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Old 07-02-2008, 07:14 PM   #361
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Originally Posted by Irvine511 View Post
if you're only going to rely on one polling company to get your info, then you're going to be woefully misinformed.

in mid-September 2004, Gallup showed a 13 point lead for GWB over Kerry. the Gallup poll was wrong in 1948 as well as in 1976. the point is not that Gallup is bad, but that Gallup isn't alone.

to claim that only one poll is always trustworthy, and that others are not, is foolish.

but if we want to look at Gallup, they support one of my main contentions: Obama is winning, big, in the Latino community.
I never said Gallup was perfect, only that its been more accurate than any other polling company and has been at it longer than any other polling company. I also never said that one polling company should be relied on. Gallup does not do state polls. I also posted another good polling website
RealClearPolitics - RealClearPolitics Poll Averages .

As for the Hispanic voters, remember this little nugget from July 2004:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn...2004Jul21.html

Quote:
By Richard Morin and Dan Balz
Washington Post Staff Writers
Thursday, July 22, 2004; Page A01

At a time when Bush and Kerry are running about even among all registered voters, Kerry enjoys a 2 to 1 advantage over Bush among Latino registered voters. Hispanics give Bush lower approval ratings than the overall population does, and the poll shows that the bulk of the Latino community continues to identify with the Democratic Party.
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Old 07-02-2008, 09:58 PM   #362
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and thus, we come to my earlier conclusion, which remains fully confirmed: it's early July, and nobody. knows. anything.
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Old 07-02-2008, 10:26 PM   #363
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as expected, McCain flip-flops and starts to kick the gays:

[q]McCain Officially Endorses California Marriage Ban

By Kerry Eleveld
An Advocate.com exclusive posted July 2, 2008

John McCain’s position on California’s marriage amendment has officially switched from supporting the voters’ right to define marriage as they see fit to endorsing efforts to prohibit same-sex marriage by amending the state’s constitution, according to a statement by the Log Cabin Republicans.

ProtectMarriage.com, the group leading the charge to constitutionally ban gay marriage in California via a ballot measure, published the following statement from the McCain campaign on its website last Thursday: “I support the efforts of the people of California to recognize marriage as a unique institution between a man and a woman, just as we did in my home state of Arizona. I do not believe judges should be making these decisions.” The wording varies from the campaign’s original statement following the state supreme court’s May decision to legalize gay marriage, which asserted that McCain supported “the right of the people of California to recognize marriage as a unique institution sanctioning the union between a man and a woman…”

Conservative organizations such the Christian Broadcasting Network wasted no time hailing the new statement as an endorsement of the antimarriage amendment. But until Tuesday, Log Cabin representatives said the campaign itself had neither confirmed nor denied that the Arizona senator had in fact changed his position from neutrality to active support.

A statement released Tuesday by the Log Cabin Republicans read, “Late last week, the group pushing California’s antimarriage constitutional amendment released an e-mail from a McCain staffer saying the senator backed the amendment. We now have confirmation that this represents the senator’s view.”

Log Cabin president Patrick Sammon asserted in the statement that supporting the amendment is inconsistent with McCain’s belief in federalism. “Unfortunately, his position on this amendment hurts gay and lesbian families. We obviously disagree with Senator McCain on this issue and do not believe he should have interjected himself into this state issue,” Sammon said in the release. “Backing California’s ban sends the wrong signal to the independents who will decide this election because it creates the impression that he’s pandering to social conservative leaders.” McCain held a closed meeting in Ohio late last week with social conservative leaders, around the time the new statement appeared on ProtectMarriage.com.

Sammon, who has met several times with McCain’s campaign staff and once with the senator himself, declined to discuss the nature of those meetings or whether the senator had indicated what his official stance on California’s ballot measure would be.

Senator McCain’s campaign did not return phone calls for this article. His stance on other marriage ballot measures -- such as Florida’s or one that just qualified for the November ballot in his home state of Arizona -- remains unclear. [/q]



i wonder what his first wife's position is on this?
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Old 07-03-2008, 02:14 AM   #364
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What I find annoying about both Obama and McCain is how they're both beginning to jump through the usual hoops in order to win. They both at one time came across to me as a breath of fresh air. . .and now, well, the air has long been stale with McCain and it's getting a little tepid with Obama too.

Is this really what one has to do to become president?
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Old 07-03-2008, 02:32 AM   #365
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Yes, and it will only get worse, the demographic hump of boomers will wield influence for a good while to come.
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Old 07-03-2008, 03:37 AM   #366
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During a Senate vote Wednesday, Obama dragged Lieberman by the hand to a far corner of the Senate chamber and engaged in what appeared to reporters in the gallery as an intense, three-minute conversation.

While it was unclear what the two were discussing, the body language suggested that Obama was trying to convince Lieberman of something and his stance appeared slightly intimidating.

Using forceful, but not angry, hand gestures, Obama literally backed up Lieberman against the wall, leaned in very close at times, and appeared to be trying to dominate the conversation, as the two talked over each other in a few instances.

