US 2008 Presidential Campaign/Debate Discussion Thread #6

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let's put aside how you think the remarks will be interpreted, and let's focus on the remarks themselves.

hasn't he just weathered 5 months of not one but two Clintons pointing at him and saying, in so many words, "he's black, he's black, he can't win because he's black, you know what the Republicans will do you know what they'll say you know they used the Willie Horton ad which was loaded with racism to defeat Dukakis and look at how they went after John Kerry with a Swift Boat of LIES in 2004. Obama's black, and they're going to use that against him, and you know, deep down, that this country is somewhat conservative and that most conservatives are racists. so vote for hillary. not because she's white, but because she's not black."

you mean to tell me that none of the Republican 527s are going to use race?

what Obama is doing is shrewd. he's framing the narrative. he's giving you a context through which to view the lies that are coming his way by the Republican right wing attack machine.

you might not like it, but it's, as always, very smart.

and as a Bush apologist, one would think you'd at least appreciate Machiavellian political maneuvers whenever you see them. after all, no one, ever, was lower than Rove. and you had no problem with that. why the problems now?
 
Come on, read the quote again...

Sorry. Still Nothing. I'm just reading that radical Islam is the biggest threat this country faces. If people like you want to read more into that statement and pretend like McCain is trying to terrify people, then I can't help you.
 
you mean to tell me that none of the Republican 527s are going to use race?

Honestly, yes. I don't believe they will.

And when we talk about these 527 groups, let's get real. There are far, far more Democratic/liberal groups than there are Republican/conservative ones. In the 2004 election, the top ten 527 groups that spent the most money were all Democratic ones, as were 17 of the top 20.

In the 2006 elections, 18 of the top 20 fundraising/spending groups were liberal.
 
If people like you want to read more into that statement and pretend like McCain is trying to terrify people, then I can't help you.

"People like you"? What is that supposed to mean? He is trying to terrify people, and that strategy will continue. Even before Sen Clinton dropped out they were using that strategy with Obama, implying that he will be soft on terrorists. What about that infamous Bush quote? Come on.
 
NY Times

June 24, 2008
Muslim Voters Detect a Snub From Obama
By ANDREA ELLIOTT

As Senator Barack Obama courted voters in Iowa last December, Representative Keith Ellison, the country’s first Muslim congressman, stepped forward eagerly to help.

Mr. Ellison believed that Mr. Obama’s message of unity resonated deeply with American Muslims. He volunteered to speak on Mr. Obama’s behalf at a mosque in Cedar Rapids, one of the nation’s oldest Muslim enclaves. But before the rally could take place, aides to Mr. Obama asked Mr. Ellison to cancel the trip because it might stir controversy. Another aide appeared at Mr. Ellison’s Washington office to explain.

“I will never forget the quote,” Mr. Ellison said, leaning forward in his chair as he recalled the aide’s words. “He said, ‘We have a very tightly wrapped message.’ ”

When Mr. Obama began his presidential campaign, Muslim Americans from California to Virginia responded with enthusiasm, seeing him as a long-awaited champion of civil liberties, religious tolerance and diplomacy in foreign affairs. But more than a year later, many say, he has not returned their embrace.

While the senator has visited churches and synagogues, he has yet to appear at a single mosque. Muslim and Arab-American organizations have tried repeatedly to arrange meetings with Mr. Obama, but officials with those groups say their invitations — unlike those of their Jewish and Christian counterparts — have been ignored. Last week, two Muslim women wearing head scarves were barred by campaign volunteers from appearing behind Mr. Obama at a rally in Detroit.

In interviews, Muslim political and civic leaders said they understood that their support for Mr. Obama could be a problem for him at a time when some Americans are deeply suspicious of Muslims. Yet those leaders nonetheless expressed disappointment and even anger at the distance that Mr. Obama has kept from them.

“This is the ‘hope campaign,’ this is the ‘change campaign,’ ” said Mr. Ellison, Democrat of Minnesota. Muslims are frustrated, he added, that “they have not been fully engaged in it.”

Aides to Mr. Obama denied that he had kept his Muslim supporters at arm’s length. They cited statements in which he had spoken inclusively about American Islam and a radio advertisement he recorded for the recent campaign of Representative Andre Carson, Democrat of Indiana, who this spring became the second Muslim elected to Congress.

