Australian federal election: 7 September

[intedomine]

Yeah I honestly wonder how long Abbott will last. Such a divisive and incompetent politician. If he isn't ousted as PM (by Turnbull?) during his first term, then surely he won't be allowed to lead the Liberals for a second term?

I suppose the only reason they persevered with him for this year's election is because that would have nullified the Liberals' main weapon against Labor - leadership change. Otherwise, he is a shocking politician and certainly not Prime minister material.

[Axver]

Clive Palmer is looking like he is a good chance to win the seat of Fairfax. Fuck me sideways.

Oh god this is so horrible. I've seen enough Aussie and Kiwi elections go the wrong way in my life but none have felt as wretchedly terrible as this.

[Kieran McConville]

I suppose it's far too soon to have any news on the senate.

As for the lower house, could be worse, could be better I suppose. If Labors ends up with more than fifty, fifty-five seats... that's something.

Palmer? A lunatic, but his actual impact is neither here nor there I guess... presumably he'll vote with the Coalition most of the time, whatever. Now if Rise Up Australia had got a candidate up... same outcome, but far more depressing.

[LJT]

My general impression is that Australia is a lot more socially conservative than I initially thought.

You can tell me if i'm getting this wrong but basically, the Labour party obviously with it fractious self destruction over the years (Rudd-Gillard-Rudd) and whatever internal battles went over that became nearly as right wing as the Liberal party in their effort to claw back in the polls, with rhetoric against asylum seekers and dropping a lot of the environmental policies they came to power with. So you have on party being a complete shambles and you would struggle to differentiate it from it's main rival, but the main rival is led by someone who appears to be worse (at least as far as I can tell) than many of the Republicans in the States.

[dan_smee]

Tips for leader of the opposition?

I want Jason Clare to put his hands up. I think he is young, bright, fresh, intelligent, unencumbered by any Rudd/Gillard baggage, and is a strong local member. Who else is there worth considering? Discuss.

[Vlad n U 2]

Abbott is not too far from an Australian Reagan of sorts.

[Angela Harlem]

Originally Posted by Vlad n U 2

Aw yeah.

I think I'm ironically fanboying (if that even is a word) Clive to the point that it's becoming sincere ... oh no.

My family have gone Clive too. It's fucking nuts! I said to my sister today that he's Australia's version of Boris Johnson. Ie, a lunatic that says the craziest things to distract everyone temporarily from the fact that he's just said some totally batshit crazy thing. I think people find his Hawke-esque honesty a little refreshing.

2013 aside, Bob Carr is setting the groundwork for an election in the future, is the prediction in this house. I think I've forgotten how bad he was at the end of his NSW stint, but I think he will rise up. God knows, the ALP need unity. Desperately.

[Angela Harlem]

Originally Posted by dan_smee

Tips for leader of the opposition?

I want Jason Clare to put his hands up. I think he is young, bright, fresh, intelligent, unencumbered by any Rudd/Gillard baggage, and is a strong local member. Who else is there worth considering? Discuss.

Give Bob Carr some time. He's a crafty bugger. He knows well how to play this game. He knows when a ship is sinking, he knows when to jump on board. He is painfully rigid. He is difficult to beat.

[Kieran McConville]

Bob Carr is about 65. Nope.

Everyone says Bill Shorten, and maybe as placeholder, but he ain't nothing special.

Maybe 'Albo'.

[Axver]

ALP leadership is pretty much Albanese vs Shorten if you ask me. I don't see anybody else even in the frame at this point. At least Rudd fucking quit. I can't believe he spent three years fucking white-anting the party to lead them to such an insipid fucking result. And he KEPT GODDAMN SMILING THROUGH HIS CONCESSION SPEECH AS IF HE'D WON. Those awful fucking Queenslanders who kept chanting his name and cheering at every mention of Queensland reminded me why I moved the fuck out of that state too.

Originally Posted by LJT

My general impression is that Australia is a lot more socially conservative than I initially thought.

You can tell me if i'm getting this wrong but basically, the Labour party obviously with it fractious self destruction over the years (Rudd-Gillard-Rudd) and whatever internal battles went over that became nearly as right wing as the Liberal party in their effort to claw back in the polls, with rhetoric against asylum seekers and dropping a lot of the environmental policies they came to power with. So you have on party being a complete shambles and you would struggle to differentiate it from it's main rival, but the main rival is led by someone who appears to be worse (at least as far as I can tell) than many of the Republicans in the States.

