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Old 04-30-2008, 04:31 PM   #781
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These polls are meaningless now anyway. And Rasmussen is a total Republican hack job pollster to boot.

The whole world could change tomorrow, we're too far out to have these polls suggest anything.
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Old 04-30-2008, 04:35 PM   #782
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Originally posted by anitram
These polls are meaningless now anyway. And Rasmussen is a total Republican hack job pollster to boot.

The whole world could change tomorrow, we're too far out to have these polls suggest anything.
right.

but after 8 years of Bush, an unpopular war, gas at $4.00 a gallon, etc., even 6 months months before the election, shouldn't the DEMS be crushing McCain?
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Old 04-30-2008, 04:38 PM   #783
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Originally posted by MaxFisher


right.

but after 8 years of Bush, an unpopular war, gas at $4.00 a gallon, etc., even 6 months months before the election, shouldn't the DEMS be crushing McCain?


nationally, the DEMS are crushing the REPS.

since the presidential race is about individuals, and McCain has had months of smooth sailing while HRC and BHO have been attacking each other, the amazing thing is that McCain isn't ahead by more. and he knows this, and is doing all he can to pull away from the disastrous Bush years.
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Old 04-30-2008, 04:45 PM   #784
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what's most surprising, and what no one is paying attention to, is the fact that it's quite surprising that McCain isn't further ahead given all that's passed between HRC and BHO.
This surprises you, really?

This is what I've anticipated happening all along. There's been a large amount of pearl-clutching and cries of "oh noes, they're (well, let's face it, mostly Hillary's been blamed in these parts) ruining the Democratic party!"

When all is said and done, and this Obama vs. Clinton battle is all but a memory, disillusioned democrats will fall back into line and vote according along party lines again. So will independents who would have leaned toward voting Dem. As will disenchanted republicans who were so turned off by 8 years of Bush that they can't stomach another Rep. administration.

Maybe I'm too old to be idealistic. Maybe I've watched too many election cycles come and go. Whatever the case, I'm almost positive that when the Democratic leader is selected, things will go on as usual, having little or no impact on the general election. Regression to the mean, and all that.
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Old 04-30-2008, 04:59 PM   #785
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Originally posted by Irvine511




nationally, the DEMS are crushing the REPS.

since the presidential race is about individuals, and McCain has had months of smooth sailing while HRC and BHO have been attacking each other, the amazing thing is that McCain isn't ahead by more. and he knows this, and is doing all he can to pull away from the disastrous Bush years.
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Old 04-30-2008, 05:10 PM   #786
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Originally posted by MaxFisher

but after 8 years of Bush, an unpopular war, gas at $4.00 a gallon, etc., even 6 months months before the election, shouldn't the DEMS be crushing McCain?
Don't ask me, I don't even understand how he got re-elected in the first place.
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Old 04-30-2008, 05:19 PM   #787
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This is good, imo. I don't need or want a President I can have a beer with because the likelihood of me having a beer with the POTUS is nil. I want a President who can play the game because unfortunately that's how things get done in Washington. If he doesn't play the game that everyone else is playing, he goes nowhere. The best we can hope for a politician who would like to be above "normal" politicians is to play the game smarter, not dirtier.
I agree wholeheartedly.

It'll be interesting to see how he emerges from these recent scandals, or however they should be phrased. I have a feeling that the tests he's facing now will be nothing compared to what the Republicans will throw at him in the general, should he win the nomination.

I also agree with your earlier speculation that the recent events in the Wright vs Obama controversy may have been staged. I thought the same thing as events unfolded, but kind of laughed at myself, thinking that perhaps I was being a little too much of a conspiracy theorist. I was heartened to come hear and read that the same thought had occurred to others. And like you, I agree that if this whole thing was manufactured, it was a wise move.
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Old 04-30-2008, 06:13 PM   #788
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Originally posted by VintagePunk


When all is said and done, and this Obama vs. Clinton battle is all but a memory, disillusioned democrats will fall back into line and vote according along party lines again. So will independents who would have leaned toward voting Dem. As will disenchanted republicans who were so turned off by 8 years of Bush that they can't stomach another Rep. administration.
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Old 04-30-2008, 09:32 PM   #789
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Originally posted by anitram
These polls are meaningless now anyway. And Rasmussen is a total Republican hack job pollster to boot.

The whole world could change tomorrow, we're too far out to have these polls suggest anything.
Its just a snap shot in time. But there are indications that Obama is going to have trouble in places like Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania etc, while he seems to do better than Hillary further west. Several other polling companies have similar results to Rasmussen, and Rasmussen's national results are very close to what Gallup has, so its far away from being some Republican hack job pollster.

Considering everything that the Democrats supposedly have going for them in terms of where the public currently is on the issues, McCain is doing very well, and I doubt he is going to be crushed in some landslide in November.
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Old 04-30-2008, 10:13 PM   #790
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Originally posted by VintagePunk

It'll be interesting to see how he emerges from these recent scandals, or however they should be phrased. I have a feeling that the tests he's facing now will be nothing compared to what the Republicans will throw at him in the general, should he win the nomination.


not so sure -- i think the Clintons are tougher than the Republicans.
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Old 04-30-2008, 10:35 PM   #791
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Originally posted by Irvine511
[Bi think the Clintons are tougher than the Republicans. [/B]
correct,
who is gonna win in a knife fight?

