US 2008 Presidential Campaign/Debate Discussion Thread #6

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Democratic presidential candidate Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill., speaks during a meeting of Democratic Governors at the Chicago History Museum in Chicago Friday, June 20, 2008. A new seal debuted on Obama's podium Friday, sporting iconography used in the U.S. presidential seal, the blue background, the eagle clutching arrows on left and olive branch on right, but with symbolic differences. Instead of the Latin 'E pluribus unum' (Out of many, one), Obama's says 'Vero possumus', rough Latin for 'Yes, we can.' Instead of 'Seal of the President of the United States', Obama's Web site address is listed. And instead of a shield, Obama's eagle wears his 'O' campaign logo with a rising sun representing hope ahead.
(AP Photo/Alex Brandon)

I hope this is a bogus internet hoax.
 
McCain Matches Obama in May Fundraising; Clinton in Debt - America’s Election HQ


WASHINGTON — Democrat Barack Obama raised $22 million in May for his presidential campaign, his weakest fundraising month this year, and ended the month with $43 million cash on hand, while former rival Hillary Rodham Clinton sank deeper in debt.

Obama, who has been the fundraising leader throughout the presidential contest, entered June on virtually the same financial footing as Republican rival John McCain — a level of parity that would have been unimaginable just a few months ago.

Details of the candidates’ May fundraising, filed Friday in reports to the Federal Election Commission, came a day after Obama announced he would become the first major party candidate to forgo public financing in the general election. McCain has said he will accept the public funds, which will limit him to spending about $85 million from September until Election Day in November.

McCain raised $21 million in May and ended the month with $31.6 million in the bank. Of Obama’s cash on hand, $10 million is available only for the general election, leaving him with about $33 million to use between now and the party conventions in late summer. Obama reported debts of $304,000; McCain had debts of $1.3 million.

Obama’s decision to forgo public funds permits him to use leftover primary money in the general election. McCain cannot.

Clinton, who bowed out of the Democratic contest on June 7, reported a $22.5 million debt at the end of May, more than half of which came from personal loans to her presidential campaign. The former first lady lent her campaign nearly $2.2 million during the month, bringing her total personal investment in the campaign to $12.175 million. She had $3.4 million cash on hand left for primary spending. She also had more than $23 million for the general election, money her campaign cannot use to pay off her debts.

Clinton campaigned actively through the last Democratic primaries on June 3 before succumbing to Obama and is expected to have even greater debt at the end of this month. In a call to donors on Thursday, she said she would concentrate on paying off money owed to vendors, not her personal loans.

Obama reported spending $26.6 million in May. His heaviest spending was on advertising — he spent more than $4 million buying time for television commercials. Clinton reported total disbursements of $19.2 million for the month.

The two Democrats traded primary victories during the month but Obama continued to build his delegate advantage. He secured the nomination June 3, winning that day’s Montana primary but losing to Clinton in South Dakota.

Obama’s decision to forgo public money in the general election gives greater significance to his efforts to capitalize on Clinton’s support for the general election. Her donors would be a rich vein to tap.

First, however, Clinton needs substantial help retiring her debt. Many of her loyal donors have already contributed the maximum to her campaign, so she needs some new sources of money. That’s where Obama comes in — his donors help her out, her donors help him.

“It’s far more productive for Obama to have Hillary 100 percent focused and engaged on campaigning and raising money for him in the fall rather than having to do fundraisers at the same time to retire her debt,” said Hassan Nemazee, a Clinton national finance chairman.

“It would clearly make life easier for those of us in the Clinton world who would like to help Senator Obama raise the types of moneys that are necessary from the Clinton world to be in a position to point out, ‘Look what Senator Obama has done for Senator Clinton.”‘

Clinton and Obama will meet with her top fundraisers next Thursday in Washington, then both will campaign together Friday.

Obama said he is expecting McCain to have significant help from the Republican Party and from outside groups.

So far, though, few conservative outside groups have stepped into the presidential election and those that have have spent little money. In a news conference Friday, Obama defended his decision to go outside the public financing system.

“There are a lot of outside groups that are potentially going to be going after us hard,” he said. He also pointed out that McCain advisers have made a point of featuring the RNC’s financial advantage.

“So you know, this isn’t speculative on my part,” he said. “I think it’s something that we’ve seen in the past and it’s something that we continue to be concerned about.”
 
