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Old 07-13-2004, 11:15 PM   #31
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There is no need for a draft when hundreds of thousands of reservist have yet to be called, and the all volunteer military could be doubled in size back to its Cold War strength from the 1980s. Also, current Army restructuring will make better use of current active military manpower.
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Old 07-13-2004, 11:57 PM   #32
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Originally posted by nbcrusader
you got the Draft rumor email?

Nope. Nor did I read rumors on the net. It's unfortunately a logical progression to a never ending and expanding war.

And to those that argue the 'never ending' part... I suppose it could end if one 'side' was no longer able to fight. But at this point we've opened a can of worms, or rather opened it, stripped off the labelling, and then cut the can in half.

There are two options with this 'war on terror':

Destroy or be destroyed. Whether you choose either slowly, or quickly... it really doesn't matter - our 'enemies' aren't going to just set down their weapons and hate and smoke a hookah with the western leaders.

SO... back to that draft.... all we need is one more military front, and our we'll be short of troops needed.

If we fear (or are made to) for our existence, our way of life, then perhaps in the next couple of years people will be more accepting of the draft being revived -- for the sake of survival. <Begin Sarcasm>Perhaps we're being conditioned? Perhaps? Oh No... that would never happen here in the U.S., of course it didn't happen with Iraq, or the war on terror... of course not.</End Sarcasm>

Our dollar bill says ... 'In God We Trust'.

I'm so glad it doesn't say 'In Government We Trust'.
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Old 07-14-2004, 12:01 AM   #33
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Quote:
Originally posted by STING2
There is no need for a draft when hundreds of thousands of reservist have yet to be called, and the all volunteer military could be doubled in size back to its Cold War strength from the 1980s. Also, current Army restructuring will make better use of current active military manpower.
I've read otherwise, including quotes from top military officials, Cheney, and officials from the Select Service System. Our military seems to be only about 1,000,000 strong, with over 60% currently outside of the U.S., which also.. is apparently near stretching the current limits. It seems they are counting on re-activation and re-enlistment (which they say remains 'good'). Don't ask me to quote where I read this stuff from, I've read several hundred articles about this recently. Fortunately, I'm not in the 18-25 range, but it's still of concern to me.
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Old 07-14-2004, 12:27 AM   #34
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Quote:
Originally posted by STING2
There is no need for a draft when hundreds of thousands of reservist have yet to be called, and the all volunteer military could be doubled in size back to its Cold War strength from the 1980s. Also, current Army restructuring will make better use of current active military manpower.
I'd like to know where your source is from because everything I've read and from sources close to me who are re-enlisting at ages close to 55 or older are telling me otherwise. I know a father of 3, who are either in or have already graduated college, who was asked to re-enlist and is now in Bagdhad.
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Old 07-14-2004, 12:45 AM   #35
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Sounds to me another "The Bush Admin Who Cried Wolf" act once again.
And also may be how they may steal the election yet again.
I don't believe anything that comes from
Bush and his goons anymore.
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Old 07-14-2004, 09:21 AM   #36
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wink

http://politicalhumor.about.com/libr.../aa040102a.htm
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Old 07-14-2004, 06:07 PM   #37
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Old 07-14-2004, 07:37 PM   #38
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I think it was nb who correctly stated that this is a contingency plan in case something happened. The government has contingency plans for any imaginable situation regardless of what administration is in power. All this does not mean that Bush is planning on delaying the election for any reason, calling martial law, or declaring himself a dictator. Such ideas are pretty laughable. It seems to me that of there were no emergency plans, there would be people complaining that the government (specifically Bush) was not prepared for such a disaster. In my opinion, it is apparent that Bush is damned if he does and damned if he doesn't. "Bush is creating an atmosphere of fear" say some while others say "He did nothing about the terrorist threat". Such knee jerk reactions expose a lack of knowledge of how government works.
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Old 07-14-2004, 09:02 PM   #39
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Quote:
Originally posted by Ft. Worth Frog
I think it was nb who correctly stated that this is a contingency plan in case something happened. The government has contingency plans for any imaginable situation regardless of what administration is in power. All this does not mean that Bush is planning on delaying the election for any reason, calling martial law, or declaring himself a dictator. Such ideas are pretty laughable. It seems to me that of there were no emergency plans, there would be people complaining that the government (specifically Bush) was not prepared for such a disaster. In my opinion, it is apparent that Bush is damned if he does and damned if he doesn't. "Bush is creating an atmosphere of fear" say some while others say "He did nothing about the terrorist threat". Such knee jerk reactions expose a lack of knowledge of how government works.

