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-   -   2016 US Presidential Election Thread Part VI (http://www.u2interference.com/forums/f290/2016-us-presidential-election-thread-part-vi-220036.html)

Diemen 03-02-2016 09:01 AM

2016 US Presidential Election Thread Part VI
 
All hail our Imperial Master Trump!

I mean... continue. :wink:

Irvine511 03-02-2016 09:22 AM

2016 US Presidential Election Thread Part VI
 
It's difficult to tell from this vantage point whether Trump will consume the captive GOP establishment or merely enslave them. But, one thing is for certain: there is no stopping him; he will soon be the nominee. And I, for one, welcome our new Imperial overlord. I'd like to remind them as a trusted FYM contributor, I can be helpful in rounding up others to build a wall along the US/Mexico border.

Salome 03-02-2016 09:24 AM

I think the Mexicans might build the wall themselves to prevent gross stupidity from entering their country.

elevated_u2_fan 03-02-2016 09:57 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Irvine511 (Post 8054430)
It's difficult to tell from this vantage point whether Trump will consume the captive GOP establishment or merely enslave them. But, one thing is for certain: there is no stopping him; he will soon be the nominee. And I, for one, welcome our new Imperial overlord. I'd like to remind them as a trusted FYM contributor, I can be helpful in rounding up others to build a wall along the US/Mexico border.

:up:

without knowing precisely what the danger is, would you say it's time for Americans to crack each other's heads open and feast on the goo inside?

deep 03-02-2016 10:29 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Irvine511 (Post 8054430)
It's difficult to tell from this vantage point whether Trump will consume the captive GOP establishment or merely enslave them. But, one thing is for certain: there is no stopping him; he will soon be the nominee. And I, for one, welcome our new Imperial overlord. I'd like to remind them as a trusted FYM contributor, I can be helpful in rounding up others to build a wall along the US/Mexico border.


The people of Virginia spoke very loudly last night. They went to the polls in record numbers. Virginia is a true microcosm of the U S electorate. That is what I have been hearing lately. :shrug:

Diemen 03-02-2016 10:37 AM

I really needed this today:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v75wCTMZoSY

PhilsFan 03-02-2016 10:37 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by elevated_u2_fan (Post 8054434)
:up:

without knowing precisely what the danger is, would you say it's time for Americans to crack each other's heads open and feast on the goo inside?

Look, no one is moving to Canada, even if Trump wins. Because then we'd have to deal with Norm Kelly.

elevated_u2_fan 03-02-2016 10:57 AM

better hurry up before the wall is built

Irvine511 03-02-2016 11:22 AM

so, two big stories for me from last night:

1. excellent set up for Clinton. she's much, much better when she has something to lose or is even a bit behind. when she's in front she's not as good. she's much better when the stakes seem high. Sanders' continued viability is not only good for the country, but good for her. she needs the competition. and he's doing a great job keeping the base (and the bros) engaged in the election while giving voice to major issues that could be overlooked. i expect a barn berning speech at the DNC convention in support of HRC.

2. the failure of Rubio. i had thought that he was going to become the anti-Trump, and that the establishment's estimation of him -- young, attractive, non-threatening ethnic, generally good on his feet, excellent ability to memorize and repurpose empty soundbytes -- was going to appeal to the party. but it turns out that the old, white, angry GOP base doesn't seem to like young, smooth-talkin' Hispanics. i guess i shouldn't be surprised.

DaveC 03-02-2016 11:30 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PhilsFan (Post 8054443)
Look, no one is moving to Canada, even if Trump wins. Because then we'd have to deal with Norm Kelly.

...do you even know who Norm Kelly is?

ntalwar 03-02-2016 11:56 AM

I can't see (swing state) Virginia going Red again after being a Blue state in 2008/12.
Trump got trounced in the swing counties of Northern Va. by Rubio by about 40-25%. He has almost zero chance in the general there.

Mrs. Garrison 03-02-2016 12:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Salome (Post 8054431)
I think the Mexicans might build the wall themselves to prevent gross stupidity from entering their country.

