There's arguments for both sides of the coin here, but the data is what it is. There's a definite cause and effect from the release methodology all over here.
The release caused a backlash in the media (which I'm sure U2 had to expect), but it also introduced people to U2 who may not normally have any interest in them -- they reached audiences who didn't even know who they were, and thus the pretty major spike in back catalog (which I'm sure U2 had to expect).
The data suggests that twice as many people on iOS accessed a U2 song than Katy Perry or T-Swizzle. It should be expected since it was given to everybody's iTunes, but it's also mildly impressive that they're able to do that in 2015, regardless of how it happened. Does that mean each person accessing U2 in this survey likes Volcano? No, but they either listened to it or had the opportunity to listen to it because of the release method, when they normally wouldn't have bothered with U2. If people didn't access U2 songs from their iOS, then that would be pretty embarrassing.
Do they have a hit with this album? Not yet, and is it likely? No more or less likely than they were before the album launched. Less likely since Bono's accident, yeah. I still think with proper promotion Every Breaking Wave and/or California could make a dent somewhere. I don't think there's a timelimit with it. Songs take off way, way after their initial release lately, but they're not going to take off without U2 actually promoting them.
As for the charts, I do wonder how giving the album away affects them in this regard. Why go out and buy a song for $1.29 on iTunes or Googleplay or whatever when you already have it? It's sort of the anti-Vertigo -- had Billboard counted iTunes sales in fall '04, I'm pretty convinced Vertigo is a top 10 hit.
