Australian federal election: 7 September

[Kieran McConville]

Everytime I think of GOB Bluth as my prime minister, I feel like curling up in the shower and weeping for a while.

Say he wins: I hope for a very unfriendly senate and a bad case of imperial overreach, resulting in a manic rush to new election in under two years.

[Axver]

I'm genuinely worried about the Senate, actually. The Coalition probably won't get a majority, but the more I look at the polling, the preference flows, and Antony Green's calculator, the more I fear the balance of power won't be held by the Greens but by a ragtag bunch of largely right-wing independents.

The following parties, in my estimation, are all in the running to hold seats in the Senate:
Greens - duh. Six of their Senators are only halfway through their terms; three are up for re-election. Sarah Hanson-Young is facing an uphill battle in SA due to poor preference flows. Scott Ludlam might have a bit of a challenge too. Peter Whish-Wilson will be fine in Tasmania. Not sure if they can make any gains anywhere - Victoria is a good chance. A second in Tasmania is unlikely, though they'll stay in the count for a good while.
Katter's Australian Party - look a good chance to pick up a Queensland seat.
Australian Fishing and Lifestyle Party - will stay in the race for a while in Queensland due to good preferencing flows; probably can't get over the line but they're a dark horse.
Family First - have favourable preferences in Victoria, Queensland, and Tasmania.
Shooters and Fishers - definitely in contention for NSW's final seat.
One Nation - disturbingly likely to actually get that final NSW seat.
Sex Party - were looking good to challenge for Victoria's final seat until a cabal of right-wing micro-parties failed to register preferences in time. I don't think they will scrape over the line now.
Wikileaks - were also looking to challenge for Victoria's final seat but I think they have faded now, especially after their serious fragmentation over preferences.
Nick Xenophon Group - he's got one SA seat wrapped up. Can he repeat his state feat and poll well enough to bring a friend? Surely not.
Australian First Nations Party - very possible to get a Northern Territory seat. The ALP are currently just above a quota, but their support has slipped in the Territory; if it slips below a quota, even by half a percent, First Nations will be in because EVERYBODY is preferencing them above the ALP. This is pretty much the first time the Territory's had a meaningful contest for the Senate.
(Plus the DLP's John Madigan will still be rocking around as he's only halfway through his term.)

You see what I mean? My estimation is that the Greens will win 2 seats nationally (so down 1 for a total of 8), Xenophon will retain his SA seat, One Nation will win in NSW, Katter's candidate will win in Queensland, and Family First will possibly win 1 somewhere. Too tough to call the Territory race, so let's leave it out. That would be a crossbench of 13 Senators when you add the DLP. The Coalition should remain around their current tally of 34, give or take one. That means to pass legislation they will just need to court four or five Senators - allowing them to cut out the Greens entirely. Most of the rest of the crossbench are on the right, and some like Pauline are totally crazy. This could lead to ugly legislation.

[Kieran McConville]

There might, I say might, be a little joy in Katter's mob (if any eventuate). Katter's basically old Labor, Queensland-style. That's why it wasn't nonsense that he could claim to 'work with Rudd'. He is an economic nationalist. It all comes down to what aspects of the Coalition's agenda dominate. Tony is DLP through and through. But's he's weak and a figurehead (I think, maybe). Hockey and other senior figures are itching to try on the local version of austerity in the name of ideological purity. So it's a tug of war.

I agree though that the sheer plethora of microparties are maybe a worry. The trouble is the process by which the chips fall is so byzantine that I doubt any of us can really say what Saturday's outcome will be.

I also agree that (Sex Party whatever, who the hell are they anyway), most non-Greens contenders are broadly of the right. So yeah ok, it's not totally comforting.

[cobl04]

Originally Posted by Kieran McConville

The trouble is the process by which the chips fall is so byzantine that I doubt any of us can really say what Saturday's outcome will be.

Abbott is going to win.

[Kieran McConville]

I am referring to the senate. The process by which candidates get up, or not, in the senate.

The lower house is much less opaque.

[Axver]

Originally Posted by Kieran McConville

There might, I say might, be a little joy in Katter's mob (if any eventuate). Katter's basically old Labor, Queensland-style. That's why it wasn't nonsense that he could claim to 'work with Rudd'. He is an economic nationalist. It all comes down to what aspects of the Coalition's agenda dominate. Tony is DLP through and through. But's he's weak and a figurehead (I think, maybe). Hockey and other senior figures are itching to try on the local version of austerity in the name of ideological purity. So it's a tug of war.

Yeah, this is the funny thing about a KAP Senator - it's hard to say whether they would favour the Coalition or the ALP's objectives in a finely-balanced Senate. I wonder how much it will have to do with who leads the ALP after the election and whether Katter is willing to co-operate with them. Certainly though on a range of issues a KAP Senator is not half as dangerous as One Nation or Family First holding the balance of power.

I agree though that the sheer plethora of microparties are maybe a worry. The trouble is the process by which the chips fall is so byzantine that I doubt any of us can really say what Saturday's outcome will be.

