US Presidential Election XII

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I was hoping you not have to pay attention to the Orange cheeto during the Olympics, but like my cat when I'm not petting him, Trump head butted us. It's despicable what he is doing and the GOP "leadership" remains silent.

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He's got a 6% chance of winning if the election were held today and we've yet to have polls reflective of the events of the last few days (his assassination comments and a wheelbarrow of prominent Republicans and conservative foreign policy experts denouncing his leadership abilities and campaign).

Obama was a 99.9% favorite right before the 2008 election (with most of the remaining .1% being electoral ties), so I really think Trump will be in that ballpark shortly and, presumably, dropping out.
 
Unseen events will determine the race

- The Debates will be one of the great spectacles in Election history

- Terror is sure to rear its ugly head again

- Assange has more dirt to unload


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The debates will be a big spectacle when Trump doesn't show so Stein and Johnson are invited and Clinton uses it as an opportunity to let the American public get to know her better...

What exactly makes Trump the go-to-guy when it comes to terrorism?

Assange can't have much, otherwise he'd have fired it off during the primaries or would have thrown out a bombshell just before the Democratic Convention.
 
Unseen events will determine the race

The race has already been determined. Trump, just this morning, said he sees no reason to change his ways, since that's what got him this far.

And since his ways have lead him into double digit losses in less than two weeks, and since he just can't help but run his mouth when the mood strikes, he will continue to say outlandish things that please his rabid base but alienate everyone else, including principled conservatives.

He's his own worst enemy at this point.
 
If it's a surprise that's big enough to derail Clinton's entire campaign (if not cause her even more damage), then it's something big enough to derail Clinton's entire campaign. Period. It doesn't matter when that information would be released because if it proved Clinton to have done something truly criminal she'd be fucked regardless and would have no shot at winning the election.

By thinking that Assange would release it in October, well, it would either be nothing of great importance or, if it were, he'd be a moron to do it so late in the campaign when everybody has already made their choice (and millions upon millions have already cast their early voting ballots).

I'm not saying that damning evidence of that level doesn't exist, albeit unlikely, but I am confident that the timing of its release won't really matter.
 
Unseen events will determine the race

- The Debates will be one of the great spectacles in Election history

- Terror is sure to rear its ugly head again

- Assange has more dirt to unload


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Don't forget the seizures... Or maybe there's a 13th investigation about Benghazi?

Whatever straws you can grasp onto will be of comfort.


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While I strongly think that Clinton will win, we shouldn't assume that the rest of the race will just be a straightforward path of Clinton maintaining an 8+ point lead over Trump. Some of her lead is still probably a bit of convention bounce that will fade. And some things could happen that shift the race a bit towards Trump, like a debate performance that isn't terrible or a Clinton gaffe. We're not going to get to the point where FiveThirtyEight calls Clinton a 99.9% favorite until right before the election again; that only happened in 2012 because it was right before the election and the polls were consistent with little time for popular mood to shift.

Clinton will most likely win but I don't think it will be with states like Georgia.


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Assange doesn't have shit. He's an attention seeking douche.

He continues to talk about how he has this evidence, these emails.....then why not release them? He sounds like every other Right Wing conspiracy theorist, always something bigger, more damning.

The emails from DNC that were released turned out to be a whole lot of faux outrage. Though it did get a few people to step down. But did nothing to Clinton


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October Surprise.

Trump says he has a big announcement. He sets up a teleconference builds this big stage, millions of red hats show up, salivating at the idea that he's finally going to nail Clinton. The backdrop is this huge replica of a wall, he tricks you all into one final Nazi-esque salute before he begins his speech. Then he announces this whole thing has been one big reality show joke, and laughs at the idea that you all fell for the "and we'll make them pay for it". Video of him with his arm around Clinton pops up on the wall and he announces his endorsement of her.

Then he starts to thank everyone that helped him pull this off and says, "but i have to thank one special person" as he wheels out a Sean Hannity that's tied to a chair. They wheel him out to the center of the stage and Trump grabs Hannity's hair and rips off a mask to reveal that it's actually Satan. Satan then says, "and I would have gotten away with it if it weren't for you pesky kids" as he looks over at Paul Ryan and Rand Paul. At that moment Rubio in confusion turns to Cruz and says "if he's satan then who are you?" Cruz just shrugs his shoulders and says "I told you so". In the meantime Scott Baio and Antonio Sabato Jr are on the side of the stage crying as they just realized the 'Tony Loves Chachi' tv show they were promised was all part of the scam. As a befuddled Ben Carson looks aimlessly into the crowd and mumbles "does this mean I don't have the Secretary of Grain Storage position?"
 
