Will they sell out stadiums in the USA?

[maycocksean]

I would like that

I'm joking of course, but they better sell out. You get way more shows than us, earn it!

What's GPIII! Haven't you seen around since last tour. Which show(s) are you going to?

 

[4U2Play]

I think U2 are far more money-hungry than most of us want to admit. They've all turned into savvy businessmen, whether it involves tax schemes in Ireland or high tech investment stategies (Palm), there's more to U2 than meets the eye. And don't forget McGuinness' shrewd skills.

A friend of mine worked as a limo driver some years back, and once spent a day driving Larry and Adam around to various business meetings, none of which had anything to do with U2 or music. My buddy said Larry and Adam spent the whole time in the back seat chatting about real estate.

I think the desire to have the highest grossing tour of all time is strong with them, otherwise they would be content with playing US arenas with stadiums mixed in, the way Madonna, Rolling Stones and Green Day recently did. It'd be a safe bet. But, if U2 can sell 60,000 tickets per show at an average price of $100, and surpass the Bigger Bang Tour, they're gonna try it, even if the world economy is collapsing.

I just hope they didn't overreach this time here in the US.

 

[Morgoth321]

Assuming that the retracted tour itinerary is accurate, the band will be skipping population centers like Philadelphia, San Francisco, and Miami, and yet has scheduled shows in Norman, OK and Charlottesville, VA (and maybe Raleigh, NC).

Part of the reason for touring is to maintain your fan base. If a band is not willing to travel to places where people live, it should not be a surprise if ticket sales suffer.

Hopefully the band has come to its senses and is altering the itinerary after East Rutherford, NJ . . . but I doubt it.

I agree that apparently overlooking the major cities you mention is odd. I suppose I could ask a general question, although it's maybe better suited to a different thread - since so much debate has circulated around the tour schedule in relation to US sport: when is a good time to do a N American stadium tour (especially one not? including baseball stadiums as venues)? I for one am very surprised at U2 returning to stadiums everywhere, as it seems to fly in the face of Paul McG's beloved business model (album release in autumn, N American arenas following spring, Europe outdoors in the summer, N American arenas in autumn / winter etc). Obviously it's connected in some way to the clearly delayed release of NLOTH, and I'm guessing that whatever the tour plans were supposed to be, what we're getting isn't quite what was originally intended? In truth, such an elaborate stage production is only suited to large outdoor venues, and I can imagine that the logistical costs involved with this will be large. So, it's evident that the tour is going to run and run.

The announcement of tour dates should be straightforward. The fact that U2.com seem unable to even provide the actual itinerary without chopping and changing onsale dates, and even venues, is truly bizarre. Surely deals with promoters and venues etc should've been locked in completely before going public?

 

[04072511]

A couple of corrections.

1) The POP album was actually more radio friendly when you look at how much airplay the released songs got on US radio compared to ATYCLB and HTDAAB.

2) The band always starts off only announcing a few shows at a time. In North America, ZOO TV OUTSIDE BROADCAST had a total of 42 shows. POPMART had 44 shows. The Joshua Tree tour had 20 stadium shows. When your only doing stadiums, the number of total shows you do in anyone area will usually be less than 50% of what you would do if it was an Arena tour.

3) Back to the POP album and the airplay performance of the singles on the chart VS. ATYCLB and HTDAAB. Peak position:

POP
Discotheque #22
Staring At The Sun #17
Last Night On Earth #74


ATYCLB
Beautiful Day #14
Stuck In A Moment.... #56


HTDAAB
Vertigo #30


As you can see, the POP album is the WINNER in terms of which album was the most "radio friendly". It had 3 songs that made the comprehensive HOT 100 Airplay chart, and usually at higher positions than the next two albums.

Hey, any chance you could post the peak positions for all U2's hits on teh HOT 100 Airplay Only Chart? I've been looking for this info for so long. Peeling off those Dollar Bills would probably be a better place to put it. Thanks

 

[Morgoth321]

I think U2 are far more money-hungry than most of us want to admit. They've all turned into savvy businessmen, whether it involves tax schemes in Ireland or high tech investment stategies (Palm), there's more to U2 than meets the eye. And don't forget McGuinness' shrewd skills.

