US 2008 Presidential Campaign Discussion Thread - Part 9

[Irvine511]

i'm going to withhold judgment until i see what Hallmark Channel voters have to say.

 

[VintagePunk]

Citing a poll that's a week to a week and a half old, with a fairly large margin of error, when more recent and reputable polls tell a different story? Okay...

 

[Irvine511]

Citing a poll that's a week to a week and a half old, with a fairly large margin of error, when more recent and reputable polls tell a different story? Okay...

in all fairness, it does seem that this election is going to come down to women. and racism.

 

[VintagePunk]

in all fairness, it does seem that this election is going to come down to women. and racism.

I'm just saying, from what I've been seeing, there seems to be a fairly significant shift away from Palin in the past week. Her approval numbers are down, her disapproval numbers are up, and people seem to be coming back down to earth now that the novelty has worn off. I've even read somewhere recently where a pollster made a case that she's now a hindrance to the campaign. I can't recall where that was though, or how reputable the pollster is.

 

[Irvine511]

I'm just saying, from what I've been seeing, there seems to be a fairly significant shift away from Palin in the past week. Her approval numbers are down, her disapproval numbers are up, and people seem to be coming back down to earth now that the novelty has worn off. I've even read somewhere recently where a pollster made a case that she's now a hindrance to the campaign. I can't recall where that was though, or how reputable the pollster is.

i do agree. i think she is wearing off. and the press is getting fed up with her Putin-esque refusals to even hold a press conference.

i'm interested to see how they're going to play her post-debate spin. will it be, "that Joe Biden is such a sexist" or will it be, "that plucky Sarah certainly held her own, speaking in complete sentences that contained facts in them," or maybe, "the fact that she's not an expert or has no interest whatsoever in foreign policy really speaks to the real, working people of this country, and in fact she's not burdened by high falutin' knowledge so she'll make honest, strong decisions without blinking using her gut."

what will it be?

 

[corianderstem]

Who needs complete sentences with facts when you've got a uterus?

 

[2861U2]

in all fairness, it does seem that this election is going to come down to women. and racism.

If Obama loses this election, are you going to blame it on racism?

 

[Irvine511]

If Obama loses this election, are you going to blame it on racism?

we'll have to look at the data and see how the polls measure against the results.

you have heard of the Bradley Effect, yes? it's a real thing, and it seems quite likely that in the states that should be in the bag for a generic, white Democrat (MI, OH, PA), the rust belt states, that white working class voters are having a tough time with Obama. it's never straight racism in anyone's mind, it's rationalized into being something else. but i don't think it's at all unreasonable to suggest that race is a barrier for Obama to overcome. it's not at all an advantage.

i'm also not the least bit surprised that whites in rust belt states are reluctant to vote for a black person.

but an interesting side discussion would be to speculate what would have happened with Hillary -- now that she's on the sidelines and has become something of a national hero to many women, it's easy to romanticize her. but we shouldn't forget that, despite her brand name appeal, there is a large segment of the country that still despises her for no rational reason.

 

[U2Fanatic4ever]

Who needs complete sentences with facts when you've got a uterus?

exactly!!


because when it comes down to it, the only thing that counts is a uterus. cuz that certainly does it for me... all us uteruses gotz to stick together u know.

 

[deep]

I do not think the uterus is the part of the anatomy that has gotten Sarah the white male vote.

 

[Irvine511]

I do not think the uterus is the part of the anatomy that has gotten Sarah the white male vote.

you're right. it's been McCain's bloodthirst and vicarious thrills of empire that really pulls 'em in.

 

[yolland]

I think this election, like the last two before it, will probably be too close to solidly identify any one factor as decisive. Racism will undoubtedly play some role in how the swing vote plays out, so that if it's extremely close, you could argue 'If it hadn't been for that...' The Bradley effect has to do with discrepancies between polling and election results, and right now the polls are very close.

 

[Irvine511]

as always, polls are polls, but this seems worth noting:

Poll: Candidates Locked in Tight Race for Virginia

By Tim Craig and Jon Cohen
Washington Post Staff Writers
Monday, September 22, 2008; 6:19 PM

Sens. Barack Obama and John McCain are locked in an extremely competitive race for Virginia's 13 electoral votes amid widespread public anxiety over the economy and the direction the country is heading, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll.

The new survey reinforces Virginia's status as a crucial swing state that could tip the fall election. And the tight race -- likely voters divide 49 percent for Obama, 46 percent for McCain -- foretells a fierce battle for voters across Virginia over the next six weeks. Should Obama prevail, he would become the first Democrat since 1964 to win the state, and only the second since 1952.

Both candidates have core advantages as they head into the final stretch and try to sway the 19 percent of likely voters who say they are not firmly committed to their choice. Fifty percent of respondents said the economy is the most important issue in their choice of president and Obama holds a 10-point advantage on who would better handle the problem.

