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Old 09-22-2008, 04:56 PM   #121
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i'm going to withhold judgment until i see what Hallmark Channel voters have to say.
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Old 09-22-2008, 05:07 PM   #122
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Citing a poll that's a week to a week and a half old, with a fairly large margin of error, when more recent and reputable polls tell a different story? Okay...
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Old 09-22-2008, 05:11 PM   #123
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Citing a poll that's a week to a week and a half old, with a fairly large margin of error, when more recent and reputable polls tell a different story? Okay...


in all fairness, it does seem that this election is going to come down to women. and racism.
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Old 09-22-2008, 05:19 PM   #124
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in all fairness, it does seem that this election is going to come down to women. and racism.
I'm just saying, from what I've been seeing, there seems to be a fairly significant shift away from Palin in the past week. Her approval numbers are down, her disapproval numbers are up, and people seem to be coming back down to earth now that the novelty has worn off. I've even read somewhere recently where a pollster made a case that she's now a hindrance to the campaign. I can't recall where that was though, or how reputable the pollster is.
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Old 09-22-2008, 05:24 PM   #125
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I'm just saying, from what I've been seeing, there seems to be a fairly significant shift away from Palin in the past week. Her approval numbers are down, her disapproval numbers are up, and people seem to be coming back down to earth now that the novelty has worn off. I've even read somewhere recently where a pollster made a case that she's now a hindrance to the campaign. I can't recall where that was though, or how reputable the pollster is.


i do agree. i think she is wearing off. and the press is getting fed up with her Putin-esque refusals to even hold a press conference.

i'm interested to see how they're going to play her post-debate spin. will it be, "that Joe Biden is such a sexist" or will it be, "that plucky Sarah certainly held her own, speaking in complete sentences that contained facts in them," or maybe, "the fact that she's not an expert or has no interest whatsoever in foreign policy really speaks to the real, working people of this country, and in fact she's not burdened by high falutin' knowledge so she'll make honest, strong decisions without blinking using her gut."

what will it be?
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Old 09-22-2008, 05:39 PM   #126
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Who needs complete sentences with facts when you've got a uterus?
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Old 09-22-2008, 05:42 PM   #127
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in all fairness, it does seem that this election is going to come down to women. and racism.
If Obama loses this election, are you going to blame it on racism?
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Old 09-22-2008, 05:46 PM   #128
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If Obama loses this election, are you going to blame it on racism?


we'll have to look at the data and see how the polls measure against the results.

you have heard of the Bradley Effect, yes? it's a real thing, and it seems quite likely that in the states that should be in the bag for a generic, white Democrat (MI, OH, PA), the rust belt states, that white working class voters are having a tough time with Obama. it's never straight racism in anyone's mind, it's rationalized into being something else. but i don't think it's at all unreasonable to suggest that race is a barrier for Obama to overcome. it's not at all an advantage.

i'm also not the least bit surprised that whites in rust belt states are reluctant to vote for a black person.

but an interesting side discussion would be to speculate what would have happened with Hillary -- now that she's on the sidelines and has become something of a national hero to many women, it's easy to romanticize her. but we shouldn't forget that, despite her brand name appeal, there is a large segment of the country that still despises her for no rational reason.
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Old 09-22-2008, 05:47 PM   #129
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Who needs complete sentences with facts when you've got a uterus?


exactly!!


because when it comes down to it, the only thing that counts is a uterus. cuz that certainly does it for me... all us uteruses gotz to stick together u know.
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Old 09-22-2008, 05:59 PM   #130
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I do not think the uterus is the part of the anatomy that has gotten Sarah the white male vote.
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Old 09-22-2008, 06:00 PM   #131
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I do not think the uterus is the part of the anatomy that has gotten Sarah the white male vote.


you're right. it's been McCain's bloodthirst and vicarious thrills of empire that really pulls 'em in.
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Old 09-22-2008, 06:16 PM   #132
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I think this election, like the last two before it, will probably be too close to solidly identify any one factor as decisive. Racism will undoubtedly play some role in how the swing vote plays out, so that if it's extremely close, you could argue 'If it hadn't been for that...' The Bradley effect has to do with discrepancies between polling and election results, and right now the polls are very close.
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Old 09-22-2008, 06:32 PM   #133
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as always, polls are polls, but this seems worth noting:

Quote:
Poll: Candidates Locked in Tight Race for Virginia

By Tim Craig and Jon Cohen
Washington Post Staff Writers
Monday, September 22, 2008; 6:19 PM

Sens. Barack Obama and John McCain are locked in an extremely competitive race for Virginia's 13 electoral votes amid widespread public anxiety over the economy and the direction the country is heading, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll.

