers. Bono, what a slob. You'd think with all that climbing about he does, he'd look real fit and that. But he's real fat, y'know. Reminds me of a soddin' mountain goat."
"And as for Bono, he needs a colostomy bag for his mouth."

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Old 08-23-2013, 09:13 PM   #154
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As I've hinted earlier they're going on a sort of 'recruiting' rampage on Tumblr, trying to get attention by asking people to vote for them.

On a hilarious side note, compare this LDP to the Russian party of the same name.
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Old 08-23-2013, 11:02 PM   #155
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As I've hinted earlier they're going on a sort of 'recruiting' rampage on Tumblr, trying to get attention by asking people to vote for them.
Yeah, I've got that impression from Charlotte. Sounds like they're trying way too hard to seem "hip" and "with it".

Quote:
On a hilarious side note, compare this LDP to the Russian party of the same name.
Hahaha, I can't believe this hadn't occurred to me. Oh Zhirinovsky, where to even begin!
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Ian McCulloch the U2 fan:
"Who buys U2 records anyway? It's just music for plumbers and bricklayers. Bono, what a slob. You'd think with all that climbing about he does, he'd look real fit and that. But he's real fat, y'know. Reminds me of a soddin' mountain goat."
"And as for Bono, he needs a colostomy bag for his mouth."

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Old 08-24-2013, 12:24 AM   #156
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Zhirinovsky makes folks like Abbott and Palmer seem like reasonably decent human beings. That speech he made to the UN/EU(not sure which one?) was probably one of the most hilarious political speeches I've ever heard, and fortunately everybody in the room was facepalming.
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Old 08-24-2013, 10:21 PM   #157
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Two very interesting articles for FYM's consideration.

Firstly, those suspicions that some of the right-wing micro-parties exist simply to funnell preferences? They seem to be well-founded: Liberal Democrats, Smokers Rights Party controlled by same interests | Crikey

Secondly, the Guardian's got a good opinion piece contrasting the Wikileaks Party with the Pirate Party. After digging around on the Pirates' website and being impressed both by the majority of their policies and their transparency, it's safe to say I'll be giving them high preferences. Wikileaks looked promising but their implosion over the past week has put paid to that. The WikiLeaks party could learn about transparency from the Pirate party | Asher Wolf | Comment is free | theguardian.com
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Ian McCulloch the U2 fan:
"Who buys U2 records anyway? It's just music for plumbers and bricklayers. Bono, what a slob. You'd think with all that climbing about he does, he'd look real fit and that. But he's real fat, y'know. Reminds me of a soddin' mountain goat."
"And as for Bono, he needs a colostomy bag for his mouth."

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Old 08-24-2013, 10:49 PM   #158
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Assange could be good if he wasn't a libertarian (ie. Rand Paul best US hope) and a rapist (assuming the accusations are true). It's cute that it's a progressive left/somewhat social democratic country let's him stay in their embassy.

The Pirate Party seem decent. Given the lack of decent parties I'll likely be giving them a high-ish preference.
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Old 08-25-2013, 01:03 AM   #159
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It's interesting that the Wikileaks Party website, last I checked, had very little to say about economics. They do, however, oppose the privatisation of the ABC and SBS, so they're not quite as radically libertarian as, say, the LDP. As for the allegations about Assange it certainly gives me pause, but ultimately our legal system relies upon the presumption of innocence until proven guilty.

Oh, and if anybody's bored this Sunday arvo, I meant to post that Antony Green's Senate calculator is live: Antony Green's Election Calculator - Australia Votes | Federal Election 2013 (Australian Broadcasting Corporation)
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Ian McCulloch the U2 fan:
"Who buys U2 records anyway? It's just music for plumbers and bricklayers. Bono, what a slob. You'd think with all that climbing about he does, he'd look real fit and that. But he's real fat, y'know. Reminds me of a soddin' mountain goat."
"And as for Bono, he needs a colostomy bag for his mouth."

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Old 08-25-2013, 02:23 AM   #160
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Aside from the basic sussness of Assange himself (talking politics here), I regard the Wikileaks party as a fundamentally unserious exercise. In fact - leaving aside various independents - I'd have a hard time supporting any party that does not at least in theory have a vision for governing (that is, aspires in some non-vague way to someday be a party of government). That does include The Greens as, while it's obviously very remote as any sort of likelihood inside the next thirty years, it is an acknowledged part of their raison d'être.
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