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Old 02-13-2008, 10:42 AM   #586
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Some interesting stats from firstread.msnbc.com (which every political junkie should read)

Quote:
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro
*** The statistical front-runner: No matter how one slices the election results from last night, there's no denying that Obama is the statistical front-runner. He's got a 100-plus pledged delegate lead and even has the lead if you factor in superdelegates. Here's our math: The NBC News election unit hard count stands at 1078 to 969. If you factor in the unallocated pledged delegates, our estimate rises to approximately 1128 to 1009 in Obama's favor (margin of error +/- 5 delegates). Toss in the superdelegates and Obama's lead is 1306 to 1270 (again +/- 5 delegates). What does this mean? For Clinton to overtake Obama for the pledged delegate lead -- which we think is the single most important statistic for the superdelegates to decide their vote -- she'll have to win 55% of the remaining delegates. Assuming next week goes Obama's way in Wisconsin and Hawaii, that percentage rises to 57%. Toss in likely Obama victories in Vermont, Wyoming, Mississippi, Oregon, Montana, and South Dakota, then Clinton's percentage need tops 60% of the remaining delegates available. And this is simply for her to regain the pledged delegate lead…

*** Staying on the statistical front: Check out these cumulative vote totals for primaries and caucuses to date:
States Awarding Delegates
Total Vote %
Obama 9,373,334 50%
Clinton 8,674,779 46%
Others 726,095 4%

With Florida
Total Vote %
Obama 9,942,375 49%
Clinton 9,531,987 46%
Others 984,236 4%

With Florida and Michigan
Total Vote %
Obama 9,942,375 47%
Clinton 9,860,138 47%
Others 1,249,922 6%

*** Follow the leader: So no matter how you slice the total popular vote, Obama is the leader. He's at 50% in states that have awarded delegates; he's at 49% and leads Clinton by 3 points in states where both their names were on the ballot, and his lead is big enough that he leads even when you factor in Michigan where Obama's name wasn't on the ballot. Why does this popular vote total matter? Because it's yet another important talking point when wooing superdelegates. How many supers will be comfortable voting against the candidate who's leading in the pledged delegate count and the total vote count?

*** So now what? This Democratic race has two finish lines. One could be as early as March 4. An Obama victory in either of the big states would probably put the pledged delegate count out of reach for Clinton and would allow Obama to disprove the idea that he either can't win Latinos or blue-collar white Democrats. Should Clinton sweep those big March 4 states, the race goes on to the end and becomes a rhetorical fight over stats and polls. The stats being the ones we've cited above (the pledged delegate count and the national vote totals), as well as the Democratic candidates' standing against John McCain in the national polls. But one other thing to ponder: No one ever writes off a Clinton. How do we know? If Clinton were in the position Obama's in right now, how many folks would be writing Obama's obit?
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Old 02-13-2008, 03:49 PM   #587
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Quote:
"The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone poll shows Clinton leading McCain 43% to 41% in New Hampshire. At the same time, Obama leads McCain 49% to 36%."
Here.
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Old 02-13-2008, 04:13 PM   #588
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Quote:
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Here.

The breakdown of those polling numbers is fascinating too.
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Old 02-14-2008, 08:43 AM   #589
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I'm glad his son made it back safely, don't know if he's going back again

WASHINGTON (CNN) — Republican presidential candidate John McCain, who almost always refuses to speak on the campaign trail about his son serving in the military, got a rousing reception Wednesday when he told a private gathering of House Republican congressman that his son Jimmy — whose Marine unit had been deployed to Iraq — had arrived home from safely.

According to three GOP sources present at the closed meeting of the House Republican Conference, the Arizona senator said that when his son first arrived in the country, he reported seeing IEDs everywhere — but when he recently left, some seven months later, Iraq had become so safe he was handing out soccer balls.

According to the sources present, the congressmen greeted the news with standing ovations.

The Associated Press has reported that a plane carrying 300 Marines, including Jimmy McCain, landed at the Portsmouth, New Hampshire, International Airport on Monday.

The unit had just completed a seven-month tour of duty in Iraq. The younger McCain is a member of Bravo 11, 1st Battalion, 1st Marine Division.
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Old 02-14-2008, 12:52 PM   #590
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I find it interesting that so many polls/pundits say that Sen Clinton does better with blue collar/lower income/less higher education people. I wonder why that is. I know in the town I live in that is more middle class she won, and in the next town over that is very wealthy Sen Obama won. Both are equally predominantly white if that even matters at all, I like to think it doesn't.

Clinton leading Obama in Ohio, Pennsylvania
Poll: New York senator gains edge from 'Blue-collar Americans'
Reuters
updated 11:13 a.m. ET, Thurs., Feb. 14, 2008

WASHINGTON - Democratic presidential hopeful Hillary Clinton has double-digit leads over Barack Obama in Ohio and Pennsylvania, both crucial states in upcoming primaries, according to Quinnipiac University poll released on Thursday.

