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Old 02-02-2010, 11:13 PM   #31
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So, it's cool that there's actually five nominees for Best Animated Film this year, but no Ponyo?
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Old 02-02-2010, 11:23 PM   #32
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looks like we are in agreement, except for picture

I know most times it goes with director, I just think they might recognized Avatard for all the break throughs.

Screenplays ?? I'll have to think about that,
does it make any difference that Up in the Air book had nothing in it about the 'Backpack' speech or even the assistant character that is nominated for best supporting?
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Old 02-02-2010, 11:35 PM   #33
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looks like we are in agreement, except for picture

I know most times it goes with director, I just think they might recognized Avatard for all the break throughs.

Screenplays ?? I'll have to think about that,
does it make any difference that Up in the Air book had nothing in it about the 'Backpack' speech or even the assistant character that is nominated for best supporting?
Avatar has the money behind it and the Golden Globes win, that's it though; The Hurt Locker's won every other major precursor. I know Locker was in a similar spot that L.A. Confidential was in vs. Titanic, but it seems like the the latter had more momentum in its favor. That being said, I'm not surprised if there's any kind of Avatar/Locker split in either direction.

There Will Be Blood was a loose adaptation of its source material, still got the nomination. If it's based on anything, then it's adapted, I think. It seems like Tarantino will get at least one award, since it's the first time he's been recognized by the Academy since Pulp Fiction anyway. It's tough to choose between him and the Coens though.
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Old 02-02-2010, 11:43 PM   #34
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Sure,
Like I said I am not that up on screenplay awarding

I know I was disappointed to see Glasser? win for Traffic

The film was good for me, about an 8,
the BBC series, Traffik was a solid 9.5 for me.

He took a brilliant work and turned it into a very good film
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Old 02-02-2010, 11:48 PM   #35
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Stephen Gaghan. I haven't seen the mini-series yet. I've seen you and a slew of others speak highly of it though. The film's pretty stellar, definitely a towering directorial achievement for Soderbergh.

Juno's Original Screenplay win is the first thing I cite when someone mentions dubious screenplay wins.
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Old 02-03-2010, 02:34 AM   #36
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It's strange, but I find myself remembering Gaghan's Syriana more fondly than Traffic now, and I'm a big fan of the latter as well. Maybe because it's an original script, I don't know. But I found it very powerful.

I think you're right about original screenplay, YLB. The Coens won too recently, and Tarantino's award was 16 years ago. I just can't see The Hurt Locker winning here, probably the least important element of this film, and certainly no memorable dialogue.

Also, if The Hurt Locker takes editing over Avatar, I think it's winning Best Pic.
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Old 02-03-2010, 04:25 AM   #37
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Stephen Gaghan. I haven't seen the mini-series yet. I've seen you and a slew of others speak highly of it though. The film's pretty stellar, definitely a towering directorial achievement for Soderbergh.

.
I don't know how much you will enjoy the 6 hour TV Traffik
after have seen the movie.

When the WTF moments pop up, you will see them coming, being that you know the basic story.

I also, think Syriana was a much than Traffic,
I think Clooney did better work in that than in Up in the Air or Michael Clayton.
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Old 02-03-2010, 10:59 AM   #38
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Also, if The Hurt Locker takes editing over Avatar, I think it's winning Best Pic.


agreed. Best Editing seems to be the best indicator of what will likely win BP.

here's my picks:

Picture: Avatar
Director: Bigelow
Actor: Bridges
Actress: Streep
Supp. Actor: Waltz
Supp. Actress: Mo'Nique
Original Screenplay: Inglourious Basterds
Adapted Screenplay: Up in the Air



i think Bigelow is a lock. the last two serious female contenders were Sofia Coppola, who was beaten by a sure-thing (Jackson for LOTR trilogy), and Jane Campion, who was beaten by a little known director named Steven Spielberg who directed a not-important-at-all film called Schindler's List.

it also helps that THL probably is the best directed of the bunch.

but Avatar represents what the dream factory can do, and the Oscars are all about awarding those films which the industry best feels represents itself, to the world and to history. this way, they get to honor a woman, and they get to honor the billions that were made of industry professionals who were employed in the making of Avatar.

i could be wrong about Streep, but i think after 16 nominations, many will think that it's about time for her to finally win her 3rd -- for Bullock, a nomination is like a win. she's a genial actress, and knows what she can and cannot do, and it's nice that she's maintained a highly successful career after growing out of "girlfriend" roles. but Streep is due another, at least to distinguish her from the mere mortals who have won 2 times already (Foster, Fonda, etc.)

but who knows?
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Old 02-03-2010, 11:04 AM   #39
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I also have a feeling it will be a Bigelow/Avatar split, but I am hoping that the Academy feels an adequate sense of shame for rewarding Titanic, a truly heinous film, and rectifies that mistake by having The Hurt Locker take Best Picture.

As for the acting awards, agree with deep on all of them.
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Old 02-03-2010, 01:35 PM   #40
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Streep has probably done much better work in the last 25+ years since she won before, but always ran up against tough competition when she was nominated; charming ingenues, or overdue veterans. Here she's apparently going head-to-head someone who is neither, but is riding a wave of populist sentiment. I'd rather see Streep win than Bullock, but it would be even better to see one of the younger actresses take it. A shame that Mulligan's momentum has weakened so much since An Education made the festival rounds.
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Old 02-03-2010, 07:20 PM   #41
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Next would be Bridges.
This

Did u see him on The Tonight Show (RIP)...he was great!
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Old 02-03-2010, 11:15 PM   #42
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Princess and the Bride needs to win Animation. It won't, of course. Fuck.

Nice to see HBP up there with some of the big boys for Cinematography. It won't win, of course. Fuck.

I'm not a huge fan of the song (although I think it was improved greatly for the film), but am a little disappointed that Winter didn't get the nomination. Would have been cool to see those old Irish farts performing again at the Oscars.

The actor awards seem to all be sewn up for Bridges, Bullock, Waltz, and DoMo'Nique Wilkins.

I think QT will get his second Original Screenplay statue, and that will make me happy.

As for Best Picture? I surely hope it doesn't go to Avatar, but I won't be surprised at all if it does.
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Old 02-04-2010, 12:52 AM   #43
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Streep has probably done much better work in the last 25+ years since she won before,


i was really pulling for her in "Adaptation" -- would have been a great nod to her comedic work which gets overlooked by her myriad accents.

at least, though, "Julia" shows her having fun and not being in a super-serious "I AM MERYL STREEP" type of role that she lived in during the 80s and early 90s. it's fun to watch her have fun.
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Old 02-04-2010, 01:35 AM   #44
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Was she nominated for Bridges of Madison County? She must have been, right?
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Old 02-04-2010, 03:05 AM   #45
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Yep. Susan Sarandon won that year for Dead Man Walking.
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