Yes, fair enough. Their personal wealth does seem to be something of a sore point, particular where Bono is concerned. My impression is that they're the kind of guys who aren't overly ostentatious in terms of flaunting their wealth in an MTV Cribs kind of way, but somehow I'm always still conscious of it. I mean, Edge can still dress in jeans and t-shirts and drive an Audi TT, but he still owns (part-owns?) a 120ft yacht. They all own plenty of property, and where do you suppose they buy their clothes? Not where I buy mine, I'm sure!

I'm not sure if they're 'money-hungry' as such though, although deeds done in their name could certainly imply this. But, since their early / mid 20s they've been lucky enough to live in a cossetted world where everyday mundane things are done for them by assistants and staff, and they have the financial freedom to do pretty much whatever they like. I suspect that, even with the best will in the world, it must be very difficult to remain in touch with the 'real world'.

 

[God Part III]

What's GPIII! Haven't you seen around since last tour. Which show(s) are you going to?

I have 4 GAs for Gothenburg, a Breathe presale code which I'm going to use for Dublin, and I'm on vacation in the south of France when they play in Nice, so I'll try my best and get some there as well

How about you?

(I can't remember, did you make it to Japan?)

 

[U2FanPeter]

U2 did 78 arena shows in the United States and Canada in 2005. At each show there were nearly 5,000 tickets sold that were $160 dollars. Thats 390,000 tickets at $160 which comes out to $62,400,000. Divide $62,400,000 by $250 and you get 249,600 tickets. With the 16 North American shows that have been announced, that works out to 15,600 $250 tickets per show. So, I'd say they will do just find with having 10,000 tickets at that price per show, given that there are only 16 shows on this leg, and likely will not be more than 20 in North America for this leg in 2009.

I needed aspirine after trying to read this post. Not really how liveNation would make their estimates.

To put it another way, Popmart had 48 or so stadium shows in north america. This tour is 15-16 cities. Total attendance numbers from 2001/05 should cover the 2009 shows.

I easily think there is enough people interested in u2 to fill these shows. The problem is convincing 8-10,000 fans to spend $250 and 25,000+ fans to spend $100. Sightlines and acoustics in Stadiums still have a bad reputation in the US.

 

[U2FanPeter]

I think U2 are far more money-hungry than most of us want to admit. They've all turned into savvy businessmen, whether it involves tax schemes in Ireland or high tech investment stategies (Palm), there's more to U2 than meets the eye. And don't forget McGuinness' shrewd skills.

A friend of mine worked as a limo driver some years back, and once spent a day driving Larry and Adam around to various business meetings, none of which had anything to do with U2 or music. My buddy said Larry and Adam spent the whole time in the back seat chatting about real estate.

I think the desire to have the highest grossing tour of all time is strong with them, otherwise they would be content with playing US arenas with stadiums mixed in, the way Madonna, Rolling Stones and Green Day recently did. It'd be a safe bet. But, if U2 can sell 60,000 tickets per show at an average price of $100, and surpass the Bigger Bang Tour, they're gonna try it, even if the world economy is collapsing.

I just hope they didn't overreach this time here in the US.

They've been "savvy businessmen" since the early 80's. The stakes just got bigger. This tour is all about challenging themselves for new records, perceived innovations in stadiums shows and trying to break the record of highest grossing tour.

Nothing wrong with real estate or worrying about their business portfolios. Although the photos of fat Bono in yachts around wealthy parts of France I could do without.

 

[bfloxng]

You're very diplomatic, Morgoth, but I agree: North American U2 fans are spoiled.

That's what happens when your favorite band plays 15 arena shows within 3 hours' driving distance of your house (if you live in the northeast).

Paul McCartney selling 4000 tickets in 7 seconds for a Vegas show cannot be compared to U2 having to sell 80,000 cheaper ducats in Phoenix. You can bet that a large percentage of those McCartney tickets were snatched up by brokers, who will probably make a killing scalping those things to rich, 60 year old Beatles fans who were smart enough to move their 401Ks to cash in October 2007, but missed the McCartney onsale because they were too slow in typing the captcha words.

I think that may have been the best post I have read in years.