Clinton, a New York senator, has lost eight straight nominating contests to Illinois Sen. Obama, but leads him 55 percent to 34 percent among likely Democratic primary voters in Ohio, the poll found.

Among Ohio Democrats, women back Clinton, 56 percent to 30 percent for Obama, while men back Clinton 52 percent to 42 percent, the poll found.

White Democrats favor Clinton 64 percent to 28 percent, while Obama leads 64 to 17 percent among black voters, according to the survey.

Blue-collar America

"Ohio is as good a demographic fit for Sen. Clinton as she will find," Peter Brown, an Quinnipiac University Polling Institute official, said in a statement.

"It has blue-collar America with a smaller percentage of both Democrats with college educations and African-American than in many other states where Sen. Obama has carried the day."

Ohio, Rhode Island, Texas and Vermont hold nominating contests on March 4. Pennsylvania voters will select presidential nominees in a primary election on April 22.

The survey found that among likely Democratic primary voters in Pennsylvania, Clinton leads Obama 52 percent to 36 percent.

McCain versus Clinton or Obama
In a general election matchup with Republican front-runner John McCain, Ohio voters give the Arizona senator 44 percent support to 43 percent for Clinton and 40 percent for Obama.

In Pennsylvania, Clinton leads McCain 46 percent to 40 percent in the general election, Obama has 42 percent to McCain's 41 percent, the poll said.

The Quinnipiac University poll was taken February 6 through 12, after the "Super Tuesday" contests in which McCain all but wrapped up the Republican nomination with coast-to-coast primary victories.

The Ohio poll of 1,748 voters has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.3 percent, including 564 Democratic likely voters with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.1 percent.

The Pennsylvania poll of 1,419 voters has a margin of error plus or minus 2.6 percent, including 577 Democratic likely voters, with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.1 percent.
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Old 02-14-2008, 01:41 PM   #591
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Quote:
Originally posted by MrsSpringsteen
I find it interesting that so many polls/pundits say that Sen Clinton does better with blue collar/lower income/less higher education people. I wonder why that is. I know in the town I live in that is more middle class she won, and in the next town over that is very wealthy Sen Obama won. Both are equally predominantly white if that even matters at all, I like to think it doesn't.

.
Latte Liberals are for Obama.
Dunkin Donut Democrats are for Clinton.

Studies have also showed higher educated Democrats prefer Obama.

I am a bit bothered that even after most of the Kennedys have endorsed Obama, and the Kennedys more or less "owning" the polictical machinery in that state, that Mass voters voted for Hillary.

Are Mass Democrats closet racists?

dbs
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Old 02-14-2008, 01:48 PM   #592
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Quote:
Originally posted by diamond

Are Mass Democrats closet racists?
Yeah that must be it, that's why Senator Clinton won. The Kennedys really don't own anything in 2008 (if they ever did), no one tells people there how to vote. Senator Obama got 41 % of the vote, that must have all been from the only non-racist Democrats.
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Old 02-14-2008, 01:51 PM   #593
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It's so funny when Diamond tries...
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Old 02-14-2008, 01:51 PM   #594
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I guess MA elected an African American governor (Democrat) in spite of the racism as well
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Old 02-14-2008, 03:06 PM   #595
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He defeated Mitt Romney's Lieutenant Governor, though!

Mitt
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Old 02-14-2008, 03:09 PM   #596
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Quote:
Originally posted by phillyfan26
He defeated Mitt Romney's Lieutenant Governor, though!

Mitt

I hope he and Bono are ok.
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Old 02-14-2008, 03:12 PM   #597
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Quote:
Originally posted by MrsSpringsteen


Yeah that must be it, that's why Senator Clinton won. The Kennedys really don't own anything in 2008 (if they ever did), no one tells people there how to vote. Senator Obama got 41 % of the vote, that must have all been from the only non-racist Democrats.


The Kennedys are synonymous with Mass.

That said, perhaps the Mass electorate is more of a less educated "Dunkin Donuts Democrat crowd" than the Obama "Starbucks Latte Liberal crowd".

A look at Mass fashion vs NY fashion bespeaks that notion.

dbs
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Old 02-14-2008, 03:17 PM   #598
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Originally posted by U2isthebest
I hope he and Bono are ok.
We are ONE.
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Old 02-14-2008, 03:18 PM   #599
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Quote:
Originally posted by diamond
[B]



The Kennedys are synonymous with Mass.

yes, that's what people who don't live there seem to think.



[q]That said, perhaps the Mass electorate is more of a less educated "Dunkin Donuts Democrat crowd" than the Obama "Starbucks Latte Liberal crowd".[/q]


you can't drive through two rotaries in Mass and nawt bump into a Dunkin' Donuts.



[q]A look at Mass fashion vs NY fashion bespeaks that notion.[/q]


erm, NY went for Hillary as well.
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Old 02-14-2008, 03:20 PM   #600
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Quote:
Originally posted by phillyfan26


We are ONE.
Make love, not war.





Seriously, Bono and Mitt aren't in New York, are they?
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