Australian 2016 Election Poll

[Axver]

ABC's Australia Votes site (on mobile) is very easy on the eye, but dear me... I'm struggling with the discrepancies across all various sites. Now claiming that in Higgins the 2PP is 77% in favour of the Libs, even though Greens gained a swing of 10%? It's all over the shop.

Higgins is the same on the AEC but when you dig into the figures it's because they've only just started a new two-candidate-preferred count of O'Dwyer vs Ball. There's only about 120 preferences distributed so far.

Hanson's victory is a huge embarrassment for Australia because you know it's going to be a lead story in the international media. At least Hinch's fuckwittery only really resonates with Australian audiences, but oh god everybody in New Zealand will be laughing at us for Hanson's election and it'll play terribly in Asia, they won't have forgotten her.

 

[Vlad n U 2]

Trying desperately to see a "positive" in One Nation's success (and it's a stretch), is that Hanson is such an erratic and ridiculous individual. She's a caricature. If you could look at it this way... It's better that the far-right backed her, as opposed to an ALA or RUA, who at least could be perceived to be organised, or as "credible" parties (by those who wouldn't know any better).

Danny Nalliah is no less of a nutter than Hanson, but yes, much lesser name recognition.

 

[Axver]

If I had to choose between Hanson and Nalliah, not a question I'd take Hanson. Nalliah is completely delusional. Hanson's just scared of people who look or sound different to her. She occasionally supports something OK, like voluntary euthanasia. If she's nine different kinds of shit, Nalliah is ten different kinds of shit.

 

[liamcool]

We still don't know?

 

[Kieran McConville]

Must be a quiet Monday down there in SA. What the fuck is this staged photo meant to convey, are the Xenophon Team trying to ward off the Devil or something?

 

[Kieran McConville]

fucking image won't post, I give up. Ok, works as an attachment, thanx guys.

 

[cobl04]

It's started already with Hanson. FFS.

One thing I think we on the left have an issue with... - and I guess this is a more simplistic take on that Graun article? - it's all well and good for us to say let's ignore the racism, ignore Hanson, etc etc, etc... you can sweep one thing under the rug. But the fact is she resonates with a LOT of people. It happened in the UK. It is happening the in the US. It's happened in several European countries. And if we don't swallow a hard truth soon, and try to do something about disaffected, scared Australians, then it might become too late.

You can sweep a few things under the rug. It's not so easy to sweep five million things under the rug.

 

[Axver]

Starting to seriously look like NXTophon will pick up the seat of Grey as well as Mayo. Hahaha.

And oh god I already hate living in a country where Pauline Hanson is a senator. Every news website right now has her face everywhere and I want to throw my computer screen out the window.

 

[Kieran McConville]

It's started already with Hanson. FFS.

One thing I think we on the left have an issue with... - and I guess this is a more simplistic take on that Graun article? - it's all well and good for us to say let's ignore the racism, ignore Hanson, etc etc, etc... you can sweep one thing under the rug. But the fact is she resonates with a LOT of people. It happened in the UK. It is happening the in the US. It's happened in several European countries. And if we don't swallow a hard truth soon, and try to do something about disaffected, scared Australians, then it might become too late.

You can sweep a few things under the rug. It's not so easy to sweep five million things under the rug.

Do something about the causes of their disaffection - which for many of these voters would actually be economic once you scratch the surface - or prepare for more of the same and worse.

There will always be some degree of racism (with more or less degrees of varnish on it), but the far right can't seize opportunities that aren't there waiting for the picking.

 

[Vlad n U 2]

Hanson's reaction to Dastyari's suggestion of going out for a halal snack pack in western Sydney was hilarious but also depressing. Why can't be this still be the time where she announced she was heading off to England and never coming back?

Anyway, there is a large degree of blame justified towards Channel 7 for constantly giving her a platform whenever anything bad happens in the world. Shame on them for contributing to the normalisation of far-right politics in this country.