McCain counters with similarly large advantages on the questions of who is better able to deal with the war on terror and an "unexpected major crisis." And the Arizona senator has a wide advantage as a prospective commander in chief.

Voter interest in the presidential race is the highest it has been in any statewide election surveyed by The Washington Post -- nearly six in 10 voters are "very closely" tuned in. The poll was conducted Thursday through Sunday -- as President Bush and Congress were negotiating a Wall Street bailout amid great financial uncertainty.

When third-party candidates -- Ralph Nader and Bob Barr -- were included in the questioning, Obama edged to a 5-point lead.

Among Obama's biggest advantages in the poll came on the question of who would do more to shake up Washington. On this measure, a clear majority said Obama would do more, despite McCain's efforts in recent weeks to position himself as the true reformer. McCain suffers from a perception that his administration would continue Bush's policies: More than half of voters think McCain would lead in the same direction as Bush, and McCain loses nearly all of these voters.

"I am looking for a leader who is young, dynamic and wants to try to make the changes we need for all kinds of things from social security to energy to dealing with foreign countries," said Sandra Blanchard, 71, a retired music teacher from Fairfax County who plans to vote for Obama.

But foreign affairs have historically played a big role in the outcome of presidential contests in Virginia, which is home to 800,000 veterans and more than a dozen military installations.

Although voters split over which candidate can best manage the war in Iraq, McCain holds a 10-point lead on handling terrorism or an unexpected major crisis.

"I am an independent and I think Senator Obama is dangerously naive," said James Walker, 63 of Fairfax. "I am old enough to remember Jimmy Carter. . . . We are a superpower. We've got to act decisively or those who oppose us will walk all over us."

McCain also holds a significant advantage among veterans surveyed -- usually a large portion of the Virginia electorate. Among that group, McCain holds a 57 percent to 38 percent advantage.

Nearly three-quarters of voters say McCain would be a good commander in chief and knows enough about foreign affairs to be president. Obama lags far behind on those questions, with about 50 percent of voters saying he would be a good commander in chief question.

Still, Virginians have a high appetite for a new direction: 83 percent of all voters said the country is seriously off on the wrong track, and nearly as many are concerned about the performance of the stock market and the broader economy.

This poll has a slight Democratic advantage in terms of partisan identification from, echoing shifts in national polling data. Adjusting this sample to the slim GOP advantages from previous Virginia elections gives McCain a small boost, but the contest would remain extremely tight.

Powered by near universal backing from African Americans and high levels of support from college-educated white women, Obama also relies more broadly on the coalition of voters who lifted two Virginia Democrats to recent victory, Gov. Timothy M. Kaine in 2005 and Sen. James Webb in 2006.

That includes a geographic split in the state. Overall, 59 percent of Northern Virginia voters support Obama -- very close to the 60 percent number Democratic strategists identify as crucial, and the level Kaine and Webb achieved in their wins. About three in 10 voters live in the area, and the numbers reflect how deeply the region has altered the Commonwealth's political landscape in favor of Democrats.

 

[Dreadsox]

I shudder at the thought of another electoral college victory with a candidate not winning the popular majority. While I believe in the electoral college, I think this scenario would be quite troublesome this time around.

Peace

 

[Vincent Vega]

"the fact that she's not an expert or has no interest whatsoever in foreign policy really speaks to the real, working people of this country, and in fact she's not burdened by high falutin' knowledge so she'll make honest, strong decisions without blinking using her gut."

Does she like beer?

It was after the Schroeder-Merkel debates in Germany that especially CDU politicians said, "At least, she didn't lose too bad in the debate against him, so she was better." Well, it's a pretty low standard when you just have to do ok against someone else to be considered better.

 

[deep]

While I believe in the electoral college, I think this scenario would be quite troublesome this time around.

Peace

I thought I did too,
until I really analyzed it in 2000 and looked at the history and ramifications.

I found all my arguments in favor of it collapsed.

 

[Vincent Vega]

I watched Recount. If that is not enough, I don't know what is.

 

[Lila64]

Bill Clinton is on David Letterman tonight.
John McCain will appear on Wednesday.

 

[U2democrat]

Guess who's going to see Matt Lauer and Al Roker do the Today Show in Williamsburg tomorrow


Hooray for swing state status!

 

[2861U2]

Another Biden gaffe! And it's a two-fer!

Ben Smith's Blog: Biden garbles Depression history - Politico.com

Biden garbles Depression history

Joe Biden's denunciation of his own campaign's ad to Katie Couric got so much attention last night that another odd note in the interview slipped by.

He was speaking about the role of the White House in a financial crisis.

