Survivor: South Pacific

[Sicy]

The way I see it, Cochran wasn't going to win anyway. He can't win challenges, and once the other tribe was gone, he would've been picked off right away by his own tribe, because in that scenario they wouldn't want him in the Top 3 for fear of receiving "underdog" votes.

So now, he might actually proceed further and get to the Top 3 because everyone knows he won't get the votes to win after pissing off his former tribe. So in that sense, he's going to last longer in the game.

I agree. I think it was a bold move and hopefully it will get him further.

 

[BigMacPhisto]

Based on a deleted scene, Coach had a great read on Cochran and even offered him a Final Four deal, so I guess they were certain going into that tribal council about what was going to happen. Otherwise, it would have made sense for Coach to toss someone the idol. If he gives it to the right person, their tribe wins. If he gives it to the wrong one, only four of the six of them would draw rocks against Cochran/Jim, so it would have really helped their odds if they played the idol. Risky move, but it paid off not to use it.

Ozzy's done next week if he doesn't win immunity. Coach isn't playing around this time. He wants the threats gone.

 

[deep]

this talk about 5- 2 odds is just stupid
this is not a team game,

Cochran made the only reasonable vote.
the stupid vote was the other guy on his team that was not safe,
he voted for a 1 in seven chance to go home.

if I see a gun on a table with one bullet in it, why would I choose to play Russian roulette, when I could choose not to play.

 

[deep]

Jim Rice, poker player, medical marijuana dispenser is the stupidest guy in the game.

I would have liked to see him pull out the black rock.

Once Dawn got safe, it was the moral thing for Cochran to risk his neck to better her game. What a phony.

 

[Daddysgonnapay]

But this really all goes back to the boneheaded decision that Ozzy made last time out. Sure, he won at RI and got back in the game. But by keeping Cochran around, they have pretty much fucked themselves. If they had ditched Cochran last week, Christine would have won at RI and re-entered the game. She would have hooked up with Ozzy's tribe, and based on the odds, they most likely would have come out of last night's TC on top.

They have no one to blame but themselves.

Agree

But I think Cochran screwed himself with the move he made this week...he could have easily played both teams for at least 2 more days, got more info from the other tribe...fed that back to his team ....talked Dawn into flipping...she seemed close to flipping.....and had more power....now he has a lot of anger to deal with for throwing all his team under the bus....they will be gunning for him.

 

[deep]

Dawn?
once she won immunity, she flipped on Cochran, she was safe, so she just wanted him to gamble on the rocks for her advantage.

What 2 days are you talking about? If he or Jim for that matter drew the black rock he was toast. Now there are at least 4 others lower on the list than him.

 

[BigMacPhisto]

I guess Cochran didn't lose all that much the more I think about it. Coach and Co. have no reason to eliminate him before the Final 7 and he arguably has more mobility hooking up with these guys.

I do agree that Dawn probably would have flipped as well in order to avoid drawing rocks. Once she had the immunity necklace, she didn't have to worry about being ousted by random chance, hence the back-tracking.

 

[Hewson]

Based on a deleted scene, Coach had a great read on Cochran and even offered him a Final Four deal, so I guess they were certain going into that tribal council about what was going to happen. Otherwise, it would have made sense for Coach to toss someone the idol. If he gives it to the right person, their tribe wins. If he gives it to the wrong one, only four of the six of them would draw rocks against Cochran/Jim, so it would have really helped their odds if they played the idol. Risky move, but it paid off not to use it.

.

But there was no reason to use it as soon as Ozzy said he was playing his idol for Whitney, cause they knew their votes were for Keef, therefore there was no risk of Rick going home. He could have used it to ensure Keith went out without a revote, which could have saved Cock Ring from having to flip(but Cock Ring flipping helps Coach not just in numbers, but by creating more discord within the opposing tribe), and also eliminated any chance of drawing rocks if there was no flip, but Ozzy played his hand too quickly (with a pro poker player helping with strategy you'd think they'd have concealed things better, this would never have happened with Jean-Robert ) and made it an easy non decision for Coach if it had ever entered his mind.

 

[Hewson]

I guess Cochran didn't lose all that much the more I think about it. Coach and Co. have no reason to eliminate him before the Final 7 and he arguably has more mobility hooking up with these guys.

.

I actually think Cock Ring may have hurt himself huge.

