US 08 Presidential Campaign General Discussion Thread #8

[Strongbow]

These national polls don't matter.

What matters is that Obama/Biden is ahead in New Mexico, 47.3 to 43.

What matters is that Obama/Biden is ahead in Pennsylvania, 47.4 to 42.4.

What matters is that Obama/Biden is ahead in Michigan, 46.0 to 41.7.

What matters is that Obama/Biden is ahead in Colorado, albeit by the slimmest of margins.

If all of this holds true, they win the election, even without Ohio, Virginia, or Florida. And the McCain/Palin lead in Ohio is less than one point right now, and it's a deadlock in Virginia.

McCain/Palin have a steeper hill to climb in terms of the electoral college.

The Republican ticket naturally has a steeper climb since they have held the office of President the past two terms. Since World War II, no party has won a 3rd consecutive term in the White House with the exception of the Republicans 3 consecutive terms with Reagan and Bush Sr.

Yet, despite that and all the other uphill battles the Republicans face, the election is very close, but with McCain/Palin now ahead of Obama by 3 percentage points in the latest national gallup poll with only 58 days to go before election day. Plus, its the Democrats that actually have to pick up red states in order to win. If McCain/Palin just keeps Nevada, Colorado, Ohio, Florida, and Virginia, they will win the election.

 

[TheEdge U2JT]

The Republican ticket naturally has a steeper climb since they have held the office of President the past two terms. Since World War II, no party has won a 3rd consecutive term in the White House with the exception of the Republicans 3 consecutive terms with Reagan and Bush Sr.

Yet, despite that and all the other uphill battles the Republicans face, the election is very close, but with McCain/Palin now ahead of Obama by 3 percentage points in the latest national gallup poll with only 58 days to go before election day. Plus, its the Democrats that actually have to pick up red states in order to win. If McCain/Palin just keeps Nevada, Colorado, Ohio, Florida, and Virginia, they will win the election.

When these listed battleground state polls were taken needs to be considered:

NM 8/26
Mich 8/21
Penn 8/26
Colo 8/26

All polls pre-Palin. With the reactions seen in the national polls, I'm sure there will be a positive McCain effect in these keys states.

 

[Strongbow]

When these listed battleground state polls were taken needs to be considered:

NM 8/26
Mich 8/21
Penn 8/26
Colo 8/26

All polls pre-Palin. With the reactions seen in the national polls, I'm sure there will be a positive McCain effect in these keys states.

Thats true, in fact there are few if any post convention state polls yet. Will probably start to see some towards the end of this coming week.

 

[namkcuR]

Pennsylvania and Michigan will probably remain in Obama's pocket. I don't see them going anywhere.

I put my money on New Mexico staying in Obama's pocket, what with their Democratic governor and large(44% I think) Hispanic population.

Colorado will be big, I think. Obama has ever so slight a lead there right now. I want Colorado bad. Obama gets Colorado, he doesn't have to worry about Ohio.

I live in Ohio. It's virtually tied here right now. McCain's lead is less than one point. There is a difference in Ohio now compared to 2004 - we have a Democratic governor now. The local news reported yesterday that he is campaigning hard core for Obama. Having the support of the governor matters - we didn't have it in 2004. Still, Ohio will be close.

And who knows what will happen with Virginia.

 

[anitram]

It will not just come down to independent voters.

But to voter turn out. Right now, regardless of how excited the GOP is about Palin, Obama still has a substantial lead in his followers' excitement levels, nevermind the increased voter registration, nevermind the African American turnout which will be enormous, and nevermind the iffy college campus turnout which has the potential to be huge.

Obama has the better ground game, more offices, and more people involved. The question is, will they be able to pull it off on election night.

As for Ohio, a lot will depend on how many new voters they can get to the polls early in October. Because of the slightly peculiar early voting rules there, that alone could end up deciding this thing in the end if they are extremely aggressive about pursuing this group.

 

[Strongbow]

It will not just come down to independent voters.

But to voter turn out. Right now, regardless of how excited the GOP is about Palin, Obama still has a substantial lead in his followers' excitement levels, nevermind the increased voter registration, nevermind the African American turnout which will be enormous, and nevermind the iffy college campus turnout which has the potential to be huge.

Well, I guess they were not excited enough to watch Obama's convention speech considering more people watched McCain and almost as many watched Sarah Palin.

