You are so high on the Kool-Aid. The album dropped 75% in sales this week. I don't want U2 to fail as some might think. I am a big fan, but I'm also being realistic. I wouldn't be surprised if the U.S. stadium tour is scrapped in favor of an arena tour very soon.
Will they sell out stadiums in the USA?
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You are so high on the Kool-Aid. The album dropped 75% in sales this week. I don't want U2 to fail as some might think. I am a big fan, but I'm also being realistic. I wouldn't be surprised if the U.S. stadium tour is scrapped in favor of an arena tour very soon.
Well, you know what.
If the US is not capable of supporting a stadium tour then I think U2 should just skip us all together. I'll just travel abroad if I want to seen them.
What's wrong with an arena tour?
AndrewCowley
Refugee
I agree there's a chance that this could be PopMart v2 in terms of ticket sales. However I'd guess that the planning and commitment for them to do stadiums is so well advanced that it can't be changed.
The Live Nation deal probably means they are obliged to try a huge tour like this. What I did not like about the Live Nation deal, i.e. the amount of money involved, is that it created a situation where U2 are forced to do huge tours in order for the investment made by Live Nation to be recouped. It means they can't tour on their own terms.
There's nothing wrong with an arena tour if that's what they had planned. However, they planned a stadium tour and if the US can't handle it well then too bad for us.
Maybe for the next album they'll plan an arena tour.
Maoilbheannacht
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Ok, roger that. The Billboard 200 year end album chart starts with the last week in November and goes to the 3rd week of November the following year, so that will including a good chunk of the 4th quarter of 2008. The regular soundscan chart goes from January 1 to December 31, so yes the results are a little different between the two charts. But even with the Billboard chart that includes a good chunk of the 4th quarter of 2008, I predict No Line On The Horizon will still be in the top 10 at the end of the year. Also, I don't think No Line On The Horizon has to outsell Taylor Swifts newest album in the USA in order to be considered a great success.
Maoilbheannacht
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Well, lets see your predictions for a 20 date US Stadium tour leg this fall? What are your numbers for each market/venue?
Will get some early indications of how things are doing on March 30 when Toronto, Chicago, Boston, and New York City area stadium shows go on sale.
Arthur Fogul is one of the smartest guys in the concert business. He promoted the recent Police tour which grossed $358 million worldwide making it the third highest grossing tour of all time. By the way, the Police played stadiums in the United States with ticket prices of $250, $95, and $50, essentially the same that U2 will be charging.
HTDAAB dropped 66% in sales in its second week. That did not stop HTDAAB from becoming the 8th biggest selling album of 2005.
By the way, did you see how fast the U2 shows in Sweden, Netherlands and Italy soldout this past weekend. Over 312,000 tickets for 5 shows soldout within hours of going on sale!
Maoilbheannacht
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U2 has been working with Live Nation for over a decade now, and with Arthur Fogul, the president or CEO of Live Nation off and on since their first show in Toronto back in 1980. U2 did stadiums everywhere on the last tour except in two countries, United States and Canada. Based on the rapid sellouts on Vertigo, its likely they could have done stadiums on that tour.
dafish1234
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They sold out arenas in less than a minute- I think there's more than enough demand depending on the city.
Unless Magnificent or Crazy Tonight can breakthrough at top 40 radio, I don't see them selling out any U.S. stadiums except for those in Chicago, NY, Boston, and L.A. Perhaps they only need to sell 30,000 tickets in each market to make a profit, I don't know. If that's the case, then I suppose the tour will move on as planned. Otherwise, they may just do an arena tour instead. The Police tour was different in that it was their first tour in 25 years. If they tour again in four years, the numbers will be much lower.
AndrewCowley
Refugee
That was 4 years ago. The question is how many people will be intimidated away from spending money on concert tickets given the current state of the economy? We'll find out I guess when the tickets go on sale. I'm not expecting a lot of sell outs. And then you get PopMart v2 in terms of how the tour is perceived.
I think it is fair to assume that say the planning for this tour started today (and not 12+ months ago, as was probably the case) that a stadium tour would be far less likely.
