U2DMfan
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2861U2 said:I thought of another reason why I think the GOP might win- the 2004 election. In the months leading up the election, Bush had about a 50% approval rating (better than today, but still not super great), and Iraq wasn't going as well as planned. Despite the negatives, Bush somehow still attracted and convinced America. I don't think Bush won just because Kerry was a bad candidate.
Actually, I distinctly remember being almost certain that we would lose, but I ended up being wrong. So if I ever get worried or frustrated this coming year, I'll think back to 2004
Bush won in 2004 because of two major reasons, neither had a single thing to do with Kerry. You won't hear that from the Dems though, they've got to be able to blame Kerry or Gore for that matter for being less-than-stellar candidates otherwise they might have to admit that the majority of Americans are not in league with their positions.
Clinton was elected twice and despite what the Limbaugh crowd likes to say about Bill or even Hillary for that matter, they are moderates. Hillary was a Goldwater Girl for goodness sake. Bill compromised quite a bit with Republicans, he had a Rep Secretary of Defense on and on. They were and are not even close to the Leftists that some think.
Anyways, it's pretty simple folks, the two reasons Bush won the election in 2004 were because enough Americans still supported the war (gasp) and didn't want to "cut and run"=highly effective slogan and the other being that in those swing States (remember Kerry was one big State from victory) the Rep National Party got the Gay Marriage vote on the ballot (Ohio for sure and maybe Florida? I don't remember exactly) and turned out a LOT of self-justified and bigoted Evangelicals.
The Republicans win in 2008 if they can make it an issue of John Wayne vs Jane Fonda all over again. On those culture issues the Reps are in the majority and the Dems can't win certain States without a true moderate.
The General Election (President) is usually a pretty simple race. It just takes a long time to figure out what those simple issues will eventually be.
On Hillary and her negatives, one thing you will never hear from the Bushie crowd:
Look it up, Bush had negatives in the 46-48% range in late October 2004 and won the election.
Depending on the general support of 3rd parties, you obviously don't need 50% of the vote to win the election. You just have to win enough big States. Bush got a little above his approval rating at the time.
It's going to be a tight race anyways. The biggest difference to me is that Obama is CLEARLY in the "get out now" crowd on Iraq and if he's the nominee and things continue to improve= hello John Wayne vs jane Fonda and 4 more years of big business moralizing cowboys.
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