Okay, here's what I think you're talking about.
Support for war surges
Download today's ICM/Guardian poll in full (pdf)
Alan Travis, home affairs editor
Tuesday March 25, 2003
The Guardian
The outbreak of war has triggered a big surge in support for military action against Iraq among British voters, according to the latest Guardian/ICM tracker poll.
The 15-point swing in public opinion recorded by the ICM survey means that there is now a clear majority, 54%, who back military action, after a sharp rise from 38% just a week ago. The results represent a sudden and widespread shift in public mood in Britain.
Opposition to the war has slumped in the past seven days from 44% to only 30% of the public, the lowest level since the Guardian began tracking public opinion on this issue last August.
An ICM poll for the News of the World over the weekend suggests that this surge in support for military action has been accompanied by a similar revival in Tony Blair's personal ratings.
The big swing in support as British troops go into action demonstrates the highly volatile nature of public opinion on Iraq.
But it must be open to question whether such a level of support can be sustained if there are serious military reverses and a consequent daily diet of harrowing television pictures.
The 30% opposed to the war still represents a substantial minority of the public and is particularly found among the young, Liberal Democrat supporters, and those living in the south-east of England.
The only age range in which opposition to the war is above 50% is the 18- to 24 group.
Nevertheless, the outright opposition of 30% of the adult population is still the highest level of opposition recorded by Gallup at the start of any war since 1950, when 31% said they opposed British troops going to fight in Korea. Fewer than one in four opposed the Falklands war, the 1991 Gulf war or Britain's involvement in Kosovo in 1999.
The swing in public opinion behind military action has taken place almost uniformly across all types of voters.
Among men, 61% now believe that military action is justified and only 28% disapprove. Even among women, only a minority now believe that the war is not justified. The number supporting military action has risen by 18 points to 47%, with only 33% now saying they disapprove.
It is a similar picture when the detailed results are broken down by political party. Conservative supporters are the staunchest backers of military action, with 66% approval of the war and only 22% opposed.
Among Labour supporters, backing for military action reaches 58% approval and 29% opposition.
Only among the Liberal Democrats is the pattern slightly different. A week ago nearly two-thirds of Lib Dem voters said they were opposed to the war, but that figure has fallen to 41% and a larger proportion of Liberal Democrat supporters, 45%, now say they back military action.
One factor in the rise in support for war has been people making up their mind as the outbreak of hostilities got closer. The 23% who said they were "don't knows" in January have fallen to 15% now, and it appears that most of them have become pro-war.
But the rise in support for military action is on a much larger scale than can be accounted for by people simply making up their minds as war approached. It may be that a significant proportion of voters who said they were opposed to the war but would support it if there were a second UN resolution have decided to swing behind military action now that British troops have gone into action.
? ICM interviewed a random sample of 1,008 adults aged 18 and over by telephone from March 21-23, 2003. Interviews have been conducted across the country and the results have been weighted to the profile of all adults.