 

[Chino]

all I can say is the only concert in my whole life that I went to and I couldn't get a ticket to was one of the last vertigo shows in toronto the scalpers wouldn't take my 200 for a 160 ticket and the show had already started, it was insane

I had two friends in San Diego who waited until the first opening band to go back to the same scalper they saw earlier that day and the girl got a bit nervous once the first band finished playing and she sold her 2 GA tickets cheaper than face value. I can't believe these scalpers wouldn't take $200 even after the show started. I thought scalpers would lower the price way down once the opening bands started playing. Even more if the main band is about to hit the stage or already has.

GA tickets for the two Vertigo Glendale shows could be had for $10 outside the arena before the shows began, such was the weak demand, even though both shows were "sold out"

My 2 friends benefited from this in San Diego for the Elevation Tour. And we're talking about a tour that seemed to have more demand than Vertigo Tour and still, Vertigo Tour was a success selling out everywhere they played.

ZOO TV stadium shows did not sellout in North America, yet that tour was considered a success

If I remember correctly, it broke even.

yet has scheduled shows in Norman, OK and Charlottesville, VA (and maybe Raleigh, NC)

I would be surprised if they decided to play Raleigh considering the fact that they had to cancel the show during PopMart. Sure sure sure, it was blamed on the LCD screen but I doubt it was the screen. Would you rather say that the ticke sales were so low that you cancelled instead of saying that it was cancelled due to technical difficulties?

60 year old Beatles fans who were smart enough to move their 401Ks to cash in October 2007, but missed the McCartney onsale because they were too slow in typing the captcha words

Hahahahahahaha!

I think U2 are far more money-hungry than most of us want to admit. They've all turned into savvy businessmen, whether it involves tax schemes in Ireland or high tech investment stategies (Palm), there's more to U2 than meets the eye. And don't forget McGuinness' shrewd skills

And I wouldn't see anything wrong with that. Don't we all look for opportunities for a bigger paycheck?

 

[ntalwar]

I think the desire to have the highest grossing tour of all time is strong with them, otherwise they would be content with playing US arenas with stadiums mixed in, the way Madonna, Rolling Stones and Green Day recently did. It'd be a safe bet.

McGuinness said they underplayed some markets last time, and wanted to meet demand. I don't think they care about gross as much as net, and a stadium show will net more on average than an arena show.

 

[Maoilbheannacht]

I don't think that is accurate.

10% of the shows will be sold for $30, but only the field GA tickets will be sold for $55, based on what I've read; and there will be space only for a few thousand on the field (not 30% of the ticket holders).

Go to Billboard.com and read the article on the new tour, or pick up the magazine at your newstand. They gave out the rough percentage for each ticket price:

15% at $250
45% at $95
40% at $55 and $30

All field tickets are at $55, but they never said that would be the only place where tickets would be at that price. There will definitely be $55 dollar tickets in the stands, otherwise your going to have area's where people with $95 dollar tickets are sitting 1 row in front of or next to people with $30 dollar tickets.

Also, it did not say 10% would be at the $30 dollar ticket price. It said at least 10,000 tickets at every show would be at the $30 dollar ticket price.

 

[Maoilbheannacht]

You keep claiming that all these mysterious tens of thousands of U2 fans who supposedly could not get tickets on the Vertigo Tour will now show up and fill all the seats for the 360 Tour. Do you have an appoximate number of fans nationwide who couldn't get Vertigo tickets? Where did you get that information?

Precise information like that does not exist, it can only be estimated based on other known facts. It is a fact though that sales after the first day usually go up by 50% by show time in any given market. 73 of the 78 Vertigo shows soldout on the initial day of sale, so I'd say its accurate that potentially 33% of the fans who actually wanted to go to this show got shut out. There is no way to confirm that though.

POPMART Clemson SC sold 13,000 tickets the first, but by show time 3 months later had sold over 20,000 tickets. If the venue only held 13,000 tickets, it would have soldout on day 1, leaving 7,000 fans without tickets.

I don't know a single U2 fan who ended up getting shut out of a show they wanted to attend. One way or another, they all got in. I know fans who attended 40 shows, and many others who attended 20-30 shows. They never had a problem getting tickets for face price, even for tough shows like Boston and Portland. How many fans do you know personally tried to go to a Vertigo concert but couldn't get tickets and stayed home instead?

I'm not talking about die hards or people who obtained tickets through scalpers either before the day of the show or the day of the show. Thousands of more casual fans don't bother with all that when their efforts through normal ticket outlets fail.

When I say shut out, I'm talking about the first day of sales through normal ticket distribution ONLY!