[q]Pelosi's "justifications" for the FISA "compromise"
salon.com, June 22


[TIME Magazine, June 20:] Letting the PAA expire was a risk—the Administration pilloried Democrats for being soft on terrorism. But Pelosi successfully parlayed it into specific improvements. For example, under Administration proposals, the telecoms would have received full retroactive immunity from lawsuits brought by civil libertarians alleging they violated the fourth amendment by complying with Administration requests to conduct wiretaps following 9/11. In negotiations with Pelosi's office, the telecoms offered a compromise: Let a judge decide if the letters they received from the Administration asking for their help show that the government was really after terrorist suspects and not innocent Americans. Pelosi's negotiators felt that was a significant concession. The California district judge who will make the decision in such cases has been sympathetic to some of the civil libertarians' claims. And an adverse decision can be appealed to the liberal Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals. The telecoms are casting it as a victory, and Pelosi's aides acknowledge the telecoms are likely to win immunity in court. But they're getting less than they would have in a Senate version of the bill, and they will hardly have a free ride once litigation and lobbying fees have been added up.

This is false from start to finish...The court most certainly does not decide if the Government letters to telecoms "show that the government was really after terrorist suspects and not innocent Americans." To the contrary, the judge is barred from examining the real reasons this spying occurred. The judge has only one role: dismiss the lawsuits as long as the Attorney General--Bush's Attorney General--claims that the spying was "designed to prevent or detect a terrorist attack." The court is barred from examining whether that's true or whether there is evidence to support that claim. It's totally irrelevant whether the Judge is favorable to "civil libertarians' claims" or not since he's required to dismiss the lawsuits the minute the Attorney General utters the magic words, and he's prohibited from inquiring as to whether the Attorney General's statements about the purpose of the spying are true. That's why Rep. Blunt dismissed the whole process as nothing more than a "formality"--because it compels the court to dismiss the lawsuits and bars it from engaging in the inquiry which [TIME] falsely assures [its] readers the judge will undertake.

As for the notion that telecoms will have "hardly had a free ride" from breaking our spying laws because they had to pays fees to lobbyists to get Congress to write an amnesty law for them, and incurred some lawyers fees in the resulting lawsuits, that's really almost too extraordinary for words. The amount of fees the telecoms incurred is less than pocket change. And in return, they are having the Congress pass a law with no purpose other than to compel dismissal of lawsuits brought against them by their customers for breaking the law. But in today's America, it's considered a real burden--an unjust plight--when put-upon high government officials such as Lewis Libby and terribly-burdened huge corporations such as AT&T have to incur some fees in order to win extraordinary government protection from consequences after they get caught deliberately and continuously breaking numerous federal laws. It's touching to see the Time Warner Corporation express such empathy for the tribulations of AT&T and Verizon through its media organs.

Finally, we have [TIME's] explanation as to why Pelosi and the House leadership did what they did:

Stonewalling the Administration and letting the surveillance powers expire could have cost the Democrats swing seats they won in 2006 as well as new ones they have a chance to steal from Republicans this November. "For any Republican-leaning district this would have been a huge issue," says a top Pelosi aide, who estimates that as many as 10 competitive races could have been affected by it...Pelosi's centrist compromise doesn't just help House Democrats in the fall. It also gives the party's presumptive nominee for President, Barack Obama, a chance to move to the center on national security. "Given the legitimate threats we face, providing effective intelligence collection tools with appropriate safeguards is too important to delay," Obama said in a statement Friday. "So I support the compromise."

The very idea that Democrats would lose elections if they didn't support this bill is false on numerous levels. They could have easily removed the issue simply by voting to extend the PAA orders for 6-9 months. More importantly, Karl Rove's central strategy in the 2006 midterm election was to use FISA and torture to depict the Democrats as being Weak on Terrorism, and the Democrats crushed the Republicans and took over both houses of Congress. Pelosi's claim that they support extremist Bush policies in order to avoid election losses in "swing districts" is dubious in the extreme--an excuse to feed to Democratic voters to justify their complicity in these matters...What the Democratic leadership is saying is quite clear: we will continue to trample on the Constitution and support endless expansions of the surveillance state because that is how we'll win in swing districts and expand our Congressional majority (Hunter at Daily Kos...has one of the clearest statements on why this bill is so abominable). The only objective of Nancy Pelosi and Steny Hoyer is to have a 50-seat majority rather than a 35-seat majority, and if enabling the Bush administration's lawbreaking and demolishing core constitutional protections can assist somewhat with that goal, then that it what they will do. That's what they are saying all but explicitly here.