Republicans support their nominee by a larger margin than Democrats support their nominee. 48% of men plan to vote for McCain versus 42% who will vote for Obama prior to the pick of Palin as VP. McCain was behind with women though, with about 49% supporting Obama and 39% supporting McCain. But that female figure will now move in McCain's direction now that he has Palin on the ticket, the question is how much will it move in his direction.

 

[anitram]

I hope you keep thinking that the Obama people are not as energized as we think. That sure worked wonders for Hillary out in Iowa.

 

[Diemen]

But he has numbers, anitram, NUMBERS!

 

[TheEdge U2JT]

But he has numbers, anitram, NUMBERS!

Falling number D! FALLING NUMBERS!

It wont hurt to admit it, your guy is falling....well, it probably does hurt. That why you wont admit it.

 

[Diemen]

As I and many others have said on this board on numerous occasions, polls are meaningless at this point. Sure, Obama is down a few points right now. Doesn't mean a thing. Something could happen next week to change that. For or against his favor.

And sometimes 2 polls taken at the same time come to different conclusions. My conclusion? They're not all that accurate and shouldn't be given much weight.

 

[phillyfan26]

As I and many others have said on this board on numerous occasions, polls are meaningless at this point. Sure, Obama is down a few points right now. Doesn't mean a thing. Something could happen next week to change that. For or against his favor.

And sometimes 2 polls taken at the same time come to different conclusions. My conclusion? They're not all that accurate and shouldn't be given much weight.

Agreed. The voter registration stats are much more telling, especially since it's actual stats and not just samples like these polls.

 

[TheEdge U2JT]

As I and many others have said on this board on numerous occasions, polls are meaningless at this point. Sure, Obama is down a few points right now. Doesn't mean a thing. Something could happen next week to change that. For or against his favor.

And sometimes 2 polls taken at the same time come to different conclusions. My conclusion? They're not all that accurate and shouldn't be given much weight.

So which is it D???

One post you are saying, :"But he has numbers, anitram, NUMBERS

Now it is polls are meaningless. You are talking our of both sides of your mouth in this issue on posts just 30 minutes apart. I guess it all depends on how it shapes up for Obama. If his numbers are up....it is in the bag. Look look, see...Obama leads!!!! Yeah!!!!

If he falls, the numbers are meaningless and blah blah blah.

You crack me up!

 

[anitram]

Wow you obviously don't get sarcasm?

 

[TheEdge U2JT]

Wow you obviously don't get sarcasm?

Yeah, sure, right!

 

[deep]

I hope you keep thinking that the Obama people are not as energized as we think. That sure worked wonders for Hillary out in Iowa.

Busloads of college kids from out of state can and did win cauci.



It takes registered voters going to the polls to win elections.

Remove cauci - and only count registered voters that voted.

Hillary is the nom.

No cauci in November.

 

[melon]

It takes registered voters going to the polls to win elections.

Remove cauci - and only count registered voters that voted.

Hillary is the nom.

No cauci in November.

Frankly, caucuses should be banned.

 

[deep]

They are ripe with fraud.

 

[anitram]

I think they are strange, but worse than that, they can be coercive in a sense.

That said, everyone knew that was the system, so if you chose to play it by ignoring those states, then you should be lambasted for running a poorly thought out campaign.

 

[melon]

They are ripe with fraud.

More than anything, though, they are undemocratic.

I've said it before, but I'll say it again. We should have a nationwide runoff election, instead of partisan primaries and caucuses. Let the two candidates that voting public prefers the most run in the final election.

As it stands, even primaries can be flooded with voters from the other party trying to influence the election, particularly if you're in a state where one party has a caucus and the other has a primary.

 

[martha]

Yeah, sure, right!

It might be a good idea to calm down, and then get to know the posters in here before jumping down their throats. Maybe reading a few more threads before posting would be a good idea.

 

[deep]

I think they are strange, but worse than that, they can be coercive in a sense.

That said, everyone knew that was the system, so if you chose to play it by ignoring those states, then you should be lambasted for running a poorly thought out campaign.