In May, Mr. Obama also had a brief, private meeting with the leader of a mosque in Dearborn, Mich., home to the country’s largest concentration of Arab-Americans. And this month, a senior campaign aide met with Arab-American leaders in Dearborn, most of whom are Muslim. (Mr. Obama did not campaign in Michigan before the primary in January because of a party dispute over the calendar.)

“Our campaign has made every attempt to bring together Americans of all races, religions and backgrounds to take on our common challenges,” Ben LaBolt, a campaign spokesman, said in an e-mail message.

Mr. LaBolt added that with religious groups, the campaign had largely taken “an interfaith approach, one that may not have reached every group that wishes to participate but has reached many Muslim Americans.”

The strained relationship between Muslims and Mr. Obama reflects one of the central challenges facing the senator: how to maintain a broad electoral appeal without alienating any of the numerous constituencies he needs to win in November.

After the episode in Detroit last week, Mr. Obama telephoned the two Muslim women to apologize. “I take deepest offense to and will continue to fight against discrimination against people of any religious group or background,” he said in a statement.

Such gestures have fallen short in the eyes of many Muslim leaders, who say the Detroit incident and others illustrate a disconnect between Mr. Obama’s message of unity and his campaign strategy.

“The community feels betrayed,” said Safiya Ghori, the government relations director in the Washington office of the Muslim Public Affairs Council.

Even some of Mr. Obama’s strongest Muslim supporters say they are uncomfortable with the forceful denials he has made in response to rumors that he is secretly a Muslim. (Ten percent of registered voters believe the rumor, according to a poll by the Pew Research Center.)

In an interview with “60 Minutes,” Mr. Obama said the rumors were offensive to American Muslims because they played into “fearmongering.” But on a new section of his Web site, he classifies the claim that he is Muslim as a “smear.”

“A lot of us are waiting for him to say that there’s nothing wrong with being a Muslim, by the way,” Mr. Ellison said.

Mr. Ellison, a first-term congressman, remains arguably the senator’s most important Muslim supporter. He has attended Obama rallies in Minnesota and appears on the campaign’s Web site. But Mr. Ellison said he was also forced to cancel plans to campaign for Mr. Obama in North Carolina after an emissary for the senator told him the state was “too conservative.” Mr. Ellison said he blamed Mr. Obama’s aides — not the candidate himself — for his campaign’s standoffishness.

Despite the complications of wooing Muslim voters, Mr. Obama and his Republican rival, Senator John McCain, may find it risky to ignore this constituency. There are sizable Muslim populations in closely fought states like Florida, Michigan, Ohio and Virginia.

In those states and others, American Muslims have experienced a political awakening in the years since Sept. 11, 2001. Before the attacks, Muslim political leadership in the United States was dominated by well-heeled South Asian and Arab immigrants, whose communities account for a majority of the nation’s Muslims. (Another 20 percent are estimated to be African-American.) The number of American Muslims remains in dispute as the Census Bureau does not collect data on religious orientation; most estimates range from 2.35 million to 6 million.

A coalition of immigrant Muslim groups endorsed George W. Bush in his 2000 campaign, only to find themselves ignored by Bush administration officials as their communities were rocked by the carrying out of the USA Patriot Act, the detention and deportation of Muslim immigrants and other security measures after Sept. 11.

As a result, Muslim organizations began mobilizing supporters across the country to register to vote and run for local offices, and political action committees started tracking registered Muslim voters. The character of Muslim political organizations also began to change.

“We moved away from political leadership primarily by doctors, lawyers and elite professionals to real savvy grass-roots operatives,” said Mahdi Bray, executive director of the Muslim American Society Freedom Foundation, a political group in Washington. “We went back to the base.”

In 2006, the Virginia Muslim Political Action Committee arranged for 53 Muslim cabdrivers to skip their shifts at Dulles International Airport in Northern Virginia to transport voters to the polls for the midterm election. Of an estimated 60,000 registered Muslim voters in the state, 86 percent turned out and voted overwhelmingly for Jim Webb, a Democrat running for the Senate who subsequently won the election, according to data collected by the committee.