:laugh:

Headache in a Suitcase 03-02-2016 12:14 PM

The best hope for the Dems, and frankly the country, is that the huge number of Republicans in the anti-Trump crowd, which makes up over 60%, stay home during the general.

If they stay home, Trump gets destroyed.

If they show up and throw their support behind him, he might actually win. Which is an incredibly frightening thought.

Mack_Again 03-02-2016 12:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Salome (Post 8054431)
I think the Mexicans might build the wall themselves to prevent gross stupidity from entering their country.

suddenly that sounds like a great idea.

PhilsFan 03-02-2016 12:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaveC (Post 8054452)
...do you even know who Norm Kelly is?

I'm familiar with his Twitter presence as the old white Canadian guy who thinks he's hip, my understanding beyond that is that he works in the Toronto city government.

LuckyNumber7 03-02-2016 12:27 PM

We could save millions and call the matches now.

Headache in a Suitcase 03-02-2016 12:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Salome (Post 8054431)
I think the Mexicans might build the wall themselves to prevent gross stupidity from entering their country.

Well Trump did say he was going to get the Mexicans to pay for the wall themselves... perhaps we finally know how he was going to go about doing that.

bobsaget77 03-02-2016 01:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Headache in a Suitcase (Post 8054458)
The best hope for the Dems, and frankly the country, is that the huge number of Republicans in the anti-Trump crowd, which makes up over 60%, stay home during the general.

If they stay home, Trump gets destroyed.

If they show up and throw their support behind him, he might actually win. Which is an incredibly frightening thought.


They will.
If Trump wins the nomination, Republicans will get over it and vote for Trump because (a) they all hate Hillary and (b) he's no longer attacking their candidate. 5-6 months of just Trump vs. Hillary will cause Trump's #'s with Republicans to go way up, even if they don't love him.
Republicans show up, a good VP pick, and 15-20% of democrats flipping to Trump and this is looking real, folks.


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BEAL 03-02-2016 01:19 PM

Only in your dreams.

elevated_u2_fan 03-02-2016 01:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bobsaget77 (Post 8054470)
They will.
If Trump wins the nomination, Republicans will get over it and vote for Trump because (a) they all hate Hillary and (b) he's no longer attacking their candidate. 5-6 months of just Trump vs. Hillary will cause Trump's #'s with Republicans to go way up, even if they don't love him.
Republicans show up, a good VP pick, and 15-20% of democrats flipping to Trump and this is looking real, folks.


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how can anyone with more than 2 functioning brain cells be okay with this?

bobsaget77 03-02-2016 01:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BEAL (Post 8054472)
Only in your dreams.


I despise Trump, but at some point reality has to set in. People have doubted him for months and months and months, but he keeps winning.
Here's what I want the republicans to do...
Rubio drops out, supports Cruz and becomes his VP. Kasich stays in long enough to beat Trump in Ohio. Carson drops out. Cruz vs Trump, Cruz wins.
Cruz/Rubio ticket in the general. Obviously, I'm the only Cruz supporter on FYM so you would all hate that. But that would be my dream scenario.


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BVS 03-02-2016 01:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bobsaget77 (Post 8054470)
and 15-20% of democrats flipping to Trump and this is looking real, folks.


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:lol: You MIGHT be right about republicans, but what would make anyone think he's getting any Democrat votes? Especially 15%


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bobsaget77 03-02-2016 01:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BVS (Post 8054475)
:lol: You MIGHT be right about republicans, but what would make anyone think he's getting any Democrat votes? Especially 15%


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You've been wrong about Trump since day 1. You doubting him is basically a guarantee it will happen.


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BigMacPhisto 03-02-2016 01:45 PM

It's actually fairly easy to stop Trump. Here's the idea I came up with:

If you're Kasich and Cruz, you tell all of your voters in Florida to support Rubio. Kasich and Cruz can't possibly win that state and it's a winner-take-all primary so they wouldn't be getting any delegates for third or fourth place anyway.

If you're Rubio and Cruz, you tell all of your voters in Ohio to support Kasich. Rubio and Cruz can't possibly win that state and it's a winner-take-all primary so they wouldn't be getting any delegates for third or fourth place anyway.


