Australian 2016 Election Poll

[Axver]

Actually I might need to wind back that last post a little; I think I misread some early Senate counts as stronger than they are. The fact that the Greens' primary vote in most states is good enough for one quota at an ordinary election but only 1.5 at a double dissolution does seem to be a bit of a spanner in the works. But my read is that they definitely have one seat in every state, second seats in Victoria and Tasmania, and should score one or two more elsewhere too once the preferences are distributed (Queensland maybe?) - but that's very hard to read. So they'll have 8-10 seats and their Senate primary vote is up on 2013.

[cobl04]

Pauline Hanson. I'm getting angrier and angrier.

[cobl04]

Originally Posted by Axver

Actually I might need to wind back that last post a little; I think I misread some early Senate counts as stronger than they are. The fact that the Greens' primary vote in most states is good enough for one quota at an ordinary election but only 1.5 at a double dissolution does seem to be a bit of a spanner in the works. But my read is that they definitely have one seat in every state, second seats in Victoria and Tasmania, and should score one or two more elsewhere too once the preferences are distributed (Queensland maybe?) - but that's very hard to read. So they'll have 8-10 seats and their Senate primary vote is up on 2013.

What's annoying me is I can't find anywhere that will give a clear view of things.

[Axver]

Hanson and Hinch. What a fucking awful Senate this will be.

Originally Posted by cobl04

What's annoying me is I can't find anywhere that will give a clear view of things.

That's because there really is no clear view! We have no precedent on how to predict the preference flows and ballot exhaustions under the new system. Group voting tickets were undemocratic but because almost everybody voted above the line it meant it was easy to model the outcome without a detailed count. Not now. Where, for example, will One Nation preferences go? They've polled strongly nationwide, not enough for a quota in most states but enough that their preferences 2-6 will make a difference. In the lower house seats my impression - and I might be wrong - is that their preferences actually seemed to favour the ALP.

All we can say right now for the Senate is to identify those candidates with a quota already off first preferences, those who should get to a quota because they are that close to one that even a small flow of preferences will be sufficient, and then wonder about the rest. In some states that's 2-3 positions completely up in the air and we may not know until late July.

[Axver]

Oh, and has anybody checked on poor John Madigan? He polled terribly. Looks like he's 30th out of 38 groups in Victoria. His old DLP outdid him by a solid margin. He's come behind PUP, Rise Up, Fred Nile's lackeys, the Health Australia anti-vaxxers, Sustainable Australia and their dumb fucking hashtag, and even the unendorsed Democrats running as Group B!

[Kieran McConville]

You've got to be some kind of fucked to come behind Sustainable Australia.

I think we all have little option but to wait for counting and allocating to run its course. It's clear we have little idea beyond the broadest strokes (Hanson! Maybe Hung Parliament!) what will end up being the result.

[dazzledbylight]

Good luck people!

Thanks, Axver for the PM rundown.

Course as for the rest of it (your system/terns)
much are like to me... That's OK. Sure I know
the general concept of forming a coalition government
since I listen to World News as well as my local
& national news .

So Turnbull is a conservative guy (said the BBC)?

Yeah, they just mentioned this Mz Pauline person.

Well, you know some of our (USA) people. So it'll be your Spring
when our Presidential + others election will be held.

You can pull up your lawn chairs and over our election.
Hopefully (her pos & negs) Hilary will win. A d we have our
House and Senate up, too.

Good luck, again folks!

[Vlad n U 2]

Originally Posted by Axver

Oh, and has anybody checked on poor John Madigan? He polled terribly. Looks like he's 30th out of 38 groups in Victoria. His old DLP outdid him by a solid margin. He's come behind PUP, Rise Up, Fred Nile's lackeys, the Health Australia anti-vaxxers, Sustainable Australia and their dumb fucking hashtag, and even the unendorsed Democrats running as Group B!

He has absolutely no positive attributes and he's an idiot for even thinking of forming a party with his name in the title.

[Axver]

Originally Posted by Vlad n U 2

He has absolutely no positive attributes and he's an idiot for even thinking of forming a party with his name in the title.

Yeah I'm not exactly going to miss him. Trying to come up with a cult of personality party requires a personality, something that Madigan lacks. People love to call Ricky Muir the "accidental Senator" but Madigan was no less of an accident. And Muir gave it a red hot go, found his feet, and ran a decent campaign; he's not back in, but he's sure polled much better than Madigan.

[intedomine]

ABC's Australia Votes site (on mobile) is very easy on the eye, but dear me... I'm struggling with the discrepancies across all various sites. Now claiming that in Higgins the 2PP is 77% in favour of the Libs, even though Greens gained a swing of 10%? It's all over the shop.