The committee’s president, Mukit Hossain, said Muslims in Virginia were drawn to Mr. Obama because of his support for civil liberties and his more diplomatic approach to the Middle East. Mr. Hossain and others said his multicultural image also appealed to immigrant voters.

“This is the son of an immigrant; this is someone with a funny name,” said James Zogby, president of the Arab American Institute, who is a Christian who has campaigned for Mr. Obama at mosques and Arab churches. “There is this excitement that if he can win, they can win, too.”

Yet some Muslim and Arab-American political organizers worry that the campaign’s reluctance to reach out to voters in those communities will eventually turn them off. “If they think that they are voting for a campaign that is trying to distance itself from them, my big fear is that Muslims will sit it out,” Mr. Hossain said.

Throughout the primaries, Muslim groups often failed to persuade Mr. Obama’s campaign to at least send a surrogate to speak to voters at their events, said Ms. Ghori, of the Muslim Public Affairs Council.

Before the Virginia primary in February, some of the nation’s leading Muslim organizations nearly canceled an event at a mosque in Sterling because they could not arrange for representatives from any of the major presidential campaigns to attend. At the last minute, they succeeded in wooing surrogates from the Clinton and Obama campaigns by telling each that the other was planning to attend, Mr. Bray said. (No one from the McCain campaign showed up.)

Frustrations with Mr. Obama deepened the day after he claimed the nomination when he told the American Israel Public Affairs Committee that Jerusalem should be the undivided capital of Israel. (Mr. Obama later clarified his statement, saying Jerusalem’s status would need to be negotiated between Israelis and Palestinians.)

Osama Siblani, the editor and publisher of the weekly Arab American News in Dearborn, said Mr. Obama had “pandered” to the Israeli lobby, while neglecting to meet formally with Arab-American and Muslim leaders. “They’re trying to take the votes without the liabilities,” said Mr. Siblani, who is also president of the Arab American Political Action Committee.

Some Muslim supporters of Mr. Obama seem to ricochet between dejection and optimism. Minha Husaini, a public health consultant in her 30s who is working for the Obama campaign in Philadelphia, lights up like a swooning teenager when she talks about his promise for change.

“He gives me hope,” Ms. Husaini said in an interview last month, shortly before she joined the campaign on a fellowship. But she sighed when the conversation turned to his denials of being Muslim, “as if it’s something bad,” she said.

For Ms. Ghori and other Muslims, Mr. Obama’s hands-off approach is not surprising in a political climate they feel is marred by frequent attacks on their faith.

Among the incidents they cite are a statement by Mr. McCain, in a 2007 interview with Beliefnet.com, that he would prefer a Christian president to a Muslim one; a comment by Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton that Mr. Obama was not Muslim “as far as I know”; and a remark by Representative Steve King, Republican of Iowa, to The Associated Press in March that an Obama victory would be celebrated by terrorists, who would see him as a “savior.”

“All you have to say is Barack Hussein Obama,” said Arsalan Iftikhar, a human rights lawyer and contributing editor at Islamica Magazine. “You don’t even have to say ‘Muslim.’ ”

As a consequence, many Muslims have kept their support for Mr. Obama quiet. Any visible show of allegiance could be used by his opponents to incite fear, further the false rumors about his faith and “bin-Laden him,” Mr. Bray said.

“The joke within the national Muslim organizations,” Ms. Ghori said, “is that we should endorse the person we don’t want to win.”
 
Honestly, yes. I don't believe they will.


have you been totally blind to the fact that there's been a concerted effort to pain Barack and Michelle as left-wing black radicals? the "terrorist fist jab"?

but you might be right -- because of how Obama has now shaped the debate, anything they do is going to be understood as racism.

sucks to be politically outmaneuvered, i know.


And when we talk about these 527 groups, let's get real. There are far, far more Democratic/liberal groups than there are Republican/conservative ones. In the 2004 election, the top ten 527 groups that spent the most money were all Democratic ones, as were 17 of the top 20.

In the 2006 elections, 18 of the top 20 fundraising/spending groups were liberal.


and John Kerry was still outspent. it's more than the 527s. who needs them when you have "Swift Boat Veterans for Truth"?

i'm still eagerly awaiting your angry denunciation of their tactics. :hyper:
 
Sorry. Still Nothing. I'm just reading that radical Islam is the biggest threat this country faces. If people like you want to read more into that statement and pretend like McCain is trying to terrify people, then I can't help you.