 

[Kieran McConville]

Hanson operates in a celebrity milieu (see the puffy writeups in the womens' mags over the years) that is quite far removed from the 'ordinary Australians' she claims to belong to. In her way, she really is another product.

 

[cobl04]

Channel 7 definitely holds responsibility, not that they will care in the slightest.

[TWEET]749816892701888514[/TWEET]

 

[dan_smee]

I don't understand why any of us oppose her Royal Commission suggestions.

Seriously, let them conduct a Royal Commission into climate change. It will be answered and she'd have to shut the fuck up.

Same with whether Islam is a religion or an ideology. What does she expect to do with either outcome? Neither are actionable, and it can be engrained in incontrovertible direction from a commissioner that she had to let it go.


Sent from my iPhone using U2 Interference

 

[Axver]

You may be right on the end result but I am concerned it will give bigots a platform as it conducts its business and enable all kinds of nastiness, in the same way a marriage equality plebiscite would.

 

[dan_smee]

You may be right on the end result but I am concerned it will give bigots a platform as it conducts its business and enable all kinds of nastiness, in the same way a marriage equality plebiscite would.

Very true


Sent from my iPhone using U2 Interference

 

[Kieran McConville]

I don't know why The Guardian is saying a Coalition government is 'more likely than not'. At this stage, it's far from clear to me that this is the case.

 

[intedomine]

And if we don't swallow a hard truth soon, and try to do something about disaffected, scared Australians, then it might become too late.

You can sweep a few things under the rug. It's not so easy to sweep five million things under the rug.

Right on, but how do we tackle that problem? It'll surely take generations to establish any real cut-through with whatever the answer might be.

Hanson's supporters are proudly (if unknowingly) anti-intellectual and stubborn. I have one on my Facebook. It's incredible how conversation flows with this man when I try to engage with him. How do we intellectualise the likes of him?

I agree with Vlad, media outlets like 7 are complicit in giving her alarmingly simple but straightforward views such a frequent exposure.

But in some respects it is better that they are giving the unreasonable alarmist like Hanson this mainstream exposure, rather than allowing her followers to gravitate towards a Fortitude, ALA or Nalliah's Rise Uppers, who establish contrived but powerful "reason" to justify their hateful bigotry.

It's a crappy situation to be in regardless... Up to 6 seats to One Nation?! I honestly thought she was old news to the far-right and there were better options for them out there now. But I suppose they are quite regressive in their thought process.


Sent from a barge floating through the docks of Dublin

 

[cobl04]

I had one yesterday on the same topic. Extremely racist (and possibly on drugs). But I felt we were having a peaceful disagreement. Then I had friends pick on grammar and spelling as well as question his parents' job bringing him up and it just descended into absolutely shocking stuff.

I think there's some other things at play. Seven deserves criticism but as I said they don't care. Ratings, money.

It was sickening to see how much coverage her press conference got today, because she just said some hideous things and was allowed to do so. It was fucking infuriating.

As someone on Twitter pointed out to me - we can ignore her shit but we have to try and sort out why so many people agree with her.

A fair whack of it can probably be explained by the demise of the Palmer United Party - a lot of Queenslanders would have gone to One Nation now they couldn't vote for PUP.

I'd MUCH rather her followers gravitate towards UPF/Fortitude/whatever, as their profile is garbage.

 

[dan_smee]

Of interest - Labor has pulled ahead in the 2PP count.

ALP - 4,971,898
LNP - 4,926,197

This after a day where minimal pre-poll and postal votes were able to be counted. Interesting considering the LNP were up by about 1,000 votes this time yesterday.

 

[dan_smee]

Also of interest:

The ABC have updated the 10 in doubt seats with a 'likely' result:

5 to the ALP, 4 to the LNP, 1 to NXT.

Leaving:

ALP: 72
LNP: 72
Other: 6

We are more than likely heading to another election. There is no way legislation passes through both houses with the profiles we have:

The 6 lower house micro/minor reps - 1 far left, 1 far right, 4 fairly centrist.
The 10 upper house micro/minor reps - wildly ranging across the spectrum.