I know dozens of people who were shut out this way. Yes, there are many that find other ways later on to get a ticket, but there are many others, especially more casual fans who do not try to get tickets through scalpers.

The fact that GAs for Glendale were selling for peanuts does indicate weak demand, or else those tickets would have been selling for a much higher amount. This is basic economics, isn't it. The biggest band in the world not selling out two arena shows without a big assist from scalpers who bought too many tickets indicates weak demand by U2's standards.

What you don't realize is that when scalpers dive into the market, they push out more casual fans who are trying to get tickets and will not be walking up to the venue the day of the show or going online to purchase tickets through alternative channels. Any show that sells out by any artist anywhere in the world, through normal distribution methods, was aided to some degree by scalpers. Yes, scalpers don't sell all their tickets, but not all U2 fans were able to buy tickets through normal distribution methods for the Glendale shows. Your forgetting the fans that were willing to pay face value for tickets, but got shut out the first day, and don't attempt to obtain tickets through scalpers.

The demand for tickets one hour before the show in the parking lot of the arena does not necessarily reflect the total true demand in the city for the concert.

Selling 40,000 tickets in Phoenix for two arena shows in the middle of a booming local economy in 2005 is no doubt an achievement for any band, even if a certain percentage of those tickets were bought by repeat customers, bought on the secondary market for well-below face value or eaten by resellers, but I don't believe that translates into the 80,000 tickets U2 will need to sell in order to fill Phoenix Stadium in the middle of an economic meltdown, the likes of which Greater Phoenix has never seen before.

I don't think anyone has ever stated that U2 was going to sell 80,000 tickets in a market like Phoenix. I think they can sell 50,000 to 55,000 tickets, which is more than what they did on ZOO TV or POPMART. There is currently only 1 show for all of California, no shows in Utah, Colorado, or New Mexico. There will be fans from each of these states at the Phoenix show, either because U2 did not come to their state, or that got shut out of the only show or shows in their state.

Yes, U2 considered those Glendale tickets "sold out", but scalpers took a bath on those gigs. That's weak demand for U2, and I suspect brokers won't make the same mistake with the Phoenix show this time around.

When was demand higher in Phoenix for U2 than the Vertigo tour? Do you think it was higher on Elevation? POPMART when 33,000 people showed up? ZOO TV when 36,000 people showed up? Joshua Tree? Unforgettable Fire? Which U2 tour in Phoenix brought the band the most money? Which tour actually soldout ALL of its shows in Phoenix in a record time from the band in that city?

 

[U2FanPeter]

If I remember correctly, it(zootv stadium) broke even.

shut up and stop pulling idiotic facts.

It was the arena shows(not counting merch) having to sell 75% capacity to break even. This is because of the last minute news that they had to pay for the screens they hoped to get for free - as they were owned by thhe same company as their record label.

The Stadium Shows were the gravy train, business wise for the group.

 

[ntalwar]

I don't know a single U2 fan who ended up getting shut out of a show they wanted to attend. One way or another, they all got in. I know fans who attended 40 shows, and many others who attended 20-30 shows. They never had a problem getting tickets for face price, even for tough shows like Boston and Portland. How many fans do you know personally tried to go to a Vertigo concert but couldn't get tickets and stayed home instead?

I saw plenty of fans in DC and NY who got shut out - large groups were outside the arenas looking for sellers. GA, what little there was, was going for $200 minutes before the show.

 

[Maoilbheannacht]

Yeah, and only play in Ireland and Denmark

The entire Vertigo Tour outside of the United States and Canada was in stadiums and every show soldout the day it went on sale. Average attendance per show was 62,000.

 

[Maoilbheannacht]

I think U2 are far more money-hungry than most of us want to admit. They've all turned into savvy businessmen, whether it involves tax schemes in Ireland or high tech investment stategies (Palm), there's more to U2 than meets the eye. And don't forget McGuinness' shrewd skills.

A friend of mine worked as a limo driver some years back, and once spent a day driving Larry and Adam around to various business meetings, none of which had anything to do with U2 or music. My buddy said Larry and Adam spent the whole time in the back seat chatting about real estate.

