US 08 Presidential Campaign General Discussion Thread #7

[anitram]

A special Democracy Corps and Greenberg Quinlan Rosner survey of Hispanic voters in Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico and Nevada shows that Barack Obama holds a commanding lead among Latinos in the southwest. The Democratic nominee leads John McCain by 45 points and has a chance to perform better among Hispanic voters than any Democratic presidential candidate in recent history.

In the four southwestern states, he is running an average 10 points ahead of John Kerry’s share of the vote four years ago, while McCain receives only a bare majority of Bush’s 2004 Latino vote.

Should have picked a Hispanic woman?

 

[deep]

Should have picked a Hispanic woman?

If she didn't work out

she could have been deported.

ignorance about race​

 

[U2democrat]

OK this made me laugh.

 

[Se7en]

orange was definitely best for contrast with the background.

day-to-day, i'd go with the grey/blue on the far left.

 

[david]

YouTube - Gov. Sarah Palin on the Wooten scandal and VP

an awesome intervew with sarah palin where she says (at the 2:40 mark) that she doesn't even know what a VP does.

 

[deep]

She is right

a V P does nothing

except stay alive

in case the President is incapacitated.

It is in the Constitution.

(and Preside over the Senate in case of a 50/50 deadlock.)


The only portfolio the V P has is what the President assigns


ask Dan Quayle.


when the President is considered a "light weight" like W and Obama
the V P takes on more significance.

 

[deep]

orange was definitely best for contrast with the background.

that explains it

 

[Dreadsox]

It is interesting how context matters....

 

[anitram]

She is right

a V P does nothing

except stay alive

Not according to Dick Cheney.

 

[deep]

The only portfolio the V P has is what the President assigns


ask Dan Quayle.


when the President is considered a "light weight" like W and Obama

the V P takes on more significance.

 

[anitram]

I'm sorry but Cheney didn't "take on more significance" - he declared himself a separate arm of the government.

But keep at it with the silly overblown comparisons.

 

[namkcuR]

Just doing some electoral college math...using delegate numbers from 2004.

Assuming Obama/Biden gets the following:

California 55
Oregon 7
Washington 11
Illinois 21
Wisconsin 10
Minnesota 9
Maine 4
New Hampshire 4
Vermont 3
Massachusetts 12
Rhode Island 4
Connecticut 7
New Jersey 15
New York 31
Delaware 3
Maryland 10
Hawaii 4
Michigan 17
Iowa 7
DC 3
_____
They would have 237 delegates.

Assuming McCain/Palin gets the following:

Kentucky 8
Tennessee 11
North Carolina 15
South Carolina 8
West Virginia 5
Georgia 15
Alabama 9
Mississippi 6
Lousiana 9
Arkansas 6
Missouri 11
Texas 34
Oklahoma 7
Kansas 6
Nebraska 5
South Dakota 3
North Dakota 3
Montana 3
Wyoming 3
Colorado 9
Utah 5
Arizona 10
New Mexico 5
Nevada 5
Idaho 4
Alaska 3
Indiana 11
____
They would have 219 delegates.

The score would be 237-219 with Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Florida still in play.

Ohio = 20 delegates
Pennsylvania = 21 delegates
Virginia = 13 delegates
Florida = 27 delegates

Obama/Biden has a sizable lead in Florida at the moment, a lesser lead in Pennsylvania, Virginia apparently is nearly tied, and Ohio is always a very narrow margin of victory regardless of who wins.

Mathematically, if Obama/Biden wins any two of those four states, they break the big 270 mark and win. All they have to do is split them. Considering they are leading two of them right now and more or less tied in the other two, this seems like a rather likely scenario.

Of course, you could say that Michigan isn't a sure thing for Obama/Biden(even though it went for Gore in 2000 and Kerry in 2004), and moving its 17 delegates to McCain/Palin's column would effectively reverse the score and make it so THEY only need to split those last four to win, but I think Michigan is more likely to go Obama/Biden's way.

You could also say that Indiana might go Obama/Biden's way with its 11 delegates, in which case Florida's 27 delegates alone would put Obama/Biden over the top.