To pass anything it has to appease the middle in the lower house, and the flanks in the senate. Just won't happen. They have to dissolve parliament again.

 

[Kieran McConville]

People like to poke at Pauline Hanson over all sorts of things, but for me nothing beats putting her name to a 1998 book which asserted, among other things, that in 2050 Australia would have a lesbian president of Chinese-Indian background called Poona Li Hung who would be a cyborg.

That is a snapshot of a moment in time right there, my friends.

 

[Kieran McConville]

Also of interest:

The ABC have updated the 10 in doubt seats with a 'likely' result:

5 to the ALP, 4 to the LNP, 1 to NXT.

Leaving:

ALP: 72
LNP: 72
Other: 6

We are more than likely heading to another election. There is no way legislation passes through both houses with the profiles we have:

The 6 lower house micro/minor reps - 1 far left, 1 far right, 4 fairly centrist.
The 10 upper house micro/minor reps - wildly ranging across the spectrum.

To pass anything it has to appease the middle in the lower house, and the flanks in the senate. Just won't happen. They have to dissolve parliament again.

Well I don't know about the senate, but in your scenario just there, to pass the lower house (say Labor gets 72), it has to pass with Labor + Green (that's the 'far left'?) + Wilkie + maybe one or two Xenophon votes. + McGowan maybe, though I certainly wouldn't count on it.

We are most certainly not heading to another election. The public blowback would be catastrophic, possibly to both major parties.

 

[dan_smee]

Well I don't know about the senate, but in your scenario just there, to pass the lower house (say Labor gets 72), it has to pass with Labor + Green (that's the 'far left'?) + Wilkie + maybe one or two Xenophon votes. + McGowan maybe, though I certainly wouldn't count on it.

We are most certainly not heading to another election. The public blowback would be catastrophic, possibly to both major parties.

There's no other way.

If it passes the lower house (big IF), then they need 9 or 10 of the micro party senators. So, agreement from Lazarus, Lambie, Hinch, Hanson, Xenophon, all the Greens, all of Labor, and some other nutbags.

I see very little legislation appeasing the lower house that has a chance of passing through that mess.

 

[Vlad n U 2]

By 'far left' I thought it meant I subconsciously became a candidate for HoR and won my own seat. Talk about having a guerilla candidacy.

 

[dan_smee]

By 'far left' I thought it meant I subconsciously became a candidate for HoR and won my own seat. Talk about having a guerilla candidacy.

Lol - you and me both. In the context of the Australian political landscape.

 

[Kieran McConville]

It's in the interests of all those lower house crossbenchers to get something out of this, whatever it says on the tin regarding their allegiences. No guarantee any of them would survive a new election.

 

[Kieran McConville]

There's no other way.

If it passes the lower house (big IF), then they need 9 or 10 of the micro party senators. So, agreement from Lazarus, Lambie, Hinch, Hanson, Xenophon, all the Greens, all of Labor, and some other nutbags.

I see very little legislation appeasing the lower house that has a chance of passing through that mess.

Also, how does this follow? It's possible the Senate makeup will give a theoretical majority to Labor/Greens/XNT. Lazarus isn't even in the new senate.

 

[dan_smee]

Katter, Bandt, McGowen, Wilkie are all incredibly safe. It would take a big swing in a short time to overturn Sharkie - so I'd say 5 would consider themselves safe.

 

[Kieran McConville]

In any case, either you're right or you're wrong, mate. 'There's no other way' is awfully dogmatic talk, so if you're right, I guess I'd better pencil in an election for later this month.

 

[dan_smee]

Also, how does this follow? It's possible the Senate makeup will give a theoretical majority to Labor/Greens/XNT. Lazarus isn't even in the new senate.

My mistake with Lazarus, but by my count on the ABC site we are looking at about 31 between the ALP and the Greens. 3 NXT would make 34 requiring negotiations with 2 of:

-Lambie
-Hinch
-Hanson