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Old 08-05-2008, 11:12 AM   #196
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Old 08-05-2008, 12:02 PM   #197
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Irvine511 View Post
McCain still doesn't ever poll above 45%,
Sure he does. The fact that Obama hasn't gotten above 50% should worry Democrats. In a year like this, Obama should be hovering around 60%.
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Old 08-05-2008, 12:18 PM   #198
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Sure he does. The fact that Obama hasn't gotten above 50% should worry Democrats. In a year like this, Obama should be hovering around 60%.


no, he doesn't. show me once in the gallup poll where he's gone above 44%. today, Obama's back up by 3 points.

where do you get your "should be hovering around 60%" number? when was the last time a candidate got 60% of the popular vote?

and i'll continue to say that the polls are meaningless at this point.
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Old 08-05-2008, 12:26 PM   #199
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Irvine511 View Post
no, he doesn't. show me once in the gallup poll where he's gone above 44%.
The USA Today/Gallup poll had McCain up 49-45. Rasmussen has had McCain 47-46.

RealClearPolitics - Election 2008 - General Election: McCain vs. Obama

Quote:
Originally Posted by Irvine511 View Post
where do you get your "should be hovering around 60%" number? when was the last time a candidate got 60% of the popular vote?"
1972. My point is that in a tremendously Democratic year, with a candidate so (supposedly) popular and amazing as Obama, he should have an incredible lead right now. I've only seen a few polls that show him breaking 50%.

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Originally Posted by Irvine511 View Post
and i'll continue to say that the polls are meaningless at this point.
I mostly agree. However, some trends are quite interesting to look at. I just heard on the radio that Obama once led among Catholics, but now McCain is up by 15.
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Old 08-05-2008, 01:24 PM   #200
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 2861U2 View Post
The USA Today/Gallup poll had McCain up 49-45. Rasmussen has had McCain 47-46.

RealClearPolitics - Election 2008 - General Election: McCain vs. Obama

Gallup Daily: Obama Holds 4-Point Advantage


Quote:
1972. My point is that in a tremendously Democratic year, with a candidate so (supposedly) popular and amazing as Obama, he should have an incredible lead right now. I've only seen a few polls that show him breaking 50%.

i think you'd also have to admit that this is a very, very shallow understanding of how the political process works, and becomes spin for McCain.


Quote:
I mostly agree. However, some trends are quite interesting to look at. I just heard on the radio that Obama once led among Catholics, but now McCain is up by 15.
and i just read yesterday that Obama is up 10 points amongst white working class voters.

these anecdotal pieces of information aren't worth all that much except to give you a snapshot of the conversation.
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Old 08-05-2008, 01:27 PM   #201
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Irvine511 View Post
Obama has to hit back. and hard. and he did. i think this is a very good spot -- yes, it's negative, but on an issue, not on comparing
a clean, articulate black man
to
sexually available white women:
don't you think you are ginning this up a bit?


Senator Obama compared himself to Paris Hilton back on February 24, 2005.

Quote:
"Andy Warhol said we all get our 15 minutes of fame," says Barack Obama. "I've already had an hour and a half. I mean, I'm so overexposed, I'm making Paris Hilton look like a recluse."
.
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Old 08-05-2008, 01:53 PM   #202
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Quote:
Originally Posted by deep View Post
don't you think you are ginning this up a bit?


Senator Obama compared himself to Paris Hilton back on February 24, 2005.

no.

Britney and Paris are yesterday's news:

Quote:
"If you notice, since Britney started wearing clothes and behaving; Paris is out of town not bothering anybody anymore — thank God — and evidently, Lindsay Lohan has gone gay, we don't seem to have much of an issue,"
i think the unspoken messages are heard loud and clear. i work in media. i know exactly how much thought goes into the construction and presentation of images, and i know that they're designed to operate on several different levels at once and designed to subtly pull at conscious or unconscious fears.

this is how Harold Ford was beaten.



i think "presumptuous" really means "uppity." this is why there's the focus on arugala an organic tea and protein bars.

i think that the person who claims that the other is "playing the race card" is actually playing the race card.
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Old 08-05-2008, 01:59 PM   #203
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Although the national polls do give a good indication of how the election race is going, the state polls are more significant. Unfortunately, many of the advantages that McCain appeared to have in the spring in the area of state polls no longer appear to be there. Ever since Obama won the nomination, the battleground Blue states have moved solidly behind Obama, with the possible exception of Michigan and New Hampshire.

The next problem for McCain are the red battleground states of Iowa, Colorado, and New Mexico. With the 2004 Blue states locked up, Obama only needs to win these three red states to win the election. Iowa is already solid blue. Colorado was essentially solid blue until McCain came out ahead in a poll there for the first time ever, but only by 2 points. But then you have to consider that the Democrats are having their convention there and the impact that will have in the state. New Mexico previously seemed more even, but is now trending Blue.

The best chance for McCain now is to find a way to win either Colorado or New Mexico, or take a blue state like Michigan or New Hampshire. Plus, there is also the need to lock up red states like Indiana, Ohio, Florida, Virginia, Nevada, and Missouri.

Obama appears to be very well positioned unless McCain can find a way to make winning Michigan, New Hampshire, or even Pennsylvania a strong possiblity.
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Old 08-05-2008, 02:03 PM   #204
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What detailed analysis leads people to believe that Barack should have a 20 point lead over McCain? This isn't a generic Democrat vs. a generic Republican. Each candidate has their own strengths and weaknesses, and I'd be surprised if any other Democratic candidate could have done significantly better in the polls then Barack has done since June. I might as well claim Barack should be hovering around 90%. Raising expectations.
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Old 08-05-2008, 02:21 PM   #205
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One candidate would be a good 5-8 points higher, that is for sure.
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Old 08-05-2008, 02:43 PM   #206
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Irvine511 View Post

i think the unspoken messages are heard loud and clear. i work in media. i know exactly how much thought goes into the construction and presentation of images, and i know that they're designed to operate on several different levels at once and designed to subtly pull at conscious or unconscious fears.

So because you know everything

When Obama first introduced the comparison of himself to Paris Hilton
was he sending a subliminal message to lusting white women?

Is this the secret of his success?
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Old 08-05-2008, 02:58 PM   #207
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Quote:
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What detailed analysis leads people to believe that Barack should have a 20 point lead over McCain?
Three words: Right, Talk, Radio

This is how they are spinning it.
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Old 08-05-2008, 02:59 PM   #208
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Quote:
Originally Posted by deep View Post
When Obama first introduced the comparison of himself to Paris Hilton
was he sending a subliminal message to lusting white women?
You could suspect both 'messages' of carrying sexist overtones without being unreasonable, though I think it's harder to argue against that perception in the case of the McCain ad. Paris Hilton=Tiresomely Omnipresent is a less loaded association than Hilton/Spears=Wanton, Incompetent Basket Case.

I don't see the racial analogy you're suggesting at all.
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Old 08-05-2008, 03:07 PM   #209
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Quote:
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So because you know everything

When Obama first introduced the comparison of himself to Paris Hilton
was he sending a subliminal message to lusting white women?

Is this the secret of his success?


you're comparing an off-the-cuff remark to a carefully planned and executed political ad?

and when it comes to assembling images in order to tell a story, i will defer to no one in FYM (except maybe Melon).
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Old 08-05-2008, 03:27 PM   #210
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Why did Obama not refer Tiger Woods?

Why was he thinking about Paris Hilton.


I am really not serious here
I just don't buy your arguments on that ad
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