Australian federal election: 7 September - Page 11 - U2 Feedback

Go Back   U2 Feedback > Lypton Village > Free Your Mind
Click Here to Login
Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
 
Old 09-02-2013, 06:51 AM   #201
ONE
love, blood, life
 
Kieran McConville's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: Kony Island Baby
Posts: 10,244
Local Time: 02:31 AM
Everytime I think of GOB Bluth as my prime minister, I feel like curling up in the shower and weeping for a while.

Say he wins: I hope for a very unfriendly senate and a bad case of imperial overreach, resulting in a manic rush to new election in under two years.
__________________

Kieran McConville is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-02-2013, 07:48 AM   #202
Vocal parasite
 
Axver's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2003
Location: 1853
Posts: 152,936
Local Time: 03:31 AM
I'm genuinely worried about the Senate, actually. The Coalition probably won't get a majority, but the more I look at the polling, the preference flows, and Antony Green's calculator, the more I fear the balance of power won't be held by the Greens but by a ragtag bunch of largely right-wing independents.

The following parties, in my estimation, are all in the running to hold seats in the Senate:
Greens - duh. Six of their Senators are only halfway through their terms; three are up for re-election. Sarah Hanson-Young is facing an uphill battle in SA due to poor preference flows. Scott Ludlam might have a bit of a challenge too. Peter Whish-Wilson will be fine in Tasmania. Not sure if they can make any gains anywhere - Victoria is a good chance. A second in Tasmania is unlikely, though they'll stay in the count for a good while.
Katter's Australian Party - look a good chance to pick up a Queensland seat.
Australian Fishing and Lifestyle Party - will stay in the race for a while in Queensland due to good preferencing flows; probably can't get over the line but they're a dark horse.
Family First - have favourable preferences in Victoria, Queensland, and Tasmania.
Shooters and Fishers - definitely in contention for NSW's final seat.
One Nation - disturbingly likely to actually get that final NSW seat.
Sex Party - were looking good to challenge for Victoria's final seat until a cabal of right-wing micro-parties failed to register preferences in time. I don't think they will scrape over the line now.
Wikileaks - were also looking to challenge for Victoria's final seat but I think they have faded now, especially after their serious fragmentation over preferences.
Nick Xenophon Group - he's got one SA seat wrapped up. Can he repeat his state feat and poll well enough to bring a friend? Surely not.
Australian First Nations Party - very possible to get a Northern Territory seat. The ALP are currently just above a quota, but their support has slipped in the Territory; if it slips below a quota, even by half a percent, First Nations will be in because EVERYBODY is preferencing them above the ALP. This is pretty much the first time the Territory's had a meaningful contest for the Senate.
(Plus the DLP's John Madigan will still be rocking around as he's only halfway through his term.)

You see what I mean? My estimation is that the Greens will win 2 seats nationally (so down 1 for a total of 8), Xenophon will retain his SA seat, One Nation will win in NSW, Katter's candidate will win in Queensland, and Family First will possibly win 1 somewhere. Too tough to call the Territory race, so let's leave it out. That would be a crossbench of 13 Senators when you add the DLP. The Coalition should remain around their current tally of 34, give or take one. That means to pass legislation they will just need to court four or five Senators - allowing them to cut out the Greens entirely. Most of the rest of the crossbench are on the right, and some like Pauline are totally crazy. This could lead to ugly legislation.
__________________

__________________
"Mediocrity is never so dangerous as when it is dressed up as sincerity." - Søren Kierkegaard

Ian McCulloch the U2 fan:
"Who buys U2 records anyway? It's just music for plumbers and bricklayers. Bono, what a slob. You'd think with all that climbing about he does, he'd look real fit and that. But he's real fat, y'know. Reminds me of a soddin' mountain goat."
"And as for Bono, he needs a colostomy bag for his mouth."