( I have said and I was only partly joking, that at the cauci
I would be partying with the Obama girls and not the Hillary blue hairs )


there is a term in baseball called

small ball


if you are the weaker team
and you can't swing for the fences and hit home runs

you concentrate on the small things
walks, singles, stolen bases, errors and hope that you will eek out a victory

it can and does happen
but the weaker team advances



( I really don't know shit about baseball, but I think I got this small ball concept mostly? right )

 

[anitram]

( I really don't know shit about baseball, but I think I got this small ball concept mostly? right )

What prevents the stronger team

from employing the same strategy?

 

[WildHoneyAlways]

there is a term in baseball called

small ball


if you are the weaker team
and you can't swing for the fences and hit home rums

you concentrate on the small things
walks, singles, stolen bases, errors and hope that you will eek out a victory

it can and does happen
but the weaker team advances



( I really don't know shit about baseball, but I think I got this small ball concept mostly? right )

Playing small ball has nothing to do with being a weaker team. In fact, teams that live and die by the home run aren't often successful consistently. Small ball teams are good, solid teams.
/baseball

 

[No spoken words]

( I have said and I was only partly joking, that at the cauci
I would be partying with the Obama girls and not the Hillary blue hairs )


there is a term in baseball called

small ball


if you are the weaker team
and you can't swing for the fences and hit home rums

you concentrate on the small things
walks, singles, stolen bases, errors and hope that you will eek out a victory

it can and does happen
but the weaker team advances



( I really don't know shit about baseball, but I think I got this small ball concept mostly? right )

I love this post. It's almost accurate.

 

[deep]

More than anything, though, they are undemocratic.

yes, Hillary won the election in Texas, she got the most votes from the voters that went to the polls on primary election day.

but because of a weird caucus thing, where people that voted had a chance to come back at night and caucus - for few hours, Obama got awarded more delegates. Working families, with children (Latinos) were less likely to be able to caucus.

So Texas, Florida and Michigan three of the largest states went for Hillary and they were not properly allocated in the delegate totals to represent the will of the people that took time to vote.



The process was very undeomocratic.

 

[deep]

I love this post. It's almost accurate.

I did say I don't know shit about baseball

but looks like my hunch

was not way off the mark

In the sport of baseball, small-ball is an informal and colloquial term for an offensive strategy in which the batting team emphasizes placing runners on base and then advancing them into position to score a run in a deliberate, methodical way. This strategy places a high value on individual runs and attempts to score them without requiring extra base hits, or sometimes without base hits at all, instead using bases on balls, stolen bases, sacrifice bunt or sacrifice fly balls, the hit-and-run play, and aggressive baserunning. A commonly used term for a run produced playing small-ball is a "manufactured run." This style of play is more often found in National League game situations than in the American League due in large part to the absence of the designated hitter in the National League

 

[phillyfan26]

( I have said and I was only partly joking, that at the cauci
I would be partying with the Obama girls and not the Hillary blue hairs )


there is a term in baseball called

small ball


if you are the weaker team
and you can't swing for the fences and hit home runs

you concentrate on the small things
walks, singles, stolen bases, errors and hope that you will eek out a victory

it can and does happen
but the weaker team advances



( I really don't know shit about baseball, but I think I got this small ball concept mostly? right )

The best teams do both.

Oh, and pitching.

 

[Diemen]

So which is it D???

One post you are saying, :"But he has numbers, anitram, NUMBERS

Now it is polls are meaningless. You are talking our of both sides of your mouth in this issue on posts just 30 minutes apart. I guess it all depends on how it shapes up for Obama. If his numbers are up....it is in the bag. Look look, see...Obama leads!!!! Yeah!!!!

If he falls, the numbers are meaningless and blah blah blah.

You crack me up!

My initial post went right over your head, apparently. My "he has numbers!" post was completely sarcastic. Did you think I was actually siding with Strongbow?

 

[phillyfan26]

So which is it D???

One post you are saying, :"But he has numbers, anitram, NUMBERS

Now it is polls are meaningless. You are talking our of both sides of your mouth in this issue on posts just 30 minutes apart. I guess it all depends on how it shapes up for Obama. If his numbers are up....it is in the bag. Look look, see...Obama leads!!!! Yeah!!!!

If he falls, the numbers are meaningless and blah blah blah.

You crack me up!

Actually, he was being sarcastic with the "numbers" thing.

As with any new thing you get into, it takes a while to get the flow of it. Especially with sarcasm and who employs it and when.

 

[No spoken words]

I did say I don't know shit about baseball

but looks like my hunch

was not way off the mark

You were......in the ballpark.