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Old 09-20-2008, 10:34 PM   #76
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Originally Posted by deep View Post
if we adjust for White Privilage and "racial misgivings and negative views toward blacks"


the true numbers would be: Obama 60%, McCain 34%
Really? Do any head to head polls of McCain VS. Hillary Clinton or John Edwards show them getting that type of a lead?
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Old 09-21-2008, 12:08 AM   #77
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Really, I don't believe it
but, I know a lot of people do

I think that White Privilege article was poorly written
with quite a bit of flawed reasoning
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Old 09-21-2008, 12:15 AM   #78
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Really, I don't believe it
but, I know a lot of people do

I think that White Privilege article was poorly written
with quite a bit of flawed reasoning

I agree. It was over the top. But there were some elements of truth in it though.
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Old 09-21-2008, 04:01 AM   #79
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FiveThirtyEight.com: Electoral Projections Done Right: Senate Polling Update, 9/20
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Although the Democrats have gained ground in a handful of key races, their chances of picking up a working, 60-seat majority in the 111th Congress have diminished.

The principal states for Democratic gains are in Minnesota, where Al Franken now rates as having a 42% chance to upend Norm Coleman, up from 29% in our last update, and in Oregon, where Jeff Merkley now has a 38% chance of beating Gordon Smith, considerably up from 22%. The Democrats have also picked up a little bit of ground in North Carolina, where the polls tightened significantly as of about a month ago and have remained that way ever since.

The good news for Democrats, however, ends there. Sarah Palin's candidacy has resurrected Ted Stevens' prospects in Alaska, who now has a 25% chance of retaining his seat, up from 12% in the last update. There is no small irony in the fact that Palin, who has branded herself as a reformer, is carrying coattails for one of the most corrupt members of Congress. Nevertheless, having turned our collective gaze toward Alaska politics, I think we can perhaps better understand how Stevens' success in bringing pork to Alaska --though it makes him an object of ridicule elsewhere--is fairly popular with the natives. Democratic challenger Mark Begich remains ahead in all polling and is still the favorite, but with the Obama campaign in the process of pulling its resources out of the state, the situation there is much more tenuous.

Palin--or the renewed enthusiasm among GOP base voters that she is associated with--has also pushed some second- and third-tier races in red states back toward the Republicans. These include Idaho, Kentucky, and Georgia, where Republican leads have expanded, perhaps to the point where the races are out of reach. Nor have the Democrats been able to gain any traction in Maine, where Susan Collins' approval ratings remain sky-high.

The Democrats still retain one fairly clear path to 60 seats, assuming that Joe Lieberman and Bernie Sanders are counted with the majority. (I think, by the way, that there has been too much attention given to the party label that Joe Lieberman will choose to affix himself with. He is likely to stand with the Democrats on cloture votes related to domestic policy, which is why the 60 seat number is salient in the first place). This path would involve flipping Virginia, New Mexico and New Hampshire--all of which remain near locks for the Democrats--along with Colorado, Alaska, Minnesota, Oregon, North Carolina, and Mississippi/B.

It's that Mississippi special election race that has yet to really come together for the Democrats, as Republican Roger Wicker has inched upward in the polling since the summer, when the race was closer to a dead heat. But it remains by far the best opportunity the Democrats have to acquire a 60th seat, a fact which will make some coastal Democrats unhappy, since Ronnie Musgrove would probably be more conservative than several Republican members of Congress.

The Democrats could also try and put another race into play. The Scott Kleeb people insist that Nebraska will tighten as their candidate's name recognition improves, and the Democrats also field a compelling candidate in the form of Andrew Rice in Oklahoma. But time is running fairly short, and either race--as well as something like Kentucky or Texas--will probably require at least one fairly significant gaffe from the Republican opponent. On the flip side, the Republicans have yet to make a good race of Louisiana. New Jersey, where an array of recent polling has Dick Zimmer down in the high single digits, might make for the more interesting sleeper race.
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Old 09-21-2008, 09:54 AM   #80
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I agree. It was over the top. But there were some elements of truth in it though.


that was all it was meant to be.

i do think, however, that if Obama had a pregnant teenage daughter with a thuggish boyfriend, it would be quite a different conversation.
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Old 09-21-2008, 12:18 PM   #81
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What was Barack Obama's response to 10 town hall meetings over the summer with John McCain?