U2gigs: The most comprehensive U2 setlist database!
Gig pictures | Blog
Axver is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-02-2013, 07:57 AM   #203
ONE
love, blood, life
 
Kieran McConville's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: Kony Island Baby
Posts: 10,244
Local Time: 02:31 AM
There might, I say might, be a little joy in Katter's mob (if any eventuate). Katter's basically old Labor, Queensland-style. That's why it wasn't nonsense that he could claim to 'work with Rudd'. He is an economic nationalist. It all comes down to what aspects of the Coalition's agenda dominate. Tony is DLP through and through. But's he's weak and a figurehead (I think, maybe). Hockey and other senior figures are itching to try on the local version of austerity in the name of ideological purity. So it's a tug of war.

I agree though that the sheer plethora of microparties are maybe a worry. The trouble is the process by which the chips fall is so byzantine that I doubt any of us can really say what Saturday's outcome will be.

I also agree that (Sex Party whatever, who the hell are they anyway), most non-Greens contenders are broadly of the right. So yeah ok, it's not totally comforting.
Kieran McConville is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-02-2013, 10:14 AM   #204
45:33
 
cobl04's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: East Point to Shaolin
Posts: 57,725
Local Time: 03:31 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kieran McConville View Post
The trouble is the process by which the chips fall is so byzantine that I doubt any of us can really say what Saturday's outcome will be.
Abbott is going to win.
cobl04 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-02-2013, 08:10 PM   #205
ONE
love, blood, life
 
Kieran McConville's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: Kony Island Baby
Posts: 10,244
Local Time: 02:31 AM
I am referring to the senate. The process by which candidates get up, or not, in the senate.

The lower house is much less opaque.
Kieran McConville is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-03-2013, 12:08 AM   #206
Vocal parasite
 
Axver's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2003
Location: 1853
Posts: 152,936
Local Time: 03:31 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kieran McConville View Post
There might, I say might, be a little joy in Katter's mob (if any eventuate). Katter's basically old Labor, Queensland-style. That's why it wasn't nonsense that he could claim to 'work with Rudd'. He is an economic nationalist. It all comes down to what aspects of the Coalition's agenda dominate. Tony is DLP through and through. But's he's weak and a figurehead (I think, maybe). Hockey and other senior figures are itching to try on the local version of austerity in the name of ideological purity. So it's a tug of war.
Yeah, this is the funny thing about a KAP Senator - it's hard to say whether they would favour the Coalition or the ALP's objectives in a finely-balanced Senate. I wonder how much it will have to do with who leads the ALP after the election and whether Katter is willing to co-operate with them. Certainly though on a range of issues a KAP Senator is not half as dangerous as One Nation or Family First holding the balance of power.

Quote:
I agree though that the sheer plethora of microparties are maybe a worry. The trouble is the process by which the chips fall is so byzantine that I doubt any of us can really say what Saturday's outcome will be.

I also agree that (Sex Party whatever, who the hell are they anyway), most non-Greens contenders are broadly of the right. So yeah ok, it's not totally comforting.
I think it's going to come down to how good a showing the Greens have and how much the ALP hold on to. At the moment it's ALP 31 and Green 9; together they can only lose one seat to maintain a majority in the Senate. I think it's 17 of the ALP's 31 are up for re-election, so with a swing on against them that could hurt (or arcane preference deals could stem the bloodflow). Like I said before, Greens at least only have 3 of the 9 up for re-election but how many can be returned? Worst-case is 1 but best-case is 5, which could help cling to the balance of power. Even if ALP/Green get reduced to one seat below a majority, Xenophon is probably more likely to work with them - though also he's very likely to be bought off by the Coalition with presents and trinkets for South Australia.
__________________
"Mediocrity is never so dangerous as when it is dressed up as sincerity." - Søren Kierkegaard

Ian McCulloch the U2 fan:
"Who buys U2 records anyway? It's just music for plumbers and bricklayers. Bono, what a slob. You'd think with all that climbing about he does, he'd look real fit and that. But he's real fat, y'know. Reminds me of a soddin' mountain goat."
"And as for Bono, he needs a colostomy bag for his mouth."