If he stays with his tribe, and it goes to rocks and one of Coach's band of merry pygmies ends up going home (imagine if it ended up being Coach!), he's now loyally ingrained with the 6 he came to merge with...they have control, and if they stay tight and pick off the rest of the praying pygmies, eventually there's gonna be a power play and we've already seen Jim thinking about getting rid of Ozzy. There'd be a point, probably at 7 left when Jim could have enlisted the last remaining pygmie (assuming it wasn't Brandon who would F the whole thing up) to band together with him, Cock Ring and Dawn and take out Ozzy and Keith, and suddenly the final 3 shapes up as Jim, Dawn and Cock Ring...Jim would definitely have gone this route I think, cause he'd assume he'd have his best shot of winning against those 2, especially if Cock Ring had not flipped therefore not earning any votes from the merry pygmies.

Of course Redemption Island can throw any plan into a tailspin, but I could have foreseen a scenario like this which could have gotten Cock Ring to the end, and maybe he'd have goten some jury votes...now I see him out at 7th most likely (6th at best if Brandon flakes out too much) and as I stated previously, if he somehow made it to the end, he's very screwed with jury votes now.

 

[BigMacPhisto]

I do agree with your scenario Hewson. It's what I hinted at earlier. I think Jim/Cochran would have likely worked together to get out Keith/Ozzy.

The only real problem with that scenario is that Keith clearly wasn't playing for himself. He would have likely wanted to remove Cochran at some point, if only so he didn't have to risk losing to him. So, Ozzy/Keith/Whitney could simply pull aside one or two of the people left from Coach's tribe to help them oust Cochran if need be.

But yeah, most likely Cochran would have gone further had he stuck with the old gang. Now, however, he's still in the game since he didn't draw rocks and he also has a chance of getting carried to the end since there's at least four people (Jim/Ozzy/Keith/Whitney) that would never vote for him to win.

 

[anitram]

I think Cochran made a mistake, but not one that will cost him a huge amount.

Right now I think he's assured himself a 7th place finish. I'd be very surprised if he got further than that. There is no reason for Upolu not to simply pick off the members of the other tribe and finish off with Cochran.

I think he could have finished higher than 7th had he not flipped. His team had a huge advantage, they could be picking people off over the next few episodes. Then, when it gets down to the 6 Savaii, I wouldn't think that Cochran goes first, though I don't see him making it much further than 6th either.

Cochran's game is done.

I just pray that Coach doesn't win this thing. After Boston Rob, would just get old. Plus I find him irritating.

My b/f and I did a pool (draft style) immediately after the first episode of the season. My pick was Sophie.

 

[BigMacPhisto]

The cockiness of Ozzy knows no bounds. He's been voted out of the game and is still confident that he's going to dominate.

Coach is clearly the winner as the editors keep pushing him as the dominant force there, specifically the first day's events beginning with Coach's tai-chi or whatever the hell he does.

From next week's preview, it's clear that Albert's not a dumb bunch of rocks, but he really doesn't have the numbers to change his fate. Coach has three people (Edna/Brandon/Rick) firmly in his hand and potentially one more (Cochran). I just don't see any of Edna/Brandon/Rick ever attempting to vote Coach out, even right before the final tribal council. He's going to take this in a cakewalk and win unanimously.

 

[MrPryck2U]

Yes, Ozzy is making Coach look like a genius. Fuck Ozzy and his dumbass stained shirt! I'm rooting for Cochran. He's a compelling character on the show. I don't think he'll win, but I find him entertaining.

 

[Hewson]

After tonight, I really don't want to see any of Coach's band of condescending pygmies win, least of all Brandon.

 

[anitram]

Coach is clearly the winner as the editors keep pushing him as the dominant force there, specifically the first day's events beginning with Coach's tai-chi or whatever the hell he does.

They're also presenting him as an asshole. I really don't see him winning.

Brandon is just loathsome. Cochran is pathetic.

 

[BigMacPhisto]

Albert could possibly pull it off next week the more I think about it. Him/Sophie/Whitney/Dawn are four votes, so they'd only need to swing either Rick or Cochran. It's a great deal for Rick or Cochran to take since they'd be given a final three spot alongside Albert/Sophie. Everybody wins that makes that move.

Most likely though, I imagine Albert will give Cochran this offer and he'll just rat-back to Coach about it. Funny how Cochran will say he's trying to do whatever helps his game best and then wuss out when given the chance to pull the game's most pivotal blindside.

 

[deep]

the only person that deserves to win or should get any votes from a 'non petty' jury, would be Coach

if Cochran is smart enough flip on Coach, not now, but when the time is right, then he deserves to get votes from a 'non petty' jury


please, give me a case for any of the other contestants

 

[anitram]

I agree.

But there is no such thing as a "non-petty jury".

And everyone who watches this game knows that. So if you want to win, you need to pander to the jury to some extent, or at the very least not antagonize them like Coach did (that wave at Jim was particularly obnoxious and I actually can't stand Jim).