Trump walking away with zero delegates from Ohio and Florida would make his chances of winning the nomination before the convention basically impossible. Cruz and Rubio benefit as they can't possibly surpass Trump in delegates or eventually become the nominee without stopping Trump right now. Kasich benefits by being able to stop Trump and likely open things up for a contested convention where he can argue for the nomination or a VP slot.

Of course, they aren't strategically competent enough to agree to this...and even if they were, their egos would just get in the way.


Meanwhile, Trump actually has only received 34.2% of the vote so far, so his ceiling of 35% has in fact been correct. He really isn't that far ahead of Cruz (28.1%), nor is Rubio really trailing by that much (he's at 21.7% of the vote) and both of those candidates tend to be more people's second choices and get a much bigger boost than Trump in the days before a given state tends to vote.

The real reason Trump is dominating is because of some winner-take-all scenarios in a few states along with states that require a threshold in order to receive delegates. So that allows him to end up with like half the delegates despite receiving barely a third of the vote.

Can Republicans Still Take The Nomination Away From Trump? | FiveThirtyEight

BigMacPhisto 03-02-2016 01:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Irvine511 (Post 8054448)
2. the failure of Rubio. i had thought that he was going to become the anti-Drumpf, and that the establishment's estimation of him -- young, attractive, non-threatening ethnic, generally good on his feet, excellent ability to memorize and repurpose empty soundbytes -- was going to appeal to the party. but it turns out that the old, white, angry GOP base doesn't seem to like young, smooth-talkin' Hispanics. i guess i shouldn't be surprised.

Rubio's New Hampshire robot moment is going to go down as the worst mistake in the history of the primaries. He was surging like crazy there and could have conceivably even defeated Trump. Instead, he committed a major sin with that repetitious brain-dead nonsense and that rightfully cost him a ton of voters in New Hampshire and across the country.

Had he ended up with a great night at that debate, there's no doubt in my mind that he could have accomplished a surge in the rest of the country and won this thing rather easily. Now, it's pretty unlikely.

I do expect him to end up doing far better than Cruz by the end of this...he's got all that establishment support and a much better calendar of states coming up.

BVS 03-02-2016 02:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bobsaget77 (Post 8054476)
You've been wrong about Trump since day 1. You doubting him is basically a guarantee it will happen.


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How have I been wrong about Trump?


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ntalwar 03-02-2016 02:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bobsaget77 (Post 8054470)
They will.
If Trump wins the nomination, Republicans will get over it and vote for Trump because (a) they all hate Hillary and (b) he's no longer attacking their candidate. 5-6 months of just Trump vs. Hillary will cause Trump's #'s with Republicans to go way up, even if they don't love him.
Republicans show up, a good VP pick, and 15-20% of democrats flipping to Trump and this is looking real, folks.

Which blue states from 2012 would switch in order to enable that? I don't see it happening.

Headache in a Suitcase 03-02-2016 02:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bobsaget77 (Post 8054470)
They will.
If Trump wins the nomination, Republicans will get over it and vote for Trump because (a) they all hate Hillary and (b) he's no longer attacking their candidate. 5-6 months of just Trump vs. Hillary will cause Trump's #'s with Republicans to go way up, even if they don't love him.
Republicans show up, a good VP pick, and 15-20% of democrats flipping to Trump and this is looking real, folks.


Sent from my iPhone using U2 Interference

There's not a chance of 15-20% of democrats jumping to Trump.

Not. A. Chance.

His chances in a general election lie in the democrats not showing up to the polls in the same numbers as they have been for the Republicans; that he flips some swing states on turnout and turnout alone and pulls out a squeaker.

This is a real possibility at this point. Thanks, Republicans.

LuckyNumber7 03-02-2016 03:14 PM

Yeah, the only chance I see with a republican winning the election is if democrat voters have gotten too complacent. And, if history shows, third terms for parties tend to make the base complacent.

However, Trump will light a fire under their ass, against him.

Mack_Again 03-02-2016 03:18 PM

what kind of sane Democrats will vote for Donald Drumpf?