Is this wishful thinking, or prologue to Armagedon? Very imaginative, anyway! Stay tuned.
 
Assange doesn't have shit. He's an attention seeking douche.

He continues to talk about how he has this evidence, these emails.....then why not release them? He sounds like every other Right Wing conspiracy theorist, always something bigger, more damning.

The emails from DNC that were released turned out to be a whole lot of faux outrage. Though it did get a few people to step down. But did nothing to Clinton


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I would hardly call Julian Assange "right wing."
 
I didn't mean to lump him into it.

But his constant talk of horrible news on Clinton, or the next wave of emails will be damning....

It's no different than the far right constantly saying we've got them!!! This is the one!! Benghazi!!!!!, EMAILS!!!....MURDER!!!!
 
Trump says he has a big announcement. He sets up a teleconference builds this big stage, millions of red hats show up, salivating at the idea that he's finally going to nail Clinton. The backdrop is this huge replica of a wall, he tricks you all into one final Nazi-esque salute before he begins his speech. Then he announces this whole thing has been one big reality show joke, and laughs at the idea that you all fell for the "and we'll make them pay for it". Video of him with his arm around Clinton pops up on the wall and he announces his endorsement of her.



Then he starts to thank everyone that helped him pull this off and says, "but i have to thank one special person" as he wheels out a Sean Hannity that's tied to a chair. They wheel him out to the center of the stage and Trump grabs Hannity's hair and rips off a mask to reveal that it's actually Satan. Satan then says, "and I would have gotten away with it if it weren't for you pesky kids" as he looks over at Paul Ryan and Rand Paul. At that moment Rubio in confusion turns to Cruz and says "if he's satan then who are you?" Cruz just shrugs his shoulders and says "I told you so". In the meantime Scott Baio and Antonio Sabato Jr are on the side of the stage crying as they just realized the 'Tony Loves Chachi' tv show they were promised was all part of the scam. As a befuddled Ben Carson looks aimlessly into the crowd and mumbles "does this mean I don't have the Secretary of Grain Storage position?"


let's just end the thread here. :lol:
 
Unseen events will determine the race

- The Debates will be one of the great spectacles in Election history

- Terror is sure to rear its ugly head again

- Assange has more dirt to unload

Again, I just feel sad for you because you seem like a reasonable and smart guy.

But THESE are the hopes you have to hang onto. Women and children dying in a terror attack to frighten the lowest common denominator voters. A douche who's probably a rapist coming up with some personal stuff nobody has been able to unearth even though the Clintons have no privacy left. Just wow.
 
We're not going to get to the point where FiveThirtyEight calls Clinton a 99.9% favorite until right before the election again; that only happened in 2012 because it was right before the election and the polls were consistent with little time for popular mood to shift.

You're referring to 2008. I think Romney had a 10% shot on Election Day in 2012 and he had about a 20% chance for most of the couple of months leading up to it, peaking much higher than that after the first debate. His long shot odds are going to only look better and better in retrospect when the Republican nominee will routinely start out ten points behind after the convention bounce. 2012, for my money, was the last election where Republicans could have conceivably one if the right circumstances were in play.

As it stands, the demographic advantage that the Democrats possess is only going to make the gulf in support wider and wider. I don't care how unpopular a sitting Democratic President can be, you aren't suddenly going to convince young voters, non-whites, etc. to vote for a Republican instead. And that's why the GOP will be kicking themselves that they went an offended the country's new majority constantly throughout the start of the 21st century. The tactics were great in the short term, but terrible for the long game.
 
I didn't mean to lump him into it.

But his constant talk of horrible news on Clinton, or the next wave of emails will be damning....

It's no different than the far right constantly saying we've got them!!! This is the one!! Benghazi!!!!!, EMAILS!!!....MURDER!!!!


How can u ignore Ben Gazi? Never 4get such an honorable man. He died serving our cuntry. Murdered by the spawn of Satan, Hillary Cuntlin.
 
