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Old 09-07-2008, 10:00 PM   #196
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Originally Posted by Strongbow View Post
The African American vote is unlikely to win you states like Ohio and Pennsylvania as Obama found out in the Primaries. Clinton crushed Obama in those states.

So are you saying that Obama will lose because white people in those states won't vote for him?

That's what you seem to imply. The implication, of course, being that in states like Ohio & PA, non-AA people who voted for Clinton are not going to vote for Obama---for, if we are to assume that the majority (yes, "majority," not "all") of Clinton voters have no issue with color and stick with party to vote Obama in the election, then you don't really have an argument--he'd have a very nice voting bloc. You make it sound like Obama's only supporters in those states were (are) black, and that the whites who voted Clinton won't show support.
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Old 09-07-2008, 10:04 PM   #197
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Originally Posted by anitram View Post
. That is to say nothing of the group that is the biggest X factor - college students. If they can replicate Iowa across college campuses, this election will be over early that evening. Unfortunately, having to rely on this unreliable group is not ideal.

Going to the polls on a Tuesday by yourself is not very exciting.

If they could schedule some kind of large gathering where people could get together and shout

"Yes We Can"
"Yes We Can"
"Yes We Can"

and get their votes counted
then we might have something.
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Old 09-07-2008, 10:07 PM   #198
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Only semi-election related, but this is just now appearing on Drudge:

MSNBC drops Keith Olbermann and Chris Matthews from anchor chair... David Gregory will anchor news coverage of the coming debates and election night.... Developing...

Viewer complaints of obvious bias, perhaps? Who knows, but I'm sure Olbermann isn't happy.

Carry on, while I celebrate.
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Old 09-07-2008, 10:08 PM   #199
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I'm beginning to think you're almost as fixated with Olbermann as Olbermann is.
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Old 09-07-2008, 10:08 PM   #200
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Quote:
Originally Posted by deep View Post
Going to the polls on a Tuesday by yourself is not very exciting.

If they could schedule some kind of large gathering where people could get together and shout

"Yes We Can"
"Yes We Can"
"Yes We Can"

and get their votes counted
then we might have something.
Hey, I voted by absentee ballot in college so I could go out with other people and stuff.
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Old 09-07-2008, 10:12 PM   #201
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Originally Posted by 2861U2 View Post
Only semi-election related, but this is just now appearing on Drudge:

MSNBC drops Keith Olbermann and Chris Matthews from anchor chair... David Gregory will anchor news coverage of the coming debates and election night.... Developing...

Viewer complaints of obvious bias, perhaps? Who knows, but I'm sure Olbermann isn't happy.

Carry on, while I celebrate.

Don't over think it.

It is only business

did you see the ratings?


they were at the very bottom.

I am sure with this change
their ratings will improve.
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Old 09-07-2008, 10:16 PM   #202
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The cell phone situation was not as widespread in 2004. I, for one, had a phone line back then, and I don't think I'm unique. Party registration isn't necessarily indicative, but all those thousands of people who actually dropped their Republican affiliation - well they went to the trouble, seems to me they aren't McCain voting. You think that the huge voter registration is going to net no new votes? I think that's insanity and nonsense. The Obama people are not counting on anywhere near 1:1 voting, but they don't need it. A modest increase would be enough in some states. As for AA voters - in Florida alone there were over 600,000 registered AA voters who did not bother voting in 2004. Add to that the tens of thousands registered this time. Add to that the huge energy of the AA community and ask yourself how scary would it be if even a third of these voters turned out on November 4?
If you focus on the states that actually matter, the voting registration thing becomes even less relevant. Sure, it may yield a victory, but the first sign that the compaigns are looking at are still the polls, not the registration figures.

The Republicans won Florida by 400,000 votes in 2004 and polling has shown McCain ahead for most of the year there.

The Republicans won Virginia by nearly 300,000 votes in 2004. This year polling has been close with McCain only ahead sometimes by a very small margin. But with McCain being the only veteran in the race and Virginia home to the largest percentage of veterans in the country, the Obama/Biden team having not military experience of any kind, and the fact that the Republicans have not lost Virginia since 1964, I think McCain will win this state.

The Republicans only won Ohio by 120,000 votes in 2004. Polls this year are very close.

The Republicans won Colorado by 100,000 votes in 2004. Earlier this year it appeared the Democrats had a lock on Colorado. But then McCain started to do well in the polls there coming out ahead in several of them. There has yet to be any post convention polls posted from this state. While Obama and the Democrats will get a boost from having the convention there, I think Sarah Palin will help McCain a lot in Colorado.

The Republicans only won Nevada by 20,000 votes in 2004. Polls have been close this year, but have trended in McCain's direction.


If McCain/Palin win the above 5 states all of which went for Bush in 2004, they will win the election.

Its unlikely Obama/Biden will be able to win if they lose any of the Blue states from 2004.

The Republicans come out of the two back to back conventions with the media discussing Sarah Palin all day, and Barack Obama's Mile High Stadium show seems like a distant memory. At this point, McCain is definitely in a better position than he was before the conventions.

Despite nearly everything being stacked against a Republican victory in 2008, 58 days out, the polls still show that McCain could still win on November 4.
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Old 09-07-2008, 10:16 PM   #203
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Quote:
Originally Posted by deep View Post
Don't over think it.

It is only business

did you see the ratings?


they were at the very bottom.