Still, Obama and Lieberman seemed to be trying to keep the back-and-forth congenial as they both patted each other on the back during and after the exchange.

Afterwards, Obama smiled and pointed up at reporters peering over the edge of the press gallery for a better glimpse of their interaction.

Obama loyalists were quick to express their frustration with Lieberman's decision and warned that if he continues to take a lead role in attacking Obama it could complicate his professional relationship with the Caucus.

Obama should pick on someone his own size. (Obama is 6' 2")

How tall is Joe Lieberman? *

* A. His stature shrinks each time he opens his mouth.
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Old 07-03-2008, 03:50 AM   #367
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Originally Posted by maycocksean View Post
What I find annoying about both Obama and McCain is how they're both beginning to jump through the usual hoops in order to win.
Obama seems to have his base locked in, 35 and under, African Americans, among others so he is going after a portion of the Evangelicals. If he can take away 10-15 % that have been GOP voters, that will be a very good gain. And he also is going after the Blue-collar working class, 2nd amendment, types. Obama is perceived left, so he is moving right.

McCain's concern is that the GOP base still is not locked in. He is perceived moderate, so he is moving right.
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Old 07-03-2008, 08:37 AM   #368
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Quote:
Originally Posted by deep View Post
Obama should pick on someone his own size. (Obama is 6' 2")

How tall is Joe Lieberman? *

* A. His stature shrinks each time he opens his mouth.



Deep, aren't you posting the same hearsay conjecture piece that you often criticize people of...
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Old 07-03-2008, 08:54 AM   #369
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McCain's concern is that the GOP base still is not locked in. He is perceived moderate, so he is moving right.

so, clearly, we have more gay bashing to look forward to.

as i pointed out earlier, big McCain staff shake up yesterday. and the Rove boys are taking over the campaign.

i think many of us have been delighted that these were our two candidates and that we'd get a genuinely thoughtful discussion of the issues throughout the campaign. it's a vastly better match up than, say, Giuliani/Clinton, which would have brought out the absolute worst in us.

so i think it's sad to see that we're going to all start tumbling downhill. it does seem, though, that the Obama campaign has anticipated this and have attempted to lay the groundwork to frame any attacks on Obama as tantamount to racism.

we'll see if it works.
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Old 07-03-2008, 10:13 AM   #370
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Originally Posted by Irvine511 View Post
so, clearly, we have more gay bashing to look forward to.
That's a dumb thing to say. What makes you say this?
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Old 07-03-2008, 10:22 AM   #371
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That's a dumb thing to say. What makes you say this?




[q]McCain Officially Endorses California Marriage Ban

By Kerry Eleveld
An Advocate.com exclusive posted July 2, 2008

John McCain’s position on California’s marriage amendment has officially switched from supporting the voters’ right to define marriage as they see fit to endorsing efforts to prohibit same-sex marriage by amending the state’s constitution, according to a statement by the Log Cabin Republicans.

ProtectMarriage.com, the group leading the charge to constitutionally ban gay marriage in California via a ballot measure, published the following statement from the McCain campaign on its website last Thursday: “I support the efforts of the people of California to recognize marriage as a unique institution between a man and a woman, just as we did in my home state of Arizona. I do not believe judges should be making these decisions.” The wording varies from the campaign’s original statement following the state supreme court’s May decision to legalize gay marriage, which asserted that McCain supported “the right of the people of California to recognize marriage as a unique institution sanctioning the union between a man and a woman…”

Conservative organizations such the Christian Broadcasting Network wasted no time hailing the new statement as an endorsement of the antimarriage amendment. But until Tuesday, Log Cabin representatives said the campaign itself had neither confirmed nor denied that the Arizona senator had in fact changed his position from neutrality to active support.

A statement released Tuesday by the Log Cabin Republicans read, “Late last week, the group pushing California’s antimarriage constitutional amendment released an e-mail from a McCain staffer saying the senator backed the amendment. We now have confirmation that this represents the senator’s view.”

Log Cabin president Patrick Sammon asserted in the statement that supporting the amendment is inconsistent with McCain’s belief in federalism. “Unfortunately, his position on this amendment hurts gay and lesbian families. We obviously disagree with Senator McCain on this issue and do not believe he should have interjected himself into this state issue,” Sammon said in the release. “Backing California’s ban sends the wrong signal to the independents who will decide this election because it creates the impression that he’s pandering to social conservative leaders.” McCain held a closed meeting in Ohio late last week with social conservative leaders, around the time the new statement appeared on ProtectMarriage.com.

Sammon, who has met several times with McCain’s campaign staff and once with the senator himself, declined to discuss the nature of those meetings or whether the senator had indicated what his official stance on California’s ballot measure would be.