I also agree that (Sex Party whatever, who the hell are they anyway), most non-Greens contenders are broadly of the right. So yeah ok, it's not totally comforting.

I think it's going to come down to how good a showing the Greens have and how much the ALP hold on to. At the moment it's ALP 31 and Green 9; together they can only lose one seat to maintain a majority in the Senate. I think it's 17 of the ALP's 31 are up for re-election, so with a swing on against them that could hurt (or arcane preference deals could stem the bloodflow). Like I said before, Greens at least only have 3 of the 9 up for re-election but how many can be returned? Worst-case is 1 but best-case is 5, which could help cling to the balance of power. Even if ALP/Green get reduced to one seat below a majority, Xenophon is probably more likely to work with them - though also he's very likely to be bought off by the Coalition with presents and trinkets for South Australia.

[Kieran McConville]

I would not want to have to count on Xenophon, no. He's probably an ok guy as far as it goes, but strikes me as the sort of post-ideological single-issue figure that will go along with any old thing (as long as pet issue x gets ticked).

People decry partisanship, but partisanship is politics.

Meanwhile, Rudd seems able to perform only when he's up against the wall with a firing squad already locking and loading.

[Vlad n U 2]

Coalition government to review unions and ALP presence in history curriculum | News.com.au

Tony is angry everything is too left wing for him.

[cobl04]

Do you guys know comedian Tim Ferguson, formerly of Doug Anthony All Stars, is running for the NSW Senate for Senator Online?

[Kieran McConville]

He's the one who's not Paul McDermott, right?

[cobl04]

Yes. He also has MS.

[dan_smee]

Originally Posted by Axver

Leigh Sales stumped Tone multiple times on the 7:30 Report tonight. It was great.

Leigh Sales is a certified genius.

Nick Minchin has said that Abbott is only pushing the Paid parental Leave scheme because he knows he will never get it through the senate. Push it through to get the rich vote during the campaign, and then never have to fund it. Ever.

Rudd has not been strong enough. He needs to get out there and say "this policy is genetic cleansing. It provides direct disincentive for poor people to reproduce. Tony, why don't you think poor people have as much right to have children as rich people?"

[Kieran McConville]

Personally I think Rudd should have punched Abbott in the face during the first debate, and gone on from there.

I also think that the TV/web advertising could have stood to put out a piece along the lines of:

Clip of Paul Keating from that 2010 interview where he calls Tony Abbott an intellectual nobody, and then cut to about twenty seconds of that time when Abbott just stood there nodding twitchily in silence like some kind of psycho.

I know, I know, only the true believers have any time for ol' Paul, but it couldn't do any more harm than the actual campaign they've run.

[Axver]

Seriously, Rudd fucking white-anted the ALP to run this insipid campaign? Tone should be one of the easiest politicians to demolish. I just watched again the clip from that interview when he couldn't answer a question and just stared in silence. The man's a psychopath.

[Vlad n U 2]

Originally Posted by dan_smee

Rudd has not been strong enough. He needs to get out there and say "this policy is genetic cleansing. It provides direct disincentive for poor people to reproduce. Tony, why don't you think poor people have as much right to have children as rich people?"

I don't see how Rudd is that much more of a friend to the poor than Abbott is, a little, sure, but not by miles.

[dan_smee]

Originally Posted by Vlad n U 2

I don't see how Rudd is that much more of a friend to the poor than Abbott is, a little, sure, but not by miles.

Sure, he's not a socialist, but he does have some decent policies to support the poor, most of which focus on equality of access rather than throwing cash at them.

[Kieran McConville]

Tony rang me. On my phone (hey, I run a home office, plus I'm an old codger). Tony can get fucked.

[Vlad n U 2]

He rang me earlier today, didn't give him much of a chance to say anything. Kev was a few hours late.

[Angela Harlem]

I went to the AEC today to vote, and as I approached the excited sign wavers, I realised for the first time that I didn't know who the ALP candidate was for my seat. Literally, I didn't know. It wasn't a mental blank; I hadn't seen one single bit of letterbox propaganda in all this campaign. I get bullshit from Russell Matheson all the time, but not a peep from ALP. I had to ask the nice old Labor lady to help me, even though I was casting my vote in Lindsay Territory and hiding from the inbred Fiona Scott groupies.

Have the escapades of Fiona made news in your parts? She is truly the Sarah Palin of Abbott's stable crew.

I'm so disappointed overall, though. Abbott has been the whiniest bitch this whole time, and Rudd has been a limp noodle. Lacklustre and beige all over, except when Murdoch has published yet another tabloid headline. The blackout has been a nice change after all the circus. I sincerely hope this helps bite Abbott by getting the swing votes away from him. According to Liberal friends, this is absolutely acceptable to withhold costings until 2 days before and once the blackout is in place. I just cannot see value in such a move, and cannot help be suspicious. Rudd's comatose enthusiasm has caused me to look at the other parties more than ever before, but there was just the sound of crickets when I looked at the LNP. Like when he was interviewed and gave that 30 seconds of silence. I love a party that just will not answer at all, literally.

[cobl04]

Yes, Ms Scott is the one who likened refugees to queues at the shops yes?