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Old 02-15-2011, 09:43 PM   #106
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^Exactly. Between the Golden Globes and BAFTAs, those are pretty much spoilers for the Oscars. I'll be happy though.
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Old 02-16-2011, 02:51 AM   #107
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I found it interesting that the Best Director went to David Fincher even though The King's Speech is a big winner and directed by a Brit. It does strongly suggest a Best Picture/Best Director split later on.
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Old 02-16-2011, 10:08 AM   #108
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I found it interesting that the Best Director went to David Fincher even though The King's Speech is a big winner and directed by a Brit. It does strongly suggest a Best Picture/Best Director split later on.
I've got to believe that Fincher is the favorite for Best Director, and The Social Network for Adapted Screenplay. I'm still so impressed that they made it so fascinating and engrossing.

Best Picture still is a bit of a mystery for me.
Right now I'm thinking:

1. The Social Network
2. The King's Speech
3. The Fighter
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Old 02-16-2011, 04:38 PM   #109
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If The King's Speech loses, it will be one of the biggest shocks ever. It's not often that a film comes from behind and becomes the frontrunner, only to lose in the end. One can look at The Pianist from 2002, which surprisingly won Director, Screenplay, and Actor (but not BP), but it wasn't like everyone thought it was ahead going into the show.

The King's Speech won the Producer's Guild, Director's Guild, and SAG Ensemble awards, and there is nothing to suggest the tide has turned since then.

All that one can hope for is Fincher's consolation prize in Directing, which I'm not even very confident about.
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Old 02-16-2011, 05:15 PM   #110
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I'm reasonably sure about Fincher's direction win, and Sorkin is a lock for screenplay. Those are good wins for the film.
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Old 02-16-2011, 06:23 PM   #111
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You notice that whenever there seems to be a BP/BD split, it's the latter that is usually the better film?

Exception: Shakespeare in Love/Saving Private Ryan

One wonders if Malick will be in the same situation next year.
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Old 02-16-2011, 07:00 PM   #112
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Very possibly, unless ToL ends up being even too abstract a film for that much attention (I kind of suspect it might).
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Old 02-16-2011, 08:38 PM   #113
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I think The Social Network has an edge simply because of the ranked-choice voting. I think the 10 BP format is silly, but it's hard to believe that TSN isn't most people's 1st, 2nd or 3rd choice.

I'm not looking to argue; I'll be very content to sit and watch the broadcast again this year--some really enjoyable movies in 2010.
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Old 02-17-2011, 01:25 AM   #114
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The ranked or weighted voting was only used to get the nominees

It will be a simple plurality vote for the winner.

With that in mind, The King's Stammer has the advantage.
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Old 02-17-2011, 01:44 AM   #115
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You keep regurgitating this information and I don't think it's correct.

It's not a weighted ballot but it isn't as simple as you're making it out to be.

They still have to rank the BP winners:

Oscars Best Picture Ballot: Don't Believe the Schmucks | TheWrap.com


I suggest everyone reads that article. It's very easy to understand.
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Old 02-17-2011, 03:08 AM   #116
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Steve Pond's article is poorly written. He was a fairly decent rock critic in the 1980s.

For my last post I just went to the Academy website and read their rules. It lead me to believe what I wrote.

But after doing some more research, I guess there is a instant run off, to push the winner over 50%.

With that in mind, I would ask which films will come in 10th or 9th. And what would those voters likely vote for 2nd?

I would think Toy Story and Winter's Bone would be near the bottom.

I see fans of those films both more likely to have TSN as their 2nd choice more than the stuffy King's Speech. With that in mind, TSN has a real shot to win.
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Old 02-17-2011, 03:20 AM   #117
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Yeah it's a tough call. I'm not so sure about Toy Story. People really seem to love it.

The Kids Are Alright seems more like something where people think it has great acting and writing but isn't OMG THE BEST. And I feel that 127 Hours is another one that probably just made the cut.

Winter's Bone I agree with.

True Grit is another one that everyone seems to like, but do many think it's the best?

I think the Winter's Bone and 127 Hours voters would go TSN, but the Kids and Grit people would lean towards King's Speech.

Toy Story is also one of those heartwarming films so even if you're right about it having lesser support I think those would go for Speech.

If it's really a close race and nothing manages to get over 50% after each round, the one at the bottom with the least #1 votes will keep getting eliminated with those ballots' #2 choice getting credit. So then you can look at the others like Inception (will lean towards TSN) , The Fighter (will lean towards Speech), Black Swan (will lean towards TSN).
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Old 02-17-2011, 03:32 AM   #118
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I think The Kids Are Alright voters has more of a 'hipster' ? type fanbase, not a traditional story. and therefore would break more towards TSN than the 'traditionalist' King's Speech.

I just think Toy Story has more of a 'young' fanbase, and therefore would favor TSN.
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Old 02-17-2011, 08:54 AM   #119
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Quote:
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I think The Kids Are Alright voters has more of a 'hipster' ? type fanbase, not a traditional story. and therefore would break more towards TSN than the 'traditionalist' King's Speech.

I just think Toy Story has more of a 'young' fanbase, and therefore would favor TSN.
The Kids Are All Right is a California and a Hollywood movie. It's a fine movie, but I don't think it deserves any of the nominations it got.
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Old 02-17-2011, 11:13 AM   #120
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Really? None? Not even for the writing and acting? Bening, Moore, Ruffalo, and the daughter were all very good.

I don't think the film is BP-calibre but you know, compared to The Blind Side it doesn't look like an embarrassing nom.
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