I am sure with this change
their ratings will improve.
I'd prefer to see Brokaw, but oh well.
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Old 09-07-2008, 10:16 PM   #204
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Hey, I voted by absentee ballot in college so I could go out with other people and stuff.
I hope you we're

fired up and ready to go


when you dropped it in the letter box.
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Old 09-07-2008, 10:30 PM   #205
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Originally Posted by Strongbow View Post

The Republicans only won Ohio by 120,000 votes in 2004. Polls this year are very close.
OH is just close enough for me to go down there and drive those crazy Obama kids to the polls the day of. How many can you squeeze in a 2-door vehicle - we'll see.

My gut says that Obama will keep all of Kerry's states. Really NH is the only iffy one (I don't believe Michigan or Pennsylvania are going to be lost) but Bob Barr just got on the ballot there and he'll siphon enough independent libertarian votes in that state to hurt McCain. That's 252.

Iowa is obviously an Obama pick up. +7

New Mexico is another pick up, there's a comfortable lead in the polls and there is Bill Richardson who will park his ass in the state for 2 months. +5

That gives Obama 264.

My gut says that Colorado will go for Obama. That alone wins him the election.

I feel like Florida and Nevada will go to McCain, Virginia to Obama and Ohio depends on whether I show up with my fuel efficient vehicle.
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Old 09-07-2008, 10:30 PM   #206
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So are you saying that Obama will lose because white people in those states won't vote for him?

That's what you seem to imply. The implication, of course, being that in states like Ohio & PA, non-AA people who voted for Clinton are not going to vote for Obama---for, if we are to assume that the majority (yes, "majority," not "all") of Clinton voters have no issue with color and stick with party to vote Obama in the election, then you don't really have an argument--he'd have a very nice voting bloc. You make it sound like Obama's only supporters in those states were (are) black, and that the whites who voted Clinton won't show support.
I'm sure many of them will support Obama, the question is will enough of them support Obama for him to win both states. Take a look at West Virginia, the last time the Democrats won the White House without winning West Virginia was in 1916. Many of the voters, there are blue collar Democrats, Reagan Democrats, are similar to many voters in Ohio and Western Pennsylvania. Obama has already conceeded that this state will likely go stay red this fall.
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Old 09-07-2008, 10:38 PM   #207
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OH is just close enough for me to go down there and drive those crazy Obama kids to the polls the day of. How many can you squeeze in a 2-door vehicle - we'll see.

My gut says that Obama will keep all of Kerry's states. Really NH is the only iffy one (I don't believe Michigan or Pennsylvania are going to be lost) but Bob Barr just got on the ballot there and he'll siphon enough independent libertarian votes in that state to hurt McCain. That's 252.

Iowa is obviously an Obama pick up. +7

New Mexico is another pick up, there's a comfortable lead in the polls and there is Bill Richardson who will park his ass in the state for 2 months. +5

That gives Obama 264.

My gut says that Colorado will go for Obama. That alone wins him the election.

I feel like Florida and Nevada will go to McCain, Virginia to Obama and Ohio depends on whether I show up with my fuel efficient vehicle.
Colorado could win the election for Obama, but looking at the recent polls and McCain's selection of Palin, I think Colorado is now a toss up state. I think Ohio is still a toss up state, but with Virginia, the history of the past 44 years of elections there, plus McCain's veteran status, I think its going to stay red, although by a small margin.

But if McCain takes New Hampshire, and keeps Ohio, Virginia, Florida, and Nevada with the Democrats picking Colorado, New Mexico and Iowa, then we have the 269 to 269 tie senerio where the new incoming congress must vote to decide the election. But victory in that process is still based on the electoral college with each states representitives acting as the voters. So even though the Democrats have a majority and will likely have a majority in the new congress, having to many representives in Blue states, could mean the Republicans could still come out on top despite the fact that they are not the majority in congress.
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Old 09-07-2008, 10:43 PM   #208
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1. Women make up more than 50% of the population.

2. Women vote in higher proportion than men.

3. Some polls have Obama up by as much as 15% among women.

4. Even if that deficit is magically erased by Palin to say 7-8%, still does not bode well for McCain.

5. That is to say nothing of the group that is the biggest X factor - college students. If they can replicate Iowa across college campuses, this election will be over early that evening. Unfortunately, having to rely on this unreliable group is not ideal.
Well, can you think of another person McCain could have picked besides Palin that would do no harm to the base while at the same time pick up a significant number of women?
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Old 09-07-2008, 10:56 PM   #209
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I'm just wondering, does anyone here actually volunteer for either of the campaigns on a consistent basis?


Just curious. I want to know how active FYMers are beyond this message board...which is why I've barely been posting during the election and won't be posting much through Nov. 4 (I'm an intern).
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Old 09-07-2008, 11:06 PM   #210
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Well, can you think of another person McCain could have picked besides Palin that would do no harm to the base while at the same time pick up a significant number of women?
I am glad I'm not him because I think all of his choices were terrible.

And I don't think that Palin is a magic bullet among women that they are hoping she is. Will she pick up some women? Sure. Enough women to make a tangible difference given how far behind he is with that voting bloc? No.

If Palin didn't have extreme views on birth control, abortion (even in cases of rape & incest) and creationism, she'd pick up way more women because she is not inherently unlikeable. But these are really really bad positions to have when you are seeking MODERATES. How many moderates do you know who believe we shouldn't have the birth control pill available and that their daughters should give birth to rapists' babies? Palin is way right on these issues.
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