You're pretty spot on. Australia has an incredibly nasty streak of racism and sexism - I don't know why people look upon this as a friendly, open country when this streak of fearful conservatism runs through its politics so vehemently that we hounded out an incredibly capable Prime Minister because she dared to have a vagina.

I keep trying to tell the Labour acolytes I know that the biggest problem with the party right now is that it fails to offer an alternative vision for the future, a left-wing vision, something clearly opposed to the Liberals. The problem is that the ALP is really in a transition phase as what it means to be left-wing evolves. Part of their base is your traditional working class that is very socially conservative, and they don't know how to balance that with social progressives. Likewise you have a battle between ideologues who think social issues don't even matter and ideologues who don't even understand economics. This will be an interesting time for the ALP. I'm very interested to see how they endure the next few years in opposition and whether or not they bounce back quickly. The last time they were ousted from government, in 1996, they bounced back so strongly in 1998 that they won the nationwide two-party-preferred vote while still losing the election (John Howard could have been a one-term footnote rather than an eleven-year PM). I can only hope that the ALP is even more resurgent this time.

[Kieran McConville]

I really wasn't up to watching anybody's speeches tonight, but yeah, Kevin Rudd had his experiment. Fuck off, Kevin. Your purpose has been served. There will be no valedictories.

(said while acknowledging that in a brute numbers sense it maybe won't be as bad as it could be, certainly not a bloodbath, but Kevin, you were in this to win, that was the only possible justification for your shite over the last three years. The only possible justification for that was victory. Fuck off.)

[Axver]

This is an awful, shameful night.

[intedomine]

Rudd served his purpose. He won the '07 election. Good stuff. Was found to be an incompetent, egotistic leader so Gillard stepped in to provide the productive leadership Australia needed. Things got done, Australia became a better place to live in, but she was a woman and a liar, but not just any liar - a JULIAR!!!!

She couldn't win the election, but maybe Rudd was good for one-thing, winning elections. Obviously not. A lame campaign against a flaccid Liberal Party. Good riddance to him, he failed at what I thought he was good at.

Who to lead Labor now? Shorten preferred I suppose, But I do wish Combet had wanted to stay in the game. Maybe Kelly? Plibersek?

[Axver]

I am absolutely seething. It's not just that the Coalition won. They're pretty vile of course, but y'know they're going to win elections here and there. They currently reign in Victoria and, while it sucks, the state hasn't completely collapsed yet. After the Kennett years, Baillieu/Napthine has been a relative breeze. The staggering thing is that Tony fucking Abbott won.

I mean, jesus christ, if you'd told me six years ago that Tone would not only be the Liberals leader but that he would take them to a convincing victory, I would suggest you're a complete moron who needs to visit an asylum. Watch any Aussie political satire like old Chaser episodes from 2006-07 and you can see how he was viewed as a colossal joke, an extremist who nobody could ever take seriously. I cannot fathom how he managed to get to where he is and persuade enough complete flogs to vote for him. It would be one thing if Malcolm Turnbull or another level-headed individual had led this victory, but Tone? This is a shit-stain upon Australia. I've never been more embarrassed to be a citizen of this country.

[LJT]

Did people expect Rudd to do much better in the election than Gillard? Otherwise I don't see why they ousted her.

[Kieran McConville]

Evidently somebody - the caucus at least - did expect him to do better. I am not sure I was ever convinced either way.

Tony is... I'm not sure what Tony is. A DLP cold warrior, certainly. The zombie persona is his version of covering that. But where he fits within his own party... it's the rest of them who worry me, and why the senate is critical.

[Axver]

Originally Posted by LJT

Did people expect Rudd to do much better in the election than Gillard? Otherwise I don't see why they ousted her.

Yep. There was a general fear that Gillard would lead to an electoral wipe-out. Queensland and western Sydney looked completely fucked (at one stage I predicted the ALP could lose every seat in Queensland apart from Griffith), and she was ousted in the wake of a series of polls that showed seats in Victoria previously considered utterly safe were under serious threat.

Whether it was an advisable move or not in light of tonight's abominable result will be debated for years I'm sure.

[Neenie]

I voted Green and preferenced Labor. I work for the Leighton’s/Downer constructors on the regional rail project which was funded by federal Labor. The conalition will halt all further rail projects and stick to their knitting which is roads only.

With the conalition cutting foreign aid, it will be interesting to see Bono’s reaction when he comes to Australia next.

[Axver]

Welcome to the first morning of 1953 everybody.

[Vlad n U 2]

Everything has turned grainy and/or sepia.