U2gigs: The most comprehensive U2 setlist database!
Gig pictures | Blog
Axver is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-03-2013, 12:43 AM   #207
ONE
love, blood, life
 
Kieran McConville's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: Kony Island Baby
Posts: 10,244
Local Time: 02:31 AM
I would not want to have to count on Xenophon, no. He's probably an ok guy as far as it goes, but strikes me as the sort of post-ideological single-issue figure that will go along with any old thing (as long as pet issue x gets ticked).

People decry partisanship, but partisanship is politics.

Meanwhile, Rudd seems able to perform only when he's up against the wall with a firing squad already locking and loading.
Kieran McConville is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-03-2013, 04:38 AM   #208
Blue Crack Addict
 
Vlad n U 2's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 28,357
Local Time: 03:01 AM
Coalition government to review unions and ALP presence in history curriculum | News.com.au

Tony is angry everything is too left wing for him.
Vlad n U 2 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-03-2013, 10:28 PM   #209
45:33
 
cobl04's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: East Point to Shaolin
Posts: 57,725
Local Time: 03:31 AM
Do you guys know comedian Tim Ferguson, formerly of Doug Anthony All Stars, is running for the NSW Senate for Senator Online?
cobl04 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-04-2013, 03:06 AM   #210
ONE
love, blood, life
 
Kieran McConville's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: Kony Island Baby
Posts: 10,244
Local Time: 02:31 AM
He's the one who's not Paul McDermott, right?
Kieran McConville is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-04-2013, 03:08 AM   #211
45:33
 
cobl04's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: East Point to Shaolin
Posts: 57,725
Local Time: 03:31 AM
Yes. He also has MS.
cobl04 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-04-2013, 11:18 PM   #212
ONE
love, blood, life
 
dan_smee's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2004
Location: Canberra, Australia
Posts: 13,272
Local Time: 02:31 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Axver View Post
Leigh Sales stumped Tone multiple times on the 7:30 Report tonight. It was great.
Leigh Sales is a certified genius.

Nick Minchin has said that Abbott is only pushing the Paid parental Leave scheme because he knows he will never get it through the senate. Push it through to get the rich vote during the campaign, and then never have to fund it. Ever.

Rudd has not been strong enough. He needs to get out there and say "this policy is genetic cleansing. It provides direct disincentive for poor people to reproduce. Tony, why don't you think poor people have as much right to have children as rich people?"
dan_smee is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-05-2013, 01:18 AM   #213
ONE
love, blood, life
 
Kieran McConville's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: Kony Island Baby
Posts: 10,244
Local Time: 02:31 AM
Personally I think Rudd should have punched Abbott in the face during the first debate, and gone on from there.

I also think that the TV/web advertising could have stood to put out a piece along the lines of:

Clip of Paul Keating from that 2010 interview where he calls Tony Abbott an intellectual nobody, and then cut to about twenty seconds of that time when Abbott just stood there nodding twitchily in silence like some kind of psycho.

I know, I know, only the true believers have any time for ol' Paul, but it couldn't do any more harm than the actual campaign they've run.
Kieran McConville is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-05-2013, 01:51 AM   #214
Vocal parasite
 
Axver's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2003
Location: 1853
Posts: 152,936
Local Time: 03:31 AM
Seriously, Rudd fucking white-anted the ALP to run this insipid campaign? Tone should be one of the easiest politicians to demolish. I just watched again the clip from that interview when he couldn't answer a question and just stared in silence. The man's a psychopath.
__________________
"Mediocrity is never so dangerous as when it is dressed up as sincerity." - Søren Kierkegaard

Ian McCulloch the U2 fan:
"Who buys U2 records anyway? It's just music for plumbers and bricklayers. Bono, what a slob. You'd think with all that climbing about he does, he'd look real fit and that. But he's real fat, y'know. Reminds me of a soddin' mountain goat."
"And as for Bono, he needs a colostomy bag for his mouth."