As it stands, the demographic advantage that the Democrats possess is only going to make the gulf in support wider and wider. I don't care how unpopular a sitting Democratic President can be, you aren't suddenly going to convince young voters, non-whites, etc. to vote for a Republican instead. And that's why the GOP will be kicking themselves that they went an offended the country's new majority constantly throughout the start of the 21st century. The tactics were great in the short term, but terrible for the long game.


If the Republican Party does not learn their lesson with Trump they never will and will fade into obscurity.

If they do figure it out, they have a chance to rebuild their platform, but it will take a few elections.

Either way we will not have an R in the WH in a long time.


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....

As it stands, the demographic advantage that the Democrats possess is only going to make the gulf in support wider and wider. I don't care how unpopular a sitting Democratic President can be, you aren't suddenly going to convince young voters, non-whites, etc. to vote for a Republican instead. And that's why the GOP will be kicking themselves that they went an offended the country's new majority constantly throughout the start of the 21st century. The tactics were great in the short term, but terrible for the long game.

Apt point. How are the Republicans going to woo the Hispanic vote? Maybe find someone who can speak Spanish! And the African-Americans, they love the Clintons, don't know why. There is a huge undocumented populist minority who are behind Trump 100%, he speaks for them. What % of the base will vote, and will they claim the swing states? Clinton is depending on the lowly to need her government programs.
 
Apt point. How are the Republicans going to woo the Hispanic vote? Maybe find someone who can speak Spanish! And the African-Americans, they love the Clintons, don't know why.
Not elect racists? That's a great place to start. Speaking Spanish won't get you anywhere. It seems so simple, yet you all can't figure it out it seems. It's your platform, period.

There is a huge undocumented populist minority who are behind Trump 100%, he speaks for them.
What does this mean to you?

and will they claim the swing states?
No
Clinton is depending on the lowly to need her government programs.
:rolleyes: and this is why Republicans won't win the Presidency for a loooong time.
 
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Again, I just feel sad for you because you seem like a reasonable and smart guy.

But THESE are the hopes you have to hang onto. Women and children dying in a terror attack to frighten the lowest common denominator voters. A douche who's probably a rapist coming up with some personal stuff nobody has been able to unearth even though the Clintons have no privacy left. Just wow.
And those things only have to do with the actual result, not reasons for supporting Trump. What's the appeal? I still don't see it.
 
Apt point. How are the Republicans going to woo the Hispanic vote? Maybe find someone who can speak Spanish! And the African-Americans, they love the Clintons, don't know why. There is a huge undocumented populist minority who are behind Trump 100%, he speaks for them. What % of the base will vote, and will they claim the swing states? Clinton is depending on the lowly to need her government programs.

Many people of color vote Democrat because their candidates don't support racist policies.

Currently, I am not a beneficiary of aid. However after watching my mother fight cancer for 2 years, I am eternally thankful Medicare and Social Security exist. I am also thankful that Obamacare forced her employer to improve her health insurance which thankfully covered the hundreds of thousands of dollars of care she needed. So yeah, I won't be voting for a party that wants to cut those things.

I understand why some people are frustrated with politics. I just don't understand how anyone could vote for a man who has called Mexicans rapists, who has no tangible plans, who advocates for torture, who admires dictators, who talks about creating American jobs but outsources his labor, and who insinuates that his opponent should be assassinated.
 
Let's not forget he suggested all Muslim-Americans should be placed on a national registry. That is still probably the most disturbing thing he has said/insinuated IMO.
 
Trump Is In Fourth Place Among Black Voters


Third-Party Candidates Johnson, Stein Largely Unknown

Only 32% of the public actually knows who Jill Stein is, so the 4% she's been getting in nationwide polls would translate to 1-in-8 voters aware of her backing her.

37% are familiar with Johnson, so his 8% in national polling comes out to nearly a quarter of people aware of him giving him his vote. Roughly 20-25% of Americans actually have beliefs that mostly fall under the Libertarian banner, so there's no question that Johnson would balloon to a sizable chunk of the electorate where he to be included in the debates.

It's also funny to see that Nader had a net favorable rating of +20 heading into the 2000 election and a -15 rating the next two times he ran.

On the subject of actually knowing candidates, you wonder if the chunk of the Democratic primary electorate that had no opinion or were unaware of Sanders was large enough to make the difference between how him and Clinton ultimately fared. I would not be surprised at all.
 
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