Obama's support for the FISA "compromise"
salon.com, June 21

In the past 24 hours, specifically beginning with the moment Barack Obama announced that he now supports the Cheney/Rockefeller/Hoyer House bill, there have magically arisen--in places where one would never have expected to find them--all sorts of claims about why this FISA "compromise" isn't really so bad after all...Accompanying those claims are a whole array of factually false statements about the bill, deployed in service of defending Obama's indefensible--and deeply unprincipled--support for this "compromise." Numerous individuals stepped forward to assure us that there was only one small bad part of this bill--the part which immunizes lawbreaking telecoms--and since Obama says that he opposes that part, there is no basis for criticizing him for what he did.

...It is absolutely false that the only unconstitutional and destructive provision of this "compromise" bill is the telecom amnesty part. It's true that most people working to defeat the Cheney/Rockefeller bill viewed opposition to telecom amnesty as the most politically potent way to defeat the bill, but the bill's expansion of warrantless eavesdropping powers vested in the President, and its evisceration of safeguards against abuses of those powers, is at least as long-lasting and destructive as the telecom amnesty provisions. The bill legalizes many of the warrantless eavesdropping activities George Bush secretly and illegally ordered in 2001. Those warrantless eavesdropping powers violate core Fourth Amendment protections. And Barack Obama now supports all of it, and will vote it into law. Those are just facts. The ACLU specifically identifies the ways in which this bill destroys meaningful limits on the President's power to spy on our international calls and emails. Sen. Russ Feingold condemned the bill on the ground that it "fails to protect the privacy of law-abiding Americans at home" because "the government can still sweep up and keep the international communications of innocent Americans in the U.S. with no connection to suspected terrorists, with very few safeguards to protect against abuse of this power." Rep. Rush Holt--who was actually denied time to speak by bill-supporter Silvestre Reyes only to be given time by bill-opponent John Conyers--condemned the bill because it vests the power to decide who are the "bad guys" in the very people who do the spying.

This bill doesn't legalize every part of Bush's illegal warrantless eavesdropping program but it takes a large step beyond FISA towards what Bush did. There was absolutely no reason to destroy the FISA framework, which is already an extraordinarily pro-Executive instrument that vests vast eavesdropping powers in the President, in order to empower the President to spy on large parts of our international communications with no warrants at all. This was all done by invoking the scary spectre of Terrorism--"you must give up your privacy and constitutional rights to us if you want us to keep you safe"--and it is Obama's willingness to embrace that rancid framework, the defining mindset of the Bush years, that is most deserving of intense criticism here. Last night, Greg Sargent wrote that the most infuriating aspect of what Obama did here "is that since the outset of the campaign he's seemed absolutely dead serious about changing the way foreign policy is discussed and argued about in this country"; that Obama's "candidacy has long seemed to embody a conviction that Democrats can win arguments with Republicans about national security--that if Dems stick to a set of core principles, and forcefully argue for them without blinking, they can and will persuade people that, simply put, they are right and Republicans are wrong"; and that "this time, he abandoned that premise," even though "if there were ever anything that would have tested his operating premise throughout this campaign--that you can win arguments with Republicans about national security--it was this legislation..."

...Making matters worse still, what Obama did yesterday is in clear tension with an emphatic promise that he made just months ago...Obama's spokesman, Bill Burton, back in in September, vowed that Obama would "support a filibuster of any bill that includes retroactive immunity for telecommunications companies."...You can email Burton (bburton@barackobama.com) to demand that Obama comply with his commitment not just to vote against, but to filibuster, telecom amnesty. (Incidentally, Chris Dodd made an identical promise when he was running for President, prompting the support of hundreds of thousands of new contributors, and he ought to be held to his promise as well.)

...The excuse that we must sit by quietly and allow him to do these things with no opposition so that he can win is itself a corrupted and self-destructive mentality. That mindset has no end. Once he's elected, it will transform into: "It's vital that Obama keeps his majority in Congress so you have to keep quiet until after the 2010 midterms," after which it will be: "It's vital that Obama is re-elected so you have to keep quiet until after 2012," at which point the process will repeat itself from the first step. Quite plainly, those are excuses to justify mindless devotion, not genuine political strategies. Having said all of that, the other extreme--declaring that Obama is now Evil Incarnate, no better than John McCain, etc. etc.--is no better. Obama is a politician running for political office, driven by all the standard, pedestrian impulses of most other people who seek and crave political power. It's nothing more or less than that...Whether you think he is engaging in them out of justifiable political calculation or some barren quest for power doesn't much matter. Either way, no good comes from lending uncritical support to a political leader, or cheering them on when they do bad and destructive things, or using twisted rationalizations to justify their full-scale assault on your core political values. The overriding lesson of the last seven years is that political figures, more than they need anything else, need checks and limits. That is just as important to keep in mind--probably more so--when you love or revere a political leader as it is when you detest one.[/q]
 
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altogether now: nobody. knows. anything.