Not the same. The top the ticket gets multiple appearances with each other. The VPs get one---and they're cutting that one off at the knees.

As for the town hall crap, the guy turned down 10 town halls, in which you get to say the same things over and over 10 times, for 3 debates--saying the same things over and over only three times. Moreover, can you imagine how much crap would have to go into planning 10 town halls? Which cities/towns do you have them in---yours, ours, ones that are 2/3 yours, etc.? Who gets tickets--yours, ours, third-party distribution with who knows what kind of bias? Who gets to ask questions? How do you ensure that an event like that, with two distinct parties on stage and in the crowd, doesn't turn into a shouting match between sides? It's a lot easier for one guy to fill a hall with his own supporters and answer some of their questions. And times have changed since it was done decades ago---whatever simplicity and civility were there then are much more difficult to find now.

Most important of all----Why should Obama do this just because McCain wants him to? Why submit yourself to an arena that your opponent has practiced in for years? It's like Obama asking McCain to have a speech-off. Have an applause-o-meter and see which speech the people like best.
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Old 09-21-2008, 12:32 PM   #82
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that was all it was meant to be.

i do think, however, that if Obama had a pregnant teenage daughter with a thuggish boyfriend, it would be quite a different conversation.
Who has this?
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Old 09-21-2008, 12:34 PM   #83
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Obama agreed to the 3 debates, which has been the standard for quite some time. In fact, I do think that Clinton debated Dole maybe only twice.

10 town halls is completely UNPRECEDENTED and McCain wanted to do it because he knew he'd get free publicity which he needs given the fact that everybody thinks he's a boring 200-year-old turd blossom and nobody wants to actually listen to him live, nevermind that he can't compete with respect to fundraising.

Obama does not need to bend over when McCain demands something that's never been done before, that benefits only him and then on top of it say "thank you, can I have some more?"
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Old 09-21-2008, 01:41 PM   #84
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a forward i got today:
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Old 09-21-2008, 02:37 PM   #85
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Who has this?
It's a question of how family situations are caricatured in the public realm and what kinds of staying power certain caricatures have relative to others.
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Old 09-21-2008, 03:08 PM   #86
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I am sorry,
but what you just wrote doesn't really address the issue of any thug-like behavior.

Does this young man have an arrest record?
Has he been charged with some beatings or even accused?

Perhaps some vandalism? School property destruction?

Perhaps some break-ins or robberies?

Some kind of juvenile record surely exist,
for everyone to be giving the thumbs up on this.

I am just wondering why people I consider rational thinkers are agreeing with this characterization.

Have I missed something?
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Old 09-21-2008, 03:15 PM   #87
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White privilege is when you can call yourself a "fuckin' redneck," like Bristol Palin's boyfriend does, and talk about how if anyone messes with you, you'll "kick their fuckin' ass," and talk about how you like to "shoot shit" for fun, and still be viewed as a responsible, all-American boy (and a great son-in-law to be) rather than a thug.
Now where does the author call him a thug?
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Old 09-21-2008, 03:25 PM   #88
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Where did I say anyone called him a thug ?




the author did imply that viewing him as a thug should be considered.

and several posters seemed to agree

( I really don't want to go back to what individual posters have written,
we all know -that just leads to a pissing contest )
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Old 09-21-2008, 03:26 PM   #89
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No, the author implied that if he were black than caricaturing him as a thug would "be considered."
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Old 09-21-2008, 03:30 PM   #90
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No, the author implied that if he were black than caricaturing him as a thug would "be considered."
based on what ?
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