Just some thoughts.

 

[anitram]

I don't think they have a lead in Florida, but they have a substantial lead in PA. I think PA is in the Dem column. That brings them to 258.

New Mexico looks blue to me. Colorado is a definite possible pick up, and Nevada may look better than Virginia depending on the day.

 

[deep]

I'm sorry but Cheney didn't "take on more significance" - he declared himself a separate arm of the government.

But keep at it with the silly overblown comparisons.

The V P selection took on more significance in 2000
only because W was considered not to be as qualified as Gore

There was no concerns with Bush 1, that is why he chose Quayle in 1988 and easily won.


Gore chose Lieberman because the concern was the tainting of the Monica Lewinsky affair.

Lieberman was the first Democrat to take th the Senate floor to loudly and unequivocally condemn Bill Clinton over the affair.

Again, the only portfolio Cheney has is what the President Bush assigns or permits, there are no other duties spelled out than what I previously listed.


do you think Obama chose Biden because he supported the "dumb war" in 2003?

or because he is one of the most senior Senators that will give him the needed gravitas?

 

[anitram]

or because he is one of the most senior Senators that will give him the needed gravitas?

I think he chose him for many reasons.

This is one of them. But an even bigger reason in my mind is the populist profile that Biden has in the community, his Catholic roots to working class Pennsylvania and other similar voters is of great value. He appeals to a group of voters that aren't automatic Obama fans.

Why do you think McCain chose Palin?

 

[deep]

Why do you think McCain chose Palin?

Simpatico?
should not be dismissed.

If one looks into Palin, they will see that she has a good chunk of the GOP establishment (in Alaska) against her.
She also has appointed Democrats, Independents and she is only able to move legislation by getting support from Democrats.

What Senator does that remind you of?

 

[anitram]

Considering the Alaskan sources all say she was not vetted

and McCain met her once - do you think he would be this aware of her record?

Or maybe she's, you know, a woman? And that alone tipped the scales.

 

[deep]

Or maybe she's, you know, a woman? And that alone tipped the scales.

one thing we all know

Johnny MacDaddy likes the ladies

 

[Irvine511]

i would love to hear how McCain thinks she'll govern.

 

[Strongbow]

I think he chose him for many reasons.

This is one of them. But an even bigger reason in my mind is the populist profile that Biden has in the community, his Catholic roots to working class Pennsylvania and other similar voters is of great value. He appeals to a group of voters that aren't automatic Obama fans.

Why do you think McCain chose Palin?

The funny thing is that Biden is on record as saying that Obama is not qualified to be President.

 

[phillyfan26]

If "the only qualified candidate" has to be one who admittedly doesn't understand the economy, doesn't understand Social Security, and thinks that no American is uninsured ... then I guess I don't want "the only qualified candidate."

 

[Strongbow]

Obama/Biden has a sizable lead in Florida at the moment,.

Really? Check this out:

RealClearPolitics - Election 2008 - Florida: McCain vs. Obama

Virginia apparently is nearly tied

Thats about right.

RealClearPolitics - Election 2008 - Virginia: McCain vs. Obama

and Ohio is always a very narrow margin of victory regardless of who wins.

I wouldn't say always, but it is close at the moment.

RealClearPolitics - Election 2008 - Ohio: McCain vs. Obama

a lesser lead in Pennsylvania

Now hear is where the Democrats actually have a solid lead and it will be interesting to watch to see if Palin and the Republican convention can cut into this or flip it. Ridge would have been the better running mate to do that obviously, but Obama did show he has weaknesses in Pennsylvania that the Palin pick might impact.

RealClearPolitics - Election 2008 - Pennsylvania: McCain vs. Obama

I think Pennsylvania will be difficult though. A more likely possiblity would be for McCain to win Florida, Ohio, Virginia, and Colorado. All red states last time and states where the Democrats currently do not have any real leads.