[q]Barack’s Bounce

The latest NEWSWEEK Poll shows the Democrat with a 15-point lead over McCain.
Michael Hirsh
Newsweek Web Exclusive
Updated: 3:37 PM ET Jun 20, 2008

Barack finally has his bounce. For weeks many political experts and pollsters have been wondering why the race between Democrat Barack Obama and Republican John McCain had stayed so tight, even after the Illinois senator wrested the nomination from Hillary Clinton. With numbers consistently showing rock-bottom approval ratings for President Bush and a large majority of Americans unhappy with the country's direction, the opposing-party candidate should, in the normal course, have attracted more disaffected voters. Now it looks as if Obama is doing just that. A new NEWSWEEK Poll shows that he has a substantial double-digit lead, 51 percent to 36 percent, over McCain among registered voters nationwide.

In the previous NEWSWEEK Poll, completed in late May when Clinton was still fighting him hard for the Democratic nomination, Obama managed no better than a 46 percent tie with McCain. But as pollster Larry Hugick points out, that may have had a lot to do with all the mutual mudslinging going on between the two Democrats. By contrast, in recent weeks Clinton has not only endorsed Obama but has made plans to campaign with him. "They were in a pitched battle, and that's going to impact things. Now that we've gotten away from that period, this is the kind of bounce they've been talking about," said Hugick.

The latest numbers on voter dissatisfaction suggest that Obama may enjoy more than one bounce. The new poll finds that only 14 percent of Americans say they are satisfied with the direction of the country. That matches the previous low point on this measure recorded in June 1992, when a brief recession contributed to Bill Clinton's victory over Bush's father, incumbent George H.W. Bush. Overall, voters see Obama as the preferred agent of "change" by a margin of 51 percent to 27 percent. Younger voters, in particular, are more likely to see Obama that way: those 18 to 39 favor the Illinois senator by 66 percent to 27 percent. The two candidates are statistically tied among older voters.

Obama's current lead also reflects the large party-identification advantage the Democrats now enjoy—55 percent of all voters call themselves Democrats or say they lean toward the party while just 36 percent call themselves Republicans or lean that way. Even as McCain seeks to gain voters by distancing himself from the unpopular Bush and emphasizing his maverick image, he is suffering from the GOP's poor reputation among many voters. Still, history provides hope for the GOP. Hugick points out that in May 1988 when the primaries ended, Democrat Michael Dukakis enjoyed a 54 percent to 38 percent lead over George H.W. Bush. But Bush wound up winning handily. "Those results should give people pause," Hugick says, saying that a substantial number of voters, about 5 percent, have also moved into the undecided column. A significant improvement in the economy, or continued advances in Iraq—an issue McCain has identified with strongly as the senator who championed the "surge" first—could alter the Republican's fortunes.

For now, however, Obama is running much stronger at this point in the race than his two most recent Democratic predecessors, Sen. John Kerry and Vice President Al Gore, who both failed in their bids to win the White House. In a July 2004 NEWSWEEK Poll, Kerry led Bush by only 6 points (51 percent to 45 percent). In June 2000, Gore was in a dead heat with Bush (45 percent to 45 percent)—which is essentially where he ended up when that razor-thin election was finally decided.

Most other national polls have shown Obama with a 4 to 5 point lead over McCain so far. Random statistical error can explain some of the difference in poll results. The NEWSWEEK survey of 1,010 adults nationwide on June 18 and 19, 2008, has a margin of error of 4 points. But the latest evidence of his gaining ground goes well beyond that margin.

Obama seems to have built his margin in part by picking up a key slice of Clinton's support, including women. Women voters in the new poll prefer him over McCain by 21 points (54 percent versus 33 percent). Defections to McCain by Hillary Clinton supporters are also down significantly since she dropped out of the race and endorsed the Obama. In the new poll, registered Democrats and Democratic leaners who supported Clinton during the primaries now favor Obama over McCain by 69 percent to 18 percent. In last month's survey, Clinton supporters backed the Illinois senator by a significantly smaller margin, 53 percent to 34 percent. Registered independents have also moved toward Obama, backing him by a 48 percent to 36 percent margin after splitting about evenly in last month's poll.[/q]
 
That always reminds me of the countless polls conducted before the elections both federally and in the states here in Germany that have been so utterly wrong till election day. These last six years have just been so unpredictable, yet the polls were blown out of proportion time and time again.
 