Clintons are tougher than the Republicans

Republicans are tougher than Obama

Obama is tougher than Alan Keyes

Alan Keyes is tougher than Alicia Keyes



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Old 05-01-2008, 08:33 AM   #792
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WASHINGTON (AP) - A leader of the Democratic Party under Bill Clinton has switched his allegiance to Barack Obama and is encouraging fellow Democrats to "heal the rift in our party" and unite behind the Illinois senator.

Joe Andrew, who was Democratic National Committee chairman from 1999-2001, planned a news conference Thursday in his hometown of Indianapolis to urge other Hoosiers to support Obama in Tuesday's primary, perhaps the most important contest left in the White House race. He also has written a lengthy letter explaining his decision that he plans to send to other superdelegates.

"I am convinced that the primary process has devolved to the point that it's now bad for the Democratic Party," Andrew said in a telephone interview with The Associated Press.

Bill Clinton appointed Andrew chairman of the DNC near the end of his presidency, and Andrew endorsed the former first lady last year on the day she declared her candidacy for the White House.

Andrew said in his letter that he is switching his support because "a vote for Hillary Clinton is a vote to continue this process, and a vote to continue this process is a vote that assists (Republican) John McCain."

"While I was hopeful that a long, contested primary season would invigorate our party, the polls show that the tone and temperature of the race is now hurting us," Andrew wrote. "John McCain, without doing much of anything, is now competitive against both of our remaining candidates. We are doing his work for him and distracting Americans from the issues that really affect all of our lives."

Andrew said the Obama campaign never asked him to switch his support, but he decided to do so after watching Obama's handling of two issues in recent days. He said Obama took the principled stand in opposing a summer gas tax holiday that both Clinton and McCain supported, even though it would have been easier politically to back it. And he said he was impressed with Obama's handling of the controversy surrounding his former pastor, the Rev. Jeremiah Wright.

Wright's outspoken criticisms of the United States have threatened Obama's candidacy. Obama initially refused to denounce his former pastor, but he did so this week after Wright suggested that Obama secretly agrees with him.

"He has shown such mettle under fire," Andrew said in the interview. "The Jeremiah Wright controversy just reconfirmed for me, just as the gas tax controversy confirmed for me, that he is the right candidate for our party."

Andrew's decision puts Obama closer to closing Clinton's superdelegate lead. Clinton had a big advantage among superdelegates, many of whom like Andrews have ties to the Clintons and backed her candidacy early on. But most of the superdelegates taking sides recently have gone for Obama, who has won more state contests.

Obama now trails her by just 19 superdelegates, 244-263. This week, he picked up eight superdelegates while she netted three.

Superdelegates are nearly 800 elected leaders and Democratic Party officials who aren't bound by the outcome of state contests and can cast their ballot for any candidate at the national convention. They are especially valuable in this race since neither Clinton nor Obama can win enough pledged delegates to secure the nomination through state-by-state elections.

Obama now leads in the delegate count overall 1732.5 to 1597.5 for Clinton. A candidate needs 2,025 delegates to win the nomination. About 230 superdelegates remain undecided, and about 60 more will be selected at state party conventions and meetings throughout the spring.

Other party leaders are encouraging superdelegates to pick a side by late June to prevent the fight from going to the national convention in August. Andrews wrote in his letter that he is calling for "fellow superdelegates across the nation to heal the rift in our party and unite behind Barack Obama."

It's the second endorsement for Obama this week that could be influential in Indiana. Rep. Baron Hill, who represents a crucial swing district in the state, endorsed Obama on Wednesday. Clinton has the backing of Indiana Sen. Evan Bayh, who has a vast organization in the state and has been campaigning aggressively with the former first lady.

Obama and Clinton are running close in Indiana and both need a victory there - Obama to help rebound from a loss to Clinton in Pennsylvania and to prove he can win Midwestern voters and Clinton so she can overcome Obama's lead in the race overall.
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Old 05-01-2008, 02:45 PM   #793
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"CLINTON BEATS MCCAIN AMONG INDEPENDENT VOTERS; OBAMA TIES HIM:

The new AP poll has Clinton leading McCain among independents (50-34) while Obama is tied with him (42-42). The NBC/WSJ poll notes that Obama’s negative ratings among independents are they highest they have ever been."
This really has been my impression all along.

In a McCain - Clinton race

independents will evaluate these two in terms of McCain being more like Bush

and Hillary being more like Bill Clinton

The Bill Clinton presidency was/is much more appealing to independents

The W Bush presidency is not appealing to independents




In a McCain - Obama race

McCain can stress that he is not W and all the differences he has had with the Bush Administration and willingness and examples of reaching across the isle

Obama stresses that he will work with members of the opposite party? which only reinforces McCain's credentials

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Old 05-01-2008, 03:00 PM   #794
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Originally posted by Irvine511
not so sure -- i think the Clintons are tougher than the Republicans.
third time's the charm
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Old 05-01-2008, 03:51 PM   #795
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Originally posted by deep


This really has been my impression all along.

In a McCain - Clinton race

independents will evaluate these two in terms of McCain being more like Bush

and Hillary being more like Bill Clinton

The Bill Clinton presidency was/is much more appealing to independents

The W Bush presidency is not appealing to independents




In a McCain - Obama race

McCain can stress that he is not W and all the differences he has had with the Bush Administration and willingness and examples of reaching across the isle

Obama stresses that he will work with members of the opposite party? which only reinforces McCain's credentials



i think you've got it backwards.

all the poll results show that Independents much prefer Obama to Hillary. if this is indeed a race for the middle -- unlike 2000 and 2004, which was a race for the base -- then Obama clearly has an advantage over HRC.
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