83rd Annual Acadamy Awards

[LMP]

If we needed any more proof that the critics know more about film or have better taste than the people that actually work in the industry, this is it.

Critics certainly have a more varied taste. The people in the industry work the entire year and only get a chance to see the films that "everyone's buzzing about" or where their friends are featured. It's absurd to the point of disbelief. It doesn't affect how I watch or perceive movies, but it sure does affect a ton of other people.

 

[Lancemc]

"Critics" is a bit inclusive too for any reliable indication of taste or intellectual value in cinema discussion. Most in that group are just as uninformed or misguided as Academy members, and have the added flaw of a misconception that people should actually give a shit what they have to say. But still, as LMP points out, at the very least they watch a far greater number of films, so their collective awards or whatever tend to at least be a bit more reflective of the state of the art.

 

[deep]

I don't understand all the upset at this outcome.

TKS is not a terrible film. In fact it is a good film. And SAG looks at performances over other aspects of film making.

Critics??? That is a very broad group, with some suspect members included.

With SAG, I believe the winner is the plurality winner in the voting.



Best Ensemble
'Black Swan'
'The Fighter'
'The Kids Are All Right'
'The King's Speech'
'The Social Network'


Looking at the noms, my guess is that it won with around 30%

I think a majority of Swan and Kids are Alright voters would have chosen TSN over TKS.

Perhaps they should switch to a weighted vote system where they take the least votes film and tally the second choice until one film gets over 50%?

 

[Canadiens1131]

If it's meaningless, I wonder why you're taking the time to post in a thread for the Academy Awards.

The time? Killing time is one of the main reasons most people post on forums, and this is one of the more active threads of late. As I've said before the Oscars are a fun enough distraction to follow each year, but I do think it's asinine to ascribe any realimportance to them, or to any art or entertainment "awards" in general. Especially to the point of emotional investment.

People subconsiously place value in entertainment awards for the same reason they post in forums.

It's the need to have a group of people acknowledge your opinions, or to get pissed when they refute those ideas, because you're right in the end, of course.

Worried abt u guys

 

[deep]

you didn't write anything about my well-reasoned post?

 

[Lancemc]

It's the need to have a group of people acknowledge your opinions, or to get pissed when they refute those ideas, because you're right in the end, of course.

Definitely not why most of us post here. Well, by "us" at least I mean the reasonably sane people to which I tend to limit my interactions here. As for awards... yeah that probably fits.

 

[Saracene]

Bonham Carter, Guy Pearce and Michael Gambon were also excellent.

Bonham Carter and Gambon were good, but IMO not anywhere as good as the leads. Guy Pearce to me was just poor casting, he's supposed to be an older brother and yet he is seven years younger than Firth and comes off as a younger brother in the film. Plus I just didn't buy him in the role of a British king, and no not because he grew up in Australia (I had no such problem with Cate Blanchett).

 

[deep]

Timothy Spall as Winston Churchill was cringe worthy and historically wrong.

 

[Lancemc]

Pearce easily looked 10 years older though. Let's hope it was just make-up for his sake.

 

[purpleoscar]

Timothy Spall as Winston Churchill was cringe worthy and historically wrong.

That was a strange performance. It was more like Alfred Hitchcock, though I still love the movie overall.

 

[deep]

Sprall has the look

but he didn't get the part

Anthony Hopkins to take on Alfred Hitchcock - January 29, 2011

 

[MrsSpringsteen]

Uhoh

Oscar predictions: Did Melissa Leo torpedo her campaign? | Inside Movies | EW.com

"Since my last round of predictions, two major Oscar-related events have taken place. The Writers Guild Awards were handed out to The Social Network and Inception, and Melissa Leo released her own (now controversial) campaign ads. Though Leo has been applauded by some for her chutzpah, I’ve talked to a few Academy members who now say they’re less likely to vote for her after the faux-fur-filled photos. I actually had True Grit‘s Hailee Steinfeld at the top of my supporting-actress rankings before the ads came out. At this point it could go either way."



OSCAR: Melissa Leo Goes Rogue With Her Own Personal Campaign Ads – Deadline.com

"I spoke to Leo today moments after she arrived in New Orleans to resume her role in HBO’s Treme. She explained the ads followed months of her frustration at not being able to land magazine covers, even with all the awards and attention for The Fighter. Leo is 50 years old and she attributes the media's lack of interest to ageism and because of that and other factors she’s not considered "box office". “I took matters into my own hands. I knew what I was doing and told my representation how earnest I was about this idea. I had never heard of any actor taking out an ad as themselves and I wanted to give it a shot," Melissa told me. So she and three friends arranged a special "fun" photo shoot instead of using the usual studio-prepared photo from the film for "For Your Consideration" ads.

“I am quite certain I have not overstepped any boundaries of the Academy," Leo told me. "I did hear a lot of very positive comments, particularly from women of a certain age who happen to act for a living and happen to understand full well the great dilemma and mystery of getting a cover of a magazine. I also heard there were negative comments, but no one said them to my face, sadly. I like to hear what people think. I could explain myself."

 

[Carek1230]

Wow, did anyone else watch the BAFTAs yesterday? The Kings Speech had 14 nominations I believe and although not all awards were aired, the film took 6 of the main awards in a big sweep. Amazing. Natalie Portman won Best Actress and awards also went to Inception and Social Network. Wondering how much of a trend this may indicate with Oscar awards?

 

[deep]

All the BAFTA voters get to vote for the Oscars, right?