"When the stock market crashed, Franklin Roosevelt got on the television and didn't just talk about the princes of greed," Biden told Couric. "He said, 'Look, here's what happened.'"

As Reason's Jesse Walker footnotes it: "And if you owned an experimental TV set in 1929, you would have seen him. And you would have said to yourself, 'Who is that guy? What happened to President Hoover?'"

 

[U2democrat]

At least he talks to the media and takes something other than fluffball questions

 

[Utoo]

Another Biden gaffe! And it's a two-fer!

Golly! That's HUUUUUUGE!!!! God forbid something bad happens in the world and Joe Biden accidentally says "tv" instead of "radio!"

Man, at least John McCain only messes up with things that don't matter!



Let's create a list! I'll start!

• “Somalia” for “Sudan”: As recounted in a reporter’s pool report from McCain’s Straight Talk Express bus on June 30, the senator said while discussing Darfur, a region of Sudan: "How can we bring pressure on the government of Somalia?"

Senior adviser Mark Salter corrected him: “Sudan.”

• “Germany” for “Russia”: A YouTube clip from last year memorializes McCain referring to Vladimir Putin of Russia — following a trip to Germany — as “President Putin of Germany.”

• This spring, McCain said troops in Iraq were “down to pre-surge levels” when in fact there were 20,000 more troops than when the surge policy began.

• Also this spring, McCain twice appeared to mistake Sunnis and Shiites, two branches of Islam that split violently.

• In Phoenix earlier this summer, McCain referred to Czechoslovakia, which has been divided since Jan. 1, 1993, into the Czech Republic and Slovakia. He also referred to Czechoslovakia during a debate in November and a radio show in April.

• Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) said “Iraq” on Monday (late July) when he apparently meant “Afghanistan”, adding to a string of mixed-up word choices that is giving ammunition to the opposition.


Gosh, those are just from one site! (McCain gaffes pile up; critics pile on - Mike Allen and Jim VandeHei - Politico.com)

If only we could find more! How about here: Master List of McCain Flip-Flops and Gaffes

• "Sen. John McCain said that if he were president, he would fire SEC Chairman Chris Cox for his “betrayal of trust” leading up to this week’s financial market crisis."

Problem is, the Securities and Exchange Commission, which regulates the trading of stocks & bonds, is an independent agency outside the jurisdiction of the White House. While the President "nominates", and the Senate approves, the SEC chairman, the President does not have the power to fire him/her.

• During his interview on ABC's "This Week", McCain referred to the "Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General David Petraeus":
"I believe that, when he [Obama] said that we had to leave Iraq, and we had to be out by last March, and we had to have a date certain, that was in contravention to — and still is — the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General David Petraeus."


• During the Republican Primary Debate hosted by Fox News on October 21, 2007, Senator McCain took a not-so-subtle swipe at the experience of two of his chief opponents: Rudy Giuliani and Mitt Romney:
"I have had a strong and a long relationship on national security, I've been involved in every national crisis that this nation has faced since Beirut, I understand the issues, I understand and appreciate the enormity of the challenge we face from radical Islamic extremism.

I am prepared. I am prepared. I need no on-the-job training.

I wasn't a mayor for a short period of time. I wasn't a governor for a short period of time. For 20-some years, including leading the largest squadron in the United States Navy, I led. I didn't manage for profit, I led for patriotism."

So if Senator McCain is to be taken at his word, being "a mayor or governor for a short period of time" is inadequate training to be President of the United States. Enter Sarah Palin.

• Following Iran’s missile tests, Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) slammed Sen. Barack Obama’s (D-IL) position on the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, declaring, “This is the same organization that I voted to condemn as a terrorist organization when an amendment was on the floor of the United States Senate. Senator Obama refused to vote.” CNN’s Political Ticker notes a flaw with McCain’s attack:
The problem with the critique? McCain also missed that vote on the Kyl-Lieberman amendment on September 26, 2007. Records show that Obama was in New Hampshire and McCain was in New York instead of being in the Senate chamber for the vote in question.

Indeed, McCain — the most absent Senator — has missed more than 60 percent of the votes in the 110th Congress.


•Just for fun:[/B]"Knowingly" or "unknowingly", no one can say for sure, but during a campaign appearance in Sturgis, S.D., Senator McCain proffered his wife as a potential contestant in their "Miss Buffalo Chip" beauty contest, in which many contestants... at their own discretion... often choose to compete in "topless", and in some cases, even "bottomless".




I'm sure we can find a ton from all candidates.

But seriously, let's refrain from jumping at useless gaffes and instead focus on the ones that actually mean something.

 

[Utoo]

btw, Master List of McCain Flip-Flops and Gaffes is quite the interesting site

 

[Irvine511]

But seriously, let's refrain from jumping at useless gaffes and instead focus on the ones that actually mean something.

but if we do that, a black man may win.

please, think of the children. the non-gay ones.