You don't care at all that the man was asked about the economy and answered like he was Rudy Giuliani? We all know he knows nothing about the economy, but for heaven's sake, at least try and pretend.
 
Sorry. Still Nothing. I'm just reading that radical Islam is the biggest threat this country faces. If people like you want to read more into that statement and pretend like McCain is trying to terrify people, then I can't help you.

"People like me" want an a true economic answer when one is asked about the economy. Not a cop out answer that diverts the attention to this never ending war. If we weren't in Iraq right now McCain would never stand a chance, and he knows it, so he has to bring it up as much as he can. Of course bringing up another attack on US soil is a scare tactic :doh:
 
COLORADO SPRINGS, Colo. (AP) - As Barack Obama broadens his outreach to evangelical voters, one of the movement's biggest names, James Dobson, accuses the likely Democratic presidential nominee of distorting the Bible and pushing a "fruitcake interpretation" of the Constitution.

The criticism, to be aired Tuesday on Dobson's Focus on the Family radio program, comes shortly after an Obama aide suggested a meeting at the organization's headquarters here, said Tom Minnery, senior vice president for government and public policy at Focus on the Family.

The conservative Christian group provided The Associated Press with an advance copy of the pre-taped radio segment, which runs 18 minutes and highlights excerpts of a speech Obama gave in June 2006 to the liberal Christian group Call to Renewal. Obama mentions Dobson in the speech.

"Even if we did have only Christians in our midst, if we expelled every non-Christian from the United States of America, whose Christianity would we teach in the schools?" Obama said. "Would we go with James Dobson's or Al Sharpton's?" referring to the civil rights leader.

Dobson took aim at examples Obama cited in asking which Biblical passages should guide public policy - chapters like Leviticus, which Obama said suggests slavery is OK and eating shellfish is an abomination, or Jesus' Sermon on the Mount, "a passage that is so radical that it's doubtful that our own Defense Department would survive its application."

"Folks haven't been reading their Bibles," Obama said.

Dobson and Minnery accused Obama of wrongly equating Old Testament texts and dietary codes that no longer apply to Jesus' teachings in the New Testament.

"I think he's deliberately distorting the traditional understanding of the Bible to fit his own worldview, his own confused theology," Dobson said.

"... He is dragging biblical understanding through the gutter."

Joshua DuBois, director of religious affairs for Obama's campaign, said in a statement that a full reading of Obama's speech shows he is committed to reaching out to people of faith and standing up for families. "Obama is proud to have the support of millions of Americans of faith and looks forward to working across religious lines to bring our country together," DuBois said.

Dobson reserved some of his harshest criticism for Obama's argument that the religiously motivated must frame debates over issues like abortion not just in their own religion's terms but in arguments accessible to all people.

He said Obama, who supports abortion rights, is trying to govern by the "lowest common denominator of morality," labeling it "a fruitcake interpretation of the Constitution."

"Am I required in a democracy to conform my efforts in the political arena to his bloody notion of what is right with regard to the lives of tiny babies?" Dobson said. "What he's trying to say here is unless everybody agrees, we have no right to fight for what we believe."

The program was paid for by a Focus on the Family affiliate whose donations are taxed, Dobson said, so it's legal for that group to get more involved in politics.

Last week, DuBois, a former Assemblies of God associate minister, called Minnery for what Minnery described as a cordial discussion. He would not go into detail, but said Dubois offered to visit the ministry in August when the Democratic National Convention is in Denver.

A possible Obama visit was not discussed, but Focus is open to one, Minnery said.

