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Old 04-17-2008, 11:38 AM   #571
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http://apnews.myway.com/article/20080417/D903LAEO0.html

AP-Yahoo poll shows McCain winning back unhappy Republicans


By Alan Fram and Trevor Tompson

WASHINGTON (AP) - Republicans are no longer underdogs in the race for the White House. To pull that off, John McCain has attracted disgruntled GOP voters, independents and even some moderate Democrats who shunned his party last fall.

Partly thanks to an increasingly likable image, the Republican presidential candidate has pulled even with the two Democrats still brawling for their party's nomination, according to an Associated Press-Yahoo news poll released Thursday. Just five months ago - before either party had winnowed its field - the survey showed people preferred sending an unnamed Democrat over a Republican to the White House by 13 percentage points.

Of those who have moved toward McCain, about two-thirds voted for President Bush in 2004 but are now unhappy with him, including many independents who lean Republican. The remaining one-third usually support Democrats but like McCain anyway.

Also helping the Arizona senator close the gap: Peoples' opinions of Hillary Rodham Clinton have soured slightly, while their views of Barack Obama have improved though less impressively than McCain's.

The survey suggests that those switching to McCain are largely attuned to his personal qualities and McCain may be benefiting as the two Democrats snipe at each other during their prolonged nomination fight.

David Mason of Richmond, Va., is typical of the voters McCain has gained since last November, when the 46-year-old personal trainer was undecided. Mason calls himself an independent and voted in 2004 for President Bush, whom he considers a strong leader but a disappointment due to the "no-win situation" in Iraq.

"It's not that I'm that much in favor of McCain, it's the other two are turning me off," Mason said of Clinton and Obama, the senators from New York and Illinois, in explaining his move toward McCain. As for the Republican's experiences as a Vietnam War prisoner and in the Senate, Mason said, "All he's been through is an asset."

By tracking the same group of roughly 2,000 people throughout the campaign, the AP-Yahoo poll can gauge how individual views are evolving. What's clear is that some Republican-leaning voters who backed Bush in 2004 but lost enthusiasm for him are returning to the GOP fold - along with a smaller but significant number of Democrats who have come to dislike their party's two contenders.

The findings of the survey, conducted by Knowledge Networks, provide a preview of one of this fall's battlegrounds. Though some unhappy Republicans will doubtless stay with McCain, both groups are teeming with centrist swing voters who will be targeted by both parties.

The poll shows that McCain's appeal has grown since November by more than the Democrats' has dwindled. McCain gets about 10 percentage points more now than a generic Republican candidate got last fall; Obama and Clinton get about 5 points less than a nameless Democrat got then.

Underlining McCain's burgeoning popularity, in November about four in 10 considered McCain likeable, decisive, strong and honest while about half do now. Obama is seen as more likeable and stronger now but his numbers for honesty and decisiveness have remained flat, while Clinton's scores for likeability and honesty have dropped slightly.

"You can't trust Hillary and Obama's too young," said Pauline Holsinger, 60, a janitorial worker in Pensacola, Fla., now backing McCain who preferred an unnamed Democrat last fall. "I like him better, he's more knowledgeable about the war" in Iraq.

Voters at this stage in a campaign commonly focus more on candidates' personal qualities. That usually changes as the general election approaches and they pay more attention to issues and partisan loyalty - meaning that McCain's prospects could fade at a time when the public is deeply unhappy with the war, the staggering economy and Bush.

For now, more than one in 10 who weren't backing the unnamed Republican candidate in last November's survey are supporting McCain, a shift partly offset by a smaller number of former undecideds now embracing Obama or Clinton. Of those now backing McCain, about one-third did not support the generic GOP candidate last November.

Among the unhappy Bush supporters whom McCain has lured back to his campaign, about half say they are conservative, yet their views on issues are more moderate than many in the party, with some opposing the war in Iraq. They have favorable but not intensely enthusiastic views of McCain - for example, two-thirds find him likeable while far fewer find him compassionate or refreshing.