Why don't you explain to us then how govt works.... while I explain to you that making assumptions about what people know and don't know truly is a knee jerk reaction that exposes the lack of knowledge.
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Old 07-15-2004, 12:36 AM   #40
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Quote:
Originally posted by Elvis


I've read otherwise, including quotes from top military officials, Cheney, and officials from the Select Service System. Our military seems to be only about 1,000,000 strong, with over 60% currently outside of the U.S., which also.. is apparently near stretching the current limits. It seems they are counting on re-activation and re-enlistment (which they say remains 'good'). Don't ask me to quote where I read this stuff from, I've read several hundred articles about this recently. Fortunately, I'm not in the 18-25 range, but it's still of concern to me.
The current active duty strength of the US Armed Forces is over 1,400,000. Then there are nearly 1,400,000 in the National Guard and Reserves. Combined this is 2,800,000 soldiers, sailers, marines, and airmen.

The current US military strength under "Central Command" which runs all the military operations in Iraq, Kuwait, Afghanistan, the Horn of Africa, and other countries in this region, is 225,000!

Just by comparing the raw numbers of people, the operations in the middle east and Afghanistan at any given time take up less than 10% of the United States total Active and Reserve military.

But, most of the Active Duty and Reserve Personal are not apart of Combat Divisions and Brigades. Most are in supporting positions and jobs. The Military's "restructuing" is attempting to take advantage of this manpower by contracting out many of the support Jobs done in the United States to Civilians, there by freeing up military personal to perform combat jobs. The Army is already planning to expand the number of Active Duty Brigades it has from 33 up to 48 just through this restructering.

That will take some time of course, so its better to look at what units the Military actually has for war right now, rather than the raw numbers of people which is simply the total number of all people regardless if they are in combat units or not. Remember also that Navy and Airforce personal both active and reserve, do not serve in ground combat units.

The Army has a total of 33 Brigades on Active Duty and 42 Brigades in the National Guard and Reserve. A Brigade has roughly 5,000 people. 3 Brigades makes a division. A regiment is roughly equal to a Brigade in size.

The Active Duty Army is organized into 10 divisions and 3 regiments while the National Guard has 8 divisions and 18 individual Brigades.

The Active Duty Marines have 3 MEF's. Each MEF is about Equal to an Army Division or 3 Brigades. The Marine Reserve has 1 MEF.

Since many Army Divisons and Marine MEF's are being broken up with their inividual brigades and regiments often being sent to different area's, I'll simply use brigade totals instead of division totals when I talk about deployments around the world and what remains for deployment in the USA/Western Europe etc.

As I stated before, the Army has 33 Active Duty Brigades and the National Guard 42. The Marine and Marine reserve have the equivalent of 12 Brigades total. This gives the US military active and reserve, a total combat strength of 87 Brigades.

So, where is current US ground combat strength deployed whether in a combat zone or resting in the USA or Western Europe etc.

Iraq

As of July 7, 2004 , there are the equivalent of 18 Brigades on the ground inside Iraq. Thats 21% of all Active and Reserve Military Brigades or the equivalent.

Afghanistan

In Afghanistan there is the equivalent of 4 Brigades.

Bosnia

In Bosnia there is the equivalent of nearly 1 Brigade

Kosovo

In Kosovo there is the equivalent of nearly 1 Brigade

South Korea

There are 3 Army Brigades in South Korea one of which is preparing for a tour of duty in Iraq.

Okinawa

There is one Marine MEF here which is the equilavent of 3 Army Brigades.


Rest of World

There are 57 more Brigades primarily in the United States and Western Europe. Many of them are reserve Brigades that have yet to be called up.

All Active Duty Brigades, Army and Marine Equalivants have been used extensively and many Brigades are going into their second tour of duty in Iraq.

With 30 Brigades deployed in combat zones or hotspots around the world, the US military has 57 Brigades left to rotate into those area's when those Brigades tours of duty end. So far though, not all reserve units have been called up and most of the work being done overseas is still being done by the Active Military which is slightly smaller than the number of total Military reserve Units. This is why many active duty Army Brigades and Marine Equalivents that left Iraq only 10 months ago, are already going back.

While the Military is using thousands of reservist, the majority at any given time are still not on active duty. Of the 18 Brigades currently in Iraq, only 3 are reserve brigades. The next rotation though will increase that level to 5 reserve brigades, but that still means that the Active Duty Military is still doing more than 70% of the combat work in Iraq.

Total number of Active Duty Military Brigades is 41 while the total number of Reserve Military Brigades is 45. Despite the large number of Reserve Military Brigades, the Active Duty military is still tasked with more than 70% of the responsibility in Iraq as well as a similar percentage of the assignments in the other combat area's and potential hotspots of the world to include, Bosnia, Kosovo, Afghanistan, South Korea, Okinawa.