McCain also has not met with Dobson. A McCain campaign staffer offered Dobson a meeting with McCain recently in Denver, Minnery said. Dobson declined because he prefers that candidates visit the Focus on the Family campus to learn more about the organization, Minnery said
 
more great news for Obama! Dobson wants to fight over scripture with Obama?

bring. it. on.

here's why: Obama is right and Dobson is wrong. that's incontestable. all Obama is doing is underscoring how a secular Democracy works, and what he's doing is arguing for a world where Dobson can spout off whatever nonsense he wants, even if what Dobson spouts off would, down the logical line, eradicate his own existence. what Obama has just done is validate the inclusion of people of faith -- all faiths as well as non-faiths -- in the public square while kicking the stuffing out of those who'd claim to have exclusive monopoly of the dialog in said public square.

it will take a Christian to kill off the Christianists, and BHO is just the man to do it.
 
i'm still eagerly awaiting your angry denunciation of their tactics. :hyper:

Fine. And I do. I don't remember those ads, but if they were false, then they were false, and shame on them.


And with all this talk about McCain supposedly scaring people, the Democrats do quite a bit of falsely scaring voters themselves. I sure hope you all can concede this.
 
[q]"I think he's deliberately distorting the traditional understanding of the Bible to fit his own worldview, his own confused theology," Dobson said. "... He is dragging biblical understanding through the gutter."[/q]


:lol:

GreasePot.jpg


kettleblacksilver.jpg
 
Fine. And I do. I don't remember those ads, but if they were false, then they were false, and shame on them.


And with all this talk about McCain supposedly scaring people, the Democrats do quite a bit of falsely scaring voters themselves. I sure hope you all can concede this.



i think all politicians use scare tactics to some extent.

the difference is that Democrats scare old people about their social security benefits, whereas Republicans tell you that you'll be killed by terrorists if you vote for the Democrats.

[q]Dick Cheney: We're now at that point where we're making that kind of decision for the next 30 or 40 years, and it's absolutely essential that eight weeks from today, on November 2nd, we make the right choice. Because if we make the wrong choice, then the danger is that we'll get hit again, that we'll be hit in a way that will be devastating from the standpoint of the United States.

Vice President and Mrs. Cheney's Remarks and Q&A at a Town Hall Meeting

[/q]
 
Democrats do it constantly.

Let's take the blinders off momentarily...

Politicians do it constantly.

But the point is, why would anyone want a leader that can't answer the question and will constantly divert the subject to 'if you don't vote for me, you'll get attacked' tactics?
 
But the point is, why would anyone want a leader that can't answer the question and will constantly divert the subject to 'if you don't vote for me, you'll get attacked' tactics?

Uhh... I still don't see where he ever said this, but fair enough. He probably should have responded with gas prices. But come on- does anyone honestly think McCain doesn't acknowledge America's energy crisis? Does any dispute the fact that a terrorist attack would cripple our already damaged economy?
 
Does any dispute the fact that a terrorist attack would cripple our already damaged economy?

:doh: Of course no one disputes that. But I guess it's a good thing all Republicans think alike.

But do you really think that's the gravest long-term threat to our economy? 9-11 wasn't even a long-term threat to our economy. I thought this war was working, according to Republicans this war is working. If that's the case why would an attack on US soil even be a concern?
 
Actually, most people know that this Newsweek poll is far off the mark. The last time someone won by more than 15 percentage points was in 1984 when Reagan won re-election.





[q]Obama holds 12-point lead over McCain, poll finds

A Times/Bloomberg Poll says that in a two-man contest, 49% of respondents favor Barack Obama, while 37% support John McCain. With Ralph Nader and Bob Barr added to the mix, Obama holds 15-point edge.
By Doyle McManus
Los Angeles Times Staff Writer

2:00 PM PDT, June 24, 2008

WASHINGTON -- — Buoyed by enthusiasm among Democrats and public concern over the economy, Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) has captured a sizable lead over Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) at the opening of the general election campaign for president, the Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg Poll has found.

In a two-man race between the major party candidates, registered voters chose Obama over McCain by 49% to 37% in the national poll conducted last weekend.

On a four-man ballot including independent candidate Ralph Nader and Libertarian Bob Barr, voters chose Obama over McCain by an even larger margin, 48% to 33%.

Obama's advantage, bigger in this poll than in most other national surveys, appears to stem in large part from his positions on domestic issues. Both Democrats and independent voters say Obama would do a better job than McCain at handling the nation's economic problems, the public's top concern.

In contrast, many voters give McCain credit as the more experienced candidate and the one best equipped to protect the nation against terrorism -- but they rank those concerns below their worries about the economy.