I would just like to state that I unequivocally feel neutral towards both candidates and have some degree of contempt towards supporters, I think I can maintain this attitude until the election.
 
There was an interesting article in the Washington Post a few days that said almost 9 in 10 Republicans support McCain, while not quite 8 in 10 Democrats support Obama. I don't think that means that much, but interesting nonetheless. It also said that almost 1/4 of Clinton supporters currently support McCain.

Also, their current poll puts Obama up 48 to 42. Their poll at around this time four years ago put Kerry up 49 to 45.

:shrug:
 
To me, head to head polls at this point in time don't mean diddly-squat.


What matters more are the polls that judge the public's mood...i.e. Is the country on the right or wrong track? Are you better or worse off than 4 years ago? etc. Those to me are a better read to determine which way people are leaning.
 
There was an interesting article in the Washington Post a few days that said almost 9 in 10 Republicans support McCain, while not quite 8 in 10 Democrats support Obama.

And what were those Republican numbers a few months ago when Rush, Coulter, and so many others were saying they would vote for Hillary if McCain got the nom?

My point is time is needed for some to get over their "hurt feelings".
 
altogether now: nobody. knows. anything.

[q]Barack’s Bounce

The latest NEWSWEEK Poll shows the Democrat with a 15-point lead over McCain.
Michael Hirsh
Newsweek Web Exclusive
Updated: 3:37 PM ET Jun 20, 2008

Barack finally has his bounce. For weeks many political experts and pollsters have been wondering why the race between Democrat Barack Obama and Republican John McCain had stayed so tight, even after the Illinois senator wrested the nomination from Hillary Clinton. With numbers consistently showing rock-bottom approval ratings for President Bush and a large majority of Americans unhappy with the country's direction, the opposing-party candidate should, in the normal course, have attracted more disaffected voters. Now it looks as if Obama is doing just that. A new NEWSWEEK Poll shows that he has a substantial double-digit lead, 51 percent to 36 percent, over McCain among registered voters nationwide.

In the previous NEWSWEEK Poll, completed in late May when Clinton was still fighting him hard for the Democratic nomination, Obama managed no better than a 46 percent tie with McCain. But as pollster Larry Hugick points out, that may have had a lot to do with all the mutual mudslinging going on between the two Democrats. By contrast, in recent weeks Clinton has not only endorsed Obama but has made plans to campaign with him. "They were in a pitched battle, and that's going to impact things. Now that we've gotten away from that period, this is the kind of bounce they've been talking about," said Hugick.

The latest numbers on voter dissatisfaction suggest that Obama may enjoy more than one bounce. The new poll finds that only 14 percent of Americans say they are satisfied with the direction of the country. That matches the previous low point on this measure recorded in June 1992, when a brief recession contributed to Bill Clinton's victory over Bush's father, incumbent George H.W. Bush. Overall, voters see Obama as the preferred agent of "change" by a margin of 51 percent to 27 percent. Younger voters, in particular, are more likely to see Obama that way: those 18 to 39 favor the Illinois senator by 66 percent to 27 percent. The two candidates are statistically tied among older voters.

Obama's current lead also reflects the large party-identification advantage the Democrats now enjoy—55 percent of all voters call themselves Democrats or say they lean toward the party while just 36 percent call themselves Republicans or lean that way. Even as McCain seeks to gain voters by distancing himself from the unpopular Bush and emphasizing his maverick image, he is suffering from the GOP's poor reputation among many voters. Still, history provides hope for the GOP. Hugick points out that in May 1988 when the primaries ended, Democrat Michael Dukakis enjoyed a 54 percent to 38 percent lead over George H.W. Bush. But Bush wound up winning handily. "Those results should give people pause," Hugick says, saying that a substantial number of voters, about 5 percent, have also moved into the undecided column. A significant improvement in the economy, or continued advances in Iraq—an issue McCain has identified with strongly as the senator who championed the "surge" first—could alter the Republican's fortunes.

For now, however, Obama is running much stronger at this point in the race than his two most recent Democratic predecessors, Sen. John Kerry and Vice President Al Gore, who both failed in their bids to win the White House. In a July 2004 NEWSWEEK Poll, Kerry led Bush by only 6 points (51 percent to 45 percent). In June 2000, Gore was in a dead heat with Bush (45 percent to 45 percent)—which is essentially where he ended up when that razor-thin election was finally decided.

