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Old 07-17-2019, 11:29 AM   #901
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yes, definitely, it's a distraction and a way to try to run against AOC in 2020 by tying her to Nancy Pelosi.

it's strategy, but i don't think it's a good one -- it comes at a cost. every time he goes full racist, more white women in suburbia will decide to stay home or vote Democrat. he's not trying to expand his base, he's trying to excite them so they show up ... but there's an equal and opposite reaction.

i don't want to be overly optimistic, but in a time of what seems like unstoppable economic momentum, an incumbent should sail to reelection. Trump is still more likely to lose than win.

i found this analysis interesting:

With 16 Months to go, Negative Partisanship Predicts the 2020 Presidential Election - Judy Ford Wason Center for Public Policy - Christopher Newport University

key analysis:

Quote:
Barring a shock to the system, Democrats recapture the presidency. The leaking of the Trump campaign’s internal polling has somewhat softened the blow of this forecast, as that polling reaffirms what my model already knew: Trump’s 2016 path to the White House, which was the political equivalent of getting dealt a Royal Flush in poker, is probably not replicable in 2020 with an agitated Democratic electorate. And that is really bad news for Donald Trump because the Blue Wall of the Midwest was then, and is now, the ONLY viable path for Trump to win the White House.

[...]

Trump’s second problem is that along with a turnout surge of Democrats that in many states like Virginia is simply larger than the turnout surges of Republicans because of demographics, he is deeply unpopular among Independents because of all the abnormal, norm-breaking and according to the Mueller Report, even illegal things, he does as president. This has left him with , who largely broke against Republicans in the 2018 midterms as my theory predicted. In a follow-up piece to this forecast, I will show that much of this swing among Independents is actually the product of their own turnout surge, which brought more left-leaning Independents out to the polls by the same negative partisanship mechanisms that moved their partisan counterparts. This is why even the Democrat’s sharp drift to the left as they chase their party’s nomination, following the Republicans down the path of ideological polarization won’t have the impact on the vote choice of Independents Republicans are hoping for in 2018.

At the end of the day, Independents will be asked to weigh what Democrats might do against what Republicans, particularly Trump, are doing; the reverse situation from 2016 when Democrats suffered from the referendum effect among Independents. Even if the Democrat’s nominee is unabashedly liberal, it is not likely Trump can win a referendum among college-educated Independent voters without a dramatic transformation in both tone and style.
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Old 07-17-2019, 11:32 AM   #902
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this analysis also alleviates some of my worries about the drift leftward ... i still think a bulletproof D nominee would be of the more moderate variety, and there absolutely must be a woman and/or minority on the ticket, but the above was nice to read.
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Old 07-17-2019, 01:51 PM   #903
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this analysis also alleviates some of my worries about the drift leftward ... i still think a bulletproof D nominee would be of the more moderate variety, and there absolutely must be a woman and/or minority on the ticket, but the above was nice to read.
Who, in your view, of the candidates with a realistic shot of being the nominee, are of the "more moderate variety"? Does that not only leave us with Biden? Obviously Warren and Sanders are not it. I would say that Kamala Harris and Pete Buttigieg are probably a bit left of moderate (isn't he the only one actually talking about packing the SCOTUS?). But the only other more moderate candidates have no shot at all.
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Old 07-17-2019, 02:09 PM   #904
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Everyone knows that Trump went full Klan just to get the Epstein connection out of the news, right?

And we all know why Trump had a falling out with Epstein 20 years ago, right? I mean, it's fairly obvious if you do the math...
Definitely. I'm also thinking this is a reaction to his failed attempt to get that citizenship question on the 2020 census. He blew that big gift to his base, so he's gotta still prove to them that he's in their corner and fighting against those "scary minorities".

As for 2020 predictions, I'm hesitant to get my hopes up, 'cause, well, 2016 and all. Especially when people are trying to make predictions this far out. But I'm all for any signs that the tide is turning against Trump where I can get them. And I do think that the Democrats have a good shot, regardless of how liberal or moderate they are, so long as they come out and make it clear what they actually stand for. Put that up against Trump's flailing and whining and the choice should be pretty clear to most voters at the end of the day.
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Old 07-17-2019, 02:44 PM   #905
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NBC released some ancient videos from the 90s of Trump and Epstein having a great old time together at Mar-a-Lago. You know, the Epstein that Trump was "never a fan of".
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Old 07-17-2019, 02:57 PM   #906
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https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/...de/1748737001/

Quote:
More than two-thirds of those aware of the controversy, 68%, called Trump's tweets offensive. Among Republicans alone, however, 57% said they agreed with tweets that told the congresswomen to go back to their "original" countries, and a third "strongly" agreed with them.

...