The point above is to show that there are still large numbers of US troops, primarily in the reserves than can be called up for duty. If more troops are needed in a particular area of the world, they can be called up. In addition, troops already deployed can have their deployments extended freeing up troops that were supposed to replace them for other deployments if needed. In World War II, units that deployed, stayed deployed until the war was over.

If the total number of Active Duty Brigades and Reserve Brigades is not enough, the US military has two options available to add additional Brigades that do not involve starting a draft.

#1 "Restructuring" by outsourcing support jobs at home to civilians, more manpower becomes available to create more Brigades. The Army has currently started a restucturing plan which will increase its number of ACTIVE DUTY Brigades from 33 to 48 without adding a single soldier to the military.

#2 If "Restructuring" is not enough, the Army could expand the size of its all volunteer force. The number of active and reserve Army Brigades is half of what it was 15 years ago. The size of the All Volunteer force can be doubled back to that level if needed. The problem is that it would take several years to do that. Although a draft could speed up that process on some levels, it would likely take a similar amount of time do to the training and experience required to put together a combat ready brigade.

#3 In Vietnam and Korea, if the reserves had been mobilized and there was no limit on lengh of tour in country or number of tours in country, both of those wars probably could have been fought without a military draft from a raw technical standpoint. I'm not positive about this, but I believe no new military units were created for either war, and soldiers and marines were simply rotated out of the units as their tour of duty ended or as losses occured and had to be replaced.



If the military needs more troops for another NEW crises outside of Iraq/Afghanistan, it indeed has them. Once again, 30 of 87 Brigades are deployed in the war zones and potential hotspots around the world. While many of the other 57 Brigades may have just recently returned from a deployment or are reserve units that have yet to be called up for duty, they are available if a crises occurs and they are needed. The only problem might be getting them to the new combat zone fast enough with so much of the sea-lift and air-lift capacity supporting current operations and may be unavailable for a certain period of time for new missions.

There are many technical support and special forces units that are indeed stretched to the limit or totally unavailable, but there continues to be a large reserve of general combat units that are doing the vast majority of the work in Afghanistan and Iraq. The Active Duty Force is being heavily used with non-deployed forces in the rotation cycle to return to a deployment within a year. The Reserves are being heavily used, but still are only 25% to 30% of the combat strength in Iraq although their total strength regardless of deployment is slightly greater than the Active Duty Forces.


I have many sources that I could site if given time, but the primary ones used here are the INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTE OF STRATEGIC STUDIES : THE MILITARY BALANCE 1997-1998. The Military Balance is published every year by the London Think Tank IISS and covers every single country in the world summerizing and detailing the size, force structure and equipment holdings of each countries military. While this specific issue of Military Balance is getting a bit dated, it is still roughly accurate since US personal numbers and force structure have not changed since 1998.

Much of the numbers on current deployments came from
www.globalsecurity.org .




To sum up, there is currently no need for a military draft because the size of the total force is still enough for the job at hand. If more troops are needed in Iraq or in a new crises, there are reserve units and non-deployed active duty units that could deploy to those regions if needed.

If the number of combat units were to prove insufficient or to burdensome, restructuring of the current force structure could increase the number of combat units by 50% without adding a single new soldier to the military.

If a 50% increase through restructuring of the military were not enough, it would be possible over a number of years to double the size of the active duty force. Doing both would triple the number of combat units available to the military. But, it is simply inconcievable that the military would need 3 times the Active Military and Reserve Brigades it has on hand today for a grand total of 261 Brigades especially when the current force structure of 87 Brigades can do the job, if necessary.

I do think the army should be expanded either through restructuring or bringing in new volunteers, not because it is an absolute necessity, but because it will help reduce some of the strain on the active duty forces. But there are still plenty of reserve units that can help out in this role as well.
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Old 07-15-2004, 03:06 AM   #41
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I'm so glad it doesn't say 'In Government We Trust'.
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Old 07-15-2004, 03:17 AM   #42
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Old 07-15-2004, 05:11 AM   #43
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Wouldn't the US, or any country really, already have plans in place should there be an event that could disrupt an election? There are many things that could. What if one of the two main candidates were killed (or just died naturally) literally on an election eve? Surely it couldn't go ahead the next day.

Surely during the Cold War they would have had plans for moving an election should the 'worst case scenario' occur on it's eve. Any 'traditional' act of war really.

Things like that.

I think the above are reasons enough for moving an election, but not a terrorist attack. In the case of a major terrorist attack, I think the only area that would need some kind of contigency plan would be the immediate city/region effected.

Alien invasion would be a good one as well.
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Old 07-16-2004, 12:40 AM   #44
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Alien invasion would be a good one as well.

Unless you're talking about 'illegal aliens', I just don't think that's very likely to happen
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