Most other national polls have shown Obama with a 4 to 5 point lead over McCain so far. Random statistical error can explain some of the difference in poll results. The NEWSWEEK survey of 1,010 adults nationwide on June 18 and 19, 2008, has a margin of error of 4 points. But the latest evidence of his gaining ground goes well beyond that margin.

Obama seems to have built his margin in part by picking up a key slice of Clinton's support, including women. Women voters in the new poll prefer him over McCain by 21 points (54 percent versus 33 percent). Defections to McCain by Hillary Clinton supporters are also down significantly since she dropped out of the race and endorsed the Obama. In the new poll, registered Democrats and Democratic leaners who supported Clinton during the primaries now favor Obama over McCain by 69 percent to 18 percent. In last month's survey, Clinton supporters backed the Illinois senator by a significantly smaller margin, 53 percent to 34 percent. Registered independents have also moved toward Obama, backing him by a 48 percent to 36 percent margin after splitting about evenly in last month's poll.[/q]


Actually, most people know that this Newsweek poll is far off the mark. The last time someone won by more than 15 percentage points was in 1984 when Reagan won re-election.

No polling firm is perfect, but Gallup has tended to be the most accurate over the years and has been doing polling longer than any of the other polling firms. Currently Obama is up by 3 points in the latest Gallup poll, just a percentage point above the margin of error. Gallup's final prediction of the 2004 popular vote was closer than any other polling firm.
 
Actually, most people know that this Newsweek poll is far off the mark. The last time someone won by more than 15 percentage points was in 1984 when Reagan won re-election.

No polling firm is perfect, but Gallup has tended to be the most accurate over the years and has been doing polling longer than any of the other polling firms. Currently Obama is up by 3 points in the latest Gallup poll, just a percentage point above the margin of error. Gallup's final prediction of the 2004 popular vote was closer than any other polling firm.




you still don't know anything. no one knows anything. it's only fools who wish they knew more than they did who are swallowing every sensationalistic storyline about a perceived horse race.

Newsweek had them tied in May. Gallup currently has Obama up 50 to 44.

but what matters, at this stage in the game, is not the national polls, nor even so much the polls in the swing states.

what matters, as U2democrat has accurately pointed out, is the overall feeling towards about the current direction of the country, and that's at it's lowest since the end of the Carter administration. also, 55% now identify as Democrats whereas only 36% identify as Republicans, and you can bet that a large portion of that 55% are young voters. so the future for the GOP is ever darkening. it seems that war, hate, and pandering to the willfully ignorant will only get you so far.
 
To me, head to head polls at this point in time don't mean diddly-squat.


What matters more are the polls that judge the public's mood...i.e. Is the country on the right or wrong track? Are you better or worse off than 4 years ago? etc. Those to me are a better read to determine which way people are leaning.

Reagan asked that question against Carter (reelection in 1980)

Dole dare not ask it in 1996, Clinton probably did (again it was a reelection)


If 2000 were a reelection, than the answer was easy, we were much better off after 8 years of Clinton.


I just don't think this question applies the same way when it is not a reelection.

Obama has a lot of "unknowns".
When late deciders choose, they tend to go more with the known entity. You may recall this is what happened in the Dem primaries.
 
The evolution of John McCain - Jun. 23, 2008

Fortune Magazine is running a profile on John McCain titled, "The evolution of John McCain." McCain's chief advisor, Charlie Black, is interviewed in the piece. Below is a choice quote from Black on why he thinks another terrorist attack on US soil would help McCain win the presidency.

On national security McCain wins. We saw how that might play out early in the campaign, when one good scare, one timely reminder of the chaos lurking in the world, probably saved McCain in New Hampshire, a state he had to win to save his candidacy - this according to McCain's chief strategist, Charlie Black. The assassination of Benazir Bhutto in December was an "unfortunate event," says Black. "But his knowledge and ability to talk about it reemphasized that this is the guy who's ready to be Commander-in-Chief. And it helped us." As would, Black concedes with startling candor after we raise the issue, another terrorist attack on U.S. soil. "Certainly it would be a big advantage to him," says Black.
 
NY Sun

WASHINGTON — While this year's presidential campaign has been marked by historic firsts, the nominations of senators McCain and Obama will renew one surprising trend: For the fifth time in the last 35 years, America will have a lefty in the White House.

Both major party candidates are southpaws, contributing to a largely unexplained phenomenon that has vexed researchers and historians — and drawn notice from a federal judge destined for the Supreme Court. Though left-handers comprise just 10% of the population, they are dominating presidential politics.