U2gigs: The most comprehensive U2 setlist database!
Gig pictures | Blog
Axver is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-05-2013, 03:48 AM   #215
Blue Crack Addict
 
Vlad n U 2's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 28,357
Local Time: 03:01 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by dan_smee View Post
Rudd has not been strong enough. He needs to get out there and say "this policy is genetic cleansing. It provides direct disincentive for poor people to reproduce. Tony, why don't you think poor people have as much right to have children as rich people?"
I don't see how Rudd is that much more of a friend to the poor than Abbott is, a little, sure, but not by miles.
Vlad n U 2 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-05-2013, 04:29 AM   #216
ONE
love, blood, life
 
dan_smee's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2004
Location: Canberra, Australia
Posts: 13,272
Local Time: 02:31 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Vlad n U 2 View Post
I don't see how Rudd is that much more of a friend to the poor than Abbott is, a little, sure, but not by miles.
Sure, he's not a socialist, but he does have some decent policies to support the poor, most of which focus on equality of access rather than throwing cash at them.
dan_smee is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-05-2013, 06:34 AM   #217
ONE
love, blood, life
 
Kieran McConville's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: Kony Island Baby
Posts: 10,244
Local Time: 02:31 AM
Tony rang me. On my phone (hey, I run a home office, plus I'm an old codger). Tony can get fucked.
Kieran McConville is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-05-2013, 06:55 AM   #218
Blue Crack Addict
 
Vlad n U 2's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 28,357
Local Time: 03:01 AM
He rang me earlier today, didn't give him much of a chance to say anything. Kev was a few hours late.
Vlad n U 2 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-05-2013, 09:59 AM   #219
Jesus Online
 
Angela Harlem's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 1969
Location: a glass castle
Posts: 30,163
Local Time: 03:31 AM
I went to the AEC today to vote, and as I approached the excited sign wavers, I realised for the first time that I didn't know who the ALP candidate was for my seat. Literally, I didn't know. It wasn't a mental blank; I hadn't seen one single bit of letterbox propaganda in all this campaign. I get bullshit from Russell Matheson all the time, but not a peep from ALP. I had to ask the nice old Labor lady to help me, even though I was casting my vote in Lindsay Territory and hiding from the inbred Fiona Scott groupies.

Have the escapades of Fiona made news in your parts? She is truly the Sarah Palin of Abbott's stable crew.

I'm so disappointed overall, though. Abbott has been the whiniest bitch this whole time, and Rudd has been a limp noodle. Lacklustre and beige all over, except when Murdoch has published yet another tabloid headline. The blackout has been a nice change after all the circus. I sincerely hope this helps bite Abbott by getting the swing votes away from him. According to Liberal friends, this is absolutely acceptable to withhold costings until 2 days before and once the blackout is in place. I just cannot see value in such a move, and cannot help be suspicious. Rudd's comatose enthusiasm has caused me to look at the other parties more than ever before, but there was just the sound of crickets when I looked at the LNP. Like when he was interviewed and gave that 30 seconds of silence. I love a party that just will not answer at all, literally.
__________________
<a href=https://img.photobucket.com/albums/v196/angelaharlem/thPaul_Roos28.jpg target=_blank>https://img.photobucket.com/albums/v1...aul_Roos28.jpg</a>
Angela Harlem is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-05-2013, 08:23 PM   #220
45:33
 
cobl04's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: East Point to Shaolin
Posts: 57,725
Local Time: 03:31 AM
Yes, Ms Scott is the one who likened refugees to queues at the shops yes?
__________________

cobl04 is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply

Tags
australia, australian politics, kevin rudd, tony abbott

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off



All times are GMT -5. The time now is 11:31 AM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2020, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
Design, images and all things inclusive copyright © Interference.com
×