Diemen 03-02-2016 03:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bobsaget77 (Post 8054474)
I despise Trump, but at some point reality has to set in. People have doubted him for months and months and months, but he keeps winning.
Here's what I want the republicans to do...
Rubio drops out, supports Cruz and becomes his VP. Kasich stays in long enough to beat Trump in Ohio. Carson drops out. Cruz vs Trump, Cruz wins.
Cruz/Rubio ticket in the general. Obviously, I'm the only Cruz supporter on FYM so you would all hate that. But that would be my dream scenario.

If your dream scenario doesn't work out and Trump is indeed the nominee, are you going to vote for him?

PhilsFan 03-02-2016 03:23 PM

I think anyone pretending they know how this will play out at this point is kidding themselves. We're no longer dealing with a situation that has a historical comparison. And plenty of people are going to claim they knew it the whole time if their prediction ends up being correct, but they're full of it. There is no script here. It's going to get weird.

LuckyNumber7 03-02-2016 03:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PhilsFan (Post 8054494)
I think anyone pretending they know how this will play out at this point is kidding themselves. We're no longer dealing with a situation that has a historical comparison. And plenty of people are going to claim they knew it the whole time if their prediction ends up being correct, but they're full of it. There is no script here. It's going to get weird.


Remember in 2012 when you barked at me for voting third party, claiming it was "the most important election of our lifetime?"

See, now I think it's fair this time 'round to bark at someone who isn't willing to vote against Mein Drumpf.

Mack_Again 03-02-2016 03:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PhilsFan (Post 8054494)
I think anyone pretending they know how this will play out at this point is kidding themselves. We're no longer dealing with a situation that has a historical comparison. And plenty of people are going to claim they knew it the whole time if their prediction ends up being correct, but they're full of it. There is no script here. It's going to get weird.

so.........Bernie has chance?

but seriously though, this Bernie/Clinton race is going different direction than I anticipated.

BigMacPhisto 03-02-2016 03:47 PM

Sanders' campaign effectively ended right around the time of Nevada when Super Tuesday state polls started coming out fairly often. It was clear that Sanders was going to do a lot worse than expected in those states (which already heavily favored Clinton).

In actuality, it was all over before it began. Black voters see Clinton as the continuation of Obama's legacy and clearly aren't willing to budge. Clinton gets dictator-type numbers with older blacks. Sanders never had a chance to change these people's minds.

With the extremely relevant issues he tackles, new voters he brings to the table and his truly progressive positions, Sanders has every reason to stay in the race until the convention. Not only will it help the Democratic Party in November (and shift their platform further left), but he can then have a case to be their fall-back option if Clinton has a major health scare or ends up being indicted. Having like 40% of the pledged delegates would make him a likely winner real quick at a contested convention.

Mack_Again 03-02-2016 03:49 PM

oh here's something that wouldn't surprise us: Carson: 'I do not see a political path forward' after Super Tuesday results | US news | The Guardian


but it's so sad that Clinton's appeal to black voters is so superficial and shallow, though.

Mack_Again 03-02-2016 03:54 PM

so nobody here talking about commotion Bill caused in Massachusetts in the polling station?

BVS 03-02-2016 03:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BigMacPhisto (Post 8054498)
Clinton gets dictator-type numbers with older blacks. Sanders never had a chance to change these people's minds.

wow :|



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bobsaget77 03-02-2016 03:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Diemen (Post 8054493)
If your dream scenario doesn't work out and Trump is indeed the nominee, are you going to vote for him?


Right now, no. I don't know where things would stand 8 months from now. But if I the election were held today and Trump was the nominee, I would vote for Gary Johnson on the Libertarian ballot. I wish Biden would have ran for the DEM nominee. I wouldn't vote for him, but I could most definitely stomach him more than Hillary.


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LuckyNumber7 03-02-2016 04:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mack_Again (Post 8054502)
so nobody here talking about commotion Bill caused in Massachusetts in the polling station?


- the Sanders campaign doesn't want to be whiners
- the Clinton campaign has no reason to talk about it
- the media clearly doesn't want to support the idea of dethroning Clinton
- the Republicans clearly want to face her, not Sanders

Nobody cares. He got away with whatever illegal shit he did.

