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Old 12-03-2007, 03:12 PM   #31
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U.S. Says Iran Ended Atomic Arms Work

By MARK MAZZETTI
New York Times, December 3


WASHINGTON — A new assessment by American intelligence agencies concludes that Iran halted its nuclear weapons program in 2003 and that the program remains on hold, contradicting an assessment two years ago that Tehran was working inexorably toward building a bomb. The conclusions of the new assessment are likely to be a major factor in the tense international negotiations aimed at getting Iran to halt its nuclear energy program. Concerns about Iran were raised sharply after President Bush had suggested in October that a nuclear-armed Iran could lead to “World War III,” and Vice President Dick Cheney promised “serious consequences” if the government in Tehran did not abandon its nuclear program.

The finding also come in the middle of a presidential campaign during which a possible military strike against Iran’s nuclear program has been discussed. The assessment, a National Intelligence Estimate that represents the consensus view of all 16 American spy agencies, states that Tehran’s ultimate intentions about gaining a nuclear weapon remain unclear, but that Iran’s “decisions are guided by a cost-benefit approach rather than a rush to a weapon irrespective of the political, economic and military costs.” “Some combination of threats of intensified international scrutiny and pressures, along with opportunities for Iran to achieve its security, prestige, and goals for regional influence in other ways might — if perceived by Iran’s leaders as credible — prompt Tehran to extend the current halt to its nuclear weapons program,” the estimate states.

The new report comes out just over five years after a deeply flawed N.I.E. concluded that Iraq possessed chemical and biological weapons programs and was determined to restart its nuclear program. The report led to congressional authorization for a military invasion of Iraq, although most of the N.I.E.’s conclusions turned out to be wrong. The estimate does say that Iran’s ultimate goal is still to develop the capability to produce a nuclear weapon.

The national security adviser, Stephen J. Hadley, quickly issued a statement describing the N.I.E. as containing positive news rather than reflecting intelligence mistakes. “It confirms that we were right to be worried about Iran seeking to develop nuclear weapons,” Mr. Hadley said. “It tells us that we have made progress in trying to ensure that this does not happen. But the intelligence also tells us that the risk of Iran acquiring a nuclear weapon remains a very serious problem...The estimate offers grounds for hope that the problem can be solved diplomatically — without the use of force — as the administration has been trying to do,” Mr. Hadley said.

Last month, Mohamed ElBaradei, director general of the international Atomic Energy Agency, had reported that Iran was operating 3000 uranium-enriching centrifuges, capable of producing fissile material for nuclear weapons. But his report said that I.A.E.A. inspectors in Iran had been unable to determine whether the Iranian program sought only to generate electricity or also to build weapons.

The N.I.E. concludes that if Iran were to end the freeze of its weapons program, it would still be at least two years before Tehran would have enough highly enriched uranium to produce a nuclear bomb. But it says it is still “very unlikely” Iran could produce enough of the material by then. Instead, today’s report concludes it is more likely Iran could have a bomb by the early part to the middle of the next decade. The report states that the State Department’s Bureau of Intelligence and Research judges Iran is unlikely to achieve this goal before 2013, “because of foreseeable technical and programmatic problems.”

The new assessment upends a judgment made about Iran’s nuclear capabilities in 2005. At the time, intelligence agencies assessed with “high confidence” that Iran is determined to have nuclear weapons and concluded that Iran had a secret nuclear weapons program. Since then, officials said they have obtained new information leading them to conclude that international pressure, including tough economic sanctions, had been successful in bringing about a halt to Iran’s secret program. “We felt that we needed to scrub all the assessments and sources to make sure we weren’t misleading ourselves,” said one senior intelligence official during a telephone interview, speaking on condition of anonymity.

In a separate statement accompanying the N.I.E., Deputy Director of National Intelligence Donald M. Kerr said that given the new conclusions, it was important to release the report publicly “to ensure that an accurate presentation is available.”
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Old 12-03-2007, 03:44 PM   #32
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I'm an American and I don't want to go to war with Iran. Yeah, they have a fundamentalist government. Their president is a nut. He says the Holocaust never happened. If we went to war with every jerk on the planet, we'd never stop fighting wars.
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Old 12-03-2007, 06:50 PM   #33
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Quote:
Originally posted by diamond
I don't know guys.


When I hear "Death To Israel" led by Iran's President: Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in front of thousands and thousands of Iranians similar to a Nazi Rally -I get a little concerned.

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Old 12-03-2007, 06:52 PM   #34
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Originally posted by MadelynIris


Unfortunately, I don't think there was much to trust about the Clinton Whitehouse either, and I'm not sure about the next one.