I think the desire to have the highest grossing tour of all time is strong with them, otherwise they would be content with playing US arenas with stadiums mixed in, the way Madonna, Rolling Stones and Green Day recently did. It'd be a safe bet. But, if U2 can sell 60,000 tickets per show at an average price of $100, and surpass the Bigger Bang Tour, they're gonna try it, even if the world economy is collapsing.

I just hope they didn't overreach this time here in the US.

They are no more money hungry now than when they were on the first album and tour. They have always stated that its a band of four, but a corporation of 5. Adam and Larry have been talking about real estate since 1984.

 

[Maoilbheannacht]

I needed aspirine after trying to read this post. Not really how liveNation would make their estimates.

To put it another way, Popmart had 48 or so stadium shows in north america. This tour is 15-16 cities. Total attendance numbers from 2001/05 should cover the 2009 shows.

I easily think there is enough people interested in u2 to fill these shows. The problem is convincing 8-10,000 fans to spend $250 and 25,000+ fans to spend $100. Sightlines and acoustics in Stadiums still have a bad reputation in the US.

I was just trying to make a point about limiting the number of shows while the supply of fans is the same or greater and the impact that has on demand.

This stadium design is different from past stadium shows. The stage is close to the center of the field, although not in the center. That makes fans all across the stadium, closer on average to the stage than they were in normal stadium set ups. The Police were able to sell tickets at $250 in the stands with the old set up. Plus, the rest of the stands in most Police stadium shows were at the $95 dollar price. The $95 dollar ticket price will not be an issue, but they may struggle to sell the $250 tickets in the smaller markets.

 

[pudgie_child]

Go to Billboard.com and read the article on the new tour, or pick up the magazine at your newstand. They gave out the rough percentage for each ticket price:

15% at $250
45% at $95
40% at $55 and $30

All field tickets are at $55, but they never said that would be the only place where tickets would be at that price. There will definitely be $55 dollar tickets in the stands, otherwise your going to have area's where people with $95 dollar tickets are sitting 1 row in front of or next to people with $30 dollar tickets.

Also, it did not say 10% would be at the $30 dollar ticket price. It said at least 10,000 tickets at every show would be at the $30 dollar ticket price.

Thanks for that info; I hadn't seen that before.

In regards to the price levels, you will be seeing people who paid $250 sitting across the aisle from people who paid $95, which will be more problematic than the scenario you brought up!

 

[phillyfan26]

Considering how few dates they scheduled in the US, it'd be hard not to sell this shows out.

Oh, and no ticket will go unsold in Philly, Seattle, Detroit, Miami, or the Bay Area, that's for sure.

 

[pudgie_child]

Oh, and no ticket will go unsold in Philly, Seattle, Detroit, Miami, or the Bay Area, that's for sure.

By the time they hit those cities, they will be in arenas because of the tepid response they will have received to the stadium shows.

 

[U2FanPeter]

I was just trying to make a point about limiting the number of shows while the supply of fans is the same or greater and the impact that has on demand.

This stadium design is different from past stadium shows. The stage is close to the center of the field, although not in the center. That makes fans all across the stadium, closer on average to the stage than they were in normal stadium set ups. The Police were able to sell tickets at $250 in the stands with the old set up. Plus, the rest of the stands in most Police stadium shows were at the $95 dollar price. The $95 dollar ticket price will not be an issue, but they may struggle to sell the $250 tickets in the smaller markets.

The "barnstorming" tour of early 92 benefited scalpers more than the band. Is there any reason why the band should care if every last seat is sold or not beyond silly "sold out" semantics? This tour is still running off the momentum and sold out shows from 2001/2005.

I don't actually think the placement of Larry's drumset is any closer to the center of the field than it was in 87/92-3/97 for stadiums. Maybe closer to the blinking lights and the side of the walkways. I doubt the 92/97 walkways go out any further than the 2009 ego ramp.

 

[Liesje]

Considering how few dates they scheduled in the US, it'd be hard not to sell this shows out.

Oh, and no ticket will go unsold in Philly, Seattle, Detroit, Miami, or the Bay Area, that's for sure.

I don't know about Detroit. I don't think the Palace shows sold out last time (granted, that's not really that close to Detroit.....). I was selling some seats for someone here and I don't think we sold them until just a day before the show, and there were some empty seats. If the economy really does play a role, then consider that Michigan is at the bottom of the list and every week the car companies and their suppliers are laying off more and more (not just the factory workers either, I know someone in R&D who's in trouble)...