You honestly believe that at this stage of planning and negotiation they're just going to say "oh, let's do an arena tour"?
If anything they'll say let's just do the four stadiums maybe add a 2nd show in the cities already listed and call it a day.
Maoilbheannacht
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For the Police, it was risk to come back after being away for so long. The band initially booked arena's and stadiums to be prepared for any sort of ticket situation. There were a few markets where tickets only sold as well as a new Sting Solo tour would have done, like in Sweden. But that vast majority of markets did record breaking business which is why the tour ended up as the 3rd highest grossing tour of all time.
U2 is in a much better position since they have actively been promoting themselves, selling albums, releasing new albums for the past several decades with no let up. That increases the size of the fan base and makes it less risky when it comes time to start selling tickets.
In addition, remember that ZOO TV did not sellout 25% of its stadium shows, and the Joshua Tree tour had stadium shows that did not sellout in Los Angeles and Oakland. So simply selling all the tickets is not the only gauge of success. Total ticket sales and gross are actually more important.
So how do you think they will do in Phoenix, Las Vegas, Tampa Raleigh NC, Atlanta, Dallas, Norman Okla, Houston, Charlottsville VA, Washington DC?
ntalwar
Rock n' Roll Doggie Band-aid
I think concert ticket sales will be surprisingly robust despite the economic state. Gothenburg has two sellouts for U2 and Michael Jackson rapidly sold out 50 nights in London (over a million tickets).
AndrewCowley
Refugee
Most of the European stadium shows will sell out with no trouble. I'm not so sure about the US. Given the number of ticket sales required for a stadium sell out, you need to engage a lot of 'casual' fans, and for that you have to look at where U2 are in terms of popularity in the US. They don't have the same universal draw power in all US cities as they have in countries in Europe. That might be the difference; cities vs. whole countries.
I don't believe that album sales are necessarily a fair gauge for ticket sales - look at The Rolling Stones. However, these are different economic times, and the ticket prices somewhat reflect that. Worse comes to worse, tickets will be easier to come by for us multi-show folk.
I'll say (numbers in thousands):
Phoenix 35
Las Vegas 33
Tampa 28
Raleigh 25
Atlanta 36
Dallas 34
Norman 22
Houston 32
Charlottesville 29
D.C. 55
pudgie_child
War Child
Vegas will sell out.
Maoilbheannacht
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Do you realize that on Vertigo, U2 sold 19,000 tickets in Tampa in less than 45 minutes, yet your predicting they will not be able to sell more than 28,000 tickets in 6 months?
All of the markets above that were played on Vertigo soldout in minutes or hours of going on sale. 38,000 tickets for two shows in Washington DC soldout in less than 30 minutes!
pudgie_child
War Child
Success on one tour doesn't always lead to success on the subsequent tour.
Por ejemplo, U2 sold 150,000 tickets between the L.A. and O.C. shows on the Zoo TV Outside Broadcast, yet only sold about 65,000 tickets in their only L.A. area show on the subsequent Popmart tour.
Tampa has also been notoriously inconsistent in its "worship" of U2.
I'm not sure what to think about the Landover show, but it's such a shitty concert venue that it wouldn't shock me if they had trouble selling tickets for it.
Maoilbheannacht
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The LA and OC shows on ZOO TV did not all sellout in the first 45 minutes, the first few hours, days, or even weeks. But U2's shows in Tampa and DC on the Vertigo tour soldout in minutes. That means people got shut out of the market. The band essentially underplayed both Tampa and Washington DC on Vertigo. When you do that, you increase the level of demand to see you the next time you come around. U2 did not underplay anywhere on ZOO TV.
Actually the first LA Zoo TV stadium show did sell out within an hour or two. I remember calling (yes, calling) Ticketmaster and being denied. I think the second one sold out pretty quickly too.
Just because someone wanted to see them four years ago, doesn't mean they want to see them today. As many have said, in order to fill stadiums you need to attract the casual fans. A lot of casual fans haven't even heard the new stuff. A lot of them probably aren't willing to spend (on average) $90 in this economic climate to see them play in a giant stadium.