That seems to be the fundamental problem.


If a democrat were to be elected I definitely DO NOT want it to be Hillary, I don't trust her.
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Old 12-04-2007, 06:37 PM   #35
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From The Washington Post.

Quote:
President Bush got the world's attention this fall when he warned that a nuclear-armed Iran might lead to World War III. But his stark warning came at least a month or two after he had first been told about fresh indications that Iran had actually halted its nuclear weapons program.

The new intelligence report released yesterday not only undercut the administration's alarming rhetoric over Iran's nuclear ambitions but could also throttle Bush's effort to ratchet up international sanctions and take off the table the possibility of preemptive military action before the end of his presidency.
Is anyone even mildly surprised anymore?
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Old 12-04-2007, 07:52 PM   #36
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No. Talk about a blow to the administration's fist-pounding and hysteria.

Did they honestly think we'd be stupid enough to fall for this again?

Angela
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Old 12-04-2007, 09:08 PM   #37
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Quote:
Originally posted by Moonlit_Angel


Did they honestly think we'd be stupid enough to fall for this again?
Have you been reading this tread?
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Old 12-04-2007, 09:53 PM   #38
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Quote:
Originally posted by anitram
From The Washington Post.



Is anyone even mildly surprised anymore?


it's so shameless. there's something wonderful about Bush having to stand in front of the camera and stammer with the bullshit smeared all over his pukey face.

everything this administration says should be considered not just false, but in fact the exact opposite of what is true.

how can anyone not be speechless at this news?
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Old 12-04-2007, 09:56 PM   #39
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Quote:
Originally posted by MadelynIris
Some yes or no questions to consider...

Would you consider the Iranian government to be Islamic Fundamentalist?

Would you consider them to have a Jihadist point of view?

Do you think they really would wipe Isreal off the face of the earth as proposed by their President?

Do you think they are developing nuclear weapons?

Do you think we should stop them from developing nuclear weapons?

Is it any of our business?


in light of the fact that the first three questions could apply to half a dozen countries (including Iraq), and in light of the NIE, it's all pretty moot now, yes?
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Old 12-04-2007, 09:59 PM   #40
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Quote:
Originally posted by MadelynIris


Do you think Hilary is equally as crazy as Bush -- I've heard her hard stance against Iran's government. What's with her?


this looks pretty bad for her in light of how she voted on Kyl/Lieberman (i think it was).

Edwards and Obama are going to flay her for it. and rightly so.
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Old 12-04-2007, 10:21 PM   #41
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An attack on Iran is probably off the table now. The administration probably lost every war game scenario, and this provided a way out without too much humiliation. With the US economy and dollar near a precipice, this course of rhetoric and action was probably determined to be too risky to pursue.
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Old 12-04-2007, 10:54 PM   #42
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has anyone been reading the news?

the "World War 3" Bush/Cheney and friends have been hyping has been revealed to be completely and utterly false. like, every bit as false as the WMDs in Iraq. like, every bit in keeping with this administration's fantasy of reality where facts and truth don't matter, what matters is what the administration needs to be true so that it can embark upon the policy they've already determined to be the best course of action, prior to the facts.

and why?

because Bush loves us, that's why.

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Old 12-04-2007, 11:04 PM   #43
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Hilary's stance on war-related things is one big reason I don't plan to vote for her.

Quote:
Originally posted by anitram
Have you been reading this tread?
LOL .

Quote:
Originally posted by Irvine511
how did we let this blithering fool become the leader of the Texas Rangers, let alone the most powerful and successful society in the history of the world.
That is a really, really good question. I'm happy to say I had nothing to do with his success-wasn't old enough to vote in 2000 (but if I had been, I wouldn't have voted for him), and I did not vote for him in 2004. As long as I live, I will never, ever understand how anybody could've supported this man, or the administration as a whole.

Angela
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Old 12-04-2007, 11:08 PM   #44
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Quote:
Originally posted by Irvine511


what an embarrassment. how did we let this blithering fool become the leader of the Texas Rangers, let alone the most powerful and successful society in the history of the world.
I ask myself this everyday. How did a party that once use to pride themselves on less government, a love of capitalism, and being the moral party vote for a man who loves big government, was a failure when it came to business, and obviously lacks any moral bone?
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Old 12-04-2007, 11:13 PM   #45
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and if you look at the news clip, he's still smug -- he's fully convinced that it's better that he be completely misinformed and WRONG, but confident, than be informed and correct and do something less than saber rattle.

it boggles the mind.
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