PhilsFan 03-02-2016 04:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by LuckyNumber7 (Post 8054495)
Remember in 2012 when you barked at me for voting third party, claiming it was "the most important election of our lifetime?"

See, now I think it's fair this time 'round to bark at someone who isn't willing to vote against Mein Drumpf.

I don't recall calling it the most important election of our lifetime and certainly don't feel that it was, but I do remember taking issue with voting third party once it was clear that no third party candidates had a chance in 2012. But yeah, the general election is pretty clearly structured as a one-or-the-other choice in the United States. I'm not a fan of getting cute with that, it's basically throwing your vote away.
Quote:

Originally Posted by Mack_Again (Post 8054496)
so.........Bernie has chance?

but seriously though, this Bernie/Clinton race is going different direction than I anticipated.

My point was that it's no longer the time to act like we're all sure Trump can't win. I don't trust the electorate enough for me to count him out.

deep 03-02-2016 04:45 PM

I would like to take this time to ask all of you to join me in a moment of silence for Dr. Ben Carson.

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thank you

Bluer White 03-02-2016 04:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by deep (Post 8054512)
I would like to take this time to ask all of you to join me in a moment of silence for Dr. Ben Carson.

.

.



.



.


.



.


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.

thank you

No one would attack the good doctor. It proved to be fatal.

deep 03-02-2016 05:00 PM

He had that claw hammer ready to go, too. (street cred)

corianderstem 03-02-2016 05:05 PM

When he does drop out, I'm sure no one will even notice.

LuckyNumber7 03-02-2016 05:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PhilsFan (Post 8054506)
I don't recall calling it the most important election of our lifetime and certainly don't feel that it was, but I do remember taking issue with voting third party once it was clear that no third party candidates had a chance in 2012. But yeah, the general election is pretty clearly structured as a one-or-the-other choice in the United States. I'm not a fan of getting cute with that, it's basically throwing your vote away.

You're right, it was someone else who said that.

I will say that I've evolved over the last four years to a point where I'm happy with the direction of the Democratic Party, and would in no circumstances throw my vote away.

But I still stand by the idea that if you're not fundamentally on board with one of your two choices, you're not obliged to pick one or the other. Only in dire cases, like Donald Trump (or, I suppose, Ted Cruz), do I actually advocate voting for the pure sake of not allowing someone to take office. That's because I didn't see Mitt Romney as a *problem*.

In hindsight, though, I woulud've voted for Obama in 2012 given that his second term was far better than his first term.

LuckyNumber7 03-02-2016 05:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by corianderstem (Post 8054516)
When he does drop out, I'm sure no one will even notice.

Pretty sure he already did (according to John Kasich). He's probably keeping hush hush about officially suspending his campaign so that he can borrow the national spotlight to run for a senate seat in Florida.

ntalwar 03-02-2016 05:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PhilsFan (Post 8054506)
My point was that it's no longer the time to act like we're all sure Trump can't win. I don't trust the electorate enough for me to count him out.

The prediction markets at this early stage haven't counted him out either - a Republican still has a 36% chance to win. Knowledge of one's local electorate (important issues, demographic trends, prior turnout, etc.), especially in swing states/counties does make a difference in trusting the electorate imo.

Mrs. Garrison 03-02-2016 05:20 PM

I am proud that Oklahoma went to Bernie Sanders last night. I am equally offended that Oklahoma went for Ted Cruz as well.

Fuck Ted Cruz.

DaveC 03-02-2016 05:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PhilsFan (Post 8054461)
I'm familiar with his Twitter presence as the old white Canadian guy who thinks he's hip, my understanding beyond that is that he works in the Toronto city government.

Well yeah, he's the deputy Mayor, and has an unpaid "social media intern" that posts silly shit on his twitter account. He hung out with Drake a couple times in the summer and nobody has thought much of him since.

I was just confused at the comparison with Trump, as if he's a constant intolerable presence up here or something.

Whatever, i'm reading too much into a joke. As you were.


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