 

[Utoo]

 

[Irvine511]

 

[Lila64]

Guess who's going to see Matt Lauer and Al Roker do the Today Show in Williamsburg tomorrow


Hooray for swing state status!

Very cool!

 

[Strongbow]

But seriously, let's refrain from jumping at useless gaffes and instead focus on the ones that actually mean something.

Naturally, liberals think the only gaffes that mean something are the ones their opponents make.

 

[2861U2]

Naturally, liberals think the only gaffes that mean something are the ones their opponents make.

Exactly.

Utoo, are you saying that if Sarah Palin or John McCain had said "In 1929, FDR went on the tv" that you and others in here wouldn't be all over it?

 

[Irvine511]

conservative George Will has a moment of honesty:

McCain Loses His Head

By George F. Will
Tuesday, September 23, 2008; A21

"The queen had only one way of settling all difficulties, great or small. 'Off with his head!' she said without even looking around."

-- "Alice's Adventures in Wonderland"

Under the pressure of the financial crisis, one presidential candidate is behaving like a flustered rookie playing in a league too high. It is not Barack Obama.

Channeling his inner Queen of Hearts, John McCain furiously, and apparently without even looking around at facts, said Chris Cox, chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission, should be decapitated. This childish reflex provoked the Wall Street Journal to editorialize that "McCain untethered" -- disconnected from knowledge and principle -- had made a "false and deeply unfair" attack on Cox that was "unpresidential" and demonstrated that McCain "doesn't understand what's happening on Wall Street any better than Barack Obama does."

To read the Journal's details about the depths of McCain's shallowness on the subject of Cox's chairmanship, see "McCain's Scapegoat" (Sept. 19). Then consider McCain's characteristic accusation that Cox "has betrayed the public's trust."

Perhaps an old antagonism is involved in McCain's fact-free slander. His most conspicuous economic adviser is Douglas Holtz-Eakin, who previously headed the Congressional Budget Office. There he was an impediment to conservatives, including then-Rep. Cox, who, as chairman of the Republican Policy Committee, persistently tried and generally failed to enlist CBO support for "dynamic scoring" that would estimate the economic growth effects of proposed tax cuts.

In any case, McCain's smear -- that Cox "betrayed the public's trust" -- is a harbinger of a McCain presidency. For McCain, politics is always operatic, pitting people who agree with him against those who are "corrupt" or "betray the public's trust," two categories that seem to be exhaustive -- there are no other people. McCain's Manichaean worldview drove him to his signature legislative achievement, the McCain-Feingold law's restrictions on campaigning. Today, his campaign is creatively finding interstices in laws intended to restrict campaign giving and spending. (For details, see The Post of Sept. 17; and the New York Times of Sept. 19.)

By a Gresham's Law of political discourse, McCain's Queen of Hearts intervention in the opaque financial crisis overshadowed a solid conservative complaint from the Republican Study Committee, chaired by Rep. Jeb Hensarling of Texas. In a letter to Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson and Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, the RSC decried the improvised torrent of bailouts as a "dangerous and unmistakable precedent for the federal government both to be looked to and indeed relied upon to save private sector companies from the consequences of their poor economic decisions." This letter, listing just $650 billion of the perhaps more than $1 trillion in new federal exposures to risk, was sent while McCain's campaign, characteristically substituting vehemence for coherence, was airing an ad warning that Obama favors "massive government, billions in spending increases."

The political left always aims to expand the permeation of economic life by politics. Today, the efficient means to that end is government control of capital. So, is not McCain's party now conducting the most leftist administration in American history? The New Deal never acted so precipitously on such a scale. Treasury Secretary Paulson, asked about conservative complaints that his rescue program amounts to socialism, said, essentially: This is not socialism, this is necessary. That non sequitur might be politically necessary, but remember that government control of capital is government control of capitalism. Does McCain have qualms about this, or only quarrels?

On "60 Minutes" Sunday evening, McCain, saying "this may sound a little unusual," said that he would like to replace Cox with Andrew Cuomo, the Democratic attorney general of New York who is the son of former governor Mario Cuomo. McCain explained that Cuomo has "respect" and "prestige" and could "lend some bipartisanship." Conservatives have been warned.

Conservatives who insist that electing McCain is crucial usually start, and increasingly end, by saying he would make excellent judicial selections. But the more one sees of his impulsive, intensely personal reactions to people and events, the less confidence one has that he would select judges by calm reflection and clear principles, having neither patience nor aptitude for either.

It is arguable that, because of his inexperience, Obama is not ready for the presidency. It is arguable that McCain, because of his boiling moralism and bottomless reservoir of certitudes, is not suited to the presidency. Unreadiness can be corrected, although perhaps at great cost, by experience. Can a dismaying temperament be fixed?