Moreover, McCain suffers from a pronounced "enthusiasm gap," especially among the conservatives who usually give Republican candidates a reliable base of support. Among voters who describe themselves as conservative, only 58% say they will vote for McCain; 15% say they will vote for Obama, 14% say they will vote for someone else, and 13% say they are undecided.

By contrast, 79% of voters who describe themselves as liberal say they plan to vote for Obama.

Even among voters who say they do plan to vote for McCain, more than half say they are "not enthusiastic" about their chosen candidate; only 45% say they are enthusiastic. By contrast, 81% of Obama voters say they are enthusiastic, and almost half call themselves "very enthusiastic," a level of zeal that only 13% of McCain's supporters display.[/q]




:shrug:



and there was this little nugget:

[q]The survey found public approval of President Bush's job performance at a new low for the Times/Bloomberg Poll: only 23% approved of the job Bush is doing, and 73% disapproved.[/q]
 
obamaseal.jpg

Democratic presidential candidate Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill., speaks during a meeting of Democratic Governors at the Chicago History Museum in Chicago Friday, June 20, 2008. A new seal debuted on Obama's podium Friday, sporting iconography used in the U.S. presidential seal, the blue background, the eagle clutching arrows on left and olive branch on right, but with symbolic differences. Instead of the Latin 'E pluribus unum' (Out of many, one), Obama's says 'Vero possumus', rough Latin for 'Yes, we can.' Instead of 'Seal of the President of the United States', Obama's Web site address is listed. And instead of a shield, Obama's eagle wears his 'O' campaign logo with a rising sun representing hope ahead.

I asked if this was a hoax?

It is really silly, and shows poor judgment.

I might expect this on the cartoon network.



Maybe Obama hired the "Mission Accomplished" team?

seal_4.jpg

Barack Obama appears with personalized presidential seal

BY Michael Saul and Celeste Katz
DAILY NEWS STAFF WRITERS



Barack Obama introduced his own take on the presidential seal on Friday.

Yes, he can. But, really: Oh, no, he didn't!

Barack Obama's presidential campaign raised eyebrows and elicited snickers Friday when it unveiled the Obamamania version of the presidential seal.

At a meeting with Democratic governors in Chicago, Obama sat behind a rostrum with a seal that looked not-so-coincidentally like the official seal of the President of the United States.

Featuring an eagle clutching arrows and an olive branch, the seal contained a Latin phrase for a touch of gravitas that roughly translates to "Yes, We Can."

Asked to explain the new seal, Obama spokeswoman Jen Psaki said, "It's a mix of presidential politics and a call for hope and change."

Snarked John McCain spokesman Tucker Bounds, "I think we can all agree that we need presidential candidates that are serious enough not to play make-believe on the campaign trail."

"It's laughable, ridiculous, preposterous and revealing all at the same time," Bounds said.


Bets are in that the faux presidential seal which Sen. Barack Obama rolled out last week already has secured an early retirement, with the campaign facing more ridicule than the rostrum décor is worth.

"The Audacity of Hype,'' they called it at ABC News, as our friends at the Top of the Ticket note in citing the ribbing that Camp Obama has taken for its "Obama for America'' seal.

They also note Marc Ambinder's intelligence today at Atlantic.com:

"I'm told that Obama recognizes that it was a silly mistake, that the universal reaction at Wacker and Michigan was, 'Boy, was that dumb,' and that they don't think the seal staging will matter to actual voters.''


More bone-headed mistakes?
 
[q]Obama holds 12-point lead over McCain, poll finds

A Times/Bloomberg Poll says that in a two-man contest, 49% of respondents favor Barack Obama, while 37% support John McCain. With Ralph Nader and Bob Barr added to the mix, Obama holds 15-point edge.
By Doyle McManus
Los Angeles Times Staff Writer

2:00 PM PDT, June 24, 2008

WASHINGTON -- — Buoyed by enthusiasm among Democrats and public concern over the economy, Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) has captured a sizable lead over Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) at the opening of the general election campaign for president, the Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg Poll has found.

In a two-man race between the major party candidates, registered voters chose Obama over McCain by 49% to 37% in the national poll conducted last weekend.

On a four-man ballot including independent candidate Ralph Nader and Libertarian Bob Barr, voters chose Obama over McCain by an even larger margin, 48% to 33%.