 

[MissVelvetDress_75]

Wow, did anyone else watch the BAFTAs yesterday? The Kings Speech had 14 nominations I believe and although not all awards were aired, the film took 6 of the main awards in a big sweep. Amazing. Natalie Portman won Best Actress and awards also went to Inception and Social Network. Wondering how much of a trend this may indicate with Oscar awards?

I watched a good bit of it late last night. From what I have heard in years past, the winners at the BAFTAs tend to be the same for the Oscars.

 

[Carek1230]

^Exactly. Between the Golden Globes and BAFTAs, those are pretty much spoilers for the Oscars. I'll be happy though.

 

[Saracene]

I found it interesting that the Best Director went to David Fincher even though The King's Speech is a big winner and directed by a Brit. It does strongly suggest a Best Picture/Best Director split later on.

 

[kramwest1]

I found it interesting that the Best Director went to David Fincher even though The King's Speech is a big winner and directed by a Brit. It does strongly suggest a Best Picture/Best Director split later on.

I've got to believe that Fincher is the favorite for Best Director, and The Social Network for Adapted Screenplay. I'm still so impressed that they made it so fascinating and engrossing.

Best Picture still is a bit of a mystery for me.
Right now I'm thinking:

1. The Social Network
2. The King's Speech
3. The Fighter

 

[lazarus]

If The King's Speech loses, it will be one of the biggest shocks ever. It's not often that a film comes from behind and becomes the frontrunner, only to lose in the end. One can look at The Pianist from 2002, which surprisingly won Director, Screenplay, and Actor (but not BP), but it wasn't like everyone thought it was ahead going into the show.

The King's Speech won the Producer's Guild, Director's Guild, and SAG Ensemble awards, and there is nothing to suggest the tide has turned since then.

All that one can hope for is Fincher's consolation prize in Directing, which I'm not even very confident about.

 

[Lancemc]

I'm reasonably sure about Fincher's direction win, and Sorkin is a lock for screenplay. Those are good wins for the film.

 

[lazarus]

You notice that whenever there seems to be a BP/BD split, it's the latter that is usually the better film?

Exception: Shakespeare in Love/Saving Private Ryan

One wonders if Malick will be in the same situation next year.

 

[Lancemc]

Very possibly, unless ToL ends up being even too abstract a film for that much attention (I kind of suspect it might).

 

[kramwest1]

I think The Social Network has an edge simply because of the ranked-choice voting. I think the 10 BP format is silly, but it's hard to believe that TSN isn't most people's 1st, 2nd or 3rd choice.

I'm not looking to argue; I'll be very content to sit and watch the broadcast again this year--some really enjoyable movies in 2010.

 

[deep]

The ranked or weighted voting was only used to get the nominees

It will be a simple plurality vote for the winner.

With that in mind, The King's Stammer has the advantage.

 

[lazarus]

You keep regurgitating this information and I don't think it's correct.

It's not a weighted ballot but it isn't as simple as you're making it out to be.

They still have to rank the BP winners:

Oscars Best Picture Ballot: Don't Believe the Schmucks | TheWrap.com


I suggest everyone reads that article. It's very easy to understand.

 

[deep]

Steve Pond's article is poorly written. He was a fairly decent rock critic in the 1980s.

For my last post I just went to the Academy website and read their rules. It lead me to believe what I wrote.

But after doing some more research, I guess there is a instant run off, to push the winner over 50%.

With that in mind, I would ask which films will come in 10th or 9th. And what would those voters likely vote for 2nd?

I would think Toy Story and Winter's Bone would be near the bottom.

I see fans of those films both more likely to have TSN as their 2nd choice more than the stuffy King's Speech. With that in mind, TSN has a real shot to win.

 

[lazarus]

Yeah it's a tough call. I'm not so sure about Toy Story. People really seem to love it.

The Kids Are Alright seems more like something where people think it has great acting and writing but isn't OMG THE BEST. And I feel that 127 Hours is another one that probably just made the cut.

Winter's Bone I agree with.

True Grit is another one that everyone seems to like, but do many think it's the best?

I think the Winter's Bone and 127 Hours voters would go TSN, but the Kids and Grit people would lean towards King's Speech.

Toy Story is also one of those heartwarming films so even if you're right about it having lesser support I think those would go for Speech.

If it's really a close race and nothing manages to get over 50% after each round, the one at the bottom with the least #1 votes will keep getting eliminated with those ballots' #2 choice getting credit. So then you can look at the others like Inception (will lean towards TSN) , The Fighter (will lean towards Speech), Black Swan (will lean towards TSN).

 

[deep]

I think The Kids Are Alright voters has more of a 'hipster' ? type fanbase, not a traditional story. and therefore would break more towards TSN than the 'traditionalist' King's Speech.

I just think Toy Story has more of a 'young' fanbase, and therefore would favor TSN.

 

[kramwest1]

I think The Kids Are Alright voters has more of a 'hipster' ? type fanbase, not a traditional story. and therefore would break more towards TSN than the 'traditionalist' King's Speech.

I just think Toy Story has more of a 'young' fanbase, and therefore would favor TSN.

The Kids Are All Right is a California and a Hollywood movie. It's a fine movie, but I don't think it deserves any of the nominations it got.

 

[lazarus]

Really? None? Not even for the writing and acting? Bening, Moore, Ruffalo, and the daughter were all very good.

I don't think the film is BP-calibre but you know, compared to The Blind Side it doesn't look like an embarrassing nom.