Their recent success transcends ideology. Since 1974, presidents Ford, Reagan, George H.W. Bush, and Clinton have all favored their left hands, while President Carter and the current President Bush are righties. The trait is also not exclusive to winning candidates: Vice President Gore is left-handed, as are past presidential contenders Robert Dole, John Edwards, Bill Bradley, and Ross Perot. A prominent New Yorker who flirted with a White House bid, Mayor Bloomberg, is a lefty.

Researchers who have studied handedness have found links to genetics and to brain function, but there is no prevailing theory to explain the plethora of left-handed commanders in chief in recent decades.

Yet the trend is more than a statistical anomaly, a professor of neurology and psychiatry at the University of California Los Angeles School of Medicine, Daniel Geschwind, said.

"It's definitely not an accident. The chance is less than one in a thousand," he said.

Before 1974, just two presidents were known definitively to be left-handed: James Garfield and Harry Truman.

Studies have shown that whereas righties favor the left hemisphere of their brain, which controls language, left-handers are more likely to have bilateral brain function, which could allow them to visualize problems more broadly and with more complexity. A higher percentage of mathematicians and scientists are left-handed, and the same is true for artists.

Bilateral brain function could relate to the social and interactive skills needed to be successful in politics, but not enough research has been done, Dr. Geschwind said.

Left-handedness also has proved a distinct advantage in certain sports, including tennis and baseball, where southpaws are prized both in pitching and batting.

At the same time, studies have suggested an increased prevalence of schizophrenia, autism, and bipolar disorder among left-handers.

Twins are more likely to be left-handed, research shows, and handedness has tended to run in families, although that was not the case for the elder Mr. Bush, a lefty, and his son George W., a righty.

A scientist at the National Cancer Institute, Amar Klar, has found another, more novel trait that may distinguish left-handers from right-handers: hair growth. "Handedness is related to the way the hair spins on the back of your head," he said in an interview.

His research shows that the whorl for right-handers curls clockwise in 92% of cases. In left-handers, the distribution is random, with half exhibiting a clockwise whorl and the other half spinning counterclockwise. Mr. Klar said he could spot a counterclockwise whorl from seeing Mr. McCain and Mr. Clinton on television and looking at the way they appear to comb their hair.

Researchers have long debated why left-handers have succeeded as a distinct minority group in a society dominated by right-handers. "People like to think there's something wrong with left-handers," a professor of psychology at University College London who has written a book on handedness, Christopher McManus, said.

Yet the percentage of left-handed people across the population has remained stable at between 8% and 10%, a statistic that stands in contrast to other animal species and argues in favor of certain advantages to being left-handed. "Something is keeping 10% of the population there," he said.

One theory to explain the success of left-handers in politics is that, at an early age, they recognize that they are different in a fundamental way from most of their peers, said Melissa Roth, the author of "The Left Stuff: How the Left-Handed Have Survived and Thrived in a Right Handed World."

"Their difference might be treated as a positive or a negative, a 'creative' asset or a failure to adapt, but either way they are aware that they are 'special,' and that's a trait psychologists find in many leaders," Ms. Roth said.

Still, some contend that the phenomenon of left-handed presidents is no more than a blip. An associate justice of the Supreme Court, Samuel Alito, even offered that argument — and drew criticism for doing so — in dissenting from a ruling that overturned a murder conviction of a black man who had been tried before an all-white jury. Justice Alito, then a member of the 3rd U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals, took issue with a majority opinion that said "an amateur with a calculator" could have figured out the appropriate percentage of black jurors in the county where the case was tried.

"Although only about 10 percent of the population is left-handed, left-handers have won five of the last six presidential elections," Judge Alito wrote. "Our 'amateur with a calculator' would conclude that 'there is little chance of randomly selecting' left-handers in five out of six presidential elections. But does it follow that the voters cast their ballots based on whether a candidate was right- or left-handed?"

The judge did not mention that in at least two of those elections — 1992 and 1996 — the voters did not have much of a choice: As in the coming election, the leading candidates were all left-handed.
 
Fortune magazine has parallel interviews about the economy with John McCain and Barack Obama in the current issue, and the PR email they sent me highlights their answers to this question:

What do you see as the gravest long-term threat to the U.S. economy?

Obama: If we don't get a handle on our energy policy, it is possible that the kinds of trends we've seen over the last year will just continue. Demand is clearly outstripping supply. It's not a problem we can drill our way out of. It can be a drag on our economy for a very long time unless we take steps to innovate and invest in the research and development that's required to find alternative fuels. I think it's very important for the federal government to have a role in that process.