Obama's advantage, bigger in this poll than in most other national surveys, appears to stem in large part from his positions on domestic issues. Both Democrats and independent voters say Obama would do a better job than McCain at handling the nation's economic problems, the public's top concern.

In contrast, many voters give McCain credit as the more experienced candidate and the one best equipped to protect the nation against terrorism -- but they rank those concerns below their worries about the economy.

Moreover, McCain suffers from a pronounced "enthusiasm gap," especially among the conservatives who usually give Republican candidates a reliable base of support. Among voters who describe themselves as conservative, only 58% say they will vote for McCain; 15% say they will vote for Obama, 14% say they will vote for someone else, and 13% say they are undecided.

By contrast, 79% of voters who describe themselves as liberal say they plan to vote for Obama.

Even among voters who say they do plan to vote for McCain, more than half say they are "not enthusiastic" about their chosen candidate; only 45% say they are enthusiastic. By contrast, 81% of Obama voters say they are enthusiastic, and almost half call themselves "very enthusiastic," a level of zeal that only 13% of McCain's supporters display.[/q]




:shrug:



and there was this little nugget:

[q]The survey found public approval of President Bush's job performance at a new low for the Times/Bloomberg Poll: only 23% approved of the job Bush is doing, and 73% disapproved.[/q]


When looking at polls, you need to go with the polling company that has been doing this thing the longest and was closest in predicting the 2004 election results:

Gallup Daily: Obama Holds Slight Edge, 46% vs. 43%

Unless McCain falls behind 12 to 15 points in their poll, its unlikely to happen on election day. Historically, the polls tighten as you get closer to election day, and the most accurate poll is already essentially a tie when it comes to this race.
 
you still don't know anything. no one knows anything. it's only fools who wish they knew more than they did who are swallowing every sensationalistic storyline about a perceived horse race.

Newsweek had them tied in May. Gallup currently has Obama up 50 to 44.

but what matters, at this stage in the game, is not the national polls, nor even so much the polls in the swing states.

what matters, as U2democrat has accurately pointed out, is the overall feeling towards about the current direction of the country, and that's at it's lowest since the end of the Carter administration. also, 55% now identify as Democrats whereas only 36% identify as Republicans, and you can bet that a large portion of that 55% are young voters. so the future for the GOP is ever darkening. it seems that war, hate, and pandering to the willfully ignorant will only get you so far.

You've already said that McCain is going to be crushed in November. Then again, you said he would never win the Republican nomination and that he was "DONE". While nobody knows whats going to happen on election night, McCain is doing remarkably well, despite many of the factors you list against him. I don't deny that Obama has an advantage, but I don't see anything that indicates a landslide at the moment, and from this point on, things historically get tighter in the polling. Zogby came out with a bunch of statistical polls indicating that Bush would not win in 2004, but he did, by the first majority win in the popular vote since 1988.
 
You've already said that McCain is going to be crushed in November. Then again, you said he would never win the Republican nomination and that he was "DONE". While nobody knows whats going to happen on election night, McCain is doing remarkably well, despite many of the factors you list against him. I don't deny that Obama has an advantage, but I don't see anything that indicates a landslide at the moment, and from this point on, things historically get tighter in the polling. Zogby came out with a bunch of statistical polls indicating that Bush would not win in 2004, but he did, by the first majority win in the popular vote since 1988.



i don't know what you're trying to do with any of this STING, but get the chip off your shoulder. we're all just looking at the numbers, looking at the country, looking at some polls, and making a few educated guesses. it seems you take this thing very, very personally, and as such, you seem to want to turn every thought into a big game of gotcha like a child who can't wait to point out every possible imperfection he sees in his parents -- "see! you told me to clean my room, but then YOU left out a coffee cup!"

grow up. yes, i do think that Obama is going to win, possibly going to win big. but i don't know this. i don't say that i know this. i consistently say that i could be wrong, that there are lots of polls, lots of information, and the fact that it's June.

as always, you are creating pretend arguments and statements, and then responding to them.

