I think Spencer wins the game if he gets to the final 3. He'll need to win the final immunity challenge to do so. He's played pretty smart save for the misplay on the idol. But actually his smartest move last night might have been to target Woo, cause no way (Jac)Kass or Trish (the non dish) is winning an immunity challenge (Friggin Trish was still on the 3rd rung of her ladder when the challenge ended....worst Survivor challebge competitor ever). So knowing his most realistic shot is to win the final challenge, eliminating Woo would have given him a huge advantage.
But he was satisfied in getting Woo to turn on Trish and then maybe he can convince Woo and (Jac)Kass to take Tony out next if Tony doesn't convince them his supercalifraglistic idol is still viable.
Figure Sencer has a good chance of securing Tasha, Jeremiah, Morgan and Sarah, plus if its Kass voted out probably her as well, so that would be enough to win if he's in the final (He might get Jefra and LJ also since Tony blindsided them and Woo was complicit both times).
If Tony gets to the final against Woo and Kass he probably still wins unless he just has a horrible final tribal answering jury questions (which is possible), then Woo has a shot because he's likeable.
So her'e my rundown ov voting in possble final 3 groupings:
Spencer 6
Tony 3
(Jac)Kass 0
Spencer 5
Woo 4
(Jac)Kass 0
Spencer 5
Tony 2
Woo 2
Tony 5
Woo 4
(Jac)Kass 0
With the last groupling being the most likely to change based on what could happen at final Tribal and Woo possibly winning.
One thing for sure, I don't see any way (Jac)Kass secures a single vote, so you should pencil her in for the final 3, cause the other players are all smart enough to realize her presence essentially makes it a final 2.
A little surprised Tony didn't play his regular idol for Trish, but his reasoning has to be to convince the others that the SupermegawowzaOMGbestidolever idol will automatically get him to the finals and hope not to get any votes.
He had the right idea of sitting final 3 with Non Dish and (Jac)Kass before (Jac)Kass blew it up, cause he'd have won that vote 9-0-0.
Go Spencer.