McCain: Well, I would think that the absolute gravest threat is the struggle that we're in against Islamic extremism, which can affect, if they prevail, our very existence. Another successful attack on the United States of America could have devastating consequences.

I guess he still hasn't learned a thing about the economy.

LAME.
 
(Reuters) McCain disagrees with adviser on reported comment

2 hours, 11 minutes ago

Republican presidential candidate John McCain said on Monday he disagreed with a reported comment by political adviser Charlie Black that a September 11-type attack before the November election would benefit McCain.

"If he said that -- and I do not know the context -- I strenuously disagree," McCain told reporters at a news conference in Fresno.

Fortune Magazine said Black, in discussing how national security is McCain's strong suit, had said when asked about another terrorist attack on U.S. soil that, "Certainly it would be a big advantage to him."

McCain, asked about the magazine article at the news conference, did not sound familiar with the article.

"I cannot imagine why he would say it. It's not true," McCain said, adding that he has worked hard since the September 11 attack to prevent another such attack.

Black is one of McCain's most trusted political advisers.
 
Black is one of McCain's most trusted political advisers.





Black, interviewed by reporters as he stood outside McCain's fundraiser, said: "I deeply regret the comments. They were inappropriate. I recognize that John McCain has devoted his entire adult life to protecting his country and placing its security before every other consideration."

Mr Black is also distancing himself from the remarks
 
:scratch:

Saying a terrorist attack would hurt our economy is scaring people?

Uh, no-saying it is the gravest long term threat to our economy is scaring people. Contrasted to Sen Obama's answer, it's rather obvious. Vote for me so there won't be another terrorist attack so those Islamic extremists won't make gas 10 dollars a gallon. Nothing to do with our energy policy-no, not at all.
 
Lynn Sweet: Obama at Florida fund-raiser says GOP will go after him because he is black. Pool report.



At a fund-raiser in Jacksonville, Fl., presumptive Democratic nominee Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) said he expects Republicans to inject race into the campaign:

“The choice is clear. Most of all we can choose between hope and fear. It is going to be very difficult for Republicans to run on their stewardship of the economy or their outstanding foreign policy. We know what kind of campaign they’re going to run. They’re going to try to make you afraid. They’re going to try to make you afraid of me. He’s young and inexperienced and he’s got a funny name. And did I mention he’s black?"

---------

Disgraceful.

First off, this kind of nonsense will surely backfire on him. Saying stuff like this makes him appear as the victim, not a strong leader. Second, he himself denounces the so-called fearmongering that conservatives do, yet here he is doing the same thing. Notice how he clumps youth and inexperience, which are legitimate concerns about him, in with race. This is deliberate. He wants everyone to think that any attack directed at him is racially motivated- that it's impossible to say bad things about him without being a racist. Also, just like with the San Francisco "bitter" remarks, I've only been able to find audio of this- no video. This makes twice now. When the cameras are not around, we see who Obama really is and what he really thinks.

Have we heard Senator McCain say a peep about race in this campaign? No.

Playing the race card? Obama.
 
Lynn Sweet: Obama at Florida fund-raiser says GOP will go after him because he is black. Pool report.



At a fund-raiser in Jacksonville, Fl., presumptive Democratic nominee Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) said he expects Republicans to inject race into the campaign:

“The choice is clear. Most of all we can choose between hope and fear. It is going to be very difficult for Republicans to run on their stewardship of the economy or their outstanding foreign policy. We know what kind of campaign they’re going to run. They’re going to try to make you afraid. They’re going to try to make you afraid of me. He’s young and inexperienced and he’s got a funny name. And did I mention he’s black?"

---------

Disgraceful.

First off, this kind of nonsense will surely backfire on him. Saying stuff like this makes him appear as the victim, not a strong leader. Second, he himself denounces the so-called fearmongering that conservatives do, yet here he is doing the same thing. Notice how he clumps youth and inexperience, which are legitimate concerns about him, in with race. This is deliberate. He wants everyone to think that any attack directed at him is racially motivated- that it's impossible to say bad things about him without being a racist. Also, just like with the San Francisco "bitter" remarks, I've only been able to find audio of this- no video. This makes twice now. When the cameras are not around, we see who Obama really is and what he really thinks.

Have we heard Senator McCain say a peep about race in this campaign? No.

Playing the race card? Obama.

He said Republicans, not McCain. The Republicans have already started this type of campaign. I get about 2 or 3 emails a week, who knows how many actual republicans or conservative leaning folks are getting.
 
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