Here is the situation in Colorado:

RealClearPolitics - Election 2008 - Colorado: McCain vs. Obama


Here is the current electoral vote situation if the election were to happen this past week:

RealClearPolitics - Electoral Map

 

[financeguy]

i would love to hear how McCain thinks she'll govern.

She is already governing. She has done more governing, in point of fact, than the other three Democratic or Republican Presidential or VP nominees.

She is governing Alaska, I believe it's a state in your country, and doing so pretty well by most accounts. A little outside the DC Beltway, which is possibly why you haven't heard of it.

Or maybe you're biased against women and dismiss their achievments.

 

[financeguy]

Or maybe she's, you know, a woman? And that alone tipped the scales.

I'm so fed up of these Republican feminists smashing the glass ceiling.

Who do they think they are?

 

[Se7en]

Republican feminists

curious.

 

[namkcuR]

Executive experience is defined as having run a state or a business, right?

A presidential campaign is a business, you know. A business of which the candidate, namely Obama or McCain, is the CEO. They're big businesses with departments for communications/speechwriting, advertising, policy, scheduling, fundraising, etc etc. Each of the departments has a director, usually chosen and appointed by the candidate him/herself. Decisions are made every day, and the biggest/most important ones are no doubt made by the head honcho - the candidate. It's a business and the candidate - Obama or McCain - is running the whole show, has the final say on everything and bears the ultimate responsibility and/or blame for everything.

Considering that this business of Obama's has raised anywhere from 265 to 340 million dollars so far this election cycle(aka since its foundation) and has in the neighborhood of 60 to 70 million dollars on hand right now, and considering it managed to fill a stadium with 84,000 people the other night to support it, and since it has the support of probably 55-60 million people nationwide, and since he has been complimented by many for how well he's run his campaign, I'd say he's doing a hell of a job running this business of his, and since this business will be nearly two years old when all is said and done, I'd say that's some valuable executive experience.

And I don't know the exact numbers for McCain, but if he's still here, I guess he's doing an ok job(though not as good as Obama) running his business too.

 

[diamond]

She is already governing. She has done more governing, in point of fact, than the other three Democratic or Republican Presidential or VP nominees.

She is governing Alaska, I believe it's a state in your country, and doing so pretty well by most accounts. A little outside the DC Beltway, which is possibly why you haven't heard of it.

Or maybe you're biased against women and dismiss their achievments.

perfectly stated.

<>

 

[Strongbow]

If "the only qualified candidate" has to be one who admittedly doesn't understand the economy, doesn't understand Social Security, and thinks that no American is uninsured ... then I guess I don't want "the only qualified candidate."

Biden is also on record as saying he would be willing to run on a McCain ticket.

 

[Strongbow]

Executive experience is defined as having run a state or a business, right?

A presidential campaign is a business, you know. A business of which the candidate, namely Obama or McCain, is the CEO. They're big businesses with departments for communications/speechwriting, advertising, policy, scheduling, fundraising, etc etc. Each of the departments has a director, usually chosen and appointed by the candidate him/herself. Decisions are made every day, and the biggest/most important ones are no doubt made by the head honcho - the candidate. It's a business and the candidate - Obama or McCain - is running the whole show, has the final say on everything and bears the ultimate responsibility and/or blame for everything.

Considering that this business of Obama's has raised anywhere from 265 to 340 million dollars so far this election cycle(aka since its foundation) and has in the neighborhood of 60 to 70 million dollars on hand right now, and considering it managed to fill a stadium with 84,000 people the other night to support it, and since it has the support of probably 55-60 million people nationwide, and since he has been complimented by many for how well he's run his campaign, I'd say he's doing a hell of a job running this business of his, and since this business will be nearly two years old when all is said and done, I'd say that's some valuable executive experience.

And I don't know the exact numbers for McCain, but if he's still here, I guess he's doing an ok job(though not as good as Obama) running his business too.

Ah, but you have already said Obama was qualified as of January 2007 or even earlier, well before he ran this campaign or produced those numbers.

 

[anitram]

Ah, but you have already said Obama was qualified as of January 2007 or even earlier, well before he ran this campaign or produced those numbers.

When did he say that?