everyone thought McCain was dead in 2007. and he was dead in 2007. he was lucky that Giuliani was an incredibly poor candidate. and he was lucky that no one fell for Fake Plastic Romney. McCain's rise from the dead is more remarkable when you look at the fact that McCain was the assumed 2008 nominee going way back to 2002. McCain was *always* supposed to be the Republican nominee, hence his grotesque backing of Bush in 2004 that was supposed to win him the support of the Bush political infrastructure.

i also said, all along, that if i were to vote for a GOP candidate, it would no question be McCain. some of that is due to the fact that the rest of the candidates were national embarrassments, but much of it is due to the fact that McCain has gone to great lengths to distance himself from the White House on important issues such as torture and global warming.

but here's why i think Obama is going to win, and win big. whenever you poll people about the issues, Obama wins -- and often wins big -- in every single category except for "terrorism."

[q]http://www.gallup.com/poll/108331/Obama-Has-Edge-Key-Election-Issues.aspx

Summary

Obama is leading McCain by six points among registered voters in the head-to-head matchup included in the current USA Today/Gallup poll, and there are significantly more Americans at the moment who identify themselves as Democrats than as Republicans. So it may not be surprising that Obama is rated as better able to handle more of the tested issues than is McCain.

Regardless of the cause, the finding that Obama has significant strength on domestic issues is potentially quite meaningful in this year's election, given that gas prices and the economy are the two issues the public is most likely to see as important in choosing between presidential candidates. In fact, further analysis of the poll results shows that less than half of Americans believe McCain would be able to do a good job of handling either gas prices or the economy, while 59% say Obama would be able to do a good job on both of these issues.[/q]


so McCain is going to have no choice but to try to scare people, and i don't see that working again. it is my guess that Obama will win the independents, and McCain has none of the base support that Bush enjoyed in 2000 and 2004. the country despises the president. the country also knows McCain much more than they know Obama. and Obama is the greatest orator since JFK. add this all up, and so long as there are no unforced errors, it really should be all Obama in the fall.

these are what the FACTS say at the moment. they could change. but your sunshine-y posts about McCain's chances aren't rooted in much beyond spin.
 
I believe that Reverend Caldwell is also the man who married Jenna Bush and Henry Hager


(AP)LOS ANGELES — Barack Obama said Tuesday that evangelical leader James Dobson was "making stuff up" when he accused the presumed Democratic presidential nominee of distorting the Bible.

Dobson used his Focus on the Family radio program to highlight excerpts of a speech Obama gave in June 2006 to the liberal Christian group Call to Renewal.

Speaking to reporters on his campaign plane before landing in Los Angeles, Obama said the speech made the argument that people of faith, like himself, "try to translate some of our concerns in a universal language so that we can have an open and vigorous debate rather than having religion divide us."

Obama added, "I think you'll see that he was just making stuff up, maybe for his own purposes."

In his program, Dobson focused on examples Obama cited in asking which Biblical passages should guide public policy. For instance, Obama said Leviticus suggests slavery is OK and eating shellfish is an abomination. Obama also cited Jesus' Sermon on the Mount, "a passage that is so radical that it's doubtful that our own Defense Department would survive its application."

"Folks haven't been reading their Bibles," Obama said in the speech.

"I think he's deliberately distorting the traditional understanding of the Bible to fit his own worldview, his own confused theology," Dobson said.

Asked about Dobson's assessment, Obama said "somebody would be pretty hard-pressed to make that argument" that he was distorting the Bible.

Obama supporters also responded to Dobson.

The Rev. Kirbyjon Caldwell, a Methodist pastor from Texas and longtime supporter of President Bush who has endorsed Obama, said Tuesday he belongs to a group of religious leaders who, working independently of Obama's campaign, launched a Web site to counter Dobson at . The site highlights statements from Obama and Dobson and asks visitors to compare them.

James Dobson Doesn't Speak For Me

Caldwell said he has great respect for Dobson's advocacy for families, but said the criticism of Obama was "a bit over the top" and "crossed the line."

"There has been a call for a higher level of politics and politicking," Caldwell said. "So to attack at this level is inappropriate and I think unacceptable and we at least want to hold everybody accountable."

Tom Minnery, a senior vice president at Focus on the Family, responded: "Without question, Dr. Dobson is speaking for millions of evangelicals because his understanding of the Bible is thoroughly evangelical."

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