 

[bizkitgto]

By the time they hit those cities, they will be in arenas because of the tepid response they will have received to the stadium shows.

NO WAY!!!! This entire tour is based on tiered stadiums, who would want to see a boring arena show after seeing U2's ginormous LAX Moonbase/claw spectacle/concert...U2 has done arena's to death and I hope to GOD they never tour indoors again!

 

[Maoilbheannacht]

Thanks for that info; I hadn't seen that before.

In regards to the price levels, you will be seeing people who paid $250 sitting across the aisle from people who paid $95, which will be more problematic than the scenario you brought up!

Sure will. Thats the way it was for The Police. The $95 dollar tickets will sell just fine, but initially you may see some gaps towards the back of where the $250 area will be, unless there is enough people willing to pay $250 during the initial first day of sales.

 

[Maoilbheannacht]

The "barnstorming" tour of early 92 benefited scalpers more than the band. Is there any reason why the band should care if every last seat is sold or not beyond silly "sold out" semantics? This tour is still running off the momentum and sold out shows from 2001/2005.

I don't actually think the placement of Larry's drumset is any closer to the center of the field than it was in 87/92-3/97 for stadiums. Maybe closer to the blinking lights and the side of the walkways. I doubt the 92/97 walkways go out any further than the 2009 ego ramp.

With an all stadium tour, I don't think the band should be that worried about selling every last seat in the venue, especially on day one. They did not sellout every stadium on Joshua Tree or ZOO TV. So I agree, they are probably not that concerned about it, but I'm sure they still want to have what would be percieved to be strong or good attendance.

If you go to U2.com and look at the stadium layout for GIANTS STADIUM, you'll notice that where Larry would be is right on the 25 yard line. If the stage was moved just 25 yards to the right, Larry would be on the 50, and right in the center. So it is near the center. Before, Larry's position would have been 35 yards to the left, or where the goal post is, 10 yards deep in the endzone.

 

[Maoilbheannacht]

I don't know about Detroit. I don't think the Palace shows sold out last time (granted, that's not really that close to Detroit.....). I was selling some seats for someone here and I don't think we sold them until just a day before the show, and there were some empty seats. If the economy really does play a role, then consider that Michigan is at the bottom of the list and every week the car companies and their suppliers are laying off more and more (not just the factory workers either, I know someone in R&D who's in trouble)...

Ticketmaster sold all of its tickets on the last tour for the Detroit area. Yes, there may have been some scalpers who did not sell all their tickets or other people trying to resell tickets for whatever the reason, but the band is not concerned about that, nor do they make any money on such transactions.

That being said, Michigan has the worst economy in the United States. The only thing that might help is that if they play there it will be in June/July 2010 on the second leg. With no Chicago or Toronto shows on that leg, many fans from those cities might be pushed into the Detroit market.

 

[pudgie_child]

Sure will. Thats the way it was for The Police. The $95 dollar tickets will sell just fine, but initially you may see some gaps towards the back of where the $250 area will be, unless there is enough people willing to pay $250 during the initial first day of sales.

There are 7 price levels in Amsterdam, if this chart is accurate (no price given for the "light blue" seating):

It just occurred to me that the most expensive ticket here is the equivalent of $192, $58 cheaper than the most expensive ticket in North America.

 

[Hallucination]

Not if they price 10,000 seats a night at $250. Logically, if there were that many people willing to spend that kind of money on U2 tickets, wouldn't there be a lot more paid subscribers to u2.com?

No. I'd pay that much to see numerous bands yet I'm not signed up or even a member of any of their websites, official or fan. Just because someone pays money for a concert ticket doesn't mean they wanna be part of the online fan community.

 

[Mrs. Garrison]

Being from Oklahoma I'm going to guess that Norman will come close to selling out. As said above its a college town, it has a Dell office near by, also Norman is located only 15 minutes from Oklahoma City and around 45 minutes from Tulsa which should bring a fair number of people to the show. Who knows the stadium holds around 84k.

Good points my friend. Norman is the third largest city in Oklahoma and is right next to OKC and all of its suburbs, also Tulsa is an hour and a half away.

And of course Kansas City and Dallas/Ft Worth are both within driving distance.

We do have a DELL center here in OKC, near I35 & I44, what is the signifigance of that again?