Maoilbheannacht
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There were 3 stadium shows in the LA area on ZOO TV and the last one did not completely sellout. Again, U2 soldout two shows in Washington DC on the last tour in less than 45 minutes. Sure, anyone can change their mind, but that also includes people who did not even make an attempt the last time and now they want to go to the show.
When you underplay the market as they did on the last tour, you naturally increase the level of demand to see you the next time. U2 has not suffered any sudden decrease in popularity the past four years. Their releasing a new album and going on tour, after having had a massively successful album having sold 10 million copies worldwide, won 8 Grammy awards for the album, and grossed a record $389 million dollars on a rapidly soldout tour.
Look at what happened in Milan last weekend, 80,000 tickets soldout in a few hours. Now they are playing a second 80,000 capacity show in Milan which goes on sale this week. 2 shows in Sweden at the 60,000 capacity Ullivi Stadium soldout in less than 2 hours. The first show in Sweden actually soldout in 15 minutes. They only played one show in that stadium on the Vertigo Tour.
Again, the only statistical evidence we have is the record breaking business the band did on the last tour, and what they have done the past weekend. Where is the statistical evidence that shows the tour will not do well in stadiums?
in my humble opinion u2 has made a very calculated move here with the first four (which will turn into eight minimun) north americian shows as they will all sellout very easily thus creating a buzz about the tour. When you hear the saying that perception is reality, well that rings true and even if the dates following these don't all sellout it won't matter because the preception of the public will be that this is the concert of the year.
AndrewCowley
Refugee
Big differences this time around: The absense of a big lead single. And the album wasn't released in time for it win a bunch of grammies before the tour goes on sale. Those two factors are why I reckon the casual fans won't be engaged enough in these upcoming ticket sales to produce sell outs.
U2FanPeter
Rock n' Roll Doggie Band-aid
The time between album release and first US show is about the same this year as it was in 2005/2001/1992. 1987 and 1997 had a short turn around.
Boots may be stillborn as a lead off, but so was the first single in 1991. There's still 6 months before the first US show.
It's the attendance at show time that matters, not opening day sales.
U2FanPeter
Rock n' Roll Doggie Band-aid
Live Nation has been playing "3-card Monty" with the announcement of dates and tour name. They know enough to proceed slowly with the order of onsale dates and 2nd shows. This can be seen as a shrewd business move or a crack in confidence. We'll know for sure in the next couple weeks. Live Nation value on the stock market is on the line as much as u2's perception/reality of concert drawing power.
You mention the Swedish date selling more than twice as many tickets as 2005. Did you mention that it may possibly be the only Scandenavian visit on the entire 360 tour?
While I do think the numbers in 2009-10 will be comparative to 2005 on both sides of the Atlantic but there is two lingering questions:
-Will Americans eagerly travel to a 2009 gig if it's in a neighbouring major city?
-Have casual fans forgotten the sound issues of bad stadiums shows in the 80's & early 90's?
Europeans seem to be tolerant of both, but Americans have arguably more sonically challenged venues and a more entitled society.
4U2Play
Refugee
Haha, yeah, that's why the Stones, Madonna, Green Day and Metallica sold out their stadium shows here in this entitled society, not to mention Rock The Bells, Coachella, Bonaroo, etc. Maybe it was all Canadians and Europeans attending those big shows
U2's sound doesn't stand a chance with these sonically challenged stadiums here in the US, either, unlike those pristine venues in Europe. Ever seen a show in Amsterdam ArenA or City of Manchester or Berlin? I feel bad that Joe O'Herlihy has to deal with those giant caves again this summer.
I doubt that thousands of US fans will refuse to see U2 this fall because they're worried about the bad sound. Bad economy and high ticket prices, maybe.
pudgie_child
War Child
Haha, yeah, that's why the Stones, Madonna, Green Day and Metallica sold out their stadium shows here in this entitled society, not to mention Rock The Bells, Coachella, Bonaroo, etc. Maybe it was all Canadians and Europeans attending those big shows
From what I read, Madonna didn't sell out many U.S. stadiums on her last tour.
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