2020 Census Citizenship Question

[MrsSpringsteen]

This week the Trump administration (such as it is as of 3/28) announced that it intends to include a citizenship question on the 2020 census.

Ulterior motives ? Nah.

Congress depends on the census to decide how to distribute federal resources, also to determine the number of congressional districts in each state.

[BVS]

Honestly, I’m not sure the controversy on this one?

[MrsSpringsteen]

Originally Posted by BVS

Honestly, I’m not sure the controversy on this one?

At least 12 states are going to file a lawsuit about it. Everyone is supposed to be counted in a federal census, this would suppress the response of non citizens and illegal immigrants.

It's a Constitutional requirement that every resident be counted, whether they are citizens or not. Critics are accusing the Trump administration of wanting to reduce the population count in predominately Democratic areas where most immigrants live, before state and national redistricting in 2021.

After 2000 the question was only asked in a much smaller survey of a fraction of the population.

It was added at the last minute before the April 1st deadline, these questions are actually usually vetted for years. And it's already been included in an email sent out to raise money for Trump's reelection.

[BVS]

I guess what I’m wondering, and I admit I’m not an expert here; will this really stop people who would normally fill out the census?

Are there questions regarding the legal status here?

If you were here illegally had you been normally filling out the census? What are the consequences of just checking yes?

[Babydoll]

I had a response to this, but due to lack of time I can't get into it now. I will however say that this isn't as bad as the ethnicity question on the forms, which in my opinion needed some tweaking.

[Headache in a Suitcase]

Originally Posted by BVS

I guess what I’m wondering, and I admit I’m not an expert here; will this really stop people who would normally fill out the census?

Are there questions regarding the legal status here?

If you were here illegally had you been normally filling out the census? What are the consequences of just checking yes?

With this current administration the fear of ICE ripping your family apart is quite high - if you have a family member who is here illegally, you're less likely to fill out a census accurately, or fill it out at all.

This will decrease funding to certain areas (which need it most) and also has the ability to undercount the population in heavily Democratic areas (that are already undercounted as it is).

So it's not so much illegals answering the census, which already doesn't happen with any sort of consistency - but it's also going to cut down the number of legal immigrants who answer the census, or answer it accurately, out of fear that it'll lead ICE to their door.

[BVS]

Originally Posted by Headache in a Suitcase

With this current administration the fear of ICE ripping your family apart is quite high - if you have a family member who is here illegally, you're less likely to fill out a census accurately, or fill it out at all.

Oh I completely get this, I was just curious if there was any indicator that illegal immigrants ever consistently filled out census forms?

Originally Posted by Headache in a Suitcase

This will decrease funding to certain areas (which need it most) and also has the ability to undercount the population in heavily Democratic areas (that are already undercounted as it is).

So it's not so much illegals answering the census, which already doesn't happen with any sort of consistency - but it's also going to cut down the number of legal immigrants who answer the census, or answer it accurately, out of fear that it'll lead ICE to their door.

So this is what I was wondering, is there a question regarding legal immigrant status? If not then I understand the issue a bit more, but honestly who’s really going to check NO?

[Headache in a Suitcase]

Originally Posted by BVS

Oh I completely get this, I was just curious if there was any indicator that illegal immigrants ever consistently filled out census forms?



So this is what I was wondering, is there a question regarding legal immigrant status? If not then I understand the issue a bit more, but honestly who’s really going to check NO?

It's likely not as big a deal in practice as it is in theory, as illegals or those with illegals in their families are already undercounted... but the idea that they just sort of tossed it in last second, against the advice of every head of the census bureau ever, just makes it extra shady

[MrsSpringsteen]

Also, if you don't in fill out the form and mail it in they send a census taker to your house. I can completely understand how all of it would cause fear and intimidation. They say answers are private, but who would believe that these days. Let alone an immigrant.

There are threats of penalties for lying in your answers too.

[Nick66]

The census has been a bit of a political football for decades.

The last big battle was during the Clinton years, when the bureau wanted to start wide spread statistical adjustment on the census numbers, and to use those adjusted numbers across the government. The reason for this was simple...since there's no way to count everyone, you adjust the numbers to make up for the people you can't count. Simply put, if you had a neighbourhood with ten blocks, and you could only count nine of them, you take the demographics from the nine you did count and impute them to the tenth.

