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Old 12-23-2007, 05:48 PM   #331
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This seems about right



Quote:
Early odds in U.S. presidential race

By Albert R. Hunt
Bloomberg News

Sunday, December 23, 2007
The gates are about to open for the American presidential race. The early odds, if history is an indicator, will be close to the mark.

Looking at bookmakers in Las Vegas and London, and the crystal balls of a few seasoned political practitioners from both parties, a clear line has emerged.



The fundamentals - the country's mood, the political cycle, the likely shape of the economy and the movement of certain constituencies like Latinos and young voters - all tilt Democratic.

Thus, lay down 7 to win 5 on a Democrat's taking the presidential oath of office 13 months from now, 2 to 1 that it's a Republican, and 20 to 1 on an independent or third-party candidate.

The odds for the Democrats to win the presidency include:

HILLARY CLINTON: 3 to 1.

BARACK OBAMA: 3.5 to 1.

JOHN EDWARDS: 10 to 1.

Of Senators Christopher Dodd and Joseph Biden and Governor Bill Richardson, - the rest of the field combined has odds of 40 to 1.

The Republican calculations are dicier:

MITT ROMNEY: 5-to-1 odds.

JOHN McCAIN: 8-to-1 odds he faces.

RUDOLPH GIULIANI: 10 to 1.

MIKE HUCKABEE: 12-to-1 shot.

FRED THOMPSON: 20 to 1.

The odds on any other Republican are 25 to 1,


In 8 of the past 10 elections, the party that settled its nomination first won the presidency in November.
http://www.iht.com/bin/printfriendly.php?id=8875160
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Old 12-23-2007, 05:51 PM   #332
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Looks right to me too. It'll be interesting to see what January 3rd brings.
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Old 12-24-2007, 09:44 AM   #333
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Quote:
In 8 of the past 10 elections, the party that settled its nomination first won the presidency in November.
I think this holds the most weight.

dbs
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Old 12-24-2007, 12:43 PM   #334
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But does that include incumbents? Because that would skew the statistic some.
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Old 12-24-2007, 01:30 PM   #335
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Originally posted by U2democrat
But does that include incumbents? Because that would skew the statistic some.
Exactly, that stat doesn't mean shit...
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Old 12-25-2007, 09:24 AM   #336
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Quote:
Originally posted by martha


No. That's good. It'll get him the hell out of here.
Yeah, you want him the hell out of California don't you?
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Old 12-25-2007, 12:18 PM   #337
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Quote:
Originally posted by verte76


Yeah, you want him the hell out of California don't you?
Yes. :Pray:
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Old 12-25-2007, 12:23 PM   #338
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mine, arnold could move in w me and come swiming everyday
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Old 12-25-2007, 12:26 PM   #339
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Sounds like a plan!
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Old 12-25-2007, 10:37 PM   #340
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Oh dear....






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Old 12-27-2007, 08:52 AM   #341
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WASHINGTON — They're the odd couple again: George Bush and Hillary Clinton, the most admired man and woman in America.

Though they stand on opposite sides of a political divide, the Republican president and the Democratic senator from New York are sharing the honor for a sixth straight year, according to a USA Today-Gallup poll.

They didn't win by much. Oprah Winfrey and Clinton's husband, former president Bill, were right behind.

When people were asked to name the man they most admire, 10 percent picked Bush, his lowest figure in the seven years he has been president. Bill Clinton got 8 percent within the poll's margin of sampling error while Nobel Prize winner and former Vice President Al Gore had 6 percent and Illinois Sen. Barack Obama, a presidential hopeful, was chosen by 5 percent.

Whoever is president has won the most-admired title every year since 1981.

Sen. Clinton, hoping to be president-elect by the time of the next poll, was named by 18 percent as the most-admired woman, the 12th time she's been in the top spot. Talk show host Winfrey came in a close second with 16 percent. First lady Laura Bush and actress Angelina Jolie were each selected by 3 percent.

The poll, released Wednesday, asked participants an open-ended question, allowing them to respond with any names that came to mind. The rest of the votes were spread among a wide variety of government figures, movie stars, friends and relatives. Queen Elizabeth II was in the top 10 for a record 41st time.

The poll of 1,011 adults was taken between Dec. 14 and 16 and had a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.
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Old 12-29-2007, 04:54 PM   #342
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The Republicans are becoming unhinged in Iowa.

Quote:
In the last weekend before the Iowa caucuses, the Republican presidential candidates are bloodying the field with a blizzard of negative attacks, showing the strains of a wide-open and unpredictable race.

Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney and Senator John McCain are involved in what amounts to an elaborate pool-hall strategy that relies heavily on bank shots to win as their campaigns struggle for primacy both here and in New Hampshire.

Mr. Huckabee, after stumbling Friday over several statements about Pakistan, unloaded today on Mr. Romney.

“If a person is dishonest in his approach to get the job, do you believe he will be honest in telling you the truth when he does gets the job?” Mr. Huckabee said at a campaign stop in Osceola, Iowa.

And in an assist to Mr. McCain _ Mr. Huckabee would love for Mr. McCain to block Mr. Romney from winning in New Hampshire _ Mr. Huckabee added that he was escalating his attacks on Mr. Romney in part because Mr. Romney had the nerve to disparage Mr. McCain, “an American hero.”

“It is enough to attack me, but now to attack John McCain, it is like Mitt doesn’t have anything to stand on except to stand against, and I am saying enough is enough,” Mr. Huckabee declared.

In a bit of political jujitsu, Mr. Huckabee put out a commercial to that effect, saying of negative campaigning: “enough is enough” even as he slammed Mr. Romney. He also put out a spot highlighting Mr. Romney’s reversal of positions on abortion.

By contrast, the Democratic candidates were engaged in more polite campaigning, as Senators Barack Obama and Hillary Rodham Clinton and former Senator John Edwards fanned out across Iowa with last-minute appeals to turn out supports on caucus night this Thursday."
Read the rest of it here.
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Old 12-29-2007, 05:04 PM   #343
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You know what I would LOVE to see?

A convention, for either party, where it really does come down to who has the most delegates, jockeying, campaigning (at the convention), like the olden days of politics. That would be fun, but I doubt that'd happen in this age of endless campaigns.
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Old 12-29-2007, 06:53 PM   #344
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Quote:
Originally posted by U2democrat
You know what I would LOVE to see?

A convention, for either party, where it really does come down to who has the most delegates, jockeying, campaigning (at the convention), like the olden days of politics. That would be fun, but I doubt that'd happen in this age of endless campaigns.
You could have seen it last year if you followed Canadian politics.
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Old 12-29-2007, 10:03 PM   #345
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Quote:
Originally posted by U2democrat
You know what I would LOVE to see?

A convention, for either party, where it really does come down to who has the most delegates, jockeying, campaigning (at the convention), like the olden days of politics. That would be fun, but I doubt that'd happen in this age of endless campaigns.
The last great convention was JFK in 60.
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