"He's known, he's a veteran," said David Tucker, a retired Air Force technician from Alexandria, La., and Bush voter who was undecided last November but has ruled out Obama and Clinton. "I understand him better."

Most of the Democratic-leaning voters now supporting McCain backed Democrat John Kerry in 2004. They are moderates who disapprove of Bush and the war in Iraq, but find McCain likeable, much more so than they did last November.

"He is more open-minded" than Obama and Clinton, said Darlene Heins, 46, a Democrat from North Brunswick, N.J., who has moved from undecided to backing McCain. "He directly answers questions, which tells me he's listening."

Many McCain-backing Democrats express one consistent concern about McCain - his age.

"Let's face it, we're not getting any younger," said retired accountant Sheldon Rothman of Queens, N.Y., who like McCain is 71. "There are too many imponderables when you get to that age, especially with the stress of the presidency."

Whether those now switching to McCain will stay that way once the Democrats choose a candidate is what the fall campaign will be about.

"McCain has a history of doing well with independent voters," said GOP pollster David Winston. He said voters' preference for an unnamed Democratic candidate but McCain's strong performance against Obama and Clinton means "Democrats have an advantage their candidates are not taking advantage of."

Democratic pollster Alan Secrest said the contrasting numbers mean that while the voters' overall mood favors Democrats, they are still taking the measure of Clinton and Obama.

"The Democrats will have to earn their way this fall," he said.

The AP-Yahoo survey of 1,844 adults was conducted from April 2-14 and had an overall margin of sampling error of plus or minus 2.3 percentage points. Included were interviews with 863 Democrats, for whom the margin of sampling error was plus or minus 3.3 points, and 668 Republicans, with a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.8 points.

The poll was conducted over the Internet by Knowledge Networks, which initially contacted people using traditional telephone polling methods and followed with online interviews. People chosen for the study who had no Internet access were given it for free.
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Old 04-17-2008, 11:56 AM   #572
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no question that McCain is having a good run right now.
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Old 04-17-2008, 12:37 PM   #573
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More like a free run. Just wait until the spotlight shines brightly on him come the fall.
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Old 04-17-2008, 01:08 PM   #574
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I’ve been perusing the comments at ABCnews.com and while a majority of the comments are negative, most seem to be written by Obama supporters. They’re mostly akin to disgruntled fans bitching about a call that went against their team the night before.

Obama was asked a few tough questions and he answered them poorly. Blaming ABC looks bad. If Obama followers think last night was rough, the impending GOP evisceration of Obama will make the ABC debate look like a tea party. Even if one thinks the questions were biased, petty, etc., Obama is the candidate who is claiming he will transcend this type of politics. He didn’t last night.

Regarding the uproar with Stephanopoulos moderating…my guess is that the Obama campaign had prior knowledge of it. Why didn’t they make a stink before the debate?

If Hillary wins PA by 8-10% on Tuesday, I think DEM leaders and superdelagates will begin to swing back to her.
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Old 04-17-2008, 01:16 PM   #575
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it wasn't that Stephanopoulos was moderating, it was the manner in which he moderated. it's well documented that he got the bogus William Ayers question from Sean Hannity, and ask yourself, do you really think this question belongs in a debate:

[q]"Does Jeremiah Wright love America as much as you?" [/q]

i wonder, does obama shed one tear when he hears the national anthem, or many tears?

the public needs to know these things.

as for the impending GOP evisceration of Obama ... i agree, the GOP fights dirty and nasty and their attacks have nothing to do with governing the country and it shocks me that people fall for their tactics and allow themselves to be bullied like they were in 2004.