I think one of the low-key people will win this year - watch for Albert or Sophie...even Edna if she could sneak in there. (I have to admit I am somewhat biased as my #1 draft pick was Sophie way at the outset and I have a dinner riding on it.)

 

[Sicy]

What about Cowboy. I dont think he's said a word this whole season. He must make it to the finals

 

[anitram]

Haha I totally forgot about him!

 

[maycocksean]

This is probably the first Survivor in years where this late in the season, I still don't have a dog in the fight. I honestly don't care who wins.

And yet I'm still enjoying the season.

I continue to be annoyed at the sanctimony among Cochran's tribemates over his supposed "cowardice" in betraying them. I hate it when people act as if others are duty bound to bend over for them, and get all pissy when they don't.

 

[Hewson]

This is probably the first Survivor in years where this late in the season, I still don't have a dog in the fight. I honestly don't care who wins.

And yet I'm still enjoying the season.
.

The first half of the season was pretty compelling, as the tribes seemed evenly matched and we had some drama with the Brandon looniness etc.

It seems a little less interesting the past 2 weeks...should ramp up again when we're down to the final 7 (Coach's band of Merry Condescending Pygmies plus special guest star Cock Ring).

I don't have anyone there right now I'm rooting for...earlier on kind of wanted Coach to win, but the praying to victory nonsense and some of his recent actions (his wave off to Jim as anitram mentioned) have turned me off him...he needs to go back to being loco-Coacho.

Cock Ring's strutting around in Coach's blazer was pathetic...anyone notice Probst's expression when Cock Ring went to vote wearing it?

And what about when they were eating and Brandon said he was done and Cock Ring said "you can rest your head on my shoulder"...Brandon wants Mikaela out cause she's a hot temptress, but has no problem with this?

Maybe the RI returnee will somehow shake up the end game...but right now it seems a tad predictable and bland unless someone makes a bold move, and it doesn't appear any of them are capable.

 

[maycocksean]

^I agree by and large with you. Both teams have a very "school-yard" approach to the game. From early on most of the players (with the exception of Cochran) have seemed blind to their position in their respective tribes. And Cochran's lack of personal confidence is a real weakness for him. He's gone from being the water boy for one tribe to the water boy for the other tribe.

 

[phanan]

I hope Albert makes a move and that it works.

 

[BigMacPhisto]

Well, the obvious move was figured out by the five that would benefit from it.

And they did nothing whatsoever.

Albert & Sophie should enjoy seventh and sixth place for scheming against Edna earlier in the game. Coach will then drag whomever he wants to the end.

 

[Daddysgonnapay]

Totally annoyed with tonights show

 

[Hewson]

Totally annoyed with tonights show

Its got me rooting for Ozzy to make it back from RI...seems the only way the end of the game could be interesting.

Plus if he does get back in, he may have a good shot of winning. It certainly appears it'll be a final 3 with 9 jury members. If Ozzy were to get dropped back in the game late enough, he might need to win 1 or 2 individual immunities to get to the final 3, something he's capable of if they are physical challenges. If so he would have Keith, Jim, Dawn and Whitney on the jury who should vote for him, so he'd need either one more vote or a split of the other 5 jury members to win. Sadly thats what I'm hoping to see now.

Earlier in the season I couldn't stand Ozzy's whining etc., but now thats a distant memory and much easier to swallow than the cult like following of Coach we're seeing from Edna, Rick, Brandon and Sophie. Albert is the only one to have shown any independent thinking, but has failed to follow through on it cause he couldn't sway anyone (Sophie) to think for themselves as well.

 

[Daddysgonnapay]

Exactly my thoughts Hewson....I hate the editing like something big is going to happen....then the vote is read and it is a non-issue...boring, boring , boring! the big move would be if all these Bozo's would grow a pair and vote Coach out!! but doesn't look like that will happen

 

[maycocksean]

I'll have to join the chorus of disappointment here. In a season of missed opportunities this was yet another big one. I don't know what potential endgame Sophie sees that is more to her benefit by sticking with the Coach Cult.

I was actually hoping that Whitney would win the immunity challenge just to see how the vote would have gone down if they couldn't vote for her.

I do think if Ozzie gets back in, he will probably go all the way, and then win the game. As for the others, I think any of them could win except for Cochran and Edna. Anybody sitting next to those two should clean up handily. Rick too, has been pretty much a do-nothing cowboy.

 

[Sicy]

I was actually hoping that Whitney would win the immunity challenge just to see how the vote would have gone down if they couldn't vote for her.

Meeee too.