Three-fourths of the women polled called his tweets offensive.
Women will decide this election, one way or another.
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Old 07-17-2019, 04:37 PM   #907
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Who, in your view, of the candidates with a realistic shot of being the nominee, are of the "more moderate variety"? Does that not only leave us with Biden? Obviously Warren and Sanders are not it. I would say that Kamala Harris and Pete Buttigieg are probably a bit left of moderate (isn't he the only one actually talking about packing the SCOTUS?). But the only other more moderate candidates have no shot at all.


it sort of depends on the issue, as some issues are more important than others.

for me, a "medicare for all" stance is, right now, a political loser -- 250m Americans have health insurance that they like a whole lot more than not having it, and the promise of something (maybe?) better is too much of a risk at this particular point in history. we know health care is a big reason why the D's cleaned house in 2018, i see no reason to screw up a big time winning issue with them.

the D's also badly need a coherent immigration policy. one that can't be framed as "open borders" -- especially when you're proposing giving health care to people who cross the line. this isn't so much what i personally believe and more what i believe to be politically smart.

it's an election that is going to be about fear, first and foremost. that's what Trump has and that's what he inspires in people. as i mentioned earlier, i don't think it's going to be enough, but i think lessening his ability to inspire fear on the biggest issues of the moment (health care, immigration) will help the candidate win the middle.

as i've said before, there isn't a left wing "base" in the way that there is a right wing "base." the left wins when it wins the middle, and it will by presenting reasonable solutions to real issues that affect people. most people in the middle are disgusted with Trump and find him personally embarrassing ... BUT they can't be scared into voting for him because someone is going to take away the health care that they feel reasonably good about. we are talking about winning reasonably comfortable suburban voters -- the people who show up on Tuesday.

i also think star power is a big deal. Hillary didn't have that. B. Clinton and Obama had that in spades. it's said that Democrats fall in love, and Republicans fall in line. the personal qualities are what captivates, voting for president is about solidifying one's cultural identity. what kind of person votes for candidate X? that's an important consideration.

if i had to name names, i'd say someone who falls between Biden and Warren, with Harris and Buttigeig seeming to fall in that space at the moment.

but it's early. positions are going to shift and evolve.
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Old 07-17-2019, 04:38 PM   #908
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He blew that big gift to his base, so he's gotta still prove to them that he's in their corner and fighting against those "scary minorities".

he's not getting his wall, either. that's why he's imprisoning children.

other than tax cuts and judges, he has very little to show.
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Old 07-17-2019, 06:39 PM   #909
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if i had to name names, i'd say someone who falls between Biden and Warren, with Harris and Buttigeig seeming to fall in that space at the moment.

but it's early. positions are going to shift and evolve.
For sure.

Buttigieg is DOA except as a VP candidate attached to a P candidate who can carry the minority vote. He literally polls almost zero with AAs, and without AA women, the Dems are done. I think in truth, Harris is his only hope with Warren his second best chance. Biden, if he makes it through the primary absolutely 100% has to pick a woman so he won't carry Buttigieg along with him. Bernie I think is done, but he also can't afford to bring Buttigieg along.
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Old 07-17-2019, 09:17 PM   #910
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I don’t think any of it matters any more. Seeing what this country has become (or always has been, just out in the open again) has left a lot of doubt that the Dems can organize and beat hate/fear

There’s nothing to secure the elections, and like all the previous elections it comes down to a few states.

Doesn’t matter if California has 400% turnout. It’s up to PA, WI, OH, FL

It’s going to take a monster effort that we’ve never seen before
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Old 07-17-2019, 09:20 PM   #911
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It’s only Wisconsin now because it wasn’t Wisconsin until 2016. Sort of like NC and VA before that.

Everything matters right now. Typically though, if Ohio falls, Florida falls, and the repubes win.
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Old 07-18-2019, 04:21 AM   #912
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This fucking monster won by threading a needle inside a needle.

It wasn't the rural vote, the white nationalist vote, or anything like that.

He won with the "both of these candidates are assholes so I'm voting for a change" vote.

With 4 years of seeing what we're seeing from him, if he wins again? We're fucked. It means hatred has once again become acceptable in the mainstream.

I shudder to think about what this man is capable of when he doesn't have to worry about reelection.
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Old 07-18-2019, 04:21 AM   #913
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Everyone knows that Trump went full Klan just to get the Epstein connection out of the news, right?

And we all know why Trump had a falling out with Epstein 20 years ago, right? I mean, it's fairly obvious if you do the math...
The answer to #2, btw, is that Epstein came on to Ivanka.

Best buds don't steal each other's girl.
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Old 07-18-2019, 04:23 AM   #914
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I shudder to think what he’ll do if he doesn’t win re-election. Complain for 4 years about a conspiracy and run in 2024 as a more senile version of his current self.
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Old 07-18-2019, 07:13 AM   #915
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He’ll have his own show or tv network

Hell continue to hold events because it’s the best thing for his ego
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