but the Clintons are not to be messed with, as we have seen. she is far, far tougher competition than any of the GOP candidates were.
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Old 04-17-2008, 01:31 PM   #576
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Quote:
Originally posted by Irvine511
it wasn't that Stephanopoulos was moderating, it was the manner in which he moderated.
a lot of the comments I've read are arguing that Stephanopoulos shouldn't have moderated due to his ties to the Clintons.
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Old 04-17-2008, 01:34 PM   #577
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Quote:
Originally posted by MaxFisher


a lot of the comments I've read are arguing that Stephanopoulos shouldn't have moderated due to his ties to the Clintons.


he's had a fairly public falling out with them, but true, he might retain some loyalties, like Paul Begala and James Carville.
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Old 04-17-2008, 01:55 PM   #578
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10 million viewers last night...

http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2...r-penn-debate/

Top Ratings for Penn. Debate
By Brian Stelter

More than 10 million viewers tuned into Wednesday’s Democratic debate on ABC, making it the most-watched debate of the primary election season.
The debate, the first to air on a weeknight on a broadcast network, attracted an average of 10.7 million viewers between 8 and 10 p.m., according to Nielsen Media Research.
Viewership of the debate peaked between 8:30 and 9 p.m. with 11.8 million viewers, topping the “reality” fare of “Deal or No Deal” on NBC and “Big Brother” on CBS. The broadcast faced stiffer competition at 9 p.m. when “American Idol” appeared on Fox and netted 22.7 million viewers. Still, ABC averaged over 10 million viewers in the second hour of the debate.
The presidential candidate debates have repeatedly broken viewership records during the hotly contested primary season. The bar was previously set in January when a Saturday night debate shown on ABC averaged 9.4 million viewers. CNN attracted almost as many viewers (8.3 million) for another Democratic debate in January.
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Old 04-17-2008, 02:06 PM   #579
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I read George Stephenopoulos's book "All Too Human" several years ago...it was fascinating, and based on that alone, he and Hillary don't seem to get along very well, but for people who haven't read the book or aren't as aware about that relationship, it's understandable that people assume that his being there is unfair. However, as per usual, I agree with Irvine that it wasn't the fact the he was moderating, it was how he moderated, which focused on issues of patriotism and lapel pins rather than the economy, iraq, environment, healthcare, etc.
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Old 04-17-2008, 03:36 PM   #580
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HAPPY DANCE HAPPY DANCE!!!



http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1481


Released: April 17, 2008
Newsmax/Zogby Poll: Deadlocked in Pennsylvania!


UTICA, New York—With just five days left before Democratic primary voters go to polls to decide who they want to be their presidential nominee, Hillary Clinton of New York and Barack Obama of Illinois are locked in a battle that is too close to call, the latest Newsmax/Zogby telephone poll shows.


The survey, which was conducted April 15-16, 2008 and came out of the field midway through Wednesday's contentious debate between the two candidates in Philadelphia, shows Clinton at 45% and Obama at 44%, with 12% either wanting someone else or left undecided.


The telephone survey, conducted using live operators working out of Zogby's on-site call center in Upstate New York, included 601 likely Democratic primary voters in Pennsylvania. It carries a margin of error of +/- 4.1 percentage points.

Clinton leads by a wide margin in western Pennsylvania, including Pittsburgh, while Obama leads by a large percentage in eastern Pennsylvania, including Philadelphia. In the central part of the state, including the state capital of Harrisburg, Clinton leads by eight points.

Pennsylvania


Clinton
45%

Obama
44%

Someone else
3%

Not sure
9%


Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding

Pollster John Zogby—"This is not a year for negative campaigning and Clinton's pounding of Obama on his controversial description of small town voters in Pennsylvania does not seem to be working. Obama leads in the Philadelphia and eastern part of the Commonwealth, among African Americans, and Very Liberal Pennsylvanians. He also has a slight lead among voters in union households and has an 18 point margin over those who have lost a job. Clinton maintains her lead among whites, Catholics, Liberals, and Hispanics.

"The gender gap is huge with Obama leading among men by 15 and Clinton leading among women by 15. But Clinton holds a wide advantage on the question of understanding Pennsylvania (58%-27%) and handling the economy of the country (47%-38%). She also is ahead in understanding the personal financial situation of individuals (41%-35%).