And fuck Pauline Hanson and any of the fuckwits who trot out the line "we should have listened to her years ago" or "she's only being honest".. Ughhhh

Trying desperately to see a "positive" in One Nation's success (and it's a stretch), is that Hanson is such an erratic and ridiculous individual. She's a caricature. If you could look at it this way... It's better that the far-right backed her, as opposed to an ALA or RUA, who at least could be perceived to be organised, or as "credible" parties (by those who wouldn't know any better).


Sent from a barge floating through the docks of Dublin

[Axver]

Originally Posted by intedomine

ABC's Australia Votes site (on mobile) is very easy on the eye, but dear me... I'm struggling with the discrepancies across all various sites. Now claiming that in Higgins the 2PP is 77% in favour of the Libs, even though Greens gained a swing of 10%? It's all over the shop.

Higgins is the same on the AEC but when you dig into the figures it's because they've only just started a new two-candidate-preferred count of O'Dwyer vs Ball. There's only about 120 preferences distributed so far.

Hanson's victory is a huge embarrassment for Australia because you know it's going to be a lead story in the international media. At least Hinch's fuckwittery only really resonates with Australian audiences, but oh god everybody in New Zealand will be laughing at us for Hanson's election and it'll play terribly in Asia, they won't have forgotten her.

[Vlad n U 2]

Originally Posted by intedomine

Trying desperately to see a "positive" in One Nation's success (and it's a stretch), is that Hanson is such an erratic and ridiculous individual. She's a caricature. If you could look at it this way... It's better that the far-right backed her, as opposed to an ALA or RUA, who at least could be perceived to be organised, or as "credible" parties (by those who wouldn't know any better).

Danny Nalliah is no less of a nutter than Hanson, but yes, much lesser name recognition.

[Axver]

If I had to choose between Hanson and Nalliah, not a question I'd take Hanson. Nalliah is completely delusional. Hanson's just scared of people who look or sound different to her. She occasionally supports something OK, like voluntary euthanasia. If she's nine different kinds of shit, Nalliah is ten different kinds of shit.

[liamcool]

We still don't know?

[Kieran McConville]

Must be a quiet Monday down there in SA. What the fuck is this staged photo meant to convey, are the Xenophon Team trying to ward off the Devil or something?

[Kieran McConville]

fucking image won't post, I give up. Ok, works as an attachment, thanx guys.

[cobl04]

It's started already with Hanson. FFS.

One thing I think we on the left have an issue with... - and I guess this is a more simplistic take on that Graun article? - it's all well and good for us to say let's ignore the racism, ignore Hanson, etc etc, etc... you can sweep one thing under the rug. But the fact is she resonates with a LOT of people. It happened in the UK. It is happening the in the US. It's happened in several European countries. And if we don't swallow a hard truth soon, and try to do something about disaffected, scared Australians, then it might become too late.

You can sweep a few things under the rug. It's not so easy to sweep five million things under the rug.

[Axver]

Starting to seriously look like NXTophon will pick up the seat of Grey as well as Mayo. Hahaha.

And oh god I already hate living in a country where Pauline Hanson is a senator. Every news website right now has her face everywhere and I want to throw my computer screen out the window.

[Kieran McConville]

Originally Posted by cobl04

It's started already with Hanson. FFS.

One thing I think we on the left have an issue with... - and I guess this is a more simplistic take on that Graun article? - it's all well and good for us to say let's ignore the racism, ignore Hanson, etc etc, etc... you can sweep one thing under the rug. But the fact is she resonates with a LOT of people. It happened in the UK. It is happening the in the US. It's happened in several European countries. And if we don't swallow a hard truth soon, and try to do something about disaffected, scared Australians, then it might become too late.

You can sweep a few things under the rug. It's not so easy to sweep five million things under the rug.

Do something about the causes of their disaffection - which for many of these voters would actually be economic once you scratch the surface - or prepare for more of the same and worse.

There will always be some degree of racism (with more or less degrees of varnish on it), but the far right can't seize opportunities that aren't there waiting for the picking.

[Vlad n U 2]

Hanson's reaction to Dastyari's suggestion of going out for a halal snack pack in western Sydney was hilarious but also depressing. Why can't be this still be the time where she announced she was heading off to England and never coming back?

Anyway, there is a large degree of blame justified towards Channel 7 for constantly giving her a platform whenever anything bad happens in the world. Shame on them for contributing to the normalisation of far-right politics in this country.