Senator McCain’s campaign did not return phone calls for this article. His stance on other marriage ballot measures -- such as Florida’s or one that just qualified for the November ballot in his home state of Arizona -- remains unclear. [/q]




sadly, kicking gays is something that gets the Republican "base" to get excited about a candidate. it worked in 2004. i expect to see more of this.
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Old 07-03-2008, 10:47 AM   #372
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Quote:
Originally Posted by deep View Post
Obama should pick on someone his own size. (Obama is 6' 2")

How tall is Joe Lieberman? *

* A. His stature shrinks each time he opens his mouth.


[q]Lieberman Favs Shellacked

Running as an independent after losing the Democratic primary in 2006, Connecticut Senator Joe Lieberman did his best to avoid irritating the Democratic base in order to win at least some of their votes in November. Now, having so publicly backed John McCain, those who didn't abandon Lieberman that year are moving away from him, a Quinnipiac University poll shows.

The survey, conducted 6/26-29, polled 2,515 registered voters in the Nutmeg State for a margin of error of +/- 2%. And according to those respondents, the state's junior Senator has just a 45% approval rating, while 43% disapprove. That includes just 26% of Democrats saying they like the way Lieberman is handling his job, while 62% disapprove.

That's the lowest job approval rating Lieberman has ever had in the Quinnipiac poll, down from a high of 80% who said they approved of his job performance in September, 2000, as he was running for Vice President on Al Gore's ticket. His rating has dropped seven points since the last survey, in late March, while his disapproval ratings have gone up eight points.

Connecticut gave John Kerry a ten-point win in 2004, though neither of the campaigns put any significant effort into the state. And while John McCain's campaign has hinted that the state might be in play come November, few strategists actually think the state will deliver anything but a big win for Barack Obama.

So, will Lieberman continue running as an independent when he's next up, in 2012? If the Connecticut Senator continues to back McCain and goes so far as to speak at the Republican National Convention, a la Georgia Senator Zell Miller in 2004, Democrats may be less interested in his service as chairman of the Senate Homeland Security and Government Affairs Committee, especially if the party picks up seats in November.

One thing is sure: A bigger Democratic majority that devalues Lieberman's vote as a quasi-Republican would mean left-leaning bloggers, who spearheaded the move to oust Lieberman in 2006, will put significant pressure on Senate Democrats to elevate someone new to the post of chairman.
[/q]
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Old 07-03-2008, 02:26 PM   #373
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Deep, aren't you posting the same hearsay conjecture piece that you often criticize people of...
are you serious ?
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Old 07-03-2008, 05:36 PM   #374
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Quote:
Obama to 'Refine' Iraq Withdrawal Plans
Illinois Senator Had Pledged to Withdraw Troops From Iraq in 16 Months if Elected
By SUNLEN MILLER and TEDDY DAVIS

July 3, 2008 —

Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill., said Thursday that he will "continue to refine" his plan to withdraw all U.S. combat troops from Iraq in 16 months when he travels to the war-torn country later this month to meet with American military commanders.

"I've always said that the pace of withdrawal would be dictated by the safety and security of our troops and the need to maintain stability. That assessment has not changed," said Obama. "And when I go to Iraq and have a chance to talk to some of the commanders on the ground, I'm sure I'll have more information and will continue to refine my policies."

Obama's openness to adjust his 16-month withdrawal plan appears to be somewhat at odds with the stance he took during ABC News' April 16 debate in Philadelphia. At the time, Obama seemed to stand by his campaign manager's pledge to have troops out of Iraq in 16 months.

On a March 7 conference call with reporters, Obama campaign manager David Plouffe emphatically said Obama has been "crystal clear with the American people that if and when he is elected president, we will be out of Iraq in -- as he said, the time frame would be about 16 months at the most where you withdraw troops. There should be no confusion about that with absolute clarity."

At the April 16 debate, ABC News' Charlie Gibson asked Obama about his campaign manager's unambiguous pledge.

Obama seemed to stand by Plouffe's words, saying, "the commander-in-chief sets the mission, Charlie." The Illinois Democrat later gave himself some wiggle room "with respect to tactics." But he also indicated in his answer that such deference on tactics would only come once he has given U.S. commanders "a new mission."

Obama's Thursday comments, which he made at a press availability in Fargo, N.D., are also at odds with the Iraq plan that he currently has on his campaign Web site.
I have posted that I was 53% leaning to voting for Obama a fews weeks back but that I was at about 55% leaning McCain lately.
Now those margins are narrowing and may flip again.


I am finally starting to get this change thing with Obama.
(sorry, for being a slow learner, Forgive me, Let live me.)

It means he can change anytime he wants.

He has gone from Obama outsider 'progressive" to Obama "Clintonist" triangulater in less than thirty days.

Soon we will have the opportunity to vote McCain or McCain lite?

He has asked you to believe in change.

And he is delivering.
We may be able to vote for the 6' 2" McCain.
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Old 07-03-2008, 05:57 PM   #375
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Obama's evolving stance on Iraq? His softening of anti-NAFTA rhetoric? His support of the second amendment in DC? His rejection of public campaign financing?

It's almost Change I Can Believe In. And all in the course of about 30 days. Imagine all the "nuance" we can squeeze out of him in 4 years !
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