The issue was, it's often minority, immigrant and poorer areas that are the most undercounted. So by essentially "creating" more people via statistical adjustment, this would theoretically increase the numbers in places that tended to support Democrats. Naturally, Republicans cried foul, and the case eventually made its way to the SCOTUS, who more or less handed the GOP a victory. They said the Census Bureau could use adjusted numbers for things like allocating federal resources, etc., but not for purposes of Congressional apportionment (the Constitution requires an "actual" count), which is what Dems really wanted and the GOP hated.

So this is more politics. On one hand, it seems that yes, it's a political move designed to help Republicans and there may be an ulterior motive (in fact I'm sure there is). But there are all kinds of questions asked on the census form (particularly the long form), that go beyond simply counting you as a person, and the government uses the data for all kinds of reasons. Of course they can ask about citizenship status (it's been done before). The suggestion that asking the question is unconstitutional is ludicrous, and I doubt any of these lawsuits will get very far (well maybe they'll have some temporary luck in the 9th Circuit). The Constitution makes clear that the census falls purely into the purview of the Federal Government, and the states have very little to say about it. It is the Federal Government, after all, that determines who can be a citizen, lawful resident, etc.

I do think the argument that the question might make some immigrants less likely to talk to census workers is a valid one...I'm sure that will happen to some extent and that could result in a less accurate count. So while it may be bad policy, it's not unconstitutional...there are lots of bad policies that are nonetheless perfectly Constitutional.

So yeah, I personally think this is bad policy and at least partially politically motivated. But I don't see how it violates the Constitution, and this falls squarely into the "elections have consequences" category.

[u2feed]

generally speaking, if a person has nothing to hide then questions don't bother them.

ultimately, i think the fear is illegal aliens skewing federal funding or somehow voting. it is really kinda stupid because i can't see an illegal answering the census truthfully to begin with.

i would hope it wouldn't make legal immigrants shy away from their civic duty to be included.

[Headache in a Suitcase]

Originally Posted by u2feed

generally speaking, if a person has nothing to hide then questions don't bother them.

ultimately, i think the fear is illegal aliens skewing federal funding or somehow voting. it is really kinda stupid because i can't see an illegal answering the census truthfully to begin with.

i would hope it wouldn't make legal immigrants shy away from their civic duty to be included.

Generally speaking, when the government is rounding brown people from south of the border up like it's going out of style - even those who are here legally get a tad skittish.

[u2feed]

Originally Posted by Headache in a Suitcase

Generally speaking, when the government is rounding brown people from south of the border up like it's going out of style - even those who are here legally get a tad skittish.

i hope that wouldn't be the case but maybe it is. i know that in 2014 there were over 400,000 apprehensions on the southern border and in 2017 there were 250,000 but then there are fewer border patrol agents now. 21,444 in 2011 versus 19,437 in 2017. that would suck to cross all the T's and dot all the I's and become a citizen only to be afraid.

[Headache in a Suitcase]

Originally Posted by u2feed

i hope that wouldn't be the case but maybe it is. i know that in 2014 there were over 400,000 apprehensions on the southern border and in 2017 there were 250,000 but then there are fewer border patrol agents now. 21,444 in 2011 versus 19,437 in 2017. that would suck to cross all the T's and dot all the I's and become a citizen only to be afraid.

Yea, it would suck, guy who hides behind alter...

PHARR, Tex. —On paper, he’s a devoted U.S. citizen.

His official American birth certificate shows he was delivered by a midwife in Brownsville, at the southern tip of Texas. He spent his life wearing American uniforms: three years as a private in the Army, then as a cadet in the Border Patrol and now as a state prison guard.

But when Juan, 40, applied to renew his U.S. passport this year, the government’s response floored him. In a letter, the State Department said it didn’t believe he was an American citizen.

As he would later learn, Juan is one of a growing number of people whose official birth records show they were born in the United States but who are now being denied passports — their citizenship suddenly thrown into question. The Trump administration is accusing hundreds, and possibly thousands, of Hispanics along the border of using fraudulent birth certificates since they were babies, and it is undertaking a widespread crackdown.

...It would really suck.