The new survey reinforces Virginia's status as a crucial swing state that could tip the fall election. And the tight race -- likely voters divide 49 percent for Obama, 46 percent for McCain -- foretells a fierce battle for voters across Virginia over the next six weeks. Should Obama prevail, he would become the first Democrat since 1964 to win the state, and only the second since 1952.

Both candidates have core advantages as they head into the final stretch and try to sway the 19 percent of likely voters who say they are not firmly committed to their choice. Fifty percent of respondents said the economy is the most important issue in their choice of president and Obama holds a 10-point advantage on who would better handle the problem.

McCain counters with similarly large advantages on the questions of who is better able to deal with the war on terror and an "unexpected major crisis." And the Arizona senator has a wide advantage as a prospective commander in chief.

Voter interest in the presidential race is the highest it has been in any statewide election surveyed by The Washington Post -- nearly six in 10 voters are "very closely" tuned in. The poll was conducted Thursday through Sunday -- as President Bush and Congress were negotiating a Wall Street bailout amid great financial uncertainty.

When third-party candidates -- Ralph Nader and Bob Barr -- were included in the questioning, Obama edged to a 5-point lead.

Among Obama's biggest advantages in the poll came on the question of who would do more to shake up Washington. On this measure, a clear majority said Obama would do more, despite McCain's efforts in recent weeks to position himself as the true reformer. McCain suffers from a perception that his administration would continue Bush's policies: More than half of voters think McCain would lead in the same direction as Bush, and McCain loses nearly all of these voters.

"I am looking for a leader who is young, dynamic and wants to try to make the changes we need for all kinds of things from social security to energy to dealing with foreign countries," said Sandra Blanchard, 71, a retired music teacher from Fairfax County who plans to vote for Obama.

But foreign affairs have historically played a big role in the outcome of presidential contests in Virginia, which is home to 800,000 veterans and more than a dozen military installations.

Although voters split over which candidate can best manage the war in Iraq, McCain holds a 10-point lead on handling terrorism or an unexpected major crisis.

"I am an independent and I think Senator Obama is dangerously naive," said James Walker, 63 of Fairfax. "I am old enough to remember Jimmy Carter. . . . We are a superpower. We've got to act decisively or those who oppose us will walk all over us."

McCain also holds a significant advantage among veterans surveyed -- usually a large portion of the Virginia electorate. Among that group, McCain holds a 57 percent to 38 percent advantage.

Nearly three-quarters of voters say McCain would be a good commander in chief and knows enough about foreign affairs to be president. Obama lags far behind on those questions, with about 50 percent of voters saying he would be a good commander in chief question.

Still, Virginians have a high appetite for a new direction: 83 percent of all voters said the country is seriously off on the wrong track, and nearly as many are concerned about the performance of the stock market and the broader economy.

This poll has a slight Democratic advantage in terms of partisan identification from, echoing shifts in national polling data. Adjusting this sample to the slim GOP advantages from previous Virginia elections gives McCain a small boost, but the contest would remain extremely tight.

Powered by near universal backing from African Americans and high levels of support from college-educated white women, Obama also relies more broadly on the coalition of voters who lifted two Virginia Democrats to recent victory, Gov. Timothy M. Kaine in 2005 and Sen. James Webb in 2006.

That includes a geographic split in the state. Overall, 59 percent of Northern Virginia voters support Obama -- very close to the 60 percent number Democratic strategists identify as crucial, and the level Kaine and Webb achieved in their wins. About three in 10 voters live in the area, and the numbers reflect how deeply the region has altered the Commonwealth's political landscape in favor of Democrats.
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Old 09-22-2008, 06:39 PM   #134
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I shudder at the thought of another electoral college victory with a candidate not winning the popular majority. While I believe in the electoral college, I think this scenario would be quite troublesome this time around.

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Old 09-22-2008, 06:50 PM   #135
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Quote:
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"the fact that she's not an expert or has no interest whatsoever in foreign policy really speaks to the real, working people of this country, and in fact she's not burdened by high falutin' knowledge so she'll make honest, strong decisions without blinking using her gut."
Does she like beer?

It was after the Schroeder-Merkel debates in Germany that especially CDU politicians said, "At least, she didn't lose too bad in the debate against him, so she was better." Well, it's a pretty low standard when you just have to do ok against someone else to be considered better.
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