"On the other hand, Pennsylvanians by a two to one margin (60% to 29%) are more likely to agree with supporters of Obama that voters in Pennsylvania are bitter about their economic situation than with Clinton and critics of Obama that he is an elitist who does not understand working people.


"On the key questions of who they would rather have a beer with: Clinton 38%, Obama 39%—with 15% undecided.

A key demographic group that has changed its mind in the last week is Democratic voters age 35 to 54, who just one week ago favored Clinton by a 45% to 40% margin. Now, Obama leads among those voters by a 47% to 41% edge. Clinton leads among voters older than age 54, while Obama leads among the younger set.

Among men, Obama holds what has come to be a predictable advantage, leading with 50% support, compared to 35% for Clinton. But Clinton makes up for it among women—also a predictable support group for her—leading by a 53% to 38% margin.

Among the very liberal Democratic Party voters, Obama leads, while Clinton leads among mainline liberals. Among moderates, the two are deadlocked, while Clinton has an edge among conservative Democratic voters.


Among whites and Hispanics, Clinton holds double-digit leads, while Obama holds a huge lead among African Americans, winning 82% support.


Two issues were dominant in the minds of these voters—with the economy far and away the most important to voters in deciding whom to support—54% said it was at the top of their list. The Iraq war was a distant second, with all other issues winning just a passing notice from the likely voters.


Asked which candidate was most likely to improve the respondent's personal financial situation, Clinton won 41%, compared to 35% who said Obama would be tops. Six percent identified someone else, while 19% said they were unsure.


Asked which candidate would be most likely to improve the U.S. economy, Clinton also held an advantage, winning 47% support to 38% who said Obama was most likely. Men favored Obama, while women favored Clinton.

Voters Believe Clinton Understands Pennsylvania Better

The Newsmax/Zogby survey asked likely Democratic primary voters which candidate they believed understands Pennsylvania better, and Clinton was seen to be far more understanding of the state. While 58% said she better understood the Keystone State, just 27% said Obama had a better grip on it. This comes nearly a week after Obama, speaking to an audience in San Francisco, said that Pennsylvanians cling to their religion and to guns out of bitterness over bad economic times. The comment has drawn a significant backlash, and Obama has been explaining his comments ever since.

But the issue has apparently had little impact on the broader head-to-head contest, as Obama has closed the lead Clinton has enjoyed for some time.

The survey also asked specifically about the controversy, asking likely voters whether they agreed with the Obama critics who have said the comments show he is an elitist who does not understand working people and their problems—29% agreed. But 60% said they agreed with Obama supporters who have said he is simply telling the truth about these people who are suffering from the results of economic policies in Washington.

For a detailed methodology statement on this survey, please visit:
http://www.zogby.com/methodology/readmeth.dbm?ID=1294

(4/17/2008)
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Old 04-17-2008, 03:54 PM   #581
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Zogby's been an outlyer in most of the primaries so far and hasn't been very reliable or accurate. I'm waiting until I see the real polls.
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Old 04-17-2008, 04:57 PM   #582
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^^it's a very good indicator though.. IMO.
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Old 04-17-2008, 05:08 PM   #583
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you may recall

I did say Obama can lock it up with a good showing in Penn
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Old 04-17-2008, 06:26 PM   #584
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no one knows anything.
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Old 04-17-2008, 06:38 PM   #585
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I think a lot will happen between now and November

but I also think it is getting easier to see how the Dem nomination will play out

Obama has a decent showing in Penn, wins IN, NC handily,
and many more of the super delegates that are politically motivated (elected officials) will feel safe in going with Obama
his numbers will get better and he will have 250-350 lead over Hillary

her only option would be a full frontal
Nuclear destruction attack on Obama

and Nuclear, we all know is MAD

Mutual Assured Destruction,